Decision Science

Ans 1.

Introduction

A Tree Diagram is a way of visually representing hierarchy in a tree-like structure.

Typically the structure of a Tree Diagram consists of elements such as a root
node, a member that has no superior/parent. Then there are the nodes, which
are linked together with line connections called branches that represent the
relationships and connections between the members. Finally, the leaf nodes (or
end-nodes) are members who have no children or child nodes.

Tree Diagrams are often used:

To show family relations and descent.

In taxonomy, the practice and science of classification.

In evolutionary science, to show the origin of species.

In computer science and mathematics.

In businesses and organisations for managerial purposes.

Concept and analysis

A tree diagram is a new management planning tool that depicts the hierarchy of
tasks and subtasks needed to complete and objective. The tree diagram starts
with one item that branches into two or more, each of which branch into two or
more, and so on.

The purpose of the tree diagram is to explore ways and means to achieve an
objective, develop a list of alternate means to reach the desired situation in a
sequential order and to present them in a visual form.
 
The most important application of the tree diagram is for devising solutions for
problems. It helps one to develop a systematic step by step strategy to achieve an
objective. It is also useful in monitoring the implementation of solutions by taking
care of accomplishment of means at different levels.
Three airlines operate in the town of Srinagar. Among the three airlines is Amira
airline, which constitutes about 50% of all of the flights. It is observed by Biyas
airline, which accounts for 30% of the flights, and Chinar airline, having the rest of
the 20% of the flights running in the city. The prices of the flights being on time
are 80%, 65%, and 40% respectively.

Yet any other aspect of statistical records comes inside the form of a selection
tree.

The opportunity diagram allows us to calculate the opportunity that was airline
Amira. The records interpreted from the opportunity tree diagram are as follows.

Event A helps to represent the scheduled flights for airline Amira.

Event B is a clear reflection of the scheduled flights for airline Biyas.

Event C reflects upon the remaining flights which belong to the airline Chinar.

The probability of the flights is:

P (Amira) = 0.50

P (Biyas) = 0.30

P (Chinar) = 0.20

When considering the posterior probabilities,

P (E|Amira)= 0.80

P (E|Biyas) = 0.65

P (|Chinar) = 0.40

Airline A has 50% of all the scheduled flights, airline B has 30%, and airline C has
20%. Their on-time rates are 80%, 65%, and 40%, respectively.

Let us consider,

Event A represents scheduled flights for Airline A.

Event B represents scheduled flights for Airline B.

The occasion C represents scheduled flights for Airline C.

The occasion E represents that flight left in on time.

There is a need to locate the probability of the flight that left Srinagar to be of
airline Amira.

It’s far because of the very same motive that one has to determine P (A|E)
Putting the values received from the posterior chance into the Bayes's law
formulation, it presents with,

By the definition of the conditional probability,

P(the flight is by A | the flight is on-time) =

P(A∣E) = P(E∣A)×P(A)

P(E∣B)×P(B)+P(E∣C)×P(C)P(E∣A)×P(A)

P ((A|E)= (0.80*0.50)/(0.80*0.50)+(0.65*0.30)+(0.40*0.20)= 0.59259

Hence, the flight that left Srinagar to belong to airline Amira stands at 0.5926.

= 59.26%.

Conclusion

A tree diagram is a tool in the fields of general mathematics, probability, and

statistics that helps calculate the number of possible outcomes of an event or
problem, and to cite those potential outcomes in an organized way.
A tree diagram is a new management planning tool that depicts the hierarchy of
tasks and subtasks needed to complete and objective. The tree diagram starts
with one item that branches into two or more, each of which branch into two or
more, and so on.

ANS.2

Introduction
An indicator is a variable that is used to tap a concept, regardless of whether the
concept poses as an independent or dependent variable. Hypotheses assert a
relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable.

A variable represents a concept or an item whose magnitude can be represented

by a number, i.e. measured quantitatively. Variables are called variables because
they vary, i.e. they can have a variety of values. Thus a variable can be considered
as a quantity which assumes a variety of values in a particular problem.

Concept and analysis

variable represents a concept or an item whose magnitude can be represented by

a number, i.e. measured quantitatively. Variables are called variables because
they vary, i.e. they can have a variety of values. Thus a variable can be considered
as a quantity which assumes a variety of values in a particular problem.

A variable is any property, a characteristic, a number, or a quantity that increases

or decreases over time or can take on different values (as opposed to constants,
such as n, that do not vary) in different situations. When conducting research,
experiments often manipulate variables.
An independent variable is a characteristic that you manipulate to see its effect
on dependent variables.

It’s called an independent variable because you can set its value independently of
everything else in the experiment.

A dependent variable is the characteristic you measure to see how it responds to

the independent variable.

The term dependent variable makes sense because the value of this variable

is dependent on the independent variable. The dependent variable is also known
as the responding variable or the output variable.

