Climate Change As A Tragedy of The Commons

4th International Conference for the Promotion of Educational Innovation
Climate Change as a Tragedy of the Commons. A NetLogo Experience in

School.
Gkaras Georgios
st
Physics teacher, 1 Experimental Senior High School of Athens Gennadeio
ggaras@sch.gr
Yiatas Dimitrios
ICT teacher, 1st Experimental Senior High School of Athens Gennadeio
dyiatas@gmail.com
Dimitrakopoulou Kalliopi
Physics teacher, 1st Experimental Senior High School of Athens Gennadeio
kallioped@yahoo.com
Abstract
The possibility of students being able to understand Climate Change as a "Tragedy of the
Commons" is explored. For this purpose, in a two-hour lesson, students are introduced to
Climate Change with the Climate Change NetLogo model and then take part in the “Tragedy
of the Commons” participatory simulation of NetLogo HubNet. Students' engagement,
knowledge and attitudes are reflected in the worksheets of the teams. The playful character
of teaching seems to facilitate students' contact with new and unfamiliar concepts.
Keywords: Climate Change, Tragedy, Commons, NetLogo, HubNet
Introduction
Since the Industrial Revolution started (roughly 1900) an increase in global temperature
is marked which correlates well with the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. Although other parameters also influence the earths’ temperature – changing
solar radiation is one of them - there is more than 97% consensus among scientists that
human activity is extremely likely (more than 95%) to be the main cause of climate change.
Among the signs that reveal the Climate Change are: A significant increase of the
concentration of carbon dioxide from preindustrial estimates that is escalating in our days
(from roughly 300 ppm since 1950 to more than 400 ppm today), a rise in the planet's
average surface temperature of about 1.1 °C since the late 19th century, a rise of the oceans
temperature of about 0.17 °C since 1969, a shrinking of ice sheets, glaciers retreating
everywhere around the world, spring snow cover decrease and snow is melting, global sea
level rise of about 8 inches in the last century and the rate in the last two decades being
nearly the double of that of last century, arctic sea ice decrease, record high temperature
events being more frequent while record low temperature events less frequent, and an
increase of acidity of surface ocean waters since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution
by about 30% threatening marine life (Callery, Shaftel & Jackson, 2018).
Climate is a Complex System the current change of which is dominated by anthropogenic
emissions but also affected by many other factors as land use, ocean carbon uptake, solar
variability, and feedbacks such as impacts on albedo from melting ice and changing cloud
patterns. It features a variability resulting from a plethora of natural cycles such as El Niño -
a cycle of warm and cold temperatures at central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Variability
occurs at all levels - in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, biosphere and covers a wide
range of time, from weeks to centuries. This complexity is attempted to be partially captured
by mathematical models – implemented in powerful computers - that try to throw light on
Conference Proceedings – 4th International Conference for the Promotion of Educational Innovation,
Larissa 12, 13 & 14 October 2018
the future, using data of past climate behavior and the laws of physics (Jones, 2016). It is
obvious that climate is not easy to predict. However, most models agree that there is a great
probability the global temperatures will rise in the near future, while the most accurate of
them in describing the past, predict the greater warming (Brown & Caldeira, 2017).
Picture 1. Positive climate feedback loops.

