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Sushil Sharma
Research Analyst
SushilK.Sharma@edelweissfin.com Date: September 22, 2021
Tech Mahindra Ltd Telecom turnaround to accelerate growth
Tech Mahindra (TECHM), part of the Mahindra group, is one of India’s top-5 IT services Sushil Sharma
companies. Digitalization driven strong demand should sustain Enterprise segment’s Research Analyst
(ES) strong growth. While Communications segment (CS) was a laggard, 5G deals SushilK.Sharma@edelweissfin.com
momentum is picking up. This should enable quicker growth recovery in CS.
Hence, we expect TECHM to deliver 13% revenue CAGR over FY21-23E. Improved
execution engine for managing costs, targeting large deals, talent management, and
cash conversion should help margins and further reduce finance cost, resulting in 17%
PAT CAGR over the same period. CMP INR: 1,460
Further, TECHM’s R&D lab (Makers Lab) along with partners has applied for Covid-19 Rating: Tactical BUY
drug patent, which will undergo trials and development process over the next ~1.5 Target Price: INR 1670
years. If successful, earnings upside may flow in from FY24E.
The stock is trading at 22.1x FY23E EPS. Recommend ‘Tactical Buy’ with a target price Upside: 14%
of INR1,670.
Strategy has stabilised and paying off; focus on operations and organisation
TECHM’s strategy is built around services/offerings. This enables platform-driven
cloudification for digital transformation, which is now paying off. The company’s deal- win Bloomberg: TECHM:IN
value increased to USD2.2bn in FY21 (v/s USD3.7bn in FY20 and USD1.7bn in FY19) and
52-week
OPM expanded to 14.2% in FY21 (expected to further expand in FY22). To sustain growth 709 / 1493
range (INR):
recovery, the company is ramping up its execution engine by prioritising talent re-skilling,
large deals, project deliveries, targeted M&As and better collections. Share in issue (mn): 886
Table of Contents
Page No.
Financials ..................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Story in a Nutshell
Exhibit 1: Revenue and margin improving Exhibit 2: Enterprise segment’s main growth driver
8,000 20% 10%
7,000 6,546 8%
5,845
6,000 5,182 5,111 16% 6%
USD mn
4,771 4,971
5,000 4,351 4%
4,000 12% 2%
3,000 0%
TECHM Telecom Enterprise Infosys TCS
2,000 8% -2%
Segment segment
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E 5yr CAGR (FY16-21) 3yr CAGR (FY18-21) 2yr CAGR (FY19-21)
Revenues (LHS) OPM (RHS)
Exhibit 3: Communication segment’s share in deal wins Exhibit 4: …leading to pick-up in the segment’s revenue
higher than its share in revenues… growth, which is likely to sustain
60% 43%
15% 600
42%
50% 10% 560
41%
(USD mn)
5%
40% 40% 520
0%
39%
30% -5% 480
38%
20% 37% -10% 440
Dec-20
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-20
Mar-21
Deal wins share, LTM (LHS) Revenue share (RHS) QoQ (LHS) YoY (LHS)
Exhibit 5: Valuation multiples mostly track revenue growth, so P/E (x) may sustain
25 30%
25%
20 20%
15%
(X)
15 10%
5%
10 0%
-5%
5 -10%
Jul-17
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jul-16
Oct-16
Oct-17
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jul-21
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
TECHM is already seeing traction from its ‘NXT.Now’ strategy. It is aimed at enterprises to run their
IT systems better and change and grow their business faster by using TECHM’s tools/offerings kit
around four big bets – (a) cloudification, (b) platforms, (c) business efficiency, and (d) user
experience.
To fully exploit ‘NXT.Now’ strategy, TECHM is focused on sustainable execution that have the
following elements:
● Delivery and priority areas – right-sizing high potential geographies, embedding artificial
intelligence (AI) tools in delivery platforms, and right-sizing the employee pyramid,
● Account managers to be empowered client partners for digital sales capability and client
specific innovation,
● Focus on six key industry verticals along with seven key service lines that includes 5G, cloud
and analytics, cyber security, engineering services, business process services, and marketing
office functions.
