Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Caroline E. White
University of San Diego, Hahn School of Nursing and Health Science and
the Betty and Bob Beyster Institute for Nursing Research, Advanced Practice, and Simulation
Approved by:
_________________________
Capstone Advisor
_________________________
Date
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Abstract
Introduction. During the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous data sources were created to track
disparate aspects of the pandemic. New insights can be discovered by combining multiple data
COVID-19 on the U.S. population, it is crucial to study the factors that influence COVID-19
Methods. Three COVID-19 datasets were analyzed using Tableau, and a dashboard was created
to show the geographic impact of the pandemic from January 2020 to March 2022, along with
Results. Six visualizations were created for the dashboard, including an animated heat map
showing COVID-19 infections over time, annotated line graphs on cases and deaths over time,
stacked side-by-side bar graphs on cases and deaths over time by age group and vaccination
status, and a stacked bar graph on comorbid COVID-19 deaths by health condition and age.
Discussion. The animated heat map shows the spread of COVID-19 over time, showing how
geographic location and time affected the number of U.S. infections. The annotated line graphs
and stacked side-by-side bar graphs (on cases and deaths by age group and vaccination status)
show that while COVID-19 vaccination is not a perfect public health tool, mass vaccination is
associated with a significant reduction in COVID-19 mortality. The dashboard also demonstrates
that while age is a risk factor for COVID-19 mortality, young unvaccinated people and
visualization
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Background
As of May 18, 2022, there have been over 82 million COVID-19 cases and over 997,000
COVID-19 deaths in the United States (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC],
2022b). One in 330 Americans has now died from COVID-19, and this number is likely an
undercount (CDC, 2022a; Smith-Schoenwalder, 2022). Despite the massive death toll, only
66.5% of Americans – and 70.7% of those five and older – have been fully vaccinated (CDC,
2022b).
study the factors influencing the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. For example, factors
associated with an uptick in cases could be evaluated to determine how to avoid future
Statement of Problem
However, few existing dashboards utilize animation features to show how COVID-19 has spread
geographically over time dynamically. Additionally, existing graphics that depict COVID-19
cases or deaths over time are not usually overlaid with supplemental information on the factors
that influence the trajectory of the pandemic, such as vaccine rollout events, lockdown orders,
and the introduction of new variants to the U.S. The featured COVID-19 dashboard includes this
supporting information as context so the viewer can visualize the relationships between
Project Purpose
This project aims to deliver a quality visualization tool for analyzing the spread of SARS-
PICOT Question
Outcome. The outcomes of interest are the COVID-19 infection rate and mortality rate in
Time. The data span from late January 2020 to early March 2022.
Literature Review
A literature search was conducted in PubMed using the following search terms: (COVID-
19) AND (vaccin*) AND (factor*) AND (influenc* OR impact* OR affect*) AND (case* OR
infection* OR death* OR mortality) AND (“United States” OR “U.S.” OR US). The initial
search results consisted of 46 articles. Articles were limited to free full-text reviews and multi-
site studies from 2022. Studies not involving COVID-19 in humans were excluded. Excluded
studies also consisted of those taking place outside of the U.S. and those that focused only on
specific populations such as prisoners, patients with specific health conditions, pregnant females,
and individuals in specific occupations. Some of the excluded article topics were COVID-19
post-acute symptoms, allergic reactions to vaccines, and vaccine immune responses. Ten articles
were included in the literature review. Each of the selected articles discussed factors that
influence the COVID-19 infection rate or mortality, including vaccine efficacy, demographic
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factors, politics and vaccine hesitancy, and public health factors such as lockdowns and social
distancing.
infections. The first, Kugeler et al. (2022), sought to estimate the number of symptomatic
breakthrough infections in the U.S. from January 2021 to July 2021. Using a tool in Microsoft
Excel, the researchers found that approximately 199,000 symptomatic breakthrough infections
had occurred during that time (Kugeler et al., 2022). The second article by Lipsitch et al. (2022)
reviews the approaches being used to measure vaccine efficacy and breakthrough rates, and it
describes the causes of breakthrough infections. Lipsitch et al. (2022) explain, “Whether a
breakthrough infection occurs when a vaccinated host is exposed to an infectious person depends
on whether the immune response present in that person at the moment of exposure is sufficient to
abort or rapidly control the infection” (p. 59). Because immune responses peak and then wane
over time, the protection provided by vaccines also decreases over time, and breakthrough
infections become more likely to occur. In addition, according to Lipsitch et al. (2022), older
adults are at greater risk of breakthrough infections because their antibody response is lower.
