ST Thomas’ College of Engineering and Technology

Covid-19 outbreak prediction using machine learning algorithms

Prepared by

Swayam Acharyya 171220110121

Prerana Hazra 171220110101

Md Saifuddin 171220110091

Under the guidance of

Subhashree Basu

Assistant Professor,

Information Technology

Project Abstract
Submitted in the partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of B.Tech in
Information Technology

Department of Information Technology

Affiliated to

Maulana Abul Kalam Azad University of

Technology, West Bengal

June 2021
 ST Thomas’ College of Engineering and Technology

Abstract:
Since early 2020 people have been really interested in knowing more about the particular virus
that was discovered in Wuhan, China and have spent hours of their precious time learning more
about it. Since the epidemic outbreak in early months of 2020, the spread of COVID-19 has
gone out of control in most countries and regions across the World. Because of that, SARS-
CoV-2 was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on
January 30, 2020, by The World Health Organization (WHO). Scientists are working round the
clock on new methods to reduce further growth of new cases. Researches are also being done to
allocate patients intelligently, reduce the patient pressure on doctors, which in turn can lead to
more successful and effective treatments. However proper management of the COVID-19
spread need real-time prediction models which can reliably support various decisions both at
national and international level. The problem in developing such system is the lack of
knowledge of how the virus spreads and what would be the number of cases each day.
Therefore, prediction models must be able to conclude the situation from past data in a way
such that the results will show a future trend and will possibly be close to the real numbers.

In this project we are working on predicting the future cases. Our aim is to accurately predict
the future of the Covid-19 situation in our country with the help of supervised machine learning
algorithms. We are using many different algorithms, a few of them being Polynomial
Regression, Support Vector Machine and The Random Forest algorithm. These models are
used to predict the future of the pandemic in our country and in order to do so we have taken
the Covid-19 dataset for India. The models are trying to predict the accurate number of
confirmed cases, recovered cases and deceased cases. Corresponding graphs are also plotted
which will depict the calculated results for all three of those cases obtained from the machine
learning models in question. These predictions are presented in a website where the user can
easily view these results by simply entering the date and place at which they want the
prediction to happen. Another important feature of our work is that the dataset stored in our
systems will automatically be updated as and when the actual data will be updated by the
government of India. So, our algorithms are being able to predict the results from both the 1st
wave and 2nd wave and can be used in the upcoming days also. The results obtained are
comparable to the actual data and so we can conclude that our work proves the correctness of
the proposed methods.

June 2021