IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 12, No.
1, January 1997
A Comparison belween XLPE and EPR as Insulating Materials for HV Cables
G. Mazzanti, Member, IEEE
Diparthento di Ingegneria Elettrica, University of Bologna, Viale Risorgimento 2,40 136 Bologna, Italy
Abstract-The performances of XLPE and EPR as materials
candidate for insulation of high voltage power cables are
investigated. Data obtained from laboratory tests performed on
cable models aged under single thermal and electrical stresses,
as well as under the combination of the two stresses, are
considered. The drawing of eleci rical, thermal and multi-stress
life lines provides a synthetic and exhaustive description of the
behavior of the tested materials, :and allows the determination of
endurance indices, useful for electrical, thermal and multi-stress
characterization.
I. INTRODiUCTION
Cross-linked Polyethylene (XLPE) is likely the most
popular polymeric material among high voltage (HV) cable
manufacturers and electrical utilities all over the world. It is
commonly used as the insulation for power cables operating
up to the highest levels of service voltage. The recent
developments in manufacturing of XLPE-insulated cables,
e.g. triple extrusion, dry curing and extra-clean
manufacturing, has led to the design and operation of 500 kV
XLPE insulated cables [l], and gives XLPE the chance of
competing with the oil-paper insulation.
On the other hand, the improvements in cable-
manufacturing techniques and in production of polymer
compounds and additives has considerably raised the
performances of other materiads suitable for application in
high voltage systems, parl icularly Ethylene-Propylene
Rubber (EPR). This material is standardized as insulation for
medium-voltage distribution cables in many countries [2-41,
and is widely employed in some of them (e.g. in Italy),
showing good electrical, thermal, mechanical and
environmental behavior [5-81. However, in order to compete
with XLPE in the HV field (up to 130 kV), EPR must feature
large values of design electrical field and current rating,
besides, of course, acceptable losses.
96 WM 216-2 PWRD A paper recommended and approved by the IEEE
Insulated Conductors Committee of thi: IEEE Power Engineering Society for
presentation at the 1996 IEEEPES Winter Meeting, January 21-25, 1996,
Baltimore, MD. Manuscript submitted July 26, 1995; made available for
printing January 15, 1996.
0885-8977/97/$10.00 0 1996 IEEE
15
G. C. Montanari, Senior Member, IEEE
A comparison between XLPE and EPR from the viewpoint
of their use in HV cables requires accurate knowledge of
their endurance characteristics under the expected service
stresses, among which electric field and temperature (as well
as the combination of the two), are the most challenging
ones.
Electro-thermal endurance characterization is based on a
large number of short and long-term life tests, that must be
realized according to suitable procedures. The relevant data
must be processed by means of appropriate statistical tools,
and life models, valid for single and multiple stresses, are
needed for the derivation of the required endurance indices
and extrapolation close to service conditions.
In general, life tests having the purpose of endurance
characterization and material comparison are not performed
on full size cables, in order to simplify the procedures and
reduce the costs which are, however, not negligible. Flat
specimens are commonly used (expecially when only basic
material characterization is needed, irrespective of the
geometry of the insulation system), but also cable models, of
considerably smaller size than service cables, are employed.
Using the latter makes tests more complex than for the
former, but has the advantage that cable model geometry
(and hence the electric stress profile) is the same as for power
cables. Even in the case of cable models, however, life tests
under electro-thermal stress have mainly the purpose of
material characterization and comparison, rather than of
providing direct insights on power cable design.
In this paper, the results of accelerated life tests performed
on XLPE and EPR-insulated cable models, subjected to
electrical, thermal and thermo-electrical stresses, are
presented and discussed with the purpose to compare the
thermo-electrical endurance characteristics of the two
materials, and point out the possible advantages that each one
has, compared to the other, in the perspective of the use as
insulation for HV power cables. Focus is given to the
experimental and analytical techniques for endurance
investigation and material comparison, being aware that the
life data cannot be straightforwardly used for full-size cable
design.
11. DESCRIPTION OF TEST METHODOLOGY AND
PROCEDURES
The electric and thermal stresses can be considered as the
more severe ones for degradation of HV cables, when the
environmental aging factors can be neglected (due to, e.g.,
metal jacketing). Hence, the characterization of XLPE and
16
EPR cable models has been achieved focusing to the effect of
these two stresses. Electrical and thermal stresses have been
applied singly or in combined way, giving particular
emphasis to the synergistic effect of the superimposition of
temperature and electrical gradient. Thus, thermal life tests,
electrical life tests and combined electro-thermal life tests
were performed on XLPE and EPR cable models.
The so-called progressive censoring procedure [9, 101 was
applied to electrical and multi-stress life tests to obtain
information on the aging mechanisms correlated to the failure
data, as well as to reduce the test times. The progressive
censoring procedure consists of removing some non-failed
specimens from the test at selected times (named censoring
times), and measuring diagnostic properties, such as electric
and tensile strength, conductivity, oxidation time, on these
“censored“ specimens. The failed and non-failed specimens
are then processed all together by appropriate statistical
methods [9], in order to achieve the estimates of the failure-
times relevant to the test voltage. By this way, both failure
times” and time-behavior of diagnostic properties are
available at the end of each life test.
The life tests were performed with the purpose to enable
the determination of the endurance characteristics of the
material in a stress range as close as possible to the service
one. Since the realization of tests at stress levels comparable
with the design ones would take unacceptably long times, the
tests must be performed according to a strategy that allows
optimization between the need of reasonably-short test times
and characterization of the low stress behavior [ l l ] . The
whole test procedure can be thought of as divided into two
steps:
- firstly, the determination of the short-term endurance
characteristics of the material, obtained subjecting specimens
to high values of stresses, much larger than those expected in
service for cable insulation. This step takes relatively short
times if compared with the remaining test procedure, but it is
fundamental in order to achieve thorough information on the
unaged material, as well as to correctly plan long-term
endurance tests;
- secondly, the determination of the long term endurance
characteristics, obtained applying to the material lower and
lower stresses with respect to the first step.
The so-called Combined Analysis Method (CAM) [ 12-16]
considerably helps in optimization of the choice of the
electrical, thermal, and electro-thermal stress levels,
minimizing the number of required life tests and thus
reducing the waste of time and money for unnecessary tests.
The CAM supports a factorial-test procedure which is based
on the fact that material life under eIectrical and thermal
stress can be geometrically represented by a three-dimension
surface, the intersections of which with constant electric
stress and temperature planes provide the electrical and
thermal life lines respectively. These lines can be plotted in
the electrical and thermal graphs, resorting to the results of
the life tests performed at relatively-high stresses. Comparing
one graph with the other, the test operator can estimate life
points from life lines in one graph and introduce them in the
other graph, thus singling out the couples of electrical and
thermal stresses that could give additional information on the
endurance characteristics of the material. This enables an
optimized design of further tests, particularly those at the
lowest-stress levels. Moreover, the CAM allows the constant-
life graph, or isochronal graph, to be plotted, which consists
of lines at chosen values of life. This graph provides
estimates of the couples voltage-temperature corresponding
to a given life (at fixed failure probability). Therefore, it
constitutes a useful tool for insulation design.
The drawing of life lines and isochronal lines, the
derivation of endurance indices and the subsequent
extrapolation to service stress levels on the basis of
experimental data is achieved by means of suitable life
models (valid for single and multiple stresses), that must be
chosen according to their ability of fitting satisfactorily the
life points on the relevant graphs. Life models, as well as life
points, are relevant to selected failure probabilities. Hence,
appropriate failure probability distributions (e.g. the Weibull
distribution for electrical and multi-stress failure data [ 171)
must be used to assess life percentiles at the chosen failure
probability.
In order to make the results comparable, the same
geometry and size of specimens was chosen for both XLPE
and EPR.
The tested cable models are formed by:
- solid copper conductor, 1.8 mm in diameter;
- semiconducting conductor shield, 0.5 mm thick (made by
carbon-black filled ethylene-vynilacetate copolymer or
carbon-black filled EPR for XLPE and EPR cables,
respectively);
- XLPE/EPR insulation 1.5 mm thick. The XLPE is
realized by HDF4201, while EPR is a top compound for HV
applications.
Geometry and dimensions are such that the voltage values
numerically coincide with the maximum electical field in the
cable [7, 181. The outer shield was realized by metal coating
and/or taping semiconductive XLPE/EPR. The thermo-
electrical life data reported in the following are relevant to
specimens with taped outer semiconducting shield. At the
cable ends, thermosetting resin conoids were realized,
partially covered by the outer shield, in order to deflect the
electric field at the shield borders.
111. SINGLE-STRESS THERMAL AND ELECTRICAL
LIFE TEST RESULTS AND MODELING
A. Thermal life test results and modeling
The thermal life tests were performed on both XLPE and
EPR cable models according to IEC 216 standard [19].

