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    OR2 - Unit 3

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    Network Scheduling by PERT/CPM “Every modem corporation has channels of communication atong which lines, from foot to crown, reports flow up and vetoes down" 25:1. INTRODUCTION Network Scheduling is a technique used for planning and scheduling large projects in the fields of construction, maintenance, fabrication, purchasing, computer system installation, research and development designs, etc. The technique is a method of minimizing trouble spots, such as, production bottlenecks, delays and interruptions, by determining critical factors and coordinating various parts of overall job. There are two basic planning and control techniques that utilize a network to complete _a pre-determined project or schedule. These are: Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT); and the Critical Path Method (CPM). Several variations of these have also been developed, one such important variation being the Review Analysis of Multiple Projects (RAMP) which is useful for guiding the ‘activities’ of several projects at one time, 25:2, NETWORK : BASIC COMPONENTS A network is a graphic representation of a project's operations and is composed of activities and events that must be completed to reach the end objective of a project, showing the planning sequence of their accomplishments, their dependence and inter-relationships. The basic components of a network are : Activity. An activity is a task, or item of work to be done, that consumes time, effort, money or other resources, It lies between two events, called the ‘preceding” and ‘succeeding’ ones, An activity 's represented by an arrow with its head ing the sequence in which the events are to occur. Event. An event represent the start (beginning) or completion (end) of some activity and as such itconsumes no time. It has no time duration and does not consume any resources. An event is nothing but a node and is generally represented on the network by a circle, rectangle, hexagon or some other Sometric shape. An event is not complete until all the activities flowing into it are completed. Activities are identified by the numbers of their starting (lail or initial) event and ending (head, or terminal) event, An arrow (i, J) extended between two events; the tail event i represents the start of ‘he activity and the head event j, represents the completion of the activity as shown below : Activity Starting Event Completion Event Scanned with CamScanner Ny OPERATION: 764 S FESEARGy, is called a me, An event representing the joint completion of more than one, activity Tt & as sm an event represents the joint initiation of more than one aati z ian i : following three The activities can be further classified into the capi one 1. Predecessor activity. An activity which must be completed be \s predecessor activity. | An activity which started immediately after one oF more of other acti are completed is known as successor activity. | 4 3. Dummy activity. An activity which does not consume either any resource and time is kno, as dummy activity. A dummy activity is depicted by dotted line in the network diagram, Remark. A dummy activity in the network is added only to represent the given precedence i wo oF more parallel activit ionships among activities of the project and is needed when (a) two or more para ina project have same head and til evens, or (b) two or more activities have some (but not all) of thig immediate predecessor a 8 eveng yy categories : OF more other active start is known Successor activity s in common. Preceding Event Succeeding Event ‘Successor Activity ‘Succeeding Event Fig, 25.1 A dummy activity is depicted by a dotted line in the network diagram as shown above, 25:3. LOGICAL SEQUENCING All the projects consist of certain activities that can begin only after certain others are completed. In fact, the entire project may be considered as a series of activities which may begin only after another activity or activities are completed. In a network schedule, these types of relationships are called constraints and are represented by inequalities. For example, A < B will indicate that the activity A must be completed before the start of the activity B. For example, a project of laying a pipeline consists of the the activities : trenching, laying pipe. and welding of pipe. In logical sequencing, following three types of errors are most common while drawing a network diagram : |. Looping. If an activity were represented as going back in time, a closed loop would occur 3s shown in Fig. 25.2: e Fig, 25.2. Closed loop A closed loop would produce an endless cycle in computer programmes wit! b for detection or identification of the cycle. This situation ean be avoided by “checking the preceden®® relationship