BASIC METHODS FOR DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

Extrapolation
• Historical trends used to make estimates or future population
• Usually used for short-term estimates (10-20 years)
• Does not account for population processes
• Several mathematical forms may be used
o Linear
▪ Use linear regression
Pop(2000) = Pop(1990) + b(n)
where: b is average change in pop. per unit of time and n represents number of time periods

o Exponential
▪ Several possible forms
Pop(2000) = Pop(1990) * (1 + r)n or Pop(2000) = Pop(1990) * ern
o Logistic or modified exponential models
▪ Carrying capacity places limit on growth

Components of growth
• Use extrapolation techniques to estimate changes in births, deaths and migration
• Sum population processes to predict future population

Ratio-Share method
• Top-down or bottom-up procedure for estimating population at one scale based on
population(s) at another scale
o Local area comprises some share of parent area
▪ Stable or increasing
o If you know rate of change for parent area, you can estimate population of local
area

Statistical methods
• Use linear regression (or similar models)
• Population is estimated as a function of any number of variables
o Births and deaths
o Dwellings, building permits, school enrollment

Cohort-component method
• Fundamental demographic equation
Pop(2000) = POP(1990) + BIRTHS – DEATHS + (INMIGRATION – OUTMIGRATION)
• Need data on starting population
o By age, gender, race/ethnicity
• Need data on population processes
o For each group
• Allows consideration of different scenarios
• CCM systematically “ages” the population through a series of five-year cohorts according to
birth rates, death rates and migration