Vicious feedback loops, like those depicted in Picture 1, can lead to a cascade of effects,
abrupt climate change, and to an intolerable increase of the temperature of the planet (Ruiz,
2018). According to Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, based on the reports of the
three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including
relevant special reports, if no mitigation measures are taken, temperature is likely to gain
more than 4 °C and sea level more than 0.8 m for a concentration of carbon dioxide of
about 1000 ppm or higher, while even when severe mitigation measures are taken,
temperature increase is unlikely to stay below 2 °C (IPCC, 2014). Among the possible perils
to come with global warming are: Rising seas and increased coastal flooding, longer and
more damaging wildfire seasons, more destructive hurricanes, more frequent and intense
heat waves, an increase in extreme weather events, heavier precipitation and flooding,
more severe droughts in some areas, increased pressure on groundwater supplies, growing
risks to our electricity supply, changing seasons, melting ice, disruptions to food supplies,
ocean acidification, destruction of coral reefs, plant and animal range shifts, species
extinction, massive migrations, wars, expanding diseases - epidemics, costly and growing
health impacts (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2018; Economist, 2018).
As early as 1896 Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius, predicted that pouring carbon
dioxide to the atmosphere could result in higher global temperatures. Soon after, this was
confirmed independently by the American geologist Thomas Chamberlin who calculated that
human activity could substantially warm the Earth. However, human contribution to the
global temperatures was thought insignificant compared to astronomical and geological
causes. The observation that oceans contain much more CO2 than atmosphere, lead
scientists to see them as an “equalizer” who absorbed excess quantities of it. But in the
1950’s the American scientist Roger Revelle realized that oceans return much of the carbon
dioxide that they absorb. His cooperator Charles Keeling produced the curves that show how
the anthropogenic CO2 mounts over time. According to Spencer Weart, director of the
Center of History of Physics at the American Institute of Physics, all the scientific facts about
enhanced atmospheric CO2 and potential global warming were assembled by the late 1950s–
early 1960s. But it was in the early 1980s, when measurements showed that the global
annual mean temperature curve started to increase. In 1990, Stephen Schneider (Stanford),
who once supposed that we were in a global cooling period, changed his mind declaring that
we enter a warming phase that is potentially catastrophic for ecosystems. Since then, facts
constantly confirm his prediction, but popular mind seems not to resonate with scientists.
For decades, “Times” were publishing articles denying the warming tread and even when
major media such as “The Guardian” started promoting the scientific views, these views
were not widely accepted (Maslin, 2004). However, world leaders realized that measures
should be taken to avoid the global warming catastrophe. The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was the main international agreement on climate
action. It was one of three conventions adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and it has
been ratified by 195 countries. It was agreed that developed countries will work to limit
global temperature increases, and cope with the impacts of climate change. In 1997,
countries agreed on the Kyoto Protocol, which introduced emission reduction targets for
developing countries as well. On December 12, 2015, countries reached a new global
agreement – the Paris Agreement - that presents a plan to limit global warming “well below”
2 °C. Governments agreed to communicate their contributions and set more ambitious
targets. They also accepted to report on how well they are implementing their targets, to
ensure transparency and oversight, and that the EU and developed countries, would
continue to provide climate finance to assist developing countries both to reduce emissions
and to build resilience to climate change impacts (Council of the European Union, 2018).
However, despite the agreements and all the measures taken, the concentration of
carbon dioxide continues to grow at a steady pace to the present day (NASA, 2018). Despite
the development of green energy solutions, the burning of fossil fuels continues growing
(Our World in Data, 2018). Thus, what is wrong? Do we face the typical problem known as
“Tragedy of the Commons”? It was named by the American ecologist and philosopher
Garrett Hardin who used the analogy of farmers grazing their animals in a common field.
They can graze their animals with no problems as far as they do not exceed the capacity of
the field. But if they seek to maximize their profit they will add livestock. Thinking logically
but not collectively they destroy the common source. The tragedy is that eventually no
farmer will be able to graze the field because of overexploitation (Banyan, 2018). The
concept “Tragedy of the Commons” may be traced back to Aristotle, who has written that
"everything that belongs to many people enjoys the least care ..." (Aristotle, Politics II,
12161b).
However, one of the primary roles of the government is the management of common
resources. But, although managing within political boundaries is a relatively simple task, it is
much more problematic when the resources are shared between different countries. Thus,
the fact that we see major players in the global stage misbehaving is not unexpected.
America quit the Paris climate agreement and developing countries try to catch up by
expanding their industries. Companies develop plans to exploit fossils even where icecaps
have recently retreated! Fracking enables countries to extract large amounts of oil and gas
and global population is constantly increasing, demanding more energy for its needs. The
individuals also do not do their share to cut emissions (they do not reduce their everyday
energy consumption). “As resources are overexploited and become more limited, some
argue, managing the commons may have neither a technical nor a political solution. This,
indeed, may be the ultimate Tragedy of The Commons” (Banyan, 2018).
The study
This work is part of a program in our school to investigate the ability to teach Complex
Systems and especially Climate Change as a Complex Problem with the help of NetLogo
simulations (Wilensky, 1999). In previous years, in an action research frame we investigated
how we can use the exploratory teaching method, in many of its variants, with this software,
to teach children complex social, physical and biological phenomena. We found that this
software is particularly suited for this application (Gkaras et al., 2018). This work is also part
of the “Whole School Approach to Climate Change” program of UNESCO Associated Schools
Project Network (ASPnet) of which our school is a member (UNESCO, 2016). In the frame of
this program, among various other school projects, we decided to teach children of the first
and second year about Climate Change and related human responsibility. We used “climate
change” (Tinker & Wilensky, 2007) and “tragedy of the commons” (Wilensky, 2002) Netlogo
models during a semester in two-hour lessons. While with the first model we had worked in
previous projects (Gkaras, Yiatas & Vlassi, 2015; Gkaras & Yiatas, 2018; Gkaras et al., 2017;
Gkaras et al., 2018), it was the first time we experimented with the latter.
NetLogo includes a high-level programming language, suitable for building models of
many actors (called "turtles") that can interact with each other and their environment.
NetLogo allows you to visualize these actors as they change, move and interact. The
environment is made up of elements of space, called "patches", which are actors
themselves. Different types of turtles, “breeds“, can be defined and can be tracked as they
move and form patterns. Interaction rules can lead to the emergence of unexpected
patterns, even when the interactions are simple (Gkaras et al, 2017). NetLogo includes a
wide range of interdisciplinary models, many of which are related to high school curricula.
Picture 2. “Climate Change” NetLogo model. Sun-brightness, albedo, greenhouse gases