Two articles from the search discussed demographic factors that influence COVID-19
infection and mortality. Scott et al. (2022) described the impact of COVID-19 on an
that “Low-income Latinos in Southern California were generally hesitant to get a COVID-19
vaccine. Culturally sensitive vaccine promotion campaigns need to address the concerns of
minority populations who experience increased morbidity and mortality from COVID-19” (Scott
et al., 2022, p. 1). Like Scott et al. (2022), Upchurch et al. (2022) also discuss racial and ethnic
differences in COVID-19 infection rates. However, Upchurch et al. (2022) also examine the
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intersection of gender with infection. Upchurch et al. (2022) found roughly equal numbers of
men and women tested positive for COVID-19 in their sample. They also found that Native
American, Black, and Hispanic women were more likely to become infected than non-Hispanic
White women (Upchurch et al., 2022). This trend was also found in men. Women over 40 and
men over 55 were less likely to become infected with COVID-19 (Upchurch et al., 2022). For
men only, being employed increased the likelihood of infection, and men with one or more
chronic illnesses were less likely to get infected (Upchurch et al., 2022).
Racial, ethnic, and economic demographic factors coincide with another factor
influencing COVID-19 infection and mortality: vaccine hesitancy. Rather than studying the
effect of race on infection, Lin et al. (2022) examined racial disparities in survey participants’
trust in vaccination and intent to get vaccinated. Lin et al. (2022) found:
White support for the vaccines began at 65% before the public realized the enormity of
the outbreak, peaked at 74% in April 2020 after the near-nationwide lockdown, dipped
into the low-50s in September and October, and then gradually reclimbed to where it
started. Conversely, minority responses were more erratic. Blacks started at 58%,
dropped more than 20% in two months with persistent fluctuations, skidded to its lowest
at 27% by late October, and rebounded to 47% the following February. Hispanics began
similarly to Whites at 67%, slipped to its lowest point in October (the same time as
As a possible explanation for the difference in hesitancy among races, Lin et al. (2022) cite the
Tuskegee Syphilis Study and Nazi concentration camp experiments as historical reasons for
Four other studies from the literature review also examine vaccine hesitancy. Akpoji et
al. (2022) discuss that pharmacists, the most trusted type of healthcare professionals, may hold
power in convincing people to get vaccinated. Additionally, Albrecht (2022) reviews the impact
of political ideology on vaccination rates. Albrecht (2022) states, “In counties with a high
percentage of Republican voters, vaccination rates were significantly lower and COVID-19 cases
and deaths per 100,000 residents were much higher” (p. 1). He also says that to restore
confidence in science and medicine, people must overcome political divisiveness. Similar to the
article by Albrecht (2022), Roberts et al. (2022) examined demographic, political, and behavioral
factors and their association with vaccine hesitancy. Roberts et al. (2022) state:
We found that younger age, non-White race, lower income, less education, more
conservative and less liberal social attitudes, and less adherence to COVID-19 safety
behaviors and lower approval of government restrictions were common correlates of anti-
vax attitudes in general and COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy specifically (pp. 12-13).
Perhaps younger people are less likely to perceive COVID-19 as a threat, and less educated
individuals with certain political ideologies are more receptive to misinformation and conspiracy
theories. Relatedly, the review by Farhart et al. (2022) discusses how the spread of
conspiratorial predispositions, and COVID-19 conspiracy theory belief are the strongest and
most consistent predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy” (Farhart et al., 2022, p. 136).
However, contrary to other studies, Farhart et al. (2022) also found that political ideology and
partisanship were not consistent predictors of hesitancy after accounting for conspiracy theory
The final article included in the literature search concerned social distancing. Lau et al.