Different test temperatures have been considered, namely
150, 130, 110, 100 "C, for XLPE, and 160, 150, 130, 120 "C,
for EPR. Several diagnostic properties were measured (e.g.,
electric and tensile strength, weight, density), and different
end-points considered, in order to achieve a thermal
endurance evaluation homogenieous to the results of multi-
stress tests at low electrical field [20-221. In Fig.1, the
thermal life lines (at 50% faiilure probability) relevant to
XLPE and EPR cables are plotted in the so-called Arrhenius
paper, typically used for thermid endurance. They have been
derived choosing electric strength as diagnostic property, and
50% decrease with respect to the initial value (of the unaged
sample) as end-point. In the figure, the solid part of the lines
is drawn under the assumption1 of validity of the Arrhenius
model [19], which can be expressed as [12, 161:
LT = LToexp(-B cT) (1)
where LT is thermal life (i.e. time to failure when
temperature is the only active stress), B is proportional to the
activation energy of the degradittion process, cT=( UTo)-(UT)
is the so-called conventional thermal stress, T is absolute
temperature (in K), To is a reference temperature (e.g. the
room temperature or the the lowest value of the T range
where the model holds) and LTo is the corresponding time to
failure.
Referring to XLPE, it can be seen that the Arrhenius model
fits well the experimental poin1.s. However, at the lowest test
temperature, i.e. 100°C, the chosen end-point was not
reached even after test times longer than life expected
according to model (1) (thus the test was censored after
25,000 hours). This suggests the existence of a thermal
threshold, for a temperature around 100°C [20]. A tendency
to threshold at temperatures lower than 110°C is suggested
also by one of the diagnostic properties considered for EPR
[21]. In Fig.1, the possible tendency to the threshold is
sketched, for both materials, by dashed lines.
The statistical processing of test data in the linearity range
has allowed the derivation of the values of the thermal
endurance indices, i.e. the TI (Temperature Index, the Celsius
temperature colresponding to a time-to-end-point of 20,000
hours) and the HIC (Halving Interval in Celsius, the
temperature increase which yields an halving of time-to-
failure, starting from the TI). The following values of
TI(H1C) have been obtained, respectively, for XLPE and
EPR: lOl(7.8) and lll(8.4). As a first comment, it can be
said that the tested EPR shows, on the whole, better thermal
endurance characteristics than the tested XLPE, as shown by
the higher TI value and the higher guessed thermal threshold.
As regards the activation energy of the degradation process
(which can be attributed to oxidation in the test-temperature
range [20, 21]), it can be observed that the thermal life line
slopes (and thus the relevant activation energies) are quite
close for both materials.
17
Fig.1. Thermal life lines and experimental points obtained by tests
performed on XLPE ( 0 )and EPR (m)cable models (50% failure
probability). Diagnostic property is electric strength, end-point is 50% of
the initial value. Solid lines are drawn by the Arrhenius model, dashed lines
show the possible tendency to threshold.
B. Electrical life test results and modeling
The electrical life tests were carried out at 50 Hz, at room
temperature (20"C), in both air and water [7, 8, 221. Besides
power-frequency tests, a few high-frequency tests (up to 900
Hz) were carried out at low electrical stresses, with the
purpose to investigate the long-term trend of the electrical
life line. The dry-test results, more suitable for high-voltage
cables, are here considered.
As to the initial electric strength, a slightly higher value
was detected for XLPE cable models (80 kV/mm) in
comparison with EPR cable models (75 kV/mm).
The constant-voltage tests were performed at values
ranging from 75 to about 12 kV in the case of XLPE cables,
and from 70 to 30 kV in the case of EPR cables. In Fig. 2, the
experimental points obtained by constant voltage tests carried
out on XLPE and EPR cable models in air are reported in
semilog plot, together with the relevant electrical life lines.
The data has 50% failure probability, and the confidence
intervals of the life points have probability 95%. As can be
seen, in the case of EPR cables the life points fit a simple
exponential model (EM) in the test-stress range [7], of
equation:
LE = LE, exp[-h(E-E,)]
where LE is electrical life (i.e. time to breakdown), h is a
coefficient related to the electrical line slope, E, is the
highest value of applied electric stress (or the upper limit of
the range where the model holds), and LE, is the
corresponding time to failure. On the other hand, also the
inverse power model (IPM), of equation
18
6
Life [h]
Fig. 2. Semilog plot of electrical life lines and experimental points obtained
by constant-voltage tests performed on XLPE ( 0 )and EPR (I)cable
models in air. Data is relevant to 50% failure probability and confidence
intervals of the life points have probability 95%.
L E = LE, (E/E,)-" (3)
(where n is the correspondent of h in the case of the IPM)
works very well, as proved by the values of the correlation
coefficient, R, larger than 0.99 for both the EM and the IPM
[7]. Therefore, in both cases a linear life line can fit well the
experimental data in the relevant E vs L graph (semilog for
the EM, as in Fig.2, bilog for the IPM), and no evidence of
electrical threshold appears foc EPR cables.
On the contrary, Figure 2 points out clearly the existence
of an electrical threshold (of approximately 11.5 kV/mm) for
the tested XLPE cables. With threshold it is meant the value
of electric stress below which electrical aging practically
ceases and material life tends to so long times that it can be
considered infinite, for modelistic purposes. This leads to
resort to threshold models for life investigation, which show
an upward curvature in E vs L plot, and, finally, tend to
horizontality, i.e. to infinite life. In particular, two threshold
models, derived from eqns. (2) and (3), were shown to fit
satisfactorily electrical life data below 30 kV/mm [7, 16, 231,
namely the 4-parameter Exponential Threshold Model (4p-
ETM), of equation
L E = LEH ~XP[-~(E-EH)]/[(E-ET)/(EH-ET)]' (4)
and the 4-parameter Inverse Power Threshold Model (4p-
IPTM), of equation
(5)
with
n(E) = ni/[ 1-(EH-E)/(E,-ET)]'
TABLE I
Estimated values of VEC and ET for XLPE and EPR, on the basis of
electrical life test data. Equations (2) and (3) are used for VEC calculation,
eq. (4) for ET estimation. In the case of XLPE, eqns. (2) and (3) are applied
in the linear part of the life line, ranging from 35 to 15 kV/mm Threshold
was not detected (n.d ) for EPR.
.
ET is the electrical threshold, and it appears both in the 4p-
ETM and in the 4p-IPTM; p is a parameter that depends on
the way the threshold is approached.
Commonly, h and n are both referred to as Voltage
Endurance Coefficient, VEC [ 121. A large value of the VEC
(and, correspondingly, a small slope of the electrical life line
in E vs L coordinates) means good endurance of the material
to electric stress. In the linear part of the XLPE life line, the
VEC is approximately coincident with h and ni, respectively,
for the 4p-ETM and the 4p-IPTM. A comparison between the
VECs of XLPE and EPR is reported in Table I.
It can be observed that even if EPR has a slightly lower
initial electric strength, it has considerably higher VEC, thus
apparently better endurance characteristics on the whole (see
also Fig. 2). However, the linear behavior of the EPR voltage
endurance line derived from laboratory tests would require
the use of probabilistic life models [24] in order to infer
design stresses at the chosen probability, and, moreover, to
rescale the test results to the power cable size. On the
contrary, in the case of XLPE it has been shown in [23, 251
that a value of the design electrical stress lower than the
laboratory-detected threshold would ensure that the failure
probability is practically zero, independently of size effects
and life-percentile choice.
Hence, the more significant electrical endurance indices
are the initial electric strength and the voltage endurance
coefficient, n, in the case of EPR (and, in general, of no-
threshold materials); the electrical threshold, in the case of
XLPE (and, in general, of threshold materials). The use of an
appropriate life model allows the achievement of accurate
estimates for such indices, which in turn provide fundamental
information for reliable electrical design.
However, cable design must account not only for the
electrical stress imposed by the applied voltage, but also for
the thermal stress and, particularly, the synergism of the two.
This is the reason why cable design cannot.be restricted to
purely electrical considerations, and must refer to multi-stress
endurance characteristics of the chosen material. Hence,
electro-thermal endurance characterization of XLPE and EPR
cable models, dealt with in the next paragraph, is even more
important than the single-stress one in order to set up a
 19

