2010-2011 REPORT

GET CLUES TO THE ECONOMY

Pierce County Economic Index

PCEI Forecasters
Bruce D. Mann, Ph.D. Professor of Economics University of Puget Sound Douglas E. Goodman, Ph.D. Professor of Economics University of Puget Sound

Bruce D. Mann, Ph.D., has been a professor of economics at the University of Puget Sound since 1975. Dr. Mann came to the Tacoma area from Indiana University where he received both his masters and doctorate degrees in economics. He completed his undergraduate work at Antioch College in Yellow Springs, Ohio. One of Dr. Manns particular areas of teaching interest and research deals with the operations of local economies. He has published research related to the impacts of local government subsidies to businesses, financing for housing and rent control issues. Dr. Mann has been active in local community affairs as a consultant for the City of Tacoma, Pierce County government and numerous civic groups and associations. He has been a member of the Puget Sound Regional Council advisory group on long range forecasting and a board member of the Upper Tacoma Renaissance Association.

Douglas E. Goodman, Ph.D., has been a professor of economics at the University of Puget Sound since 1977. He came from the University of Illinois where he received his masters and doctorate degrees. Dr. Goodmans teaching responsibilites focus on monetary economics and econometrics. His research interests are in the areas of financial markets and institutions, personal finance, macroeconomics and applied econometrics and forecasting. In addition to these activities, Dr. Goodman has been active in consulting for both public and private groups. In 2007 he was awarded a Burlington Northern Curriculum Development Grant to devise a new course called Economic Data and Analysis. This applied course is designed to promote understanding of economic statistics.

Credits
Publisher: Mike Hansch Project Manager/Editor: Gary Brackett Graphic Designer: Christina Kitchens Photography: Chip Van Gilder, Philip Palermo, Port of Tacoma and Chamber Staff 2010 Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber. All rights reserved.

Pierce County Economic Index

Methodology
The Pierce County Economic Index (PCEI) is unique to Pierce County and an exceptional business tool rarely duplicated in other communities. The forecast is constructed from more than 25 local, regional and national data sets. The model developed for the Pierce County Economic Index is reconfigured and recalibrated each year to take advantage of new information, data and conditions. In addition to the statistical method, the forecast includes judgmental factors. These factors include extensive analysis of the years local economic events, a review of the prior forecasts and consideration of national and international activity. The combination of the statistical and the judgmental approaches allows each years forecast to capture past performances as well as a forward-looking method to present an understanding of current conditions and likely short-term future outcomes. The PCEI itself is used to forecast the overall economic condition for the county. The statistical

model is also used to forecast activity in the retail and labor sectors of the economy, as well as local income. This procedure has proved to be very reliable and has generated forecasts that have been statistically accurate. The data sets were chosen for their tested relevance, timely availability and consistency of reporting. Authors of the PCEI, Drs. Bruce Mann and Douglas Goodman, professors of economics at the University of Puget Sound (UPS), present the forecast in a general conference session. In addition to the PCEI, Drs. Mann and Goodman also estimate a local Housing Index. This Index measures the amount of sales activity for single-family homes (detached and condominium) in Pierce County. Data on sales and listings are the primary data sources, but the model itself is based on the particular historical structure of the single-family sales activity in the local area. Because of the lag in publication of resource economic data, each PCEI Report forecasts for a period covering the last two quarters of the current year (2010) and the full calendar year ahead (2011).

Table of Contents
Executive Summary 4-7 Pierce County Economic Index 8-19 Retail Sales Activity 10-11 Labor Activity & Unemployment 11-12 Personal Income 12-13 Housing and Real Estate 14-15 Port of Tacoma 16-17 Data Tables 18-19 Special Thanks 20-21
Pierce County Economic Index 3

Executive Summary
The Pierce County economy is emerging from what has been the longest and deepest recession on record deserving the sobriquet Great Recession. The current PCEI Report forecast outlook is for a slow and steady growth through 2011. The local recession lasted for seven quarters from year-end in 2008 through the summer of 2010. Over this seven quarters the PCEI dropped by 5.35%, the steepest and deepest decline in activity since the inception of the Pierce County Economic Index. For the year, in 2011 the PCEI will increase by three and one-quarter percent, a solid beginning to the recovery. Historically, most Pierce County downturns started from weak local and regional conditions, not from national and international events. However, this recession was different. Initially, Pierce Countys strong local economy was able to delay the impacts of these national forces. Pierce Countys economic strength came from the growing medical services industries, activity at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, and a well-balanced business services sector. In addition, commercial real estate activity and industrial facility construction remained strong in the local area. Just as national and international forces pulled the Pierce County economy into recession, they will slowly pull the local economy out of it. The Pierce County economy will start to realize the benefits of the national recovery during the fourth quarter of 2010. As the year 2010 ends, the PCEI will move up by 2.9% 4 Pierce County Economic Index -- the strongest annualized quarterly growth since late in 2006. This late-in-the-year upturn will not offset the economic weakness during the first half of the year. For 2010 the annual PCEI will be down by 1.35% in 2010 bettering the 3.9% decline of 2009. A fairly strong recovery will continue into the first half of 2011. The PCEI will move up at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the first quarter of 2011 and increase by 3.6% in the second quarter. Much of the stimulus will come from the return of troops and some 25% of their families. The recovery will slow during the second half of 2011. For the year, the PCEI will move up by 3.25% in 2011 a good, but not great, recovery year. Job losses are a consequence of a recession. From the start of the local recession in 2008 until the trough of this recession, just over 21,000 Pierce County residents lost jobs. Employment levels in Pierce County continued falling during the first half of 2010. The number of nonagricultural jobs in Pierce County will begin to increase during the fourth quarter of 2010. The small positive move at year end will not offset the job losses from the first three quarters, so during the year 2010, employment will net decline by 1.4%, the second worst annual performance on record. In 2011 employment opportunities in Pierce County will increase by 1.5%, adding about 4,000 jobs over the 2010 level. However, employment in Pierce County will still be 12,000 jobs below the pre-recession peak in 2007.