of the activities and by numbering them in a logical order. Thus one propery of 8 correctly constructed network diagram is that it is “non-cyclic™, Scanned with CamScanner “ty activity is introduced in order to majnta; ny Be maintain the continui events other aarti end of the project as a whole are called deg ity of the system, Such end-e ling events, Fig. 25.3. Dangling In the above network, activity D leads to dangling, avoid this dangling, 3. Dependency relationships, ‘A dummy activity is therefore introduced to When two chains of activities have a common event, wholly or partly independent of each other, a dummy activity is used to establish proper logical relationships. Given below are the 1wo cases of dependency relationships : (i) Activity C is dependent upon both A and B. (ii) Activity D is dependent upon A alone. Fig. 25.4 From the above three figures, we observe that Fig. 25.4(a) is clearly wrong since it shows D as dependent upon not only A but also & which is not desired. Fig. 25.4(6) is also wrong since A has been shown twice and thus contravenes the fundamental axioms of network that there must be one arrow for each activity. The way out to this dilema is the representa activity. Fig, 25.4(c) shows that C is dependent upon both A and B (via dummy) whereas D is dependent upon just A. ion by means of a dummy 25:4. RULES OF NETWORK CONSTRUCTION For the construction of a network, generally, the following rules are followed : 1. Each activity is represented by one and only one arrow. 2. Each activity must be identified by its starting and end node which implies that two activities should not be identified by the same completion events, and (ii) activi must be represented either by their symbols or by the corresponding ordered pair of starting-completion events. 3. Nodes are numbered to identify an activity uniquely. Tail node (starting point) should be lower than the head node (end point) of an activity. a _4. Between any pair of nodes. there should be one and only one activity; however more than one ‘tivity may emanate from and terminate to a node. HEDULING BY Pi yerwork SCI ERTICEM, 765 2. Dangling. No activity should end without being joined to the end event, If it is not $0, a } | } I Scanned with CamScanner OPERATION: 766 S FESEARC, id or bent. tween activities must follow the followin activities into it have been completed, g activil ‘on which it depen ding activities PeNdS, have heey 5. Arrows should be kept straight and not curve 6. The logical sequence (or inter-relationship) be (i) An event cannot occur until all the incoming (ii) An activity cannot start unless all the pre completed! (iii) Dummy activities should only be introduced if 8 Pals « absolutely necessary. Numbering the Events After the network is drawn ina logical sequence, every event is assigned a number. The number sequence must be such so as to reflect the flow of the network. In event numbering, the following rules should be observed : (a) Event numbers should be unique. ; (0) Event numbering should be carried out on a sequential basis from left to right, (c) The initial event which has all outgoing arrows with no incoming arrow is numbered 0 or 1, (d) The head of an arrow should always bear a number higher than the one assigned at the tail of the arrow. (©) Gaps should be left in the sequence of event numbering to accommodate subsequent inclusion of activities, if necessary. Remark. The above procedure of assigning numbers to various events of a network is known as Fulkerson's Rule, Mlustration. A television is manufactured in six steps, labelled A through F. Because of its size and complexity, the television is produced one at a time, The production control manager thinks that network scheduling techniques might be useful in planning future production. He recorded the following information = Ais the first step and precedes B and C, C precedes D and E, F follows E and D is successor of F, B follows D and precedes E, (a) Draw an activity-on-node diagram for the production manager. (6) On checking with the records, the production manager corrects his last note to read, “D is @ predecessor of F". Draw a new diagram for the revised network incorporating this new change. (c) After pondering over the network and rechecking from the records, it was found that B was really a predecessor of D rather than vice versa. Draw a revised network incorporating this ne change. (d) Draw an arrow-diagram representation of the network in part (c). How many dummy activities did you use in your network? ° Solution. (a) (i) A is the first step which precedes B and C, fi) C precedes D and £. Fig. 25.6 Scanned with CamScanner york SCHEDULING BY PERT/CPM ne «iy F follows F and D and is the succe 767 ssor of Fs Fig. 25.7 » the complete network drawing is shown in Fig. 25.9 (jr) Now, since B follows