You need to measure the value of your dependent variable to find out the results
of any experiment.

In contrast, you don’t need to measure the value of your independent variable,

because you already know what its value is—after all, you set it yourself.
Regression analysis is the first algorithm you need to master as a data scientist. It
is one of the most commonly used predictive modeling techniques in data
analytics. Even today, most companies use regression techniques to enable
decision-making at scale.

Regression analysis is the foundation of machine learning and data science. It’s
important to be aware of the different types of regression analysis techniques and
when they can be applied. 

There are various evaluation metrics that are considered after applying the
model. Though there are assumptions required to be tested before applying the
model we can always modify the variables using various mathematical methods
and increase model performance.

Conclusion

 A variable chosen at one point in time may become obsolete later if new factors
come into play and may therefore need to be modified or changed. Therefore, it
is important to ensure that the latest approved version of the variable is used.

Sometimes, there is more than one way to measure a concept. The variables and
classifications chosen to measure a concept will also need to take into account
factors such as the ease of obtaining the information required, the respondent
burden imposed, the collection method, the context in which the question(s)
must be asked, the processing of the data (especially editing, imputation and
weighting techniques), whether the information can be obtained from
administrative records, and the costs associated with collection and processing.

ANS 3a

Introduction

The Reels feature is a new Instagram tool that lets users create and share short-
form video content. Reels, like TikTok, lets you record and edit 15-second videos,
add sounds and effects, and then share the videos either with your followers or, if
you have a public account, with the larger Instagram community via the Explore
page.
You may be wondering why you’d use Instagram Reels if you’re already using
TikTok. For many Instagram influencers, Instagram Reels just makes sense. After
all, you’ve already put in the time and energy to build a following on Instagram. 
Concept and analysis
Instagram Reels allows users to create engaging, fun, and short videos using a
catalog of music and user-generated Reels media on Instagram. 
Reels are short, entertaining videos on Instagram, where you can express your
creativity and bring your brand to life.
If you’ve been using TikTok already, Reels will feel very easy to hop on board
and understand how to post and use them. If Reels are new to you, the one
benefit that can ease your way into them is utilizing ideas you already use in
your Instagram Stories or IGTV videos. Since Reels are 30 seconds max, you
can come up with a quick idea to post and have more content to add to your
feed.

For 15 people out of 25 to love Instagram reels, the probability stands at,

P= 15/25= 0.6

For 20 of the 25 people to show appropriation for Instagram reels, the probability
stands at,

P= 20/25= 0.8

Conclusion

Instagram Reels are fun, short-form videos well-suited to share entertaining,

educational, and inspiring content on the app. 

Similar to TikTok, Reels are displayed in vertical format for an endless, scrollable
feed.

Instagram Reels are now available all over the world, so it was a matter of time
when the platform would roll out Instagram Reels ads. It means that now you and
your brand can leverage this engaging content type and reach new audiences on
Instagram.

.ANS 3b

Introduction

Bharat Darshan Special Tourist Train a collaborative venture by the Indian

Railways and the Union Ministry of Tourism and Culture are all-inclusive budget-
friendly packages including cities such as Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Nishkalank
Mahadev Sea Temple in Bhavnagar, Jaipur, and Statue of Unity.

Whilst showcasing the spiritual wonders of India, the purpose of Bharat Darshan
Special Tourist Trains is to introduce the culture of different parts of the country
to people and provide an enhanced experience to explore beautiful historical and
devotional cities of India

Concepts and analysis

Bharat Darshan is a joint project of the Indian Railways and the Union ministry of
tourism and culture, which organizes “the world's cheapest and most
comfortable” tour packages from time to time.

Bharat Darshan Special Tourist Trains which initially started from Rewa station in
Madhya Pradesh, now voyages through Agra, Mathura, Haridwar, Rishikesh,
Amritsar and Vaishno Devi Shrine. To provide comfort to the passengers, a
boarding facility will also be provided at Satna, Katni, Jabalpur, Narsinghpur, Itarsi,
Hoshangabad, Habibganj, Vidisha, Ganj Basoda, Bina and Jhansi stations. And it
goes without saying, Bharat Darshan is one of the most popular tour packages to
explore various destinations. Both doses of Covid-19 vaccination are mandatory
for Bharat Darshan Special Tourist Trains package.
The probability for the organization to get more than 12000 hits lies at,

P= 0.91

The probability for the organization to get fewer hits than 9000 lies at,

P= 1-(9000/10000)

= 0.1

Conclusion

The Bharat Darshan train is a special tourist train that's operated by Indian
Railways. India is a kaleidoscope of culture, religion, beliefs, traditions, and
heritage amongst others. Since time immemorial, ruling empires have built and
left behind magnificent temples, mosques, and churches as architectural
wonders, many of which are visited by pilgrims even today. Enhancing their
experience, IRCTC recently launched Bharat Darshan, a well culminated rail tour
which touches base with some of the most famous temples across the country.

END