Unlike a typical recession when the labor force declines, the civilian labor force in Pierce County increased, although at a moderate rate, throughout this downturn. For 2011 as a whole, the countys civilian labor force will be up by 3.2%, which means 12,500 more Pierce County residents searching for jobs. The expansion in the labor force will combine with weak job growth and seasonal lay-offs (following the end of the holiday season hiring) to push the countys unemployment rate up. For the whole 2011 year, the Pierce County unemployment rate will average 8.9%, a bit better than the 2010 rate. Retail sales turned upward in the first quarter of 2010, about six months before the end of the recession. Holiday sales in 2010 will move up by 2% over the holiday spending level of 2009. This increase in holiday shopping will add about $30 million more dollars to local cash registers over last years holiday spending. Total retail spending in Pierce County will increase by about $80 million for the 2010 year. Retail spending in 2011 will continue growing, but the increases will be very modest. The holiday shopping season will be better in 2011 than in 2010 with spending up 1%. In 2011 the dollar volume of retail spending in Pierce County will move up by almost 1.1%, putting $55 million more dollars in local cash registers than in 2010. The increases in dollar spending in 2011 will just about match the inflation rate. Total personal income for Pierce County residents will increase in 2010. During the year total county household income will move up 2.25% adding back

$683 million dollars to household budgets. Total personal income growth will accelerate in 2011, moving up by 4.1% during the year. This will add almost $1.3 billion to the countys households accounts. Most of this increased income will come from labor earnings as jobs and employment increase in the county. The economic recovery and rising total personal income will produce per capita income gains for Pierce County residents in 2010 and 2011. In 2010 the per capita income will move up by 1.1%; population growth will take away half of the growth in total income. Then, per capita income will increase by 2.5% during 2011. However, the $415 gain in 2010 plus the $973 added in 2011 will not completely offset the loss suffered during the recession. Per capita income in Pierce in 2011 will be $39,507. This modest rebound in real per capita income will be equivalent to the purchasing power of an average income in 2006. When 2011 comes to a close the single-family Housing Index (a measure of the volume of activity, not price or value) will have fallen by 31% from its 2006 peak. The Housing Index for 2011 will be at the same level it was in 2000. Troop deployments from the areas military bases contributed a significant negative impact to the apartment market, as did the general economic slowdown. As troops returned to the county and deployment rates leveled off, the apartment market began to improve in the first quarter of 2010. Pierce County Economic Index 5

Executive Summary
During the second half of 2010 the apartment market in Pierce County will continue to improve. The roughly 18,000 troops returning to Joint Base LewisMcChord will stimulate demand for housing. The outlook for commercial and industrial real estate in 2011 is cautiously optimistic. Retail real estate will continue to struggle throughout 2011. Office real estate will face the most serious challenge in 2011. After losing a combined $15 billion in 2009, the worlds top container lines have returned to profitability in 2010. Throughout 2010 the Port of Tacomas container business continued to feel the effects of decisions made by ocean carriers in 2009. After dropping 17.0% in 2009, containers declined an additional 7.1% in 2010. Serving Alaska and Hawaii, and accounting for about 34% of total container volume in 2010, the Ports domestic container business is up approximately 2.8% for 2010. After a significant drop in volume in 2009, the Ports breakbulk business is down again in 2010. One bright spot, however, is the return of the Ports log business due to surging demand for logs in China. Auto imports for the 2010 year are projected at 112,000 units, down 4.5% from 2009. Looking forward, 2011 will see a return to modest growth for the Port of Tacomas container business. After three straight years of volume declines, container volume will increase by 4.4%, driven mainly by growth in international trade. 6 Pierce County Economic Index Breakbulk cargo will remain relatively flat; logs will jump a dramatic 26.3% as 2011 is compared against a partial year of volume in 2010, and autos will increase 8.1% as manufacturers increase their import volume through the Port. Two major concerns add more than the usual amount of uncertainty to this forecast. One concern is for the recovery of the housing sector. The second concern is the possibility that countries will engage in competitive devaluations.