D and precedes plow ¢ Fig. 25.8 Evidently, this network contains a cycle as shown in Fig. 25.9 below : ©—-O—-0—-O—-® Fig. 25.9 (b) Revised network when D is a predecessor of F is as follows : Fig, 25.10 (c) Revised network when D is a predecessor of F and B is a predecessor of D is given below : » Dummy Activity Fig, 25.12 The events of the diagram are numbered such that their ascending order indicates the direction of SS in the project, Scanned with CamScanner Pr = OPERATIONS RESEARG}, 25:5. CONCURRENT ACTIVITIES Activities discussed so far are discrete in nature. But in practice. they Oe ts may? be _ ete, ie, they may be done in part aliowing the subsequent activities to commence before he prectiing activiy is fully completed. Activities of this kind are to be frequently encountered in Patch, production, I, fo, example, n batch of $0 spindles is to be processed on two machines, obviously it is not necessary yy process all the items of the batch on the first machine and then transfer these {0 the next machine. few items processed on the first machine may be transferred to the second machine before completion of the entire batch on the first machine. Such simultaneous of concurrent activities are to be encountered in sewage work: e.g., trenching, laying pipe, welding pipe, and back filling: all going oq simultaneously with suitable lags on construction work. Mlustration, A batch of four axles is to be processed on the following three machines in this sequence : Lathe (L). Milling (M), Grinding (G), | Instead of first working these four axles on Lathe, then on Milling and finally on Grinding in sequence, it is desired to process the first axle on the Lathe and as and when it is processed, it is taken up on Milling and the second axle on the Lathe, and so on. In other words, each of the three activities L, M and G have been quartered for the sake of concurrent operations, You are required to draw the network Solution, The dependency relationships are sorted out hereunder : Preceded by Quartered activity Preceded by” None M3 Ly, My 4 My Ly My ly Gy M, Ly G, My Gy by Gy My Gr Ly My Gs My Gy Fig. 25.13, Note. The concurrent activities so drawn are known as ladders in the network jargon. SAMPLE PROBLEMS 2501. Draw a network diagram for the following data : Activity : oA BC DE og Preceding activities : None A A BA Solution. Using the precedence relationshi G H I RE C DF G + the required network is given below : Fig. 25.14 Scanned with CamScanner work SCHEDULING BY PERT/CPNY ne jr may be noted thet a dummy a ‘The nodes of the project ress in the project. 769 ity is used to identify the activities # ind F with unique end re numbered such that their ode ascending order indicates the direction of poe 3502, In a boiler overhauling project followin A. Inspection of boiler by boiler en repaired, Collecting quotations for the 8 activities are to be performed : iginecr and preparation of list of parts to be replaced! parts to be purchased, Placing the orders and purchasing. B. c D. Dismantling of the defective parts from the botler E, Preparation of necessary instructions for repairs, F Repair of parts in the workshop, G, Cleaning of the various moumings and fittings, H, Installation of the repaired parts, |, Installation of the purchased parts, J. Inspection. K. Trial run Assuming that the work is assigned to the boiler engineer who has one boiler mechanic and one ziler atendant at his disposal, draw a network showing the precedence relationships. Solution. Looking at the list of activities, we note that activity A (inspection of boiler) is to be followed by dismantling of defective parts (D) and only after that it can be decided which parts can be repaired and which will have to be replaced. Now the repairing and purchasing can go side ty side. But the instructions for repairs may be prepared after sending the letters for quotations. Note that it becomes a partial constraint, also started after activity D. Now we assume that repairing will uke less time than purchasing. But the installation of repaired parts can be started only when the cleaning is completed. This results in the use of a dummy activity. After the installation of repaired yarts, installation of purchased parts can be taken up. This will be followed by inspection and trial un. The network showing the precedence relationships is given below Partial Constraint Fig. 25.15, The dummy activities are used to identify the activities C, H and E, G with unique end nodes, 2503. Construct the network diagram comprising activities B,C, ..» Q and N such that the following constraints are satisfied : - BoE PF C Dummy Activity Fig. 25.16 PROBLEMS and L such that the following relationships 2504, Construct the arrow diagram comprising activities A, Bs .