comparison between the perfcrmances of the two materials

40
when employed as insulation for HV cables. I
I

IV. MULTI-STRESS ELECTRO-THERMAL LIFE TEST

RESULTS AND MODELING .
,-.,
E
E
5
25
30 -

A. Results and modeling relevant to XLPE

3
c
20-

._
0

The thermo-electrical life tests performed on XLPE cables 10-

were carried out in oven, with values of voltage and

temperature in the ranges 4-30 kV, 60-110°C. The relevant 0
results are shown in the E vs log L plot of Fig. 3. The life la:
Life [h]
points have 50% failure probability, while the confidence
intervals are calculated at 9% probability. In the figure, the Fig. 3 . Electrical life lines at different temperatures, derived from the 4p-
so-called CAM points are also displayed. They have been ETM, fitting experimental and CAM points at 50% failure probability (with
derived from the thermal life graph (Fig.4) and the isochronal confidence intervals at probability 95%). XLPE cable models.
graph (Fig.5) according to the above-mentioned procedure.
The electrical life lines at different temperatures are drawn in
Fig. 3 on the basis of the 4pETM. The relevant values of CAMpoink

model parameters are reported in Table I1 as a function of Experimentalpoints

test temperature. They were derived by application of a A Thermal life tests

0 Tests at 4 kVlmm
weighted least square procedul e to the experimental points at
,g Tertsat8kVlmm
each test temperature. This means that a parametric form of

.
Tests at 10 kVlmm
the 4p-ETM was employed, namely
Tesk at I2 kVlmm

Tesk at 15 kVlmm

+ Testr at 21 kVlmm

x Task at 25 kVl"

T e r k at 28 kVlmm

I /
where temperature, T, and failure probability, P, are I 1
I /
additional parameters. Model (7) (as well as models ( 2 ) io' I I I I I / / I
through (5)) provides life viilues which correspond to a 20 50 100 150 200 250 300
[ 'Cl
selected value of P, e.g. 50%. It can be noted that the scale
parameter L&T,P) depends cm failure probability as well, Fig. 4. Thermal life lines at different levels of electrical stress, derived
since it is the life that model (7) provides for E=E,, while the fitting experimental and CAM points at 50% failure probability in the
other parameters are functiori of temperature, but do not Arrhenius paper. Confidence intervals have probability 95%. XLPE cables.
depend on failure probability. Failure-time percentiles at
different probabilities can be obtained resorting to the two-
parameter Weibull function, generally used to process
electrical breakdown data, that is
R
F(tF;E,T) = 1 - eXp[-(tF/CX) ] (8)

TAB LE I1
Model (7) parameter values coming from 4p-ETM applied to 50% life
percentiles relevant to XLPE cable models tested at 20, 60,90, and 110°C.