(2022) studied Georgia residents’ adherence to social distancing measures before and after its
statewide lockdown. Using a machine learning model, Lau et al. (2022) discovered:
Although it subsequently increased after the lockdown was lifted, it only bounced back to
This shows that while statewide lockdowns are not flawless, they are very effective at slowing
infection rates.
websites such as the CDC and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) were also reviewed. The
objective was to create a dashboard using national data, so state websites and the World Health
Organization (WHO) were excluded from the research. Unfortunately, the CDC and NIH did not
have a publicly available dataset with cases and deaths by county for every day of the pandemic,
so the search was expanded to academic and news organizations reporting on the pandemic. The
New York Times COVID-19 data repository on GitHub was identified as a valuable data source
for the dashboard. Two additional data sources were later selected from the CDC in line with the
dashboard’s theme of infections and mortality: one on comorbidities and one on cases and deaths
were discovered that were related to the capstone project’s infections and mortality theme. For
example, one relevant CDC dashboard is “Trends in COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the United
States, by County-level Population Factors” (CDC, 2022c). This dashboard shows U.S. COVID-
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or All Counties). In both the cases and deaths graphs, cases and deaths start much higher for
metropolitan counties, then around August 2020, the two categories swap (CDC, 2022c).
Another pertinent CDC dashboard is “County Vaccination Coverage and Other Outcomes”
(CDC, 2022d). The primary graphic is a heat map with a two-color gradient grid as its legend.
The heat map shows, for each county, the percent of the population that is fully vaccinated and
the cases per 100,000 people (CDC, 2022d). Although slightly unintuitive, the heat map is
Methods
This project utilizes three publicly available COVID-19 datasets. All three are static
The first data source is an ongoing New York Times COVID-19 data repository on
GitHub (The New York Times, 2020). This repository’s U.S. Counties dataset contains the
cumulative total of COVID-19 cases and deaths by state and county for every day of the
pandemic. For this dataset, “cases” is the sum of confirmed and probable cases, and “deaths” is
the sum of confirmed and probable deaths. Confirmed cases and deaths are those verified with a
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positive specimen test, and probable cases and deaths are those diagnosed by a healthcare
provider without a specimen test result. Retrieved March 8, 2022, the extracted dataset spans
During the initial Tableau data analysis, a problem was encountered with the data. It
became apparent that the data reflected cumulative cases and deaths. To be helpful for the
dashboard, the data needed to be transformed into new daily cases and deaths. Unfortunately, a
subsequent literature search was unsuccessful in finding another publicly available dataset
containing the number of cases and deaths for each U.S. county during each day of the
pandemic. With over 2 million rows, the New York Times dataset was too large to cleanse in
Excel. Even if Excel could handle the file size, there would be no quick, simple way to transform
the cumulative totals into new cases and deaths using Excel. Because of this, Python was used to
transform the data. The Python code used for this project was based on the work of David West
the New York Times U.S. Counties .csv file was retrieved. Then, part of West’s code was used
to cleanse and transform the data (West, 2021b). All data from the U.S. territories were excluded,
and two new columns were added to the dataset, representing new cases and new deaths. The
number of new cases was found for each county by subtracting a given day’s total cases by the
previous day’s total cases, then filling null values with zeroes. Python enabled this to happen
relatively instantly for all counties for each day of the pandemic. Once this was done, the Pandas
library tail() function was used to examine the last five values of the dataset to verify the number
of rows and cross-check those last values for accuracy. This function revealed that the dataset
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was 2.28 million rows long, which was accurate, and the last five rows of the dataset had the
The Pandas library to_csv() function was used to export the transformed dataset. Next,
the entire text file was opened in Visual Studio. The values of new cases for various U.S.