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PCEI Ind ex (1985=100)

PCEI Index

175 170 165 160 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Forecast

Pierce County Economic Index

PIERCE COUNTY ECONOMIC INDEX

The Pierce County economy is emerging from what has been the longest and deepest recession on record. The local and national recessions are over. The recovery in Pierce County will be slow and still fraught with uncertainty. But, the current Pierce County Economic Index (PCEI) forecast outlook is for a slow and steady growth through 2011. Pierce Countys recession, as reported last year, started in the fourth quarter of 2008 when the PCEI (a measure of overall economic well-being in Pierce County) fell by one-third of one percent. The recession continued through 2009 and into the summer of 2010. In 2009 the PCEI declined by 3.9%. The index will fall by another 1.35% during 2010. The local recession lasted for seven quarters from year-end in 2008 through the summer of 2010. Over this seven quarters the PCEI dropped by 5.35%, the steepest and deepest decline in activity since the inception of the Pierce County Economic Index. The economic recovery started in the third quarter of 2010 when the PCEI registered a small, but positive, annualized gain of 0.3%. The economic recovery will build strength as 2010 comes to a close. The PCEI will rise by 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2010. More moderate growth will characterize the Pierce County economy during 2011. The PCEI will move up by 3.9% during the first quarter of 2011. The local economy will grow at an annualized rate of 3.6% in the second quarter, and then move up by 3.1% during the third quarter, ending 2011 up by 2.35% in the fourth quarter. For the year, in 2011 the PCEI will increase by three and one-quarter percent, a solid beginning to the recovery. From its pre-recession peak in the third quarter of 2008 when the PCEI reached 201.4 to the recessions bottom in the first quarter of 2010 (the index dropped to 187.2), the PCEI fell by just over seven percent, a loss of just over two years of economic activity. The slow pace of the recovery will require more than three years to return to pre-recession levels. At the current rate of recovery, it will take about thirteen quarters for the PCEI to return to its pre-recession level of economic activity. This will be the longest and slowest recovery on record. Historically, most Pierce County downturns started from weak local and regional conditions, not from national and international events. However, this recession was different. The collapsing global financial markets, falling housing values, evaporating household wealth, and slowing world trade flows, pushed the U.S. economy into a recession in late 2007 about six months before the Pierce County recession started. Initially, Pierce Countys strong local economy was able to delay the impacts of these national forces. Pierce Countys economic strength came from the growing medical services industries, activity at Joint Base Lewis- McChord, and a well-balanced business services sector. In addition, commercial real estate activity and industrial facility construction remained strong in the local area. Six months after the U.S. economy turned down the impacts were felt in the Pierce County economy. Some local financial institutions were forced to close or merge. The aerospace market softened and other regional manufacturing activity declined. State and local governments reduced spending. Household wealth declined, unemployment started to increase, and consumer pessimism increased. Trade through the Port of Tacoma turned down as the economies of our trading partners stagnated. Even the economic uplift from troop movements through local facilities moderated. The fuel for most of Pierce Countys economic engines ran low, and the local economy stalled and started its downward slide. Just as national and international forces pulled the Pierce County economy into recession, they will slowly pull the local economy out of it. The U.S. economy started its recovery during the second quarter of 2009. Moderate national growth will continue through this forecast horizon. Continuing problems in financial and

Pierce County Economic Index

housing markets combined with reduced international trade and exchange rates problems will keep the rate of national recovery in check. Stimulus from national fiscal policy will weaken due to concerns over deficits and the national debt. While monetary policy will be accommodative, near zero interest rates will keep the Feds options limited. And, economic weakness in Europe and parts of Asia will prevent trade flows through the port from increasing at any significant pace. Locally, the return from deployment of 18,000 new military personnel at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, with many family members, will provide some new stimulus. The Pierce County economy will start to realize the benefits of the national recovery during the fourth quarter of 2010. As the year ends the PCEI will move up by 2.9% -- the strongest annualized quarterly growth since late in 2006 and a bit better than anticipated last year. This late-in-theyear upturn will not offset the economic weakness during the first half of the year, when the PCEI dropped by 5.5% in the first quarter and then fell by 2.9% in the second quarter. For 2010 the annual PCEI will be down by 1.35% in 2010 bettering the 3.9% decline of 2009. A fairly strong recovery will continue into the first half of 2011. The PCEI will move up at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the first quarter and increase by 3.6% in the second quarter. Much of the stimulus will come from the return of troops and some 25% of their families. In addition, housing finance will be improving as credit conditions in the mortgage markets improve. Consumer optimism will strengthen as job prospects improve, incomes increase and portfolios are rebuilt resulting in some gains in retail activity. The recovery will slow during the second half of 2011. The PCEI will move up at a 3.1% annualized rate during the third quarter and then by 2.35% in the fourth. Some Russell Investments employees will relocate, the office real estate market will not be able to absorb the amount of vacant space quickly, and construction spending will soften. The bulk of the new military returnees will have settled in and established households, reducing the increases in retail spending. Low interest rates and earnings will keep nonwage income growth in check. Savings rates will continue high as people spend less and rebuild their portfolios. Businesses will remain cautious and keep expansion plans on the shelf. Government spending will not increase. Trade activity will remain depressed, curbing activity in the warehousing and distribution industries. Finally, the