150 200 250 300

Fig. 5. Isochronal (E-T) lines fitting experimental and CAM points at 50%
failure probability, The threshold line is also displayed. XLPE cables.
20
where F is failure probability, tF is time-to-failure (life), and
a and 13 are scale and shape parameters, respectively,
function of applied stresses.
In particular, a corresponds to the time-to-failure at
probability 63.2%, so that its dependence on stresses can be
explained resorting to life models appropriate for the
material, applied to the life points at failure probability
63.2% [24, 251. D can be considered, as a first approximation,
constant and equal to the average of the values obtained from
each life test. If the variance of D is large, this assumption can
affect the extreme percentiles of failure time [24-261 (in the
case of XLPE here considered, acceptable errors come out).
From eqns. (8) and (7), the following expression for the 4-
parameter Exponential Threshold Probabilistic Model can be
obtained
F ( ~,E;T)
F = 1- eXP{ -[ ( t / ~L E K ,&ET)/(EH-ET)I’
~ exp[h(E-EH
(9)
where LE,,,,,, is the value of LE, relevant to 63.2 % failure
probability. Fixed a value of probability, P, it derives:
which formally coincides with model (7) setting the
correspondence tF(P,E,T) = LE(T,P) and putting
The probabilistic life model of eqns. (9), (10) yields
estimates of failure time at any selected probability (e.g. the
50% value reported in Table II), thus constitutes a valid tool
for cable design. It is noteworthy, however, that the life lines
at different probabilities tend to the same, unique value of
threshold (as it can be derived from (10)). Hence, designing
cable below the electrical threshold at the maximum service
temperature would be free of probabilistic considerations.
The dependence of the parameters of model (7) on T is
still unexplained. Once a suitable expression has been
derived for such a dependence, a thoroughly-explained multi-
stress electro-thermal life model can be obtained. The multi-
stress life models available in literature [ 161 generally feature
quite complex expressions (expecially in the case of
threshold models), with a large number of parameters.
Therefore, parameter calculation becomes a cumbersome
problem, which can be solved resorting to advanced
algorithms [27]. Moreover, the confidence bounds (and
hence the uncertainty) of parameter estimates considerably
increase with the number of parameters. For all this reasons,
the use of multi-stress models requires care and expertise. On
the other hand, with respect to the parametric models of the
kind of (7), multi-stress models have the advantage of being
able to predict life values even at temperatures different from
the test ones, and to suggest expressions for the dependence
of endurance indices on the applied stresses. This is the
reason why it is worthwhile considering multi-stress models
in the perspective of HV cable design.
One of the simplest expression proposed for the combined
electro-thermal threshold life model is [12, 161:
exp [- B cT - h(E-E,) + b(E-Eo)cT]
L = KnLn
” - (12)
[(E - Eo)/(Eto-Eo)+ cT/cTto - 11’
where K,L, is a scale parameter, B and h come from the
single-stress thermal and electrical exponential threshold
)]r} models (eqns.(l), (4)), b accounts for the synergism between
the stresses, E, is the value below which electric stress is no
more able to damage the material in a suitable temperature
range, p is a shape parameter, Eto is the electrical threshold at
T=TOand Tto is the thermal threshold at E=Eo.
Applied to the results of multi-stress life tests herein dealt
with, in the range 20-90°C, this model shows unsatisfactory
life data fitting [28]. Starting from the Eyring model [29],
and resorting to accurate expressions of the temperature
dependence of the parameters, in particular of the threshold,
another multi-stress life threshold model was proposed in
[28], that is:
L=
h
kT,E$exp( - T ) e x p ( g ) e x p [ - 3 exp( - +)E]
where h, and k are Planck and Boltzmann constants; DS’,
DH, To and rl are thermodynamic quantities. Model (13) fits
quite well the experimental results reported in Fig.3; in
particular, it provides threshold values in close agreement
with model (7), as shown in Table 111.
TABLE 111
Electrical threshold values as a function of temperature, according to model
(7) and model (13) for XLPE cable model data at 20, 60, and 90°C.

Figure 4 shows that the results of the multi-stress life tests
can be drawn also in the Arrhenius plot. The life points are
relevant to 50% failure probability, with confidence intervals
at probability 95%. The thermal life lines at different levels
of electrical stresses are drawn fitting experimental and CAM
points. It is noteworthy that tlhe CAM points provide quite
useful information on life line drawing, particularly about the
tendency to thermal threshold. The thermal life line at 4
kV/mm is very close to the Anhenius one, thus suggesting
for Eo a value of about 3 kV/mm. For gradients between 0
and 10 kV/mm, a significant life increase with decreasing
temperature can be observed, which leads to hypothesize the
presence of a thermal threshobd, fbnction of electrical stress.
Above 10 kV/mm, the thenrial life line slope diminishes
considerably and the thermal threshold tends to disappear.
For gradients higher than about 20 kV/mm, life is
prevailingly affected by voltage, and thermal life lines
become close to horizontality, for temperatures <IO0 OC.
The isochronal lines relevarit to the results of multi-stress
life tests, reported in Fig.5, i.e. the lines corresponding to
constant values of life, have been drawn by means of
experimental and CAM data. The CAM points were derived
either by a graphical procedure, based on life line plots of
Figs. 3, 4, or applying models (7), (13). In particular, the
threshold line is obtained by (7) and Table 11.
As can be seen, CAM points are fundamental for plotting
accurately isochronal lines with a minimum amount of
experimental results. These lines in turn provide very useful
informations for cable design, since they enable the
determination of couples of electric and thermal stress that
correspond to a given life (at the chosen failure probability).
The shape and intersections of the isochronal lines for long
lives provide a graphical index useful for material
characterization, the Stress Clompatibility Index, SCI [ 12,
151. It is defined as the ratio of the area bounded by the the
pairs of values (E,T) of the chosen long-life line, to the area
of the triangle defined by (E,,, To), (Eo, To), (Eo, Tto) (see
Fig.5). In the case of the tested XLPE cables, from Fig.5 a
value of SCIsl.3 is obtained for the threshold line.
B. Results and modeling relevant to EPR
The thermo-electrical life tests performed on EPR cables
were carried out in oven, with values of voltage and
temperature in the ranges 50-110 kV, 150-60°C. The relevant
results are summarized in the log E vs log L plot of Fig. 6 .
The life points are relevant tlo 50% failure probability; the
confidence intervals are not rcported for the sake of graphic
clearness. In the figure, the CALMpoints are also displayed.
The electrical life lines of Fig.6 are obtained resorting to a
graphical-procedure. An electric stress interval can be
observed (ranging from over 30 kV/mm up to the highest test
stresses, i.e. 60-70 kV/mm) where the life points at each
temperature fit straight lines, while at long times and
21
temperatures larger than 90°C both experimental and CAM
points suggest the presence of a long-time downward
curvature for the electrical life lines. The results obtained
from thermal life tests in the absence of voltage are located in
correspondence of Eo, that has been estimated to be 6
kV/mm (see Fig.9 reported later) [30].
In the linearity range (Le s30-60 kV/mm), the IPM
(eq.(3)) has been used to fit the experimental results in a
parametric form with respect to temperature and for a given
failure probability P, that is:
Model (14) parameters were derived by application of the
least square procedure to the experimental and CAM points
at each test temperature. These values are reported in Table
IV.
The values of the VEC, n, at the various test temperatures
take particular interest, since they give a first indication of
the endurance properties of the tested EPR. It can be noted
that the VEC is still high even for temperatures exceeding the
design one (9OOC according to main cable standards [2-4]),
thus indicating good endurance of the tested EPR to
combined electro-thermal stress.
The VEC variation with temperature seems to fit quite well
a relationship of the kind:
n = no - b cT (15)
as shown by Fig.7, where the linear regression of the VEC
values vs temperature (reported in Table IV) is plotted in a
coordinate system with abscissa proportional to the
conventional thermal stress. This observation supports the
use of a linear combined-stress life model (in the range 30-60
kV/mm, 20-100°C) valid for no-threshold materials, that is
112, 161
100, I I I I I
-
E
E
E
8
E
.Y
”
PW
Life [h]
Fig. 6. Electrical life lines at different temperatures,derived by graphically
fitting the experimental and CAM points at 50% failure probability
(confidence intervals are omitted). EPR cable models.
22

TABLE V
Parameter values of model (16) calculated in the linearity range by the least
square procedure applied to multi-stress data at probability 50% relevant to
EPR cable models.