counties and dates were cross-checked at random. The dataset then accurately displayed new
CDC Dataset: Rates of COVID-19 Cases or Deaths by Age Group and Vaccination Status
The second dataset, “Rates of COVID-19 Cases or Deaths by Age Group and
Vaccination Status,” is from the CDC website (CDC, 2021a). This dataset contains weekly
COVID-19 infection and mortality data by age group and vaccination status. For this dataset,
“cases” and “deaths” refer to all COVID-19 cases and deaths confirmed with a positive specimen
test. The age groups are 5-11, 12-17, 18-29, 30-49, 50-64, 65-79, and 80 or older. The dataset
only contains data for the 5-11 age group beginning December 2021, about a month after the age
group became eligible for the vaccine on October 29, 2021 (U.S. Food and Drug Administration
[FDA], 2021b). For this dataset, “vaccinated” individuals refer to those who were fully
vaccinated during their positive COVID-19 test result. Partially vaccinated individuals are
excluded from the dataset. The extract was taken on March 20, 2022, and the data spans April 4,
This dataset was cleansed using Excel. Data on cases and deaths by individual vaccine
manufacturers were excluded, as only information on vaccination status and age was needed for
the visualizations. Additionally, in the raw dataset, the first column is called “outcome,” and the
content is either “case” or “death.” For simplicity, the dataset was divided into two separate
Before dividing the dataset into two tables, the dataset’s date format needed to be fixed.
The raw dataset has a column for the month (“Apr-21” for April 2021) but does not contain date
ranges for the weeks. Instead, it has a column entitled “MMWR week,” in which MMWR stands
for Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. MMWR week is the CDC’s official
epidemiological week ranging from 1 to 52. In the dataset, the MMWR week is formatted like
“202114,” representing the fourteenth week of 2021. Because of this, the corresponding date
ranges needed to be researched. Once these date ranges were identified, the first day of each
Provisional 2020-2022
The third dataset, “Conditions Contributing to COVID-19 Deaths, by State and Age,
Provisional 2020-2022,” is also from the CDC website (CDC, 2020). This dataset contains
comorbid COVID-19 death data by age group and by month, year, or total time. The age groups
included in the dataset are 0-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85 or older. For
individuals to be included in this dataset, COVID-19 and the comorbid health condition(s) must
be listed as causes of death, not just mentioned on the death certificate. Additionally, some
individuals may have more than one comorbidity listed as a cause of death and thus may be
counted more than once. The extracted dataset was retrieved on April 1, 2022, and spans January
This dataset was also cleansed using Excel. The spreadsheet contained data by month,
year, and total. Only the information by total was of interest, so monthly and annual data were
excluded. One of the health conditions included in the dataset was COVID-19, but there was no
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explanation about what that meant (i.e., whether it referred to individuals without any
comorbidities). Some of the conditions were renamed for conciseness and clarity.
Results
The dashboard for this capstone project contains six visualizations. The first visualization
is an animated heat map displaying the number of weekly COVID-19 cases by county over time
from January 21, 2020, to March 5, 2022 (see Figure 1). The heat map shows that the pandemic
started in the U.S. in three counties before moving into metropolitan areas and ultimately
spreading into rural America. The heat map also shows the peak of COVID-19 infections in the
The second and third visualizations are line graphs showing U.S. COVID-19 cases and
deaths, respectively, from January 21, 2020, to March 5, 2022 (see Figures 2-3). While these are
two separate visualizations, a Tableau parameter was used so that the dashboard displays only
one of the visualizations at one time. The user can select which measure they want to see by
clicking cases or deaths from a drop-down menu. This simplifies and modernizes the dashboard.
Also, the line graphs are annotated with labels indicating various pandemic milestone events that
have influenced the number of U.S. cases and deaths. These events are related to vaccine rollout,
statewide lockdowns, the emergence of new variants, and the superseding of new variants as the
primary COVID-19 strain circulating in the United States. Overall, these graphs illustrate that the
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various pandemic events are associated with changes in the rate of COVID-19 cases and deaths.
For example, the arrival of new variants was associated with massive upticks in cases and deaths.
