Future Friday: What is the difference between a fad, a

trend and a megatrend?

Do you know the difference between a fad a trend and a megatrend?
In my sessions on 7 Steps to being a practical HR Futurist I tell people that they
need to be watching trends in their industry and in their targeted employee
population. In the HR literature we talk about the necessity of paying attention to
trends in demographics, economics, and legislation. As I was doing some reading I
realized that not everyone may really know about the differences between a fad, a
trend and then a megatrend. Here is a brief lesson which I hope you find useful.
A Fad
A fad is something that quickly gains in popularity and may fade just as quickly,
sometimes just not quick enough. Clothing, foods, exercises, hairstyles, language
are all areas that are subject to fads. A quinoa eating super model wearing this
year’s bathing suit that is high waisted is a picture of a fad. They are fleeting and
often last a season but may carry over a couple of years. This does not mean we
ignore them, indeed we do need to be aware of them if we deal with populations of
employees who may be subject to following them. Fashion, language and
behaviors all have an effect on the workplace regardless of how fleeting they may
be. Fads are often heavily driven by social media today. In fact social media at one
time was considered a fad, which has now evolved into a trend.

A trend
Trends are a bit slower paced but represent something that is occurring on a much
wider scale than a fad. A style of dress may be a fad that only affects one segment
of the population, but the use of social media is a trend that reaches a broader
segment. It has taken a bit longer to develop on that broad basis but now has the
staying power that indicates it is a permanent alteration of the landscape. Where
people live, what jobs they take, their modes of transportation, whether they save
for retirement, whether they seek higher levels of education are all trends that HR
should pay attention to. Changes in technology may speed some trends along. The
nature of TV viewing is subject to trends and the resulting celebrity worship of
non-celebrities is a trend that has taken several years to develop. The key is to pay
attention to your employee population. Where do they fit? What trends seem to be
the ones they will be subject to? This will allow you to start preparing for any shift
that might occur.

A Megatrend
If trends are a bit slower, megatrends are the glaciers of this set. Megatrends are
the long-lasting, years in developing, things that shift the world. China as an
economic powerhouse was identified at least three decades ago as having the
potential to be a world economic force to be reckoned with. According to
the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies “Megatrends are the probable
future – or express what we know with great confidence about the future.
Megatrends are certainties.” The identified megatrends of today are an aging
population, globalization, increasing technological change, urbanization,
prosperity, increased network speed, and just the speed of everyday life. These are
forces that, barring disaster, we will all have to deal with. Of course there are
things, the “wild cards” that could occur to derail these megatrends. The earth
could be hit by an asteroid; the unrest in the Ukraine could blossom into World
War III; a disease could develop that kills everyone over the age of 60; or some
other such happening. The likelihood is small and you certainly don’t want to plan
on them.
What is an HR professional to do?
The best course of action is to be aware of the difference. You notice the fads, you
pay attention and plan on the trends, and you study and understand the megatrends
and make long range plans for dealing with them. You have to understand your
current environment and population and start planning for them and from them to
insure being prepared to dealing with them.