20
I

50
,
I00
---I
I

rc1

Fig 7 Plot of the VEC values (obtained by model (14) applied to multi-
stress EPR cable data) as a function of temperature, and relevant regression
line (eq (15))
-E
TABLE IV. E
s
\
Parameter values of model (14) derived from application of the least square
procedure to the experimental points at failure probability 50% in the
linearity range (Fig. 6). EPR cable models.

I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
-[no-b cT]
L(E,T) Lo (EIE,) exp(-B cT)

Model (16) has phenomenological nature, but it can also be

derived on the basis of thermodynamic considerations, as it is
shown in [30]. The values of its parameters, reported in Table
V, are calculated in the linearity range, in bilog plot, by the
least-square procedure, with the exception of B, which comes
from the value of HIC estimated for the thermal life line at
zero electrical stress (previously reported). From Table V, it
results that all model parameters are temperature
independent, with the exception of Lo (which is function of
temperature due to thermodynamic reasons, as discussed in
~301).
The electrical life lines at different temperatures shown in
Fig.8 are drawn according to model (16), on the basis of the
parameter values reported in Table V. As can be seen from
comparison with experimental and CAM data, limited to the
linearity range, the validity of the assumed model is fairly
well verified.
Dealmg again with Fig. 6, it can be observed that at
temperatures lower than 90°C there is no evidence of
threshold, but it was noted in [30] that the estimated life of
100,000 hours at 20°C derived in log-log plot according to
eq.(14), suggests a tendency to upward curvature of the life
line in semilog coordinates, which are the more appropriate
ones when the possible tendency to threshold is investigated.
This is not enough to infer any threshold estimate.
Nonetheless, it must be pointed out that the very high values
of VEC up to at least 100°C could hide the presence of an
electrical threshold, since extremely long test times would be
required to prove or to exclude an upward curvature of the
life lines for low electric field values.
Some more insights on thresholds come from Fig. 9, where
the multi-stress life points (with their confidence intervals at
probability 95%) are reported in the Arrhenius graph,
together with the thermal life lines at different values of
electrical stress. The results of the thermal life tests
(described above), as well as CAM points at 100,000 hours
(see Fig. 10 reported later) lead to hypothesize the existence
of a thermal threshold, which decreases from about 105°C at
zero electric field down to about 90°C at 20 kV/mm. Hence,
the existence of an electrical threshold for the electrical life
line at 90°C could be guessed at about 20 kV/mm. In this
case, if one considers lower temperature values, the threshold
should not disappear but, on the contrary, should increase,
having an upper limit in the range 20-30 kV/mm at 20"C, as
suggested by the thermal life lines at 20 and 30 kV/mm of
Fig. 9. It follows that, considering the long time behavior, the
electrical life lines at low and intermediate temperatures