The fourth and fifth visualizations are stacked side-by-side bar graphs that show the
number of monthly COVID-19 cases and deaths, respectively, by age group and vaccination
status from April 2021 to January 2022 (see Figures 4-5). A stacked bar chart illustrates multiple
data points on top of each other to show how each component contributes to the total value. A
stacked side-by-side bar chart does this for two x-variable categories, and the stacked bar
segments for each x-variable are placed next to one another. The fourth visualization examines
monthly unvaccinated and vaccinated cases by age group from April 2021 to January 2022 (see
Figure 4). In this graph, the different age groups are stacked on top of each other, and
vaccination statuses are placed side-by-side. Likewise, the fifth visualization demonstrates
monthly deaths by vaccination status and age group (see Figure 5). Both visualizations can be
filtered by age group (by selecting from a multiple-choice menu) or month (by double-clicking
on the data). The dashboards are placed next to each other with an age filter in the center. The
age filter applies to both visualizations simultaneously, making the dashboard more streamlined
and sophisticated. These visualizations reveal more cases and deaths among unvaccinated people
than vaccinated people, and this difference is a lot more dramatic for mortality. The dashboard
shows, without implying causation, that mass vaccination is associated with a reduced COVID-
19 mortality rate.
The final visualization is a stacked bar chart demonstrating the number of comorbid
COVID-19 deaths from January 1, 2020, to March 26, 2022, by age group and comorbidity
category (see Figure 6). This visualization utilizes a different dataset from the previous two
graphs and the age group bins are different. Therefore, the age filter for this visualization could
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not be synced with the one for the previous two graphs. As a result, a new color scheme is used
for the age groups on this graph. A drop-down filter is also included for jurisdiction –
specifically, the United States and each state. In the graph, the comorbidities are sorted from
highest to lowest death toll, and deaths are stacked by age group. It is important to note that not
all of the comorbidity categories represent chronic preexisting conditions. For example, the first-
and third-highest death tolls are “influenza and pneumonia” and “respiratory failure.” These
health conditions are likely caused by COVID-19 and are not preexisting conditions. Conversely,
preexisting conditions such as diabetes and hypertension are the most strongly associated with
mortality.
The completed dashboard was published to Tableau Public to be accessed and shared on
the internet. Unfortunately, the animated heat map plays much more slowly on the internet than
on the Tableau Desktop application, and the font sizes are a bit smaller and harder to read. It can
also be difficult to trigger the animation and may take a few tries before it starts working.
Otherwise, the web version looks and functions the same as the desktop version.
Discussion
necessary than ever. It is also more available than ever. It is truly remarkable that all of this
information is so easily accessible online. Anyone with Tableau experience can analyze COVID-
19 data, create a dashboard, and share the finished product with others using a simple internet
URL.
In the future, a couple of improvements could be made to the dashboard. First, a live data
connection would benefit the dashboard by keeping it updated. The dashboard currently utilizes
three dataset extracts, which cannot be updated automatically. The dashboard can only be
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updated manually, which is time-consuming and impractical. Additionally, if the dashboard were
to be published in a primarily web-based format, the speed of the heat map animation would
need to be quickened because Tableau Public’s default animation settings are too slow. A
There are a few key takeaways from this project. First, the overall dashboard shows that
while vaccination is not perfect, it is associated with significantly fewer deaths. Along with this,
the dashboard demonstrates that age is significantly associated with mortality. However, young
unvaccinated people, especially those with chronic health conditions like diabetes and
hypertension, are also at risk. More research is needed into the biological basis for these risk
factors. Future studies could also examine why some vaccinated people are still dying from
COVID-19 and if this is primarily due to immunodeficiency. Further investigation should also
explore the potential reasons for vaccine hesitancy and how to improve overall vaccination rates.
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Appendix A
Figure 1
Note. This image is a single snapshot from an animation. The data from the full animation spans
January 21, 2020, to March 5, 2022. The above figure depicts COVID-19 cases during the week
Figure 2
Note. The visualization depicts COVID-19 cases from January 21, 2020, to March 5, 2022.
Various pandemic milestone events are labeled on the graph to show how each event may have
Figure 3
Note. The visualization depicts COVID-19 deaths from January 21, 2020, to March 5, 2022.
Various pandemic milestone events are labeled on the graph to show how each event may have
Figure 4
Note. This stacked side-by-side chart depicts U.S. COVID-19 cases by vaccination status and age
group (5-11, 12-17, 18-29, 30-49, 50-64, 65-79, 80+) from April 2021 to January 2022. For this
dataset, data collection for the 5-11 age group began in December 2021, about a month after this
age group became eligible for the vaccine on October 29, 2021.