-- are satisfied : )) A. Band C, the first activities of the project, can start simultaneously. i) A and B precede D. (ii) B precedes E, F and H, (iv) F and C precede G, () E and H precede J and J. (i) C.D, F and J precede K. (vii) K precedes L, (viii) 1. G and L are the terminal activities of the project {[Bharathidasan B.Sc. (Allied) 1995] 2505. Draw a network diagram for the following data : Task A 4 c D E é 6 Immediate predevessor : None None B B B é Abe am showing the followi 2506, Draw an Activ rrow diag 4 B a D E F G Following are the activities which are to be performe building si - 5 ists ltbeatip Pike he dosnt 2 be performed for a building site preparation, Determine J, Clear the site. 1 2, Survey and layout. 3. Rough grade. 4. Excavate for sewer. 5, Excavate for eléctrieal manholes, ~ 6, Install sewer dnd baskil. 7. Install eleetieal mato construct the boundary wall. seatear cu Scanned with CamScanner | sch are listed in the following table Fire the enw SOMEDULING BY PERTIIPN ___Deneipton Clean tobe bunte c > F Clean header and Mating heed fene Fr 6 Crean helt 4 “Draw a network diagram for the project. — 2508, X17 company has decided to redesig [athe Mm CPT) 00m electronic components, The project involves several sctivities lectronic engineering etaff must finish the design of the eamponemt. Second. he marketing programme for promoting the component must te deveined Think. 4 new aanstactring process must be designed. Fourth, advertising media mow be selected. Fifth. an initia). production run must be successfully completed. And sixth, the component must be released to the atarket ‘Activity Description of activity Finish component development = Design matketing programme ‘ Design production system 4 Select advertising media ® Initial production run ¢ Release component to market De (Garananat Dew B.A, 2008) 2510. A publisher has a contract with an author to publish a textbook. The (simplified) activities associated it: the production of the textbook are given subsequently. Develop the associated network for the project : amas Activity Activity description — os A Manvscript reading by the editor = y a ‘Sample pages prepared by the typesetter > , c Book cover design - s D Preparation of diagrams used in the book = ’ £ ‘Author's approval of sample pages Ae y r Book typesetting 8 s G ‘Author's proof reading of typeset pages e 2 “ ‘Author checks att-work > 2 1 ‘Production of printing plates aH y 4 Book production and binding Gt 2 286. CRITICAL PATH ANALYSIS ‘Tie Purpose of analysis is to find the critical path, ée., the sequence of activities with the longest uration, and w find the flout associated with each non-critical activity. ‘This helps in checking actual Hvbtess aguinst the scheduled duration of the project. To achieve this objective, we carty out the ‘PeCia} Lompututions that produce the following information : ‘2) Total duration needed for the completion of the project, (6) Categorization of the activities of the project as being critical ot non-critical, Scanned with CamScanner a Tm OPERATIONS, RESEARo, An activity in a network diagram is said to be critical, if the det yin its start will further gy, the project completion time, A non-critical activity allows some schediiate Che so that the gt time of the activity may be advanced or delayed within limits without 4 1 the completion gat of the entire project, 2 hould be k ‘To accomplish the above-mentioned objectives, the following factors should be known t prep, Project scheduling (i) Time schedule for each activity, i before which it is completed. “the time by which an activity must begin and the jn, ( arlier and latest start time as well as earlier finish and litest finish of cach activity, Gii) Float for each activity, ie, the 54 sociated with each activity. (iv) Critical activities and critical path for the network, For the purpose of calculating various times of events and activities, the following terms shat jy used in critical path calculations = . E, = Earliest occurrence time of event i L, = Latest occurrence time of event j 14, = Duration of activity (i, {) The critical path calculations are done in the following two ways + (a) Forward Pass Calculations, and (5) Backward Pass Calculations. Forward Pass Calculations. We start from the initial node 1 (event 1) with starting time of the Project as zero. Proceed through the network visiting nodes in an increasing order of node number and end at the final node of the network. At cach node, we calculate earliest start and finish times for each activity by considering F; as the earliest occurrence of node i. The method may be summarized 3 follows : Step 1. Set E, = 0; 1 = 1 Gnitial node) Step 2. Set the earliest start time for each activity that begins at node ES, = E,; for all activities (i, j) that start at node i. Step 3. Compute the earliest finish time of each activity that begins at node i by adding the