and clouds affect climate and global temperature.
In "Climate Change" NetLogo model, Sun’s radiation, Earth’s albedo, atmosphere’s

greenhouse gases and clouds are the parameters that influence the Earth’s climate (Picture
2). The user sees the effect on Earth’s “mean” temperature by changing the values of these
parameters. This model was used in the first hour of the two-hour lesson, so that students
learn about the Climate Change problem, and understand some of its basic parameters as
well as why it is considered a Complex Problem and start thinking about a possible response.
A second and more ambitious target was that students learn about possible climate
feedback loops. Their responses were recorded on their working sheets which had the
following structure: 1) Run the model by changing one of the parameters each time. How do
climate parameters affect temperature when they increase? A) Solar radiation B) The albedo
of the earth C) Cloudiness D) Carbon dioxide. 2) Talk to your team about how changing one
of the above parameters could affect another parameter. A) Write down your prediction B)
Now run the model by introducing the feedback you described above. What do you notice?
3) Repeat for another pair of parameters A) Write down your prediction B) Now, run the
model by introducing the feedback you described above. What do you notice? 4) Announce
your conclusions. 5) Discussion.
Analyzing the answers, we found that students understood relatively well the role of the
parameters of the model (sun-brightness, albedo, CO2, clouds) in the temperature of the
planet, but their understanding of the climate feedback loops was poor. Only a few of them
gave full feedback loops (for example co2 - > temperature -> clouds -> temperature), while
most of them simply connected clouds with radiation meeting the surface of the earth. In
comparison with our previous work (Gkaras, Yiatas & Vlassi, 2015) we found that students
were, this time, more receptive and knowledgeable about Climate Change – which is
possibly due to both, school and media, which have focused on Climate Change the last few
years. Students engaged in experimentations and were more prone to accept that human
activity affects climate. However, they exhibited similar difficulties as did students in
previous years in understanding the complexity aspects of the problem (feedback loops).
The “tragedy of the commons” NetLogo model is a Hubnet participatory simulation
(Picture 3). In these simulations, students or groups of students are actors who can make
decisions and interact with the others leading to collective results. In this case, each group of
students, working in their school lab net terminal, is a “cattle owner” who tries to maximize
his yield in milk, while his goats graze in a common meadow. The actors can buy and sell
animals and the total yield of the field depends on the decisions they make. At the same
time, they can see the collective results of their actions and can decide how to modify their
behavior in order to obtain better results. The teacher decides how many actors will enter
the simulation and also decides the values of the parameters, such as the initial number of
goats per shepherd, cost per goat, grazing rate and grass growth rate.
Picture 3. “Tragedy of The Commons” NetLogo, Hubnet model. Colors represent different
owners of the goats.
Our targets for the tragedy of the common lesson were: 1) Students to think about the
human responsibility regarding Climate Change 2) Students to realize that Climate Change is
a problem resulting from the actions of individuals 3) Children to realize that the solution
will be the result of human interaction and cooperation 4) Children to think about
“mitigation” and “adaptation”. The worksheets had the following structure: Run the
"tragedy of the commons model". What do you notice? Discuss how to avoid the previous
situation and re-run the program. What do you notice? Finally: What causes Climate
Change? Can we avoid it? How? Do we need to prepare to adapt to Climate Change? How?
Students engaged in the activity. As expected, they “bought” more goats and soon they
realized that their initially growing gains suddenly dropped because the “field” had
exhausted its capacity to grow more grass (Picture 3). Following the discussion of the
problem, the teacher re-ran the problem. Some students chose to sell goats in order to
avoid the catastrophe, but others not. The field collapsed again. The students were asked to
fill in their worksheets and their answers are very revealing.
Picture 4. Our classification of student’s answers to “What is the cause of Climate