Source: Company Data, Edelweiss Wealth Research *CME (Communications, Media & Entertainment)
6,000 5% 1,300
5,182 5,111
(USD mn)
8%
4,771 4,971 0% 1,250
5,000 4,351
4% -5% 1,200
4,000
0% -10% 1,150
3,000
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-20
Mar-21
2,000 -4%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
Revenues (LHS) Growth (RHS) QoQ (LHS) YoY (LHS) Revenues (RHS)
Exhibit 9: According to last 12 months (LTM) data for each quarter (to smoothen quarterly
volatility), deal wins growth is directly feeding into revenue growth. Since demand scenario is
robust, deal wins, and hence, growth recovery should sustain…
60% 4%
3%
40%
2%
20%
1%
0%
0%
-20%
-1%
-40% -2%
Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21
Exhibit 10: …deal wins balanced between Communication and Enterprise segments...
1600
1400
1200
1000
(USD mn)
800
600
400
200
0
Dec-19
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Communications Enterprise Total Value
While TECHM’s Enterprise segment’s performance was in line with peers, overall growth was being
dragged by the Communications segment. With Telecom original equipment makers (OEMs)
reporting more and more 5G deals with Telecom service providers (TSPs) and IT service providers
(like TECHM) to TSPs not witnessing sustained major deals, there is a disconnect. However, we this
disconnect would gradually disappear in the future.
8%
8.0%
6% 5.2%
3.6%
0.6%
4%
Exhibit 13: However, Communications is showing definite signs of a turnaround. We believe this
will gain further strength as Telecom service providers (if not enterprises) are adopting 5G at a
quicker pace...
15% 600
10%
560
(USD mn)
5%
520
0%
480
-5%
-10% 440
Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21
Exhibit 14: 5G deals have shot up over last two years… Exhibit 15: ...and balance is shifting in favour of 5G (v/s 4G)
USD Billions
100
3.0
80
65 2.4
60
1.8
40 40
30 1.0
20 18 0.6
0 0.2
Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21
Ericsson Nokia Huawei 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
4G 5G
Source: Company Data, Edelweiss Wealth Research. Omdia and 5G Americas, Sep 23, 3030
Over 2020-25, telecom network management services market is expected to move towards
network service 3.0, which is based on open architecture, is cloud native and AI driven. Therefore,
TECHM is positioning itself as a continuous integrator rather than a network system integrator.
Though 5G implementation has been delayed, Communication Service Providers (CSPs) are
spending on improving network management to cater to the higher data demand owing to
remote working/access. TECHM has developed products like netOps.ai (AI driven network
operation platform) and GAiA to reposition itself.
Exhibit 17: 5G spending in other parts of the ecosystem should reflect in TECHM’s
Communication segment deal wins in CY22 (which is already up after dip in CY20)…
1,200 2,500
1,000
2,000
800
(USD mn)
1,500
(USD mn)
600
1,000
400
500
200
- -
Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21
20% 840
15%
800
10%
760
(USD mn)
5%
720
0%
680
-5%
-10% 640
Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21
Operating margins are expected to expand to 15.8% in FY22 (v/s 14.2% in FY21), as TECHM
embarked on cost-focused operational efficiency initiatives in H2CY20. The company (a) deployed
~100 data analysts to comb through each line item for cost savings, (b) redesigned work processes
and structure for greater efficiency, and (c) integrated portfolio companies’ back-office and front-
office through shared services. These measures are now showing results, and therefore, past
volatility in margins is expected to subside.
