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  • Taller 1

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    Luis miguel de la cruz
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    Excel software incluido

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    TALLER 1

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    Excel software incluido

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    6 views10 pages

    Taller 1

    Uploaded by

    Luis miguel de la cruz
    Excel software incluido

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 10

    PRONOSTICO

    PROMEDIO MOVIL ERROR DEL


    SEMANA KM SIMPLE PRONOSTICO
    1 25 25 0
    2 29 14.5 21.75
    3 27 9 24
    4 31 7.75 29.0625
    5 24 4.8 23.04
    6 28 4.66666666666667 27.222222222
    7 26 3.71428571428571 25.469387755
    8 30 3.75 29.53125
    9 28 3.11111111111111 27.654320988
    10 23 2.3 22.77
    11 30 2.72727272727273 29.752066116
    12 29 2.41666666666667 28.798611111
    13 26 2 25.846153846
    14 28 2 27.857142857
    15 24 1.6 23.893333333
    16 27 1.6875 26.89453125
    17 29 1.70588235294118 28.899653979
    18 25 1.38888888888889 24.922839506
    19 38 2 37.894736842
    20 30 1.5 29.925
    DESVIACION MEDIA
    ABSOLUTA DEL ERROR
    0
    21.75
    24
    29.0625
    23.04
    27.2222222222222
    25.469387755102
    29.53125
    27.6543209876543
    22.77
    29.7520661157025
    28.7986111111111
    25.8461538461538
    27.8571428571429
    23.8933333333333
    26.89453125
    28.8996539792388
    24.9228395061728
    37.8947368421053
    29.925
    KM
    PRONOSTICO PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE
    Linear (PRONOSTICO PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE )
    PRONOSTICO
    PROMEDIO MOVIL ERROR DEL DESVIACION MEDIA
    SEMANAS KM PONDERADO PRONOSTICO ABSOLUTA DEL ERROR
    1 25 25 0 0
    2 29 58 43.5 43.5
    3 27 81 72 72
    4 31 124 116.25 116.25
    5 24 120 115.2 115.2
    6 28 168 163.3333333333 163.333333333333
    7 26 182 178.2857142857 178.285714285714
    8 30 240 236.25 236.25
    9 28 252 248.8888888889 248.888888888889
    10 23 230 227.7 227.7
    11 30 330 327.2727272727 327.272727272727
    12 29 348 345.5833333333 345.583333333333
    13 26 338 336 336
    14 28 392 390 390
    15 24 360 358.4 358.4
    16 27 432 430.3125 430.3125
    17 29 493 491.2941176471 491.294117647059
    18 25 450 448.6111111111 448.611111111111
    19 38 722 720 720
    20 30 600 598.5 598.5
    800

    700

    600

    500

    KM
    400 PRONOSTICO PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO
    Linear (PRONOSTICO PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO )

    300

    200

    100

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
    Pronostico = (alfa)(Demanda real anterior) + (1-alfa)( Pronostico anterior)

    PRONOSTICO
    suavizacion exponencial ERROR DEL DESVIACION MEDIA
    SEMANAS KM PRONOSTICO ABSOLUTA DEL ERROR
    1 25 25 0 0
    2 29 25 4 4
    3 27 29 -2 2
    4 31 27 4 4
    5 24 31 -7 7
    6 28 24 4 4
    7 26 28 -2 2
    8 30 26 4 4
    9 28 30 -2 2
    10 23 28 -5 5
    11 30 23 7 7
    12 29 30 -1 1
    13 26 29 -3 3
    14 28 26 2 2
    15 24 28 -4 4
    16 27 24 3 3
    17 29 27 2 2
    18 25 29 -4 4
    19 38 25 13 13
    20 30 38 -8 8
    α= 0.9
    40

    35

    30

    25

    KM
    20 PRONOSTICO suavizacion exponencial
    Linear (PRONOSTICO suavizacion exponencial )

    15

    10

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

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