construction sector will not see much new activity as both new housing and commercial building demand will be weak. For the year, the PCEI will move up by 3.25% in 2011 a good, but not great, recovery year. This recovery, both nationally and locally, will be slower than normal. Consumers will be reluctant to increase spending. People will continue to worry about employment prospects given what will be still a high unemployment rate. Wage and income growth will be sluggish as labor market conditions will be still soft. Until job gains and income growth turn consumer sentiment positive, the consumer sector and retail spending will remain sluggish. Consumers will also be rebuilding their wealth and portfolio positions. From 2007 through 2009 real wealth (inflation adjusted) declined by 30%. Certainly much of the loss can be attributed to falling housing and real estate values. But it was also due to the decline in stock and bond prices. Rebuilding wealth will mean higher savings rates and this implies consumers will spend less. Two major concerns add more than the usual amount of uncertainty to this forecast. One concern is for the recovery of the housing sector. The housing rebound could falter due to the historically high number of households holding mortgages that are under water. If a significant number of these homeowners decide to abandon their properties or move into foreclosure this will depress housing markets again. In the past this has not occurred, homeowners did whatever they could to keep the American Dream. However, this time could be different. If so, wealth losses, neighborhood decay, and urban distress could change optimism to pessimism. Should this happen, a national double dip recession becomes possible and with it another local downturn. The second concern is the possibility that countries will engage in competitive devaluations. One way for a country to protect its export position is to let its currencys value decline in foreign exchange markets making its exports cheaper. The fear is that if one country pursues a devaluation policy to promote its exports, others will respond in like manner. If so, no countrys currency value really falls, but the prices of internationally-traded goods decline creating a deflationary effect throughout the world. This would have a depressing effect on businesses and reduce trade flows. Should this happen, the ramifications for Pierce County are not good, given the importance of trade to the Pierce County and regional economies.

Pierce County Economic Index

Retail Sales Activity

Even before the onset of the recession in the third quarter of 2008, retail activity in Pierce County was declining. The drop in sales activity started in the first quarter of 2008, before the recession did, and continued its downward path through 2009. Retail sales turned upward in the first quarter of 2010, about six months before the end of the recession. On a year-over-year basis dollar retail sales fell in 2009 by 7.8%, about in line with last years forecast. The 2009 holiday shopping season was weaker than anticipated, though, with sales off by 1.1% rather than the small upturn that was anticipated. The weak housing market, wealth losses, and a pessimistic consumer outlook kept shoppers cautious and frugal when it came to buying gifts and spending. For the year as a whole, retailers took in $432 million fewer dollars in 2009 than they did in 2008 and 2008 was already a slow year for retail sales. The volume of merchandise (real retail sales, measured by dollar spending adjusted for price changes) leaving Pierce County stores in 2009 declined, but not as precipitously as dollar volume did. Real sales dropped by about 2.8% in the first half of the year, and then by 1% during the second half. This was better than anticipated last year, primarily because prices declined during the year mitigating the dollar volume drop. Spending in Pierce County retail outlets started to improve in 2010. On an annualized basis dollar sales rose by 1.3% in the first quarter, and then moved up by 1.8% in the second quarter. Sales growth slowed a bit in the third quarter with a gain of 1.1%. Holiday sales in 2010 will be better than they were in 2009. Fourth quarter spending in Pierce County will move up by 2% over the holiday spending level of 2009. 10 Pierce County Economic Index This increase in holiday shopping will add about $30 million more dollars to local cash registers over last years holiday spending. Total retail spending in Pierce County will be up in 2010 compared to 2009, reversing the downward moves in 2008 and 2009. Sales in 2010 will increase by about $80 million for the year, a gain of almost 1.6% over 2009. The rate of sales growth is moderate in comparison with activity in the pre-recession period. Consumers will remain cautious and careful about purchases as the recovery begins. Thus, even with a gain in total annual retail spending, the annual level of sales in 2010 will be almost $850 million below total retail sales for 2007. Since dollar retail spending in each of the first three quarters of 2010 was in line with the rate of inflation, real retail activity held fairly constant. The dollar sales increase in the fourth quarter will exceed the rate of price increases, so real retail activity will move up by a modest three-tenths of one percent. This will be the first increase in the amount of merchandise moving out of area stores since late in 2007. Retail spending in 2011 will continue growing, but the increases will be very modest. The improving economy, pent-up demand by consumers, and higher incomes will help consumer spending. But weak consumer optimism, concerns over wealth positions, and recollections of the immediate past will keep people cautious and looking for bargains when they shop. First quarter sales will barely increase over the level of 2010, up just four-tenths of one percent. Sales gains will accelerate in the second and third quarters of the year, up at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the second quarter and then by 1.3% in the third quarter.

The holiday shopping season will be better in 2011 than in 2010 with spending up 1%. In 2011 the dollar volume of retail spending in Pierce County will move up by almost 1.1%, putting $55 million more dollars in local cash registers than in 2010. Holiday sales during the fourth quarter of the year will be up by $14 million over year earlier levels. Even with this increased spending, sales for 2011 still will be about $825 million below the 2007 peak amount.

The increases in dollar spending in 2011will just about match the inflation rate. So, real retail spending will be flat throughout the year. Real retail sales will move up during the third quarter back-to-school shopping season, but this will be offset by a decline in real sales during the holiday shopping in the fourth quarter.

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Forecast

Pierce County Economic Index

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Unemployment Labor Activity and Unemp y