should exhibit a double curvature: an upward curvature in the
low electric stress range, a downward curvature in an
intermediate stress range and, finally, a linear behavior at
higher stresses (see in Fig. 6 the line at 9OOC). The upward
curvature (and hence the threshold) should disappear for
temperatures higher than 105°C; in fact, for T2120"C Fig.9
provides finite life values at E=O kV/mm.
However, it must be underlined that these considerations
about threshold are mainly based on CAM points, that are
estimated with quite large uncertainty. The confidence
intervals are displayed for experimental and CAM points
along the electric stress axis in Fig. 10, where the isochronal
graph relevant to 50% failure probability is shown in log E vs
cT coordinates. The confidence intervals of the CAM points
were estimated by the Monte Carlo method, under the
assumption of validity of linear models [30].
20 50 100 150 200 250
rc1
Fig 9. Thermal life lines at different levels of electrical stresses, derived
fitting experimental and CAM points at 50% failure probability in the
Arrhenius paper (with confidence intervals at probability 95%). EPR cables.
I I 1
n large value of electrical threshold, in the case of XLPE.
E
10
20 50 & ycl 150 200 250 300
Fig. 10. Isochronal (E-T) lines fitting experimental and CAM points at 50%
failure probability (with confidence intervals at probability 95%). EPR
cables.
23
The isochronal graph proves the very good multi-stress
endurance characteristics of the tested EPR, and the
effectiveness of CAM points in deriving the long-term
material behavior, then infer design stresses. Indeed, only
CAM points could enable plotting of the isochronal line at
100,000 hours (at a given failure probability), since the
longest multi-stress life test was carried out for less than
23,000 hours. The accuracy of such a line is obviously fairly
limited, but an aid in long-life line drawing is given by the
shapes of the lines relevant to shorter lives, which is quite
regular (see Fig. 10).
In the case of the tested EPR cables, a value of SCIEl.6 is
obtained from Fig.10 for the 100,000 hour line, which again
supports the good thermo-electrical aging endurance of the
material.
Probabilistic life models can be used even in this case to
estimate any life percentile. For example, from eqns. (S), and
(2)/(3) the following expressions for exponential and inverse-
power probabilistic life models can be obtained [24, 3 11:
It is noteworthy that, contrarily to XLPE, in the case of
EPR the estimation of design stresses must refer to
probabilistic models as (17) and (lS), since the electrical
threshold has not been detected. Therefore, an approach
taking into account size effect and failure probability (see [5,
241) is needed.
300 V. DISCUSSION AND COMPARISON
From the above description of life test results, a quite
accurate picture of the multi-stress behavior of the tested
XLPE and EPR cable models comes out. The laboratory life
tests showed the good endurance characteristics of the two
materials when subjected to electrical and thermal stresses.
This is supported by the estimates of initial electric strength,
TI, HIC and stress compatibility index for both materials, but
expecially by the high value of VEC in a wide temperature
range, in the case of EPR, and by the evidence of a quite
The tested materials are expected to well behave even in
service conditions, provided that the design stresses are
chosen according to the isochronal lines depicted in Figs. 5
and 10. The previous modelistic analysis has put emphasis on
the tools needed to infer behavior of power cables on the
basis of laboratory tests on models. These tools are:
- life models (eqns. (1)-(3), (7), (12), (13), (14), (16)),
which enable both the extrapolation of laboratory test results
to long lives, comparable to the service ones, and the
determination of endurance indices useful for a comparison
between the different materials (e.g. VEC, TI, HIC, SCI);
24
- probabilistic life models (eqns. (9), (17), (lg)), which
yield failure-time percentiles at any probability, particularly
the lowest ones used for cable design.
The main discriminating factor between the tested XLPE
and EPR cables is the detection of the electrical threshold,
which was successful for XLPE, while could not be achieved
in the case of EPR. This affects, of course, cable design, as
shown in the following example.
Referring to EPR, a linear model would seem appropriate
for life prediction and design-stress estimation. For example,
the electrical stress corresponding to a failure time of 25
years at probability 50% and temperature 60°C for EPR cable
models can be calculated resorting to the IPM (eq. (14)). The
result is 29.6 kV/mm if the parameters reported in Table IV
at 60°C are tought valid. Altematively, the use of multi-stress
model (16), with the parameter values reported in Table V,
would give a value of 29.9 kV/mm, which is in agreement
with the prediction of model (14). Taking into account also
the CAM point at 100,000 hours, 6OoC, which lies at the
border of the linearity range, a value of 15.9 for the VEC and
of 1.9 hours for the Weibull distribution scale parameter is
obtained, thus leading to a lower value of electric field,
namely 28.8 kV/mm (note that the use of the EM, eq.(2),
gives a value of 28 kV/mm, quite close to that of IPM).
However, this result could not be free of objections, since
the existence of electrical threshold in the range 20-105°C
was suggested by the thermal life lines shown in Fig.9.
Hence, a value of electric field which yields infinite life at
any failure probability could exist at 60°C. In summary, it
can be argued that, for the tested EPR cables, linear models
could be successfully used for life prediction at very low
electrical stresses and for temperatures lower than 1OO"C,
being aware that design stress estimation may be
conservative, due to the expected presence of electrical
threshold.
The determination of the electric stress value
corresponding to an extreme value of failure probability,
generally considered for power cable design, e.g. 5%, can be
attained resorting to the generalized two-parameter
distribution of failure times and gradients, e.g. eqns. (17),
(18). Starting from the most conservative 50% values,
namely 28.8 kV/mm for the IPM and 28 kV/mm for the EM,
and considering p=2.1, the values of 26.7 and 25.9 kV/mm
are obtained from IPM ((eq.(l8)) and EM (eq.(17)),
respectively.
Finally, the size effect can be accounted for, resorting to
the well-known expression proposed in [32]. As an example,
2
let us consider a HV power cable with 630 mm conductor,
15 mm insulation thickness and 1000 m of length. The
maximum electrical field (i.e. the field on the inner
semiconductive shield) in the EPR power cable for 25 years
life, at 5% failure probability and 60"C, results 18.2 and 17.6
kV/mm using IPM and EM, respectively. The difference with
respect to the cable model is not too large, due to the high
value of the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution of
the voltage breakdown values, namely 34. Note that the value
of the design electrical field thus obtained is lower than the
guessed electrical threshold at 60°C (which should be larger
than 20 kV/mm), thus providing a conservative cable design.
As regards XLPE insulated cables, the electrical stress
corresponding to a failure time of 25 years at probability 5%
and temperature of 60°C can be directly calculated from the
life values at probability 50% using the 4-parameter
Exponential Threshold Probabilistic Model (eq.(9)). The
result is practically coincident with the clcctrical threshold at
60°C, i.e. 9.8 kV/mm. Hence, by choosing a design elcctric
field value lower than the threshold estimated by the
laboratory tests performed on cable models, a theoretically
infinite life woud be expected, independently of failure
probability and cable size.
According to this example, the use of EPR would
hypothetically enable a value of design electrical field for the
HV power cable higher than that of XLPE. Actually, the
effect of environmental and mechanical stresses, as well as of
technology in cable manufacturing, does not allow to refer in
practice to the above electric field values for cable design.
This holds particularly for EPR, whose performances depend
significantly on the kind of compounds and, therefore, on
cable manufacturer, but also for XLPE. Referring to the
latter, in fact, it must be recalled that recent improvements in
compound formation, additive selection and manufacturing
procedures have enabled the development of high-
performance XLPE materials, which exhibit much higher
VEC in the linear part of the life line. This has considerably
raised the values of design electric fields, up to 15-20
kV/mm, and has given the chance of extremely high voltage
ratings for HV cables, up to 500 kV [ 11. The threshold values
at the various temperatures should be, likely, much higher,
even if, in this case, the high value of VEC could obscure the
evidence of threshold at long test times, as observed for the
tested EPR.
Finally, a synthetic comparison between the tested cables
is provided by the endurance indices reported in Table VI.
On the whole, EPR shows a slightly better thermal and
multistress endurance behavior, as highlighted by the SCI
value.
TABLE VI
Synthetic comparison between endurance indices for the tested XLPE and
EPR cable models