Change” question.
In Picture 4 we see that only a few students attributed Climate Change directly to the lack
of cooperation of human beings despite the model and our lesson target. By contrast, a
large percentage attributed the problem to human nature! So, didn’t they believe that
humanity is capable of cooperation? Here we should stress that the Greek education system
does not encourage cooperation and these students were selected through examinations. It
might also reveal the attitudes of our society or simply that our lessons failed to teach. A
same percentage attributed Climate Change to economic behavior which probably
constitutes a criticism towards our economic system that is individualistic and encourages
mindless consumption. Significant percentages attributed the problem to “Human action”,
to “pollution” and to “overpopulation”. The last answer might stem from our lessons, since
neither the school nor the media promote this explanation. However, the fact that only 5%
attribute current climate change to causes other than human interference might signal a
general change in the perception of the problem that took shape the last few years.
To the question “Can we avoid Climate Change?” only very few children answered “No”
(Picture 5). This is an optimistic and encouraging result. Even more, in the question “How?”
the “Cooperation/Communication” answers gained a better percentage. Students also
suggested a number of practices that can lead to mitigation. Among them: reduction of fuel
use, cooperation/communication between the stakeholders, change of economic behavior,
personal change, education and awareness, non-pollution, renewable energy forms, modes
of transport that do not produce large amounts of greenhouse gasses, prudent exploitation
of the planet’s resources, recycling and new and strict legislations. Students’ answers reveal
knowledge and awareness about the problem. This is a rather surprising result, since they
are in their adolescence and normally preoccupied with the problems of their age. But it will
affect their future and they would not like to spoil it.
Picture 5. Our classification of student’s answers to “Can we avoid Climate Change?

How?” question.
Picture 6. Our classification of student’s answers to “Should we be prepared for Climate

Change? How?” question.
Their answer to the question: “Should we be prepared for Climate Change? How?” was
even more impressive. Only a small percentage gave relevant answers (Picture 6). This
reveals that they had not understood it. The other answers, in fact, respond to the previous
question “Can we avoid Climate Change? How?” Here are some of these answers: less
consumption, bicycles, recycling, no to plastics, no to greed, propaganda, change way of
thinking, change habits, no to pollution, taking action, renewables, recycling, sustainable
business awards, compromising our interests, natural gas, finding ways not to make it worse,
transnational agreements, taking measures, sacrifices required, coexistence with the planet.
We believe that students didn’t understand the question because they could not accept that
humanity would ever permit catastrophic Climate Change. Among the relevant answers was
the following “we should never let it happen” one. Only very few answered “We can’t” and
some of them answered “I don’t know”. A few knew that Climate Change will affect different
populations differently and offered the “transfer of populations” as a solution.
Conclusions
In this work, we attempted to facilitate learning in a specially designed environment
(Dumont, Instance, & Benavides 2010). In the school’s ICT lab, students worked in groups,
participated in experiments both as subjects and as investigators and learned new concepts
(Wilensky & Stroup, 2002). The NetLogo Hubnet participatory simulation, with which they
worked, has been designed to help students understand how complex dynamic systems
behave and to explore how individual decisions can affect environment and consequently
human wellbeing. We used this model to study Climate Change as a complex problem
related to human activity. Our targets were for students to engage in the activities, to learn
about Climate Change and human responsibility and to think about human potential to avert
a possible disaster. In the troubled waters of the Greek public school – strikes, “school
occupations” and disrupting private tutorial lessons facilitating university entrance exams -
the above targets were partially accomplished. Due to time restrictions we were not able to
check for changes in attitude and knowledge due to these two-hour lessons. However we
were able to see the positive changes which happened in the minds in the last years and we
have possibly contributed a bit in this change. We think that, our students are now a little
better equipped to address the Climate Change problem as young people and citizens.
We, the teachers, have learned as well. We realized how difficult it is for students to
confer in the classroom, so as to avoid the Tragedy of The Commons. However, this was a
game. In real life, people were able to exploit commons without destroying them since the
ancient times - they were able to destroy them as well (Hardin, 1968). Lack of
communication between actors is a crucial parameter for cooperation even though not the
only one for sustainable behavior. The internet and mass media give the means for a
synchronization of the actors across the globe so that – in a form of governance – they tune
their actions towards a sustainable future (Paavola, 2012). Other species, simpler than
human beings, have achieved a cumulative behavior, crucial for their survival, through the
simplest of interactions between individuals. Ants, for example, can form bridges and life
boats with their bodies when they want to cross an empty space or when they are in danger
during heavy rains. Microorganisms (bacteria, slime, etc.) can solve difficult problems,
related to their survival, as well, by interacting with each other. Even plant roots cooperate
to efficiently exploit soil nutrients. This is called “swarm intelligence” which we believe that
human beings do not lack. In fact, the exploration of the ability of human beings to
cooperate acting simply and with efficiency is another project for our school.
Acknowledgment
We kindly thank Dr. Koufogiorgou Andromachi, English teacher in our school, for her
editing and proofreading the manuscript.
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4th International Conference for the Promotion of Educational Innovation

Climate Change as a Tragedy of the Commons. A NetLogo Experience in

Picture 1. Positive climate feedback loops.

Picture 2. “Climate Change” NetLogo model. Sun-brightness, albedo, greenhouse gases

In "Climate Change" NetLogo model, Sun’s radiation, Earth’s albedo, atmosphere’s

Picture 4. Our classification of student’s answers to “What is the cause of Climate

Picture 5. Our classification of student’s answers to “Can we avoid Climate Change?

Picture 6. Our classification of student’s answers to “Should we be prepared for Climate

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