earliest start time of the activity to the duration of the activity. Thus EF = ESy + ty = E+ ty Step 4. Move on to next node, say node j (j > i) and compute the earliest occurrence for node j, using 4 = max {EFy) = max {E, + 1), ns as for all immediate predecessor activities. Step 5. If j = n (final node), then the earliest finish time for the project is given by max {EF} = max (Ey. + ty) Backward Pass Calculations. We start from the final (last) node (event) n of the network proceed through the network visiting nodes in the decreasing order of node numbers and end at th initial node 7. At each node, we calculate the least finish and start times for each activity bY considering L, as the latest occurrence of node j. The method may be summarized below : Step 1. Ly = Ey for j= Step 2. Set the latest finish time of each tivity that ends at node j as Lky = Lj. Step 3. Compute the latest occurrence times of all activities ending at j by subtracting # duration of each activity from the latest finish time of the ac Scanned with CamScanner BY PERTCP) Ak SCHEDULING M a vero sup 4 Proceed backward 10 the node in the ceurrence time of node i (i < j) ye quence, that decrease j by 1. Also compute the est uy Ny (Si) = min (ty ~ ap SSOF acti gr immediate st 7 i ni sep 5 WF = 1 Cinitial node), then hy = ming Sy) = min (Ly ~ ay) an activity (i,j) he critical if it satisfies the following a Ee= ty and “o Beb-hay An activity that does not satisfy the above Critical Path, The critical activities of agns the entire network from start to Finish i Conditions is termed as non-critical, a network Constitute an uninterrupted path w is known as critical path. Flat (or Slack) of an Activity and Event The float of an activity is the amount of time by which it is possible to delay its completion time without affecting the total project completion time 1, Event float. The float (also called “slac K°) of an event is the difference between its latest time {L) and its earliest time (E). That is Event float = 1; - E; is a measure of how much later than e: tie completion of the entire project. 2. Activity float. As mentioned earlier, it is the Moat (or slack) in the activity time estimates, There are mainly three types of activity floats as discussed below : @ Total float, The total float of an activity represents the amount of time by which an activity ca be delayed without delay in the project completion date. In other words, it refers to the amount of the free time associated with an activity which can be used before, during or after the performance ‘f this activity, Total float is the positive difference between the earliest finish time and the latest {nish time, or the positive difference between the earliest start time and the latest start time of an ivity depending upon which way it is defined. ‘Thus, for each activity (i, j), the total float values are computed as follows : Total float (TFy) = Ly ~ (6; + 4) = LFy ~ EFy = (hy - 4) - & ESy. (i) Free float. Free float is that portion of the total float within which an activity can be Toripulated without affecting the float of subsequent activities. Wis computed for an ac ivity by ‘Siacting the head event slack from its total float. The free float indicates the value by which an *civly in question can be delayed without causing any delay in its immediate successor activities. Free floa values for each activity (i, #) are computed as follo : Free float (FF) = (Ej - E) ~ ty = Ey ~ (By + 4) = min. (ESj} = BFy (i Dummy Activity +O toto Fig. 25.17 o determine the minimum time of completion of the project (critic path), we compute E, and calculations as applied to Fig. 25.17 are for each of the task (i, j) of the project. The critical 3s follows = Forward calculations Node 1: Set E, = 0 Node2: Ep = E +12 = 0+ 2=20 Node}: Ex= Ei + ry = 04 23=23 Node 4: Eq = max {E) + ty) = max {0+8, 23416) = 39 Node 5: Es = max {Bj + ts) = max {20+ 19, 39+0) = 39 Node 6: Ee = max {Ej + fg} = max (39+ 18, 3940) = 57 Node 7: Ey =, may {E) + ts) = max (23424, 3944, 57+ 10) = 67 Backward calculations Node 7: Set Ly = & = 67 Node 6: Le = min {Ly ~ tay} = Ly ~ toy = 57 Node 5: bs =, min {ly ~ tg) = min (57-0, 67-4) = 57 Node 4: bg = min {Ly ~ ty} = min (57-0, 57-18) = 39 Node 3: Ly = min, (Ly ~ 4) = min (39-16, 67-24) = 23 Node 2: Ly = Ls ~ ty ~ $7 - 19 = 38 Node 1: Ly = min {bj ~ ty} = min (38-20, 23-23, 39-8} To evaluate the critical nodes, all these calculations are displayed in the flowing table : Task “Normal time __ Earliest time Latest time _ Float be (days) Start (Ej) Finish (E) Start (Li) Finish (Lj) Total Free Independent (4.2) 20 0 20 18 8 1s ° 4.3) 23 0 3 0 2 0 0 (1,4) 8 0 8 uM 9 31 3 2.5) 19 20 39 38 37 1B 0 (3.4) 16 23 39 B 0 0 0 a7 4 3 47 B 67 20 20 4,5) 0 39 39 37 57 18 0 (4, 6) 18 39 37 » 37 0 0 5.6) 0 39 39 37 3 18 18 , a 4 7” 43 63 67 mM 4 po Scanned with CamScanner 76 OPERATIONS RESEAR The above table shows that the critical nodes are for the tasks (1, 3), (3. 