Employment and Jobs
Job losses are a consequence of a recession. A deep and long recession means large job losses that last for a long period of time. Not surprisingly, this is what happened during the current downturn. While the Pierce County economy is starting to expand, it still will take some time for employment to fully recover. From the start of the local recession in 2008 until the upturn began in the first quarter of 2010, employment in Pierce County fell by 20,700, a 7.5% rate of job loss. From the peak to the trough of this recession, just over 21,000 Pierce County residents lost jobs. During the second half of 2008, as the current recession began, about 2,500 jobs were lost in Pierce County. An additional 11,500 jobs disappeared during 2009, with the biggest losses occurring during the first half of the year. The 4.2% reduction in nonagricultural employment in Pierce County during 2009 was the largest one year decline on record. The rate at which jobs evaporated in 2009 was a bit faster than the overall economic downturn (in 2009 the PCEI dropped by just under 4%). Employment levels in Pierce County continued falling during the first half of 2010. Since the economic downturn was steeper than anticipated last year, the job loss rate was also greater than expected. In the first quarter of the year, employment fell at a 3.4% annualized rate one and a half percent faster than expected last year. The rate of job loss slowed in the second quarter, as employment fell at a 1.9% rate, but still 1.5% above last years forecast. The rate continued easing in the third quarter with employment in Pierce County down one-half of one percent. Nonetheless, this was still worse than forecast last year when the forecast was for the beginning of some job growth. The depth and severity of this recession kept employers cautious and unwilling to expand employment. The number of nonagricultural jobs in Pierce County will begin to increase during the fourth quarter of 2010. Employment will move up at an annualized rate of four-tenths of one percent, a slow start and below the growth anticipated last year. The small positive move at year end will not offset the job losses from the first three quarters, so during 2010 employment will net decline by 1.4%, the second worst annual performance on record. As the Pierce County recovery builds momentum during 2011 job growth will occur. But, the rate of employment increase will lag the growth of the overall economy. Some employers will increase hours for current workers before hiring new employees. Other employers, cautious about expanding payrolls, will first use less expensive part-time and contingent workers before increasing the permanent workforce. Employers will wait to make sure the expansion is firm before taking on the cost of new workers. In the first quarter of 2011 employment in Pierce County will move up at an annualized rate of 1.1%, adding about 3,000 new jobs. The rate of job growth will improve to 1.4% in the second quarter and move up again to 1.75% in the third. Job growth will slow a bit in the fourth quarter to an annualized rate of 1.7%. In 2011 employment opportunities in Pierce County will increase by 1.5%, adding about 4,000 jobs over the 2010 level. However, employment in Pierce County will be still 12,000 below the pre-recession peak in 2007.

Labor Force
Unlike a typical recession when the labor force declines, the civilian labor force in Pierce County increased, although at a moderate rate, throughout this downturn. No doubt the Pacific Northwest regions reputation for better than average employment prospects attracted

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Pierce County Economic Index

new workers to the area. Extended unemployment benefits allowed workers to remain in the labor force searching for jobs for a longer than normal time. In addition, educational programs curtailed enrollments due to budget cuts and space shortages, so a larger than typical fraction of the workforce had no viable alternative than to continue searching for work. And, some workers doubled-up housing or returned home to reduce living expenses, remain in the labor force, and search for work. The number of people looking for work in Pierce County increased by 2.5% in 2008. Growth continued into the first half of 2009 with the labor force increasing by 2%. The labor force started to decline in the third quarter. It continued moving down in the fourth quarter. For the year the Pierce County civilian labor force in 2009 increased by one-half of one percent. The two percent drop during the last quarter of 2009 continued into the first quarter of 2010. The supply of workers, though, started to increase by the spring of 2010. In the third quarter of the year Pierce Countys labor force was increasing at an annualized rate of 1.6% and then increased to 2.8% in the fourth quarter of the year. The labor force will grow by about one-half of one percent during 2009. For the two year period of 2009 and 2010 about 3,600 new workers entered the countys labor force. The local recovery, the attraction of the Pacific Northwest, the expiring unemployment benefits, and an increasing number of students completing educational programs will continue to add new entrants to the local labor force in 2011. During the first quarter of the year the civilian labor force in Pierce County will grow at an annualized rate of 2.4%. The growth rate will increase to 3.2% in the second quarter, then 3.3% in the third quarter, and end the year rising at an annualized rate of 3.6%. For the year as a whole the countys civilian labor force will be up by 3.2%, which means 12,500 more Pierce County residents searching for jobs.

first half of 2010 the unemployment rate continued moving up, although more slowly. In Pierce County the rate reached 10.8% in the first quarter and then moved to 9.4% during the second. The downward move continued in the third quarter as the local unemployment rate reached 9.1%. The rate will drop a little during the fourth quarter to 8.5%. For the year, the average unemployment rate for Pierce County will be 9.4%, a level not seen in the county since the mid-1980s. The expansion in the labor force will combine with weak job growth and seasonal lay-offs (following the end of the holiday season hiring) to push the countys unemployment rate up to 9.4% in the first quarter of 2011. Positive job creation and moderate labor force growth will allow the unemployment rate to fall during the rest of 2011. The Pierce County unemployment rate will drop to 8.9% in the second quarter, then decline to 8.7% for the third quarter, and end the year at 8.6% in the fourth quarter. For the whole year, the Pierce County unemployment rate will average 8.9%, a bit better than the 2010 rate. During the recession (2009 through 2011) the Pierce County average annual unemployment rate will be 9.2%. In the growth period preceding this downturn (2000 to 2008) the countys average annual unemployment rate was 6%. The recession, then, pushed up the areas average rate by 3.2%. Based on the average size of the labor force between 2009 and 2011, the recession created an additional 12,800 unemployed Pierce County residents each year.