Exhibit 19: Margins have improved; TECHM’s efforts towards achieving operational efficiency
should mitigate past margin volatility
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
OPM NPM
Exhibit 20: Declining DSOs show operational efficiency efforts leading to improvement in quality
of growth
106 107
99
93
87
77
73 75
67
62
Exhibit 21: Stronger growth, better margins and improved operational efficiency has resulted in
higher Free Cash Flows (FCF) and better cash conversion (FCF to PAT ratio) …
80,000 180%
162%
160%
60,000
140%
(INR MN)
40,000 120%
92% 100%
95% 87%
20,000
73% 80%
0 60%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Exhibit 22: …enabling the company to increase shareholder pay out (reached 90% in FY21) …
60 90% 100%
76% 90%
50 45 80%
40 35 70%
60%
(INR)
30 50%
33% 29% 40%
28%
20 30%
14 14
9 20%
10
10%
0 0%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Exhibit 23: …without compromising on acquisitions/investments. TECHM completed acquisitions worth USD227mn in YTD
CY21
Date Acquired assets Competency area Value (USD mn)
Jun’21 Brainscale, USA Cloud transformation related IT services 29
Apr’21 Eventus Solutions, USA Business Process Services 44
Apr’21 DigitalOnUs, USA Cloud native & hybrid cloud automation 120
Mar’21 Perigord Asset Holding, Ireland Packaging supply chain solutions 25
Jan’21 Payments Technology Solutions Will give access to 2 IP's/products for Payments 9
Oct’20 Momentum Pty, Australia Cloud & engineering services with BFSI focus 10
Oct’20 Tenzing Group, New Zealand IT services in Insurance in ANZ region 29
Oct’20 VitalTech, Texas, US IT services in Health care 3
Feb’20 Zen3 Infosolutions (America) Inc. AI, machine learnings and Cloud 64
Jan’20 Cerium Systems Private Limited. VLSI and design systems 35
Nov’19 Born Group Pte Ltd. Digital content and production 95
Aug’19 MAD Pow Media Solutions LLC Experience and strategic design services 17
Jul’19 Objectwise Consulting Group Inc PEGA software implementation 2
May’19 Altiostar Networks Inc Open vRAN 114
Apr’19 Vitaran Electronics RFID-based asset monitoring 18
Mar’19 K-Vision Co Ltd Japan-based mobile network solutions 2
Feb’19 Dynacommerce Holding BV Customer experience 5
Sep’18 Inter-Informatics spol sro ER&D in Aero, rail, and Machinery 12
Jun’18 Tradeix Ltd Open platform for trade finance 16
Sep’17 Emagine International Pty Ltd
Jul’17 Pininfarina SpA Italy-based automotive design 9
May’17 CJS Solutions Group LLC/The 90
Jun’16 Bio Agency Digital, customer experience design 66
May’16 Target Group Financial services outsourcing 164
Jan’16 Advanced technology solutions
Dec’15 Pininfarina SpA Auto/Industrial Design 94
Jan’15 SOFGEN Holdings Ltd Geneva based consulting services in BFSI space 30
Nov’14 Lightbridge Communications Corp Network management services 240
Apr’14 FixStream Networks Inc Analytics 10
Source: Company Data, Edelweiss Wealth Research
IV. Recommend ‘Tactical BUY’ with target price of INR1,670 (14% upside
potential)
At CMP of INR1,460, the stock is valued at 22.1x FY23E EPS. Aided by strong demand environment
and greater uptick in 5G deals, we expect TECHM’s growth recovery to strengthen and sustain,
leading to 13% revenue CAGR over FY21-23E. Operating leverage of growth along with an improved
execution engine (to manage costs, target large deals, talent management, and receivables) should
help margins and further reduce finance cost, resulting in 17% PAT CAGR over FY21-23E. Hence, we
recommend ‘Tactical BUY’ on the stock with a target price of INR1,670/share.
We have not factored in any real option value from some R&D activities like the Covid-19 drug
discovery (TECHM has filed patent along with Bengaluru-based Reagene Biosciences). Trials are
expected to start in 3-4 months and the whole development process may take up to ~1.5years.
25%
20 20%
15%
(X)
15 10%
5%
10 0%
-5%
5 -10%
Jul-17
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jul-16
Oct-16
Oct-17
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jul-21
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
1yr forward P/E (LHS) Revenue growth YoY (RHS)
Valuation Metrics
Year to March FY20A FY21 FY22E FY23E
Diluted P/E (x) 36.1 31.8 28.8 22.1
Price/BV (x) 6.5 5.7 4.9 4.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.7 19.0 16.1 14.7
Dividend yield (%) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Valuation Drivers
Year to March FY20A FY21 FY22E FY23E
EPS growth (%) -6.4 10.1 20.9 8.2
RoE (%) 19.2 19 20.2 19.1
EBITDA growth (%) -9.6 19.6 18.3 9.1
Payout ratio (%) 37.3 33.9 28.1 25.9
Vinay Khattar
VINAY Digitally signed by VINAY
KHATTAR
Head Research
vinay.khattar@edelweissfin.com KHATTAR Date: 2021.09.22
13:32:16 +05'30'
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