4). (4, 6) and (6, 7) 3 8 ib, E,=39, L,= 57 B= 20 = 38 Gig Fe bs Fig. 25.18 It is apparent from Fig. 25.18 that the critical path comprises the tasks (1. 3), (3. 4). (4, 6) and (, This path represents the shortest time to complete the entire project. 2512. A small project consists of seven activities for which the relevant data are given below ; Activity Preceding Activit Activity Duration (Days) A a 4 B = 7 c a 6 D AB 5 E AB 7 F CDE 6 G CDE 5 (Draw the network and find the project completion time, (ii) Calculate total float for each of the activities and highlight the critical path. iii) Draw the time scated diagram. ICA. Final (Nov.) 2006; Madras B.Com, 2005] Solution. (i) Using the precedence relationship among the activities, the resulting network is shown in Fig. 25.19 below : Fig. 25.19 (i) To determine the project completion time, we compute the earliest time, Ey and latest finish time, Lj, for each activity of the project. For it we proceed as follows : vard calculations Backward calculations Set E, = 0 Set Ly = E, = 20 Ey = Ey +h = 044-4 By = ama (Ey + 133. E+ by) = max(0+7, 440) = 7 20 In (Le ~ t56¢ Ly — t57) = min (20-5, 20-6) = 14 Scanned with CamScanner SCHEDULING BY Py york ERTICPM on By = max (Ey + ty By + 144) hy = by ~ tas max (046, 745) = 12 0s 1 Lay = min (Ly ~ tyye by ~ 149) = min (14-5, 14-7) = 7 Ly = ty 27-027 Ly = min (Ly = thy by ~ ti ba ~ hd max (7-4, 7-7, 1-6) = 0. Bs = max (Ey + ts. Ey + 149) max (747, 1240) = 14 + Igy = 1445 = 19 Ey = mar (Ey + 197. Ey + toy) max (1446, 1940) = 20 evaluate the critical n a To odes and total float, the above calculations are displayed in the following ule _ —aetivity — Normal time — =i a) (days) Latest time Total +h =ly float 4 7 4 3 3 6 7 o o 3 6 8 8 7 12 9 2 4 7 0 = 19 20 1 From the above table, we observe that the critical nodes (events) are : (1, 3), (3, 5) and (5, 7). Thus, we have t= Fig. 25.20 CPM is 1 -» 3» 5 7 and Project completion time is 20 days. (iii) Time scale diagram is given below : @ Ges) © feeeA (ONC nen 87) 2 14 Fig. 25.21 Scanned with CamScanner i | OPERATIONS RESEARe, PROBLEMS Fes of a certain projent. 16 20 8 0 6 DE - NE a a ® c D A FE F (a) Find the critical path and the expected time of the project. (b) Find the total and free-flost for each activity. 2514, An architect has heen awarded a contract to prepare plans for an hospital renovation. The job consis of the following activities and their estimated times : ICA. Finat (Non) som Aetteiy Description Predecessors Time (dayay a Prepare sbeichen = 2 8 Outline specifications - 1 c Prepare drawings 3 > Write specifications AB 2 E Ron off prints GD 1 F Have specification BD 3 G Assemble bid packages EF 1 (a) Draw the network diagram of the project, and (b) Indicate the critical path. ‘What is total duration of the project ? [Dethi MBA. (HCA) PT 2000) 2818. Tasks A. B.C... H. I constitute a project. The notation X < ¥ means that the task X must be finndes before ¥ can begin. With this notation : A f Gp Go #8 rom [Osmania M.B.A. 2000) 2520, Draw the network for the data given below and compute : (i) Critical path, (i) Early start and Late start times for each activity, and (iif) Total slack for each activity Activity pA B c D E F G a 1 Predecessor : - = A a c DE B KF Estimated time (weeks) ; 3 5 4 2 3 9 8 1 9 [Delhi PG Dip. in Glob. Bus. Oper. 2010] 2521. A project has the following time schedule : Activity Time in weeks Activity Time in weeks I 2 1-6 3 os 2 5-8 1 am 1 a 5 ca 4 4 4 36 8 a 3 7 5 Construct PERT network and compute : () Tol float for each activity; and (ji) Critical path and its duration. 2522, A project schedule has the followine characteristics : = _ [Karnataka M.Com. (CBCS) 2013] Activity Time Activity Time 12 4 5-6 4 1-3 1 S7 8 24 ! 8 1 jd 1 7-8 a BS 6 &10 5 “9 5 9-10 7 ( Construct PERT network. (i) Compute Tz, Ty, for each event. (ii) Find the critical path, [Delhi PG Dip, in Glob. Bus. Oper. 2011) 2523, A network consists of 9 citles. A, B, C, ». 10 fas nodes, The are length data given below represents the amount of eable to be lald for establishing telephone links between nodes. Tt is required to lay cable lines in fuch a manner that any node can connect any other node (If necessary through another node) such that the total ‘able Ind Is a minimum, Determine between what nodes the cable lines should be Inid : ace CD = 30; Ew 2 Crea DF = 225 DF = 1S: Fe 7h BH = 1S, B= 60% Gtais. GH = IS [Karnataka B.B, (Prod) 1998) Scanned with CamScanner yerwORK SCHEDULING BY PEAT/CpN 781 35:7 PROBABILITY CONSIDERATIONS IN PERT network peat ieee 80 far may be termed as deterministic, since estimated activity times aye assured Fe deeeicd values. But no recognition is given to the fact that expected activity rime is the mean