Unemployment
When there are fewer jobs and more people looking for work, the unemployment rate increases. These forces took hold in late 2008 as the downturn began. During 2009 the Pierce County unemployment rate continued to show the adverse effects of a recession, as the local unemployment rate increased from 6% to 9%. This run-up was in line with last years forecast. In the

Pierce County Economic Index

13

Personal Income
Total Personal Income
Total personal income drops when an economy is in a recession. The rate of growth for personal income in Pierce County began to slow in 2008, moving up by 4.5% -- one-half the rate of the previous two years. In 2009, the total amount of income going to county households declined by 2.9%. This translated into a loss of $920 million during the year. This was the steepest one year decline in Pierce Countys total personal income on record. In fact, 2009 was the first time on record that total personal income declined on an annual basis. Total personal income for Pierce County residents will increase in 2010. During the year total county household income will move up by two and one-quarter percent, adding back $683 million dollars to household budgets. Total personal income growth will accelerate in 2011, moving up by 4.1% during the year. This will add almost $1.3 billion to the countys households accounts. Most of this increased income will come from labor earnings as jobs and employment increase in the county. Low interest rates, moderate returns on investments, and restricted payments by governments will keep non-labor income flat. While moderate, inflation does erode the purchasing power of personal income. When adjusted for the effect of price increases, real total personal income barely increased in 2008 up by just six-tenths of a percent. Real total personal income fell by 2.6% in 2009, with part of the dollar income loss mitigated by a lower price level. Much of the dollar gain in 2010 will be offset by inflation. The increase in real personal income will be just three-quarters of one percent. In 2011 the larger income growth, combined with low inflation, will mean a 3.1% increase in total real personal income.

Per Capita Personal Income

Per capita personal income growth started to slow in 2008, due both to the smaller gains in total personal income and the increasing number of people in the county. Per capita income in Pierce County rose by 2.7% in 2008 reaching a new high of $39,858. However, this increase did not keep pace with inflation. Real per capita income in 2008 fell by one percent. In 2009 Pierce County per capita income fell by $1,700 dollars, down 4.4% from the year before. This decline reflected a lower amount of total dollar personal income and an increase in population. Since inflation was very low, the loss in real per capita income was about the same, down by just over 4%. This will be the deepest drop in real per capita personal income on record. The economic recovery and rising total personal income will produce per capita income gains for Pierce County residents in 2010 and 2011. In 2010 the per capita income will move up by 1.1%, but population growth will take away half of the growth in total income. Then, per capita income will increase by 2.5% during

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2011. However, the $415 gain in 2010 plus the $973 added in 2011 will not completely offset the loss suffered during the recession. Per capita income in Pierce County in 2011 will be $39,507, still $350 less than the high benchmark 2008 income level. The dollar gain in per capita income in 2010 will not be enough to offset the effects of inflation. Real per capita income in Pierce County will fall by four-tenths of

one percent. However, real per capita income will move up in 2011 by 1.5%, reversing the three year downward slide. This modest rebound in real per capita income will push up the purchasing power of an average income back to the level it was at in 2006.

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Housing and Real Estate

Single-Family
No question, no doubt, and no surprise the residential real estate market has taken a beating during this recession. In particular the single-family, homeownership part of the market took the most severe beating. Everything that could go wrong did: home prices declined putting many homeowners under water on their mortgages, reduced incomes and employment cut deeply into the demand side of the market, the construction of new homes came to a near halt as sellers were flooded with foreclosed properties and unsold inventories, credit flows for mortgage financing came to a halt, and governmental help (principally the first-time home-buyers assistance) had only a little beneficial impact. The single-family housing activity in Pierce County started its decline as 2006 came to end and the PCEIs Housing Index (a measure of the volume of activity, not price or value) fell by almost 5% in the fourth quarter. The downturn worsened in 2007 as the Housing Index fell by almost 9%. It got worse in 2008 with the Housing Index off by another 18%. In at least relative terms 2009 showed signs of improvement as the decline in housing activity started to moderate. Through the first three quarters of the year the annualized rates of decline got smaller. In the fourth quarter, the Housing Index actually moved up by 4% -the first increase in almost three years. However, for the year as a whole the net Housing Index dropped by 5.5% in 2009. As forecast last year, the first half of 2010 showed signs of significant improvement. In the first quarter the Housing Index moved up by almost 12%. 16 Pierce County Economic Index A 9.4% gain was registered in the second quarter, near the 11% upturn anticipated last year. Mortgage financing concerns and increased rates of foreclosures during the second half of 2010 started to erode the upward momentum in the single-family residential market. In the third quarter the Housing Index was up by only 2%, not the 10% anticipated last year. Buyers found it difficult to qualify for mortgage financing even though rates were very attractive and affordable. Many households were unable, or unwilling, to trade-up since they were under water, with the values of their homes less the outstanding mortgage balances. So, two main sources of demand for single family homes dried up. Lacking qualified buyers and with the flow of mortgage credit still an issue, activity in the single-family market activity will fall during the fourth quarter of 2010. The Housing Index will decline by 4%. Nonetheless, for the year as a whole the Housing Index in 2010 will move up by 4.6%, only one-half the rate expected last year. Pessimism from the end of 2010 and continuing troubles with lending will carry over into the singlefamily housing market for 2011. In the first quarter the Housing Index will decline by 11.3%, the largest annualized drop in two years. Although the activity will continue to be off during the rest of the year, the declines will be smaller. In 2011 the Housing Index will fall at an annualized rate of 9.4% in the second quarter, and then be off by 4.2% in the third quarter, and fourth quarter with a decline of 1.7%. For the year, the annual Housing Index will decline by 6.8% in 2011.

When 2011 comes to a close the Housing Index will have fallen by 31% from its 2006 peak. The Housing Index will be 161 (1990 = 100) for 2011, the same level it was at in 2000.

Multi-Family Thanks to Tom Cain, Apartment Insights for assistance.