VI. CONCILUSIONS
The test procedures described in this paper led to obtain a
thorough thermo-electrical characterization of XLPE and
EPR insulations. The most significant difference between the
electrical endurance features of the two materials is the
presence of the electrical threshold.
The existence of electrical 1hreshold for XLPE has been
clearly inferred by conventional life tests, whereas in the case
of EPR the threshold has only been supposed, particularly on
the basis of the Combined Analysis Method. Even if it must
be pointed out that this result cannot be extended
straightforwardly to full-size c ables, there is the indication
that EPR cable design could proceed according to statistical
procedures, while XLPE cable design could be free of these
constraints.
A final comparison made on &e basis of endurance indices
shows, on the whole, slightly better behavior of EPR with
respect to XLPE. However, this result is valid for the tested
materials and must be carefully extended to the two materials
in general. Actually, even if XLPE is, generally speaking, a
well defined material, its behavior is significantly affected by
curing processes and additives. This problem is even more
remarkable for EPR. In fact, the denomination EPR denotes
different kinds of ethylene-propylene compounds. Not only
cable manufacturing technologies, but also the quality of the
polymer and the type of compound and additives affect
significantly the performance of the final product. Therefore,
data derived from tests on EPR cables should be generalized
even more carefully than for XLPE.
For this reason, and due to the fact that neither cable
models, nor the way of stress application are an exact
representation of the actual conditions, it must be emphasized
that the quantities which can lie deducted from the figures
reported in this paper (e.g. electrical and thermal threshold,
endurance coefficients) cannot constitute the reference for
full-cable design. This goal can be reached applying the
approach presented in this paper to full-size cables.
VII. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The research was carried out by the financial support of
M.U.R.S.T. (40%). The authors also acknowledge Pirelli
Cavi S.p.A., and Prof. L. Simoni for his suggestions.
VIII. REFERENCES
[I] T. Kubota, Y. Takahashi, S. Sakuma, M. Watanabe, M.
Kanaoka, H. Yamanouchi, "Development of 500-kV
XLPE cables and accwories for long distance
underground transmission Line, Part I: Insulation design
of cables", IEEE Trans. Power Delively, vol. 9, no. 4,
October 1994, pp.1738-1749.
25
[2] Japanese Cable Makers Association Standard, JCS no.
329-A.
[3] International Electrical Commission Cable Standard, IEC
502.
[4] Insulated Cable Engineers Association Standard, ICEA
S-68-5 16.
[5] E. Occhini, P. Metra, G. Portinari, B. Vecellio, "Thermal,
mechanical and electrical properties of insulation power
cables", JEEE Trans. Power Apparatus and Systems,
vol. 102, July 1983, pp. 1942-1953.
[6] M. Brown, "Performance of ethylene-propylene rubber
insulation in medium and high voltage power cables",
IEEE Trans. Power Apparatus and Systems, vol. 102,
February 1983, pp. 373-381.
[7] M. Cacciari, G. C. Montanari, L. Simoni, A. Cavallini, A.
Motori, "Long-term electrical performance and life
model fitting of XLPE and EPR insulated cables", IEEE
Trans. Power Delively, vol. 7, no. 2, April 1992, pp.
634-64 1.
[SI G. Mazzanti, G. C. Montanari, A. Motori, P. Anelli,
"Comparison of electrical endurance tests performed on
cable models and strips of peeled EPR cables", IEEE
Trans. Diel. and El. Insul., vol. 2, no. 3, June 1995.
[9] M. Cacciari, G. C. Montanari, "A method to estimate the
Weibull parameters for progressively censored tests",
IEEE Trans. Reliability, vol. 36, no. 1, April 1987, pp.
87-93.
[ 101 G. C. Montanari, M. Cacciari, "Progressively-censored
aging tests on XLPE insulated cable models", IEEE
Trans. El. Jnsul., vol. 23, no. 3, June 1988, pp. 365-372.
[l I] M. Cacciari, G. C. Montanari, "Optimum design of life
tests for insulating materials, systems and components",
IEEE Trans. El. Ins., vol. 26, no. 6, December 1991, pp.
1112-1123.
[ 121 L. Simoni, Fundamentals of endurance of electrical
insulating materials, CLUEB, Bologna, Italy, 1st issue
1983,2nd issue 1994.
[13] G. C. Montanari, G. Pattini, "Application of a new
method to the analysis of combined stress results",
Proceedings of 4th ISH, n. 23.02, Athens, August 1983.
[14] G. C. Montanari, G. Pattini, "Planning of combined-
stress tests on insulating materials", Proceedings of ETG
Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 1985, pp.39-
43.
[ 151 L. Simoni, "Application of a new geometrical approach
to determination of combined-stress endurance of
insulating materials", IEEE Trans. El. Jnsul., vol. 23, no.
3, June 1988, pp. 489-492.
[16] G. C. Montanari, L. Simoni, "Aging phenomenology
and modeling", IEEE Trans. El. Insul., vol. 28, no. 5,
October 1993, pp. 755-776.
[17] W. Nelson, Accelerated testing, John Wiley & Sons,
New York, 1990.
26
[18] G. C. Montanari, G. Pattini, "Electrical aging of EPR
cables", Materials Engineering, vol. 1, no. 2, August
1990, pp. 605-613.
[19] IEC 216, Guide for the determination of thermal
endurance properties of electrical insulating materials,
1993.
[20] G.C. Montanari A. Motori, "Thermal endurance
evaluation of XLPE-insulated cables", Journal of Phys.
D: Appl. PhyS.,vol. 24, 1991, pp.1172-1181.
[21] G. Mazzanti, G.C. Montanari, A. Motori, "An insight
into thermal life testing and characterization of EPR
insulated cables", Journal of Phys. D: Appl. Phys., vol.
27, August 1994, pp. 2601-261 1.
[22] G.C. Montanari, G. Pattini, L. Simoni, "Long-term
behavior of XLPE insulated cable models", IEEE Trans.
Power Delivery, vol. PWRD-2, no. 3, July 1987, pp.
596-602.
[23] G. C. Montanari, M. Cacciari, "Electrical life threshold
models for insulating materials subjected to electrical
and multiple stresses. Part 1: Investigation and
comparison of life models", IEEE Trans. El. Insul, vol.
27, no. 5, October 1992, pp. 974-986.
[24] G. C. Montanari, M. Cacciari, "A probabilistic
insulation life model for combined thermal-electrical
stresses", IEEE Trans. El. Insul., vol. 20, no. 3, June
1985, pp. 519-522.
[25] G. C. Montanari, M. Cacciari, "Electrical life threshold
models for insulating materials subjected to electrical
and multiple stresses. Part 2: probabilistic approach to
generalized life models", IEEE Trans. El. Insul., vol. 27,
no. 5, October 1992, pp. 987-999.
[26] M. Cacciari, G. C. Montanari, "Probabilistic models for
life prediction of insulating materials", Journal of Phys.
D: Appl. Phys., vol. 23, December 1990, pp. 1592-1598.
[27] W.H. Press, B.P. Flannery, S.A. Tellkolsky, W.T.
Vetterling, Numerical recipes, Cambridge, U.K.,
Cambridge Press, 1990.
[28] G.C. Montanari, G. Mazzanti, "From thermodynamic to
phenomenological multi-stress models for insulating
materials without or with evidence of threshold",
Journal of Phys. D: Appl. Phys., vo1.27, May 1994,
pp. 1691-1702.
E291 S. Glasstone, K.J. Laidler, H.E. Eyring, The theory oj
rate processes, Mc Graw Hill, New York, 1941.
[30] G.C. Montanari, 0. Mazzanti, L. Simoni, "Endurance of
EPR-insulated cables subjected to electro-thermal
stress", submitted to IEEE Trans. Diel. and El. Insul,
1995.
[31] G. C. Montanari, M. Cacciari, "A failure probability
function for insulations with exponential life" (in
italian), Metron, vol. XLVI, no. 1-4, December 1988,
pp. 253-273.
IX. BIOGRAPHIES
Giovanni Mazzanti was bom in Bologna, Italy, on July 12th 1962 He
received his Doctor Degree in Nuclear Engineering in 1986 from the
University of Bologna, and his PhD in Electrical Engineering in 1992 from
the same University In 1992 he joined the Institute of Industrial
Electrotechnics of the University of Bologna as a Researcher Since 1992 he
is involved in studies in the field of characterization and aging investigation
of electrical insulating materials and systems He is IEEE member
Gian Carlo Montanari was born in Bologna, Italy, on November 11th
1955 He received his Doctor Degree in Electrical Engineering in 1979
from the University of Bologna. In 1983 he joined the University of
Bologna as a Researcher and has become Professor of Electrical
Technology at the same university in 1986. He has worked since 1979 in
the field of characterization and aging investigation of electrical insulating
materials and systems at the Institute of Industrial Electrotechnics of the
University of Bologna. He is also engaged in the fields of harmonic
compensation in electrical power systems, power electronics and statistics
He is IEEE senior member, member of IEC 15E and IEC TC33 and AdCom
Member of IEEE DEIS
 27
DISCU,SSION mainly the purpose of:
- determining the properties of the unaged material (e.g.
LAMBERT PIERRAT, Senior Member, IEEE (General electric strength), as a first screening of its performances;
Technical Division, Electricite de France, 37 rue Diderot, - estimating the initial value of the Voltage Endurance
38040 Grenoble Cedex, France). Coefficient (VEC) through short-time life tests at high
The methodology proposeld by the authors allows an stresses. The initial VEC gives and idea of the slope of the
objective and economical comparison of the performances of life line, enabling a first guess of lifetimes at lower stresses;
the two insulating materials (XILPE and EPR). - properly choosing lower stress levels via the knowledge
The questions and comments are the following: of initial VEC, so that long-term tests can be performed in
1) the test procedure i,s divided into two stages reasonably long times.
corresponding to two very different time scales (short-term It is useful to carry out progressively longer life tests, at
and long-term endurance). Which are the technical and lower and lower stresses, since in this way information on
economical advantages of this procedure? Is it possible to each planned test is obtained, and a continuous monitoring on
reverse the time sequence of the two stages? the development of the whole test plan is performed. It is
2) the scope of thermal life-tests is the determination of worth-while remembering that if an excessively low value of
Arrhenius model paramaters, particularly the thermal stress is chosen, a test may last for too long times. In this
threshold, which is an essential parameter for the case, the test must be stopped before failure of a significant
comparison between the two insulating materials, which amount of sample specimens, so that time and money are
have the same activation energy. In Fig. 1, we see that AT1 wasted without obtaining the desired informations (time to
(namely, the difference between the two Temperature Index failure percentiles at the test stress).
values relevant to XLPE and EPR) is equal to 10°C; which This is the reason why the two stages (namely short-term
is the statistic confidence interval of this difference, and of and long-term endurance tests) cannot be reversed.
the regression lines relevant to 1he two materials? 2) Thermal life test data reported in the paper has been
3) the electrical life tests highlight the very different processed according to IEC 216 Standards, which provide
behavior of the two materials; Figures 1 and 2 show a expressions for the determination of the lower 95%
certain agreement, dealing with the better behavior of EPR confidence limits of the points of thermal life line, and the
as regards electrical and thermal endurance. But XLPE plotting of the relevant lower unilateral curve in Arrhenius
exhibits an interesting electrical threshold (E~m11.5 graph. As an example, in Fig. 1 the thermal life line and the
kV/mm). Is it possible to detect the existence and the relevant lower 95% confidence curve are plotted in Arrhenius
eventual value of a possible ET for EPR? graph for the tested EPR [I] (diagnostic property: electric
4) the use of probabilistic life models (EM and IPM, see strength; end point: 50% decrease with respect to the initial
eqns.(l7), (18)) leads, at a given failure probability equal to value).
5 % , to electric field levels no1 very different (respectively According to IEC 216, the lower 95% confidence limit of
25.9 and 26.7 kV/mm). The two models have the same TI, i.e. TC, must also be calculated since the value of TC
general form and their a-priori shape parameter (the same gives a quantitative evaluation of the uncertainty of the
for both models, i.e. pa2.1) corresponds approximately to a estimated value of TI. Considering for both tested materials
linearly-increasing failure-rate. The previous results have the same diagnostic property and end-point of Fig. 1, the value
been obtained introducing into ihe models very conservative found for TC was 108.6"C in the case of EPR (TI= 11 I'C),
characteristic 50% values (respmively 28 kV/mm and 28.8 and 98.7"C for XLPE (TI=lOl"C) [2]. Thus, due to the small
kV/mm). Which is the sensitivity of the results, if these difference between TC and TI in both cases, it can be
characteristic values and the given failure probability are confirmed that the difference between the TIS of the two
changed? materials is statistically significant.
I thank the autors for their answer and comments to this
discussion. Regression
-I
95x Confidence - - - - -

