TUGAS MANAJEMEN OPERASI SESI 7

Sulaksana Adi 21218250

4.1
Week Of Pint Used
August 31 360
September 7 389
September 14 410
September 21 381
September 28 368
Oktober 5 374

a. Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3 week moving average.
Time Response Moving Total(n=3) Moving
Average(n=3)
August 31 360 NA NA
September 7 389 NA NA
September 14 410 NA NA
September 21 381 360+389+410=1159 1159/3=368,3
September 28 368 389+410+381=1180 1180/3=393,3
October 5 374 410+381+368=1159 1159/3=386,3
October 12 NA 381+368+374=1123 1123/3=374,3

b. Use a 3 week weighted moving average, with weights of 0,1, 0,3, and 0,6, using 0,6 for the most recent
week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12
Time Response Weighted Moving Average
Auguts 31 360 NA
September 7 389 NA
September 14 410 NA
September 21 381 F4=0,1(360)+0,3(389)+0,6(410)=398,7
September 28 368 F5=0,1(389)+0,3(410)+0,6(381)=390,5
October 5 374 F6=0,1(410)+0,3(381)+0,6(368)=376,1
October 12 NA F7=0,1(381)+0,3(368)+0,6(374)=372,9

c. Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August
31 of 360 and α=0,2
Formula : Ft+1 = αAt + (1-α)Ft
Time Response(At) Forecast(Ft)
Auguts 31 360 360
September 7 389 F2=360+0,2(360-360)=360
September 14 410 F3=360+0,2(389-360)=365,8
September 21 381 F4=365,8+0,2(410-365,8)=374,6
September 28 368 F5=374,6+0,2(381-374,6)=375,9
October 5 374 F6=375,9+0,2(368-375,9)=374,3
 October 12 NA F7=374,3+0,2(374-374,3)=374,2
4.2
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Demand 7 9 5 9 13 8 12 13 9 11 7

a. Plot the above data on graph. Do you observ any trend, cydes, or random variations?

Demand/Year
14
13 13
12 12
11
10
9 9 9
8 8
7 7
6
5
4

0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11

Answer A Answer B Answer C

b. Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average. Plot your
forecast on the same graph as the original data
Year Demand Moving Total(n=3) Moving Average(n=3)
1 7 NA NA
2 9 NA NA
3 5 NA NA
4 9 7+9+5=21 21/3=7
5 13 9+5+9=23 23/3=7,67
6 8 5+9+13=27 27/3=9
7 12 9+13+8=30 30/3=10
8 13 13+8+12=33 33/3=11
9 9 8+12+13=33 33/3=11
10 11 12+13+9=34 34/3=11,3
11 7 13+9+11=33 33/3=11
12 NA 9+11+7=27 27/3=9
 c. Strating in year 4 and going to year 12. Forecasting demand using a 3 year moving average with
weight of 0,1, 0,3, 0,6 using for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same graph
YEAR DEMAND 3 YERS WMA
1 7 NA
2 9 NA
3 5 NA
4 9 7 x 0,1+9 x 0,3+5 x 0,6=6,4
5 13 9 x 0,1+5 x 0,3+9 x 0,6=7,8
6 8 5 x 0,1+9 x 0,3+13 x 0,6=11
7 12 9 x 0,1+13 x 0,3+8 x 0,6=9,6
8 13 13 x 0,1+8 x 0,3+12 x 0,6=10,9
9 9 8 x 0,1+12 x 0,3+13 x 0,6=12,2
10 11 12 x 0,1+13 x 0,3+9 x 0,6=10,5
11 7 13 x 0,1+9 x 0,3+11 x 0,6=10,6
12 NA 9 x 0,1+11 x 0,3+7 x 0,6=8,4

Chart 4.2
14

12

10

0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12

A B C

d. As you compare forecast with the original data, which seems to give the better results?
Moving averages are good, while not all data
4.3 Refer to problem 4.2 Develop a forecast for year 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with a=0,4 and
forecast for year 1 of 6, plot your new forecast on a graph with the actual data and the naïve forecast Based on a
visual inspection, which forecast is better?
Year Demand Naïve Forecast Exponential
1 7 NA 6
2 9 7 6,4
3 5 9 7,4
4 9 5 6,4
5 13 9 7,4
6 8 13 9,6
7 12 8 9
8 13 12 10,2
9 9 13 11,2
10 11 9 10,3
11 7 11 10,6
12 NA 7 9,2
.

Chart 4.2 and 4.3

14

12

10

0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12

A B C
Exponential Naive Forecast

The Naïve line looks up and down and one of the data looks down and makes on good, Exponential lines are
better because up always goes up, even though it doesn’t go too far. So Exponential is better.
4.4 A check processing center uses exponential smoothing to forecast the number ofincoming checks each month.
The number of checks received in June wa 40 milion, while the forecast was 42 milion. A smoting constant of 0,2
is used.

Month Checks Forecast

June 40 M 42 M

a. What is the forecast for July?

Forecast July = 40 x 0,2 + 42 x 0,8 = 41,6 M

Month Checks Forecast

June 40 M 42 M
July 41,6 M
b. If the center received 45 Milion checks in July, what would he the forecast for August?
Forecast August = 45 x 0,2 + 41,6 x 0,8 = 42,3 M
Month Checks Forecast
June 40 M 42 M
July 45 M 41,6 M
August 42,3 M

c. What might this be an inappropriate foecasting method for this situation?

The banking industry has a great deal of seasonally in its processing requirements.
4.5 The Carbondle Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the
anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as followa.
Year Mileage
 1 3.000
2 4.000
3 3.400
4 3.800
5 3.700
a. Forecast the mileage for next year (6 year) using a 2 year moving average
th

Year 6 = 3.800+3.700/2 = 3.750

Mileage for year 6 is 3.750
b. Find the MAD based on the on the 2 year moving average, (Hint : You will have only 3 years of matched
data)
Year Mileage 2 MA Absolute Deviation

1 3.000 NA NA
2 4.000 NA NA
3 3.400 3.500 100
4 3.800 3.700 100
5 3.700 3.600 100
MAD 300
=100
3
c. Use a weighted 2 year moving average with weights of 0,4 and 0,6 to forecast next year’s mileage. (The
weight of 0,6 is for the most wecent year) What MAD results from using this approach to forecasting?
(Hint: you will have only 3 years of matched data)

Year Mileage Weighted Moved Average Absolute Deviation

1 3.000 NA NA
2 4.000 NA NA
3 3.400 F3=0,4(3.000)+0,6(4.000)=3.600 200
4 3.800 F4=0,4(4.000)+0,6(3.400)=3.640 160
5 3.700 F5=0,4(3.400)+0,6(3.800)=3.640 60
MAD 420
=140
3
d. Compute the forecast for year 6 using exponential smoothing, an initial forecast for year 1 of 3.000 miles,
and α=0,5
Answer: Ft = Ft-1+α(At-1 – Ft-1)

Year Mileage Forecast

1 3.000 3.000

2 4.000 F2=3.000+0,5(3.000-3.000)=3.000

3 3.400 F3=3.000+0,5(4.000-3.000)=3.500

4 3.800 F4=3.500+0,5(3.400-3.500)=3.450

5 3.700 F5=3.450+0,5(3.800-3.450)=3.625

6 NA F6=3.625+0,5(3.700-3.625)=3.662,5