The multi-family (apartment) market in Pierce County remained soft as 2009 came to a close. The county-wide overall vacancy rate was 9.2%, up from the third quarter level of 8.3%, and still well above the recent record low of 4.3% reached during the third quarter of 2008. Rents fell or remained flat in most of the county submarkets. In the county the average rent was $817 per month (or 97 cents per square foot), down by $10 from the third quarter. Overall the average rental rate remained below the peak levels of just one year ago. Troop deployments, primarily to Iraq and Afghanistan in 2009 from the areas military bases contributed a significant negative impact to the multi-family market, as did the general economic slowdown. As some troops returned in 2010 to the county and deployment rates leveled off, the apartment market began to improve in the first quarter. The overall vacancy rate dropped to 8.5%, with the most significant improvements in the Lakewood, South Tacoma, and University Place sub-markets (the areas most impacted by Joint Base Lewis-McChord). Rents remained flat from the prior quarter, with a county-wide average of $819 (97 cents per square foot) up by two dollars. The multi-family market registered significant improvement during the second quarter of 2010. The vacancy rate dropped to 7.1% and the average rent level moved up to $829. University Place and Fircrest continued to show lower than average vacancy rates. The sub-markets near Joint Base Lewis-McChord continued with above average vacancies. During the second half of 2010 the apartment market in Pierce County will continue to improve. The roughly 18,000 troops returning to Joint Base Lewis-McChord

will stimulate demand for housing, especially in the University Place, Lakewood, and South Tacoma areas. With little new building or conversions over the past two years the increased demand will mostly be met by reducing vacancies. Rents will begin to increase, or at least concessions will become less common. The outlook for the multi-family market through 2011 will depend to a great extent on the condition of the single-family residential market. To the extent that foreclosures, under water mortgages, and credit restrictions move households out of the ownership side of the housing market, they will have to turn to the rental side. Combined with increases in the numbers of the military (and their families), the demand for apartments will be strong throughout the year. New construction and conversions will increase, but will not have a significant impact on market conditions in 2011. Thus, rents should be increasing and vacancy rates should be falling throughout the year. Sub-markets near the military installations will experience the largest increases in activity, with the DuPont and Lacey markets also seeing above average improvement.

Commercial, Industrial and Office Real Estate

The bright spot for the Pierce County economy during this recession has been the industrial and commercial real estate sectors. Activity in the county remained strong through 2008, even as other areas in the central Puget Sound region were showing signs of weakness. Space absorption remained positive and rents stable as the local economy moved into the downturn at the end of 2008. More uncertainty and bad news hit regional commercial and industrial markets as 2009 started. The announcement that Boeing would expand in South Carolina rather than in Puget Sound was not good news for an already over-built regional market. In addition, Boeing planned to reduce local employment by 4,300 workers in 2009 and by another 2,000 in 2010. As one of the major users of commercial and industrial space, this announcement increased market pessimism. Pierce County Economic Index 17

Housing and Real Estate

However, through 2009 the Pierce County markets remained strong, bucking the regional trend. More than 1.5 million square feet of commercial and industrial space was absorbed in Pierce County markets. Almost all of this new space was for build-to-suit renters; very little space was being added on speculation. The demand by local wholesale, trade, and distribution tenants remained good through the year. The weak spot in Pierce County was for retail and office space. The recession and the attendant declines in retail spending produced increasing vacancies and rent softness. The county registered a very small positive net absorption during the fourth quarter of 2009, contrary to the regions sizable negative absorption rate. However, the news of Russell Investments move to Seattle added pessimism and worry. Also, new space was coming to the market in developments like Pacific Plaza. In Pierce County vacancies in Class A space remained low, but openings in other space continued to increase. The decline in activity through the Port of Tacoma reduced the demand for new distribution and warehouse space, although non-Port related demand in Pierce County continued fairly strong. But, the region-wide recession opened up more than 1.7 million square feet of space during the first half of 2010 in the Puget Sound area. By the summer of the year the industrial vacancy rate was starting to move downward, hitting about 8% in the region. Rents remained soft, as well. The impact was to reduce the supply of new space coming to the market to virtually zero. In Pierce County, through the first three quarters of 2010, conditions in the industrial and commercial real estate markets remained fairly good. Even though the decline in international trading activity through the 18 Pierce County Economic Index port put a damper on some development plans, new space in the Fife, Milton, Auburn, and East County areas continued to be absorbed. Although down from two years ago, there are still projects in Pierce Countys pipeline. Most are non-speculative developments such as the Tech Center in Puyallup, the Environmental Research and Education project for the Puyallup Tribe, Lusamerica Food Processors in Fife, and VersaCold Logistics at the Port of Tacoma. The office and retail real estate sectors remained depressed in 2010. Empty stores and offices due to the recession made leasing difficult. Some new space did come to the market, intensifying competitive pressures. Even though DaVita decided to remain in Tacoma, the departure of Russell Investments will put an unusually large amount of Class A space on the market as 2010 comes to a close. The outlook for commercial and industrial real estate in 2011 is cautiously optimistic. With not much new speculatively built or empty space on the market, vacancies should remain low and rents flat. On the other hand the demand for new buildings will be weak. Most of the major warehousing and distribution facilities are on line or have arrangements in place for leasing. The depressed level of shipping through the Port of Tacoma means the space now on the market should be sufficient. Retail real estate will continue to struggle throughout 2011. The volume of empty stores, lackluster increases in retail spending, and caution on the part of developers will keep vacancy rates above normal and rents likely to decline. Competition for retail outlets will be intense, especially as large owners (malls and major strip developments) fight to keep tenants and attract others.