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Figure 5
Note. This stacked side-by-side chart depicts U.S. COVID-19 deaths by vaccination status and
age group (5-11, 12-17, 18-29, 30-49, 50-64, 65-79, 80+) from April 2021 to January 2022. For
this dataset, data collection for the 5-11 age group began in December 2021, about a month after
this age group became eligible for the vaccine on October 29, 2021.
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Figure 6
Note. This stacked graph shows the number of comorbid COVID-19 deaths by health condition
and age group. To be included in this visualization, COVID-19 and the comorbid condition
needed to be listed as causes of death, not just mentioned on the death certificate. Deaths may be
attributed to more than one comorbidity category, and therefore, deaths may be counted more
than once. The data spans from January 1, 2020, to March 26, 2022.
28
Appendix B
The animated heat map was created using the New York Times dataset (see Figure 1).
First, Longitude was dragged to Columns and Latitude was dragged to Rows. After this, bins
were designed for new weekly COVID-19 cases. A calculated field was created entitled “Sum of
Next, this calculated field was dragged to the Tableau Color icon as AGG(Sum of Cases
(Bins)), using the data aggregation function. Then, the State and County measures were dragged
to Marks to filter the data by U.S. county and state. Afterward, another calculated field was
established called “Week with Date Ranges” so that Tableau could be programmed to give the
date range for each week in the pandemic. The code for “Week with Date Ranges” is as follows:
To filter the heat map by date, the calculated field “Week with Date Ranges” was
dragged to Filters and then displayed the filter using the “single value (slider)” format. At this
29
point, the heat map was functional and filtered by week but not animated. To animate the heat
map, “Week with Date Ranges” was dragged to Pages. Finally, Tableau’s ToolTip window was
configured to display the county and state names, weekly cases, and weekly deaths.
The New York Times dataset was used to create the subsequent two visualizations, which
would depict COVID-19 cases and deaths, respectively (see Figures 2-3). While these are two
separate visualizations, a parameter was used so that the dashboard displays only one of the
visualizations at one time. The user can select which measure they want to see by clicking cases
or deaths from a drop-down menu. Also, the line graphs are annotated with labels indicating
various milestone events that have influenced the number of cases and deaths nationwide.
Examples of pandemic milestone events are lockdown orders, vaccine rollout events, and the
emergence of new variants. Additionally, the ToolTip is configured to display the “week of” date
and number of weekly cases for each week when the user hovers over the data.
The following two visualizations included in the dashboard are both stacked side-by-side
graphs. These graphs are stacked by age, and bar segments for each vaccination status are placed
side-by-side. Both visualizations can be filtered by age group (by selecting from a multiple-
choice menu) or month (by double-clicking on the data). The age filter applies to both
visualizations simultaneously, making the dashboard more streamlined and sophisticated. Lastly,
the ToolTip shows the month, age group, and number of vaccinated or unvaccinated cases or
condition from January 1, 2020, to March 26, 2020 (see Figure 6). The comorbidity categories
are sorted from the highest to the lowest number of deaths. Like the previous two graphs, deaths
are stacked by age group. However, this visualization utilizes a different dataset from the
previous two graphs and the age group bins are different. Therefore, the age filter for this
visualization could not be synced with the age filter for the previous two graphs. As a result, a
new color scheme is utilized for the age groups on this graph. A drop-down filter is also included
for jurisdiction – specifically, the United States and each state. Finally, the ToolTip displays the
age group, health condition, and number of associated deaths when the user hovers over the data.
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Appendix C
Program Competencies
healthcare topic, COVID-19. The project delves into population health and reveals how
public health tools like vaccination influence COVID-19 infections and mortality.
This competency was demonstrated during the capstone poster presentation to fellow
The dashboard was designed and iteratively improved using human factors techniques,
This was the main competency highlighted in the capstone project. The datasets were
cleansed, transformed, and analyzed using Excel, Python, and Tableau. The dashboard
This project relates to the Quality and Regulatory Competency because COVID-19
infections, deaths, and vaccinations are tracked by public health agencies so that data can
The COVID-19 dashboard helps the user visualize how age, geographic location, and