SOLUTIONS TO 120MSE MAY 2014

1 (a) Sketch boxplot. On average real marks 12 higher than mock.

Mock marks are much more variable than real. Investigate outliers. 6
Distribution of real roughly symmetrical; mock are slightly negatively skewed.

(b) Should not explode all sectors. % do not sum to 100. Column chart better for discrete
numerical variable. 3D effect misleading. Changing natural order of data values confusing. 6
Colours not easily distinguishable. Unclear what percent of. Title uninformative. No units.

2 (a) H0: Proportion of A*s independent of class H1: not H0 1

Obs Exp (O-E)2/E E’s M1
4 8.9 2.72 A1
24 19.1 1.28
9 9.3 0.01 Chisq M1
20 19.8 0.00 A1
=9.30
15 9.3 3.57
Df=3 M1
14 19.8 1.67
9 9.6 0.03 5% critical value=7.815 A1
21 20.4 0.02 Reject H0. 1
Proportion of A*s differs significantly been classes. 1

(b) Looking inside table, P≈0.025. M1 A1

Probability of getting such a large value of the test statistic by chance if H0 is true. 1

3
(a) Abs Obs Prob Exp (O-E)2/E P(0) M1 A1
0 10 0.2231 6.2 2.25 P(1) A1
1 7 0.3347 9.4 0.60
P(3) A1
2 8 0.2510 7.0 0.13
3+ 3 0.1912 5.4 1.03 E’s 1
(b) (H0: Poisson distribution with mean 1.5 H1: not H0)
Chisq=4.01 M1 A1
Df=3 5% critical value=7.815 M1 A1
Cannot reject H0. A1

(c) Assumes independent events. Dubious as students could catch an illness from each other. 1 1

4 (a) P(B<78)=P[Z<(78-61)/12] M1
= P(Z<1.42) = 0.9222 A1 A1

(b) P(A<78)=P[Z<(78-86)/4] = P(Z<-2.00) M1

= 0.0228 A1

(c) E(B-A)=-25 SD(B-A)=√(42+122)=√160=12.65 1 1

P(B>A) = P(B-A>0) M1
= P(Z>(0—25)/12.65) = P(Z>1.98) = 0.0239 A1 A1

(d) E(Bav-Aav)=-25 1
SD(Bav-Aav)=√(42/2+122/2)=√80=8.95 M1 A1
P(Bav>Aav) = P(Bav-Aav>0) m1
= P(Z>(0—25)/8.95) = P(Z>2.79) = 0.0026 A1 A1
5 (a) N=7 p=0.68
(i) P(6) = 7C6 0.686 0.321 M1 A1
= 0.2215 A1

(ii) P(7)=0.85717 = 0.0672 1

so P(6 or 7) = 0.2214+0.0.0672 = 0.2887 M1 A1

(b) H0: p=2/3 H1:p<>2/3 1

f=0.68 SE=√((2/3)*(1/3))/116)=0.0438 M1
Z=(0.68-0.6666)/0.0438 = 0.31 A1
5% critical value = 1.960 1
Insufficient evidence to reject H0. School’s claim is justified. 1

(c) SE = =√((0.68*0.32)/116)= 0.0433 1

Z=1.96 1
0.68 +/- 1.96 x 0.0433 0.68 +/- 0.0849 M1 A1
60% to 76% A1

6 (a) A student scoring 0 in the mock is expected to achieve 47 in the real exam on average 1 1

(b) Df=19-2=17 t=2.11 1

SE=10.28 1
95% CI is 46.54 +/- 2.11 x 10.28 46.54 +/- 21.69 24.85 to 68.23 M1 A1

(c) 53% of variability in real exam marks are explained by differences between mock marks 1 1

(d) Used to check whether a linear model is appropriate. 1

Here there is a random scatter which suggests there is no need for non-linear model. 1 1

(e) 76.645 = 46.54 + 0.5377x solve for x=56 M1 A1

PI for individual prediction so 66.6 to 86.7 (from Minitab output) 1

(f) Low R-sq so model not a good fit to data. 1

Extrapolation as 56 well below lowest mock. 1
(Or other valid reasons.)

7 (a) H0: 1 = 2 H1: 1 ≠ 2 F = 12.62/5.262 = 5.74 F(5%, 12, 14)≈3.72 (using 10,10) 1 1 1
Since 3.72 < 5.74 sufficient evidence to reject H0. Variances may not be assumed equal. 1

(b) Must be using Satterthwaite’s method for unequal variances, hence not n1+n2-2 1

(c) T= (71.8-85.47) = -13.67 num

√(12.62/13+5.262/15) 3.749 M1 A1
den
M1 A1
(d) H0: 1 = 2 H1: 1 ≠ 2 1
P<0.01 so strong evidence to reject H0 1
Significant difference in mean mock marks for those who chose Add Maths. 1

(e) Df =15 so t(5%) = 2.131 estimate= 13.67 SE=3.749 1 1 1

13.67 +/- 2.131 x 3.749 13.67 +/- 7.99 5.68 to 21.66 1