G. Mazzanti, G.C. Montanari. We thank Dr.

Pierrat for his interesting questions, which help to clarify
some points of the paper.

1) The endurance test procedure is basically splitted into

two stages, since short-term tests, involving relatively short
test-times and few specimens, tenable a correct planning of Fig. 1. Thermal-endurancegraph derived, for the tested EPR,
long-term tests, which require much longer test-times and according to IEC 2 16. Property electric strength, end-point
higher costs. Focusing now on short-term tests, they have 50%, test temperatures 160, 150, 130, 120°C (after [I]).
28
3) When a material features high values of both initial
electric strength and VEC, the eventual presence of an
electrical threshold cannot be usually detected by
conventional life tests (falling in the stage of the long-term
endurance testing procedure: see point 1 above) in reasonable
test times; this holds generally even if the threshold value is
high. Therefore, in these cases, information on the existence
of the threqhold may come from non-conventional tests which
investigate 'more closely the degradation mechanisms.
Currently, the authors of the paper are performing studies to
detect a threshold related to deep trapping of space charges,
following the theory described in [3].
In case that a threshold is not detected, cable design must
proceed according to probabilistic criteria, even if a threshold
in fact does exist and can be somehow indirectly guessed.
4) A probabilistic life model enables the calculation of
any chosen life percentile corresponding to a given stress
(e.g. electric field and/or temperature), or, conversely, of the
stress corresponding to any given life percentile (which could
be called "target percentile"). Anyway, the scale parameter of
the model is needed, and is obtained resorting to a life
percentile (which could be called "starting percentile")
derived directly from experimental results (usually the 50th
percentile). Different 50% starting percentile values were
available in the case of EPR cable models, according to
different ways of treating life data. In the perspective of a
design procedure, the most conservative approach was
followed, and the starting percentiles corresponding to the
lowest value of VEC were chosen.
Probabilistic life models are affected by different
quantities, as can be proved by calculations. For example, let
us assume here, as reference levels, the electric field values
determined for EPR cable models (in the case of the most
conservative VEC) with a design life of 25 years at 5%
failure probability; the values obtained by EM (eq. (17)) and
IPM (eq.(18)), reported in the paper, are 25.9 and 26.7
kV/mm, respectively. Probabilistic life models are sensitive to
the value of failure probability of the target percentile: the
lower the failure probability, the lower the design field.
Indeed, if failure probability is decreased from 5% to 1%,
then electric field levels diminish to 24.6 and 25.4 kV/mm,
respectively. Also, probabilistic life models are sensitive to
design life; the longer is design life, the lower is electric field
level. Indeed, if design life is raised from 25 to 50 years, at
constant 5% failure probability, then field levels decrease to
24.3 and 25.5 kV/mm, respectively. Finally, probabilistic life
models are sensitive to the value of Weibull shape parameter,
(3. If (3 decreases, experimental lifetimes become more
scattered and, consequently, the field levels will diminish
with respect to the reference ones. Indeed, if p decreases from
2.1 to 1, then field levels at probability 5% are lowered to
23.7 and 24.5 kV/mm respectively.
From the comparison of these results, it can be concluded
that the two models have a very similar behavior and provide
quite close estimates for any value of failure probability,
design life and shape parameter.
REFERENCES
[I] G. Mazzanti, G.C. Montanari, A. Motori, "An Insight into
Thermal Life Testing and Characterization of EPR Insulated
Cables", Joumal of Physics D: Applied Physics, Vol. 27,
pp.2601-2611, 1994.
[2] G.C. Montanari, A. Motori, "Thermal Endurance
Evaluation of XLPE Insulated Cables", Joumal of Physics D:
Applied Physics, Vol. 24, pp. 1172-1 181, 1991.
[3] L. Dissado, G. Mazzanti, G.C Montanari, "The
Incorporation of Space Charge Degradation into the Life
Model for Electrical Insulating Materials", IEEE Trans. on
Diel. and El. Ins., Vol. 2, n.6, pp. 1147-1 158, December
1995.