Cuarta Asignación de Estadística Aplicada 2021 II

Defina la variable, el espacio muestral y rango.

Grup
Problemas
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1
In a Rutherford-Geiger experiment, the numbers of emitted α particles are counted
in each of n = 2608 time intervals of 7.5 seconds each. In Table ni is the number of
time intervals in which i particles were emitted. Determine the average number λ of
particles emitted per time interval, and compare the ni of Table with npi computed
from the Poisson distribution with mean value λ.

i → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
ni → 57 203 383 525 532 408 273 139 45 27 16

Pollution control regulations. A task force established by the Environmental 2

Protection Agency was scheduled to investigate 20 industrial firms to check for
violations of pollution control regulations. However, budget cutbacks have
drastically reduced the size of the task force, and they will be able to investigate
only 3 of the 20 firms. If it is known that 5 of the firms are actually operating in
violation of regulations, find the probability that
(a) None of the three sampled firms will be found in violation of regulations.
(b) All three firms investigated will be found in violation of regulations.
(c) At least 1 of the 3 firms will be operating in violation of pollution control
regulations.
 3
A chemical firm produces bottles of shampoo. It is found over a long period of time
that 1 in 50 bottles contains enough impurity to render the shampoo unusable. A
random sample of 100 bottles is taken. What is the probability that more than 5 of
them will be unusable?

A quality-control engineer wants to check whether (in accordance with 4

specifications) 95% of the electronic components shipped by his company are in
good working condition. To this end, he randomly selects 15 from each large lot
ready to be shipped and passes the lot if the selected components are all in good
working condition; otherwise, each of the components in the lot is checked. Find the
probabilities that the quality-control engineer will commit the error of
(a) holding a lot for further inspection even though 95% of the components are in
good working condition;
(b) letting a lot pass through without further inspection even though only 90% of the
components are in good working condition;
(c) letting a lot pass through without further inspection even though only 80% of the
components are in good condition.

Un lote de 500 contenedores de jugo de naranja congelado contiene cinco que son
defectuosos. Dos de ellos son seleccionados al azar, sin reemplazo del lote.
a) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que el segundo seleccionado sea defectuoso, ya que
el primero estaba defectuoso?
b) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que ambos sean defectuosos?
c) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que ambos sean aceptables?
Tres contenedores son seleccionados al azar, sin reemplazo, del lote.
d) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que el tercer seleccionado sea defectuoso, ya que el
primero y el segundo que se seleccionaron fueron defectuosos?
e) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que el tercer seleccionado sea defectuoso, ya que el
primero seleccionado fue defectuoso y el segundo seleccionado estuvo bien?
f) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que los tres sean defectuosos?

An oil refinery has a problem with air pollution. In any one year, the probability of 7
escape of SO2 is 23%, and probability of escape of a sticky oil is 16%. Escape of
SO2 and escape of the oil will not occur at the same time. If the wind direction is
right, the SO2 or oil will blow away from the city and no damage will result. The
probability of this is 55%. Otherwise, an escape of SO2 will result in damage claims
of $80,000, an escape of oil will result in damage claims of $45,000, and there will
be possibility of a fine. If the pollutant is SO2, under these conditions there is 90%
probability of a fine, which will be $150,000. If the pollutant is oil, the probability
of a fine depends on whether the oil affects a prominent politician’s house or not. If
oil causes damage, the probability it will affect his house is 5%. If it affects his
house, the probability of a fine is 96%. If it does not affect his house, the probability
of a fine is 65%. If there is a fine for pollution by oil, it is $175,000. Answer the
following questions for the next year.
(a) What is the probability there will be damage claims for escape of SO2?
(b) What is the probability there will be damage claims for escape of oil?
(c) What is the probability of a $150,000 fine?
(d) What is the expected cost for damages and fines?

Sampling for defectives from large lots of a manufactured product yields a number
of defectives Y that follows a binomial probability distribution. A sampling plan
involves specifying the number of items to be included in a sample n and an
acceptance number a. The lot is accepted if Y  a and rejected if Y > a. Let p
denote the proportion of defectives in the lot. For n = 5 and a = 0, calculate the
probability of lot acceptance if
a) p = 0, b) p = 0.1, c) p = 0.3, d) p = 0.5, e) p = 1.0
A graph showing the probability of lot acceptance as a function of lot fraction
defective is called the operating characteristic curve for the sample plan. Construct
this curve for the plan n = 5, a = 0. Note that a sampling plan is an example of
statistical inference. Accepting or rejecting a lot based on information contained in
the sample is equivalent to concluding that the lot is either “good” or “bad”,
respectively. “Good” implies that a low fraction is defective and that the lot is
therefore suitable for shipment

A mining company is planning strategy with respect to its operations. It has the
option of developing 3 properties, but only in a given sequence of A, B, and C. The
probability of A being successful and yielding a net profit of $1.5 million is 0.7, and
the probability of its failing and causing a loss of $0.5 million is 0.3. If A is
successful, B has 0.6 probability of being successful and producing a gain of $1.2
million, and 0.4 probability of being a failure and causing a loss of $.75 million. If
A is a failure, B has 0.4 probability of being a success with a gain of $1 million, and
0.6 probability of being a failure with a loss of $1.8 million. If both A and B are
failures, then the company will not proceed with C. If both A and B are successes, C
will be a success with probability of 0.9 and a gain of $2.5 million, or a failure with
probability of 0.1 and a loss of $1.5 million. If either A or B is a failure (but not
both) then C is attempted. In that case, the probability of success of C would be 0.3
but a gain of $5 million would result; failure of C, probability 0.7, would result in a
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loss of $0.8 million. The company decides to proceed with this strategy.
(a) What is the expected gain or loss?
(b) Given that A is a failure, what is the expected total gain from projects B and C?
(c) Given that there is a net loss for all three (or two) projects taken together,
(d) what is the probability that B was a failure?

A lot of industrial products contains 40 defectives. Let Y be the number of

defectives in a random sample of size 20. Find P(10) by using
a) The hypergeometric probability distribution.
b) The binomial probability distribution.
c) Is N large enough so that the binomial probability function is a good
approximation to the hypergeometric probability function?