of a distribution of possible values which could occur, Under i euee of uncertainty, the estimated time for each activity for PERT network is represented by a probability distribution. This probability distribution of activity time is based upon inrce different time estimates made for each activity, These are as follows 1, = the optimistic time, is the shortest possible 1, = the pessimistic time, is the longest time that time to complete the activity if all goes well " an activity could take if every thing goes wrong. the most likely time, is the estimate of the normal time an activity would take. If only one time were available, this would be it. Otherwise it is the mode of the probability distribution. ‘The range specified by the optimistic ti i we (1,) and pessimistic time (1,) estimates supposedly must enclose every possible estimate of the duration of the activity. The most likely time (1,,) estimate may ncide with the midpoint (1, +1,)/2 and may occur to its left or to its right as shown in Fig. Fig, 25.22 Keeping in view of the above-mentioned properties, it may be justified to assume that the duration of each activity may follow a Beta (8) distribution with its unimodal point occurring at f,, and its end points 1, and f,. In Beta distribution the mid-point (1, + f,)/2 is assumed to weigh half as much as the most likely point (Z,). Thus, the expected value of the activity duration can be approximated as the arithmetic mean of (1, + 1,)/2 and 21, Thus, we have $12 + lo + G/T = Uy + Aly + V6 Since almost (99%) all values of random variables fall within +3 standard deviation from the mean or fall within the range approximately 6 standard deviation in length, therefore the interval (lyf) is assumed to enclose about 6 standard deviation of a symmetric distribution. Thus, if 6 denotes the standard deviation, then 602 ty OF O= (ty - 16. The variance, therefore, is : 0° = {(t, ~ t6)/6)?- Remark. In PERT analysis, a Beta distribution is assumed because Points, and is approximately symmetr is unimodal, has non-negative end Probability of Meeting the Schedule Time PERT, it is possible to determine the probability of completing a contract on schedule. The Scheduled dates are expressed as a number of time units from the present time. Initially they may be the latest times, Tj, for each event, but after a project is started we shall know how far it has Mrogressed at any given date, and the scheduled time will be the latest time if the project is to be Sompleted on its original schedule. Scanned with CamScanner OPERATIC one IONS RESEARcy, an , - i be approximated by th The probability distribution of times for completing an event can a norma) distribution due to the central limit theorem. Thus the probability of completing the projec, by scheduled time (7,) is given by roo (2< ‘The standard normal variate (SNV) is given by, 7, - where, T, = expected completion time of the project and 6, = number of standard deviations the scheduled time lies from the expected (mean) time, ie. the standard deviation of the scheduled time, Using the cumulative norma! distribution tables (given at the end of book), the Corresponding value of the standard normal variate is read off. This will give the required probability of completing the project on scheduled time. SAMPLE PROBLEMS 2527, A project consists of eight activities with the following relevant information : nessay Immediate Estimated duration (days) : predecessor Optimistic Most Pes A = 1 1 8 = 4 c - 2 2 D A 1 1 E B 2 5 F c 2 5 G DE 3 6 H FG 1 2 (i) Draw the PERT network and find out the expected project completion time. (ii) What duration will have 95% confidence for project completion? (iii) If the average duration for activity F increases to 14 days, what will be its effect on the expected project completion time which will have 95% confidence? (For standard normal Z = 1.645, area under the standard normal curve from 0 to Z is 0:45) [Panjab M.B.A. 2007; Jodhpur M.B.A, 1997; IGNOU M.B.A. 2008] Solution, The expected time and variance of each activity is computed in table below : Activity fo bn bp 1e= (gt Ain tty)/6— [lp~ 10/5 4 1 1 7 2 1 B 1 4 7 4 1 c 2 2 8 3 1 D 1 1 1 1 0 E 2 5 4 6 4 F 2 5 8 5 1 G 3 6 1s 7 4 H 1 2 3 2 “or (@, Using the precedence relationship among the activities, the resulting network is shown Fig. 25.23 ; Scanned with CamScanner y work SCHEDULING BY PERT/CPM 780 wt Ena bya Fig, 25.23 From the above network diagram, we observe + CPM: 1345-647 je, BEG. Expected duration of the project is 19 days, The Variance of the project length is a? = 14444 + 0,108 Thus oP = 1444440108 = 9.108 or 9, = Vl 3.02. (ii) Since P(ZS 1.645) = 05 + 0.45, ie, 0.95; T-T. 2. We get 1.645, ie T, = 19 + 3.02% 1.645 = 24 days. Hence, 24 days of project completion time will have 95% confidence of completion in the scheduled time. (ii) When the average duration of activity F increases to 14, the path C—» F—> # also becomes critical. The standard deviation of new critical path is : 0, = \9.108 + 2 = 3.36 . P (z< 1.645) = 0.95 gives us T, 19 = 1.645, ie. T, = 19 + 3.36% 1.645 = 24.52 days. 336 Hence, the project completion duration of 24.52 days will have 95% confidence. 2528. A small project is composed of seven activities whose time estimates are listed in the table «5 follows ; Activity Estimated duration (weeks) 7 j Most likely _ Pessimistic 1 2 1 1 7 1 3 1 4 ? 1 4 2 2 8 2 5 I! 1 1 3 5 2 3 Ww 4 6 2 5 8 5 6 3 6 1s (@) Draw the project network. : (b) Find the expected durction and variance of each activity. What is the expected project length? (©) Catetate the variance and standard deviation of project length, What is the probability that the project will be completed ; a Scanned with CamScanner = OPERATION: 784 S RESEARy (i) at least 4 weeks earlier than expected? » (ii) no more than 4 weeks later than expected? ; (d) If the project due date is 19 weeks, what is the probability of meeting the due date? a 50 0.67 1.00 135 200 p 0.3085 0.2514 0.1587 0.0918 0.0228, [Delhi M.Com. 2006; Panjab Tech. Univ. M.I.A. 2008; Madras $4.8.4, 294, that activi Solution. (a) The problem is same as in sample problem 2527, except that activity 67 ,,, been deleted. As such the network diagram remains the same as given in Fig. 25.22 after deleting activity 67, Thus, we have . (b) CPM: 1 -» 3 — 5 —» 6, Duration of project = 17 days. Variance of project length is given by o2=1+4+4=9 or & (©) The standard normal deviate is : Due date — Expected date of completion Wariance Given : 3. + We compute @ z This implies that the probability of meeting the due date (4 weeks earlier than expected) is ; 0.0918 or 9.18%. m 21-17 (ii) z = This implies that the probability of meeting the due date (4 weeks later than expected) is : 1 = 0.0918, ie., 0.9082 or 90.82%. (d) When due date is 19 weeks, 19-17 _2 . 32 "3" 0.67 This implies that the probability of meeting the due date is : 1 -0.2514, i.e., 0.7486 or 74.96%. Alternative calculations (when values of area under standard normal curve are not given): = 1.33. wie (©) When z= Bo. fei, P(zS~ 1.33) = 05 - (1.33) = 0.5 - 0.4082 (from Normal Tables) = 0.0918 = 9.18% 21-1 4 When 3 =e 1.33, ‘The probability of meeting the due date (4 weeks later than expected) is P(ZS 1.33) = 05 + (133) = 054 0.4082 = = 0,9082 = 90.82%, .9082 (d) When the due date is 19 weeks, +. Probability of meeting the due date P(250.67) = 054+ (0.67) = 0.7486 = 74.86%, Thus the probability of not meeting the due date is 1 - 0.7486, ie., 0.2514 or 25.14%. Scanned with CamScanner HEDULING BY eTwork SC! PERT/CPM ie PRORLEMS 3529,_A small project consists of seven activi dest ~Wmedate ilecestor —T * prere _ : 2 D 3 4 ; 3 G a 5 3 . ( Draw the network, number th next most critical path, (a What project duration will have 95% confi '¢ Modes, find the critical path, the expected project completion time and the 30, The follow idence of completion? [Kerala M.Com. 2008] 28 following optimistic (0), pessimistic (P} : . ia teen given for a project + (P) and most likely (M) time estimates for each task have Task Predecessors ‘Aetivity times lays) —__Aatvng ties ass oO u P 7 _ 10 12 Ss 2 nS 5 10 16 5 a 3 5 0 : c 8 B 0 = c 4 7 2 ie c 3 4 6 G DE 3 ; i: H AG 5 7 0 (© Construct the network diagram for this project and compute its expected completion time assuming all tasks take their expected completion times. " me ° ° G Compute the probability thatthe project will take more than 50 days to complete. (Dethi SLBA. (PT.) 2025; 2531. A small project is composed of seven activities whose time estimates are given in the following table : Activity Time required (days) Trent Kame i ie z 2 A cd 6 Bry 3 B 6 n is Io c 2 RB 20 2s D 6 6 6 as E 2 0 48 “6 F 2 30 2 so G 18 30 s (i) Find the expected duration and variance for each activity. (ii) What is the expected project length? ‘ ation of the project length. | iti) Calculate the variance and standard deviation m nject ral Mom, 2002; Guru Nanak Dev RA, 2004) 2532. A project is composed of cight activities, the time estimates for which are given below Timg estimates (weeks) Activity Tmmedianely Ting preceding activity - ~ Mout likely Pessiisns rr 4 pas %6 ¢ A to : i t 4 Fe te 3 9 praese 2 7 # BAG —! ~Seanned with CamSeanner 736 OPERATIONS RESEARG, (a) Draw the PERT network. (b) Find out the critical path and the expected project comp! (c) Ifa 30 week dead line is imposed, what is the probabi limit? [Delhi fetion time. ty that the project will be finished within the Mkt 2005; Panjab Tech, Unit. MIRA, Cane ane 2533. A project consists of activities A,B, C.D. uv H, 1. The notation X-< ¥ means that the ac: be completed before Y'ean start, and X, ¥-

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