It is not likely that much new retail space will be developed, and this diminished new competition should take some pressure off the market. Office real estate will face the most serious challenge in 2011. For the first time in quite a while the amount of vacant central city Class A space will increase, as Russell Investments vacates. In addition some new developments have already taken prime tenants. The increase in demand for office space will come mostly from tenants who have special space requirements (technology infrastructure, for example) that will be difficult (or expensive) for owners to provide. The increased Class A vacancy rate will open

opportunities (lower rents and more concessions) for tenants now in Class B or C space to move. Thus, during the year the office space market may experience some significant musical offices. During 2011 some new projects could come to market, in University Place, on the Tacoma waterfront, and at the renovated Elks Building. These projects will put additional pressure on owners to lower rents, provide improvements, and enter into longer term agreements. It will be tough year for owners of office space and retail establishments.

Pierce County Economic Index

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Port of Tacoma
Thanks to Josh Adams, Business & Economic Analyst, Commercial Group, Port of Tacoma Shipping Industry
After losing a combined $15 billion in 2009, the worlds top container lines have returned to profitability in 2010. While last year was marked by a race to the bottom in terms of dropping rates in an effort to maintain market share, by contrast 2010 has become a year for putting profits ahead of market share. As global trade has picked back up over the course of this year, carriers have been able to reactivate much of the vessel capacity that was idled last year when demand plummeted. Moving forward, however, carriers are cautiously managing their capacity through the re-instatement of service strings and laid-up vessels, careful price increases, and slowsteaming, a trend that began last year and has continued through 2010. How well the container lines maintain their newfound profitability depends on how well they continue to match vessel capacity with shipper demand. Over the near-term, the general sentiment of ocean carriers is one of cautious optimism.

Cargo Activity
3500 3250 3000 2750 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500

Throughout 2010 the Port of Tacomas container business continued to feel the effects of decisions made by ocean carriers in 2009. The loss of one major shipping line and one of the service strings of another in mid 2009, began a year-over-year decline in cargo volume that would continue throughout much of 2010. In addition, a small local population base and a limited number of carriers and services have precluded the Port from participating in the double digit cargo growth that most of the rest of the U.S. West Coast is experiencing. After dropping 17.0% in 2009, containers declined an additional 7.1% in 2010.
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Estimate Forecast

TEUs

1250 1000

Throughout the recession and after, the Port of Tacomas domestic business has served as both a bright point and a stabilizing factor to the Ports overall container business.

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Pierce County Economic Index

Serving Alaska and Hawaii, and accounting for about 34% of total container volume in 2010, the domestic business consists largely of staple items, or necessities, such as food, clothing, and materials for home building and repairs. In addition, the Alaska economy was not as hard hit by the recession as the rest of the U.S. and is recovering faster. Overall, the Ports domestic container business is up approximately 2.8% for 2010. After a significant drop in volume in 2009, the Ports breakbulk business is down again in 2010. Breakbulk consists heavily of items too large or awkward for efficient shipment in containers, and is made up in large part of special project and military cargo. One bright spot, however, is the return of the Ports log business due to surging demand for logs in China.

While breakbulk is down 6.5% in 2010, this has been offset by new log business coming through the Port. Auto imports for the year are projected at 112,000 units, down 4.5% from 2009, as many U.S. consumers continue to delay major purchases amidst continuing uncertainty around the economy. Looking forward, 2011 will see a return to modest growth for the Port of Tacomas container business. After three straight years of volume declines, container volume will increase by 4.4%, driven mainly by growth in international trade. Breakbulk will remain relatively flat, logs will jump a dramatic 26.3% as 2011 is compared against a partial year of volume in 2010, and autos will increase 8.1% as manufacturers increase their import volume through the Port.

2009
Total TEUs (000) International Domestic Lifts (000) Autos (000 units) Breakbulk (000 ST) Logs (000 board ft)

2010

2011

% Change 2010-2011

1,546 1,076 470 284 117 93 0

1,436 952 483 344 112 86 79,797

1,499 1,007 491 397 121 87 100,800 Forecast

4.40 5.80 1.70 15.50 8.10 1.00 26.3

Estimate

Pierce County Economic Index

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Data Tables
2006-2011 PCEI S u m m a r y a n d F o r e c a s t
Note: Data used to construct the charts, graphs and tables Pierce County, Washington

Year

Quarter

PCEI Index 1985=100

NonAgricultural Employment (x1000)

Percent Unemployment Rate

Taxable Retail Sales (millions of $)

Housing Activity Index 1990=100

2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 Forecast 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2011 Forecast

Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4

191.77 192.87 193.60 195.27 196.69 198.07 199.10 200.32 200.28 201.12 201.40 199.60 198.07 194.55 190.37 187.84 187.21 188.93 191.03 193.23 194.55 195.80 196.90 197.78

266.57 272.63 273.77 278.07 275.67 281.73 282.13 285.50 279.33 282.40 281.10 280.00 270.83 271.13 266.93 267.03 261.67 266.03 265.43 268.11 264.65 269.78 270.08 272.74
Forecast

5.43 5.20 5.03 4.57 5.00 4.57 4.60 4.47 5.27 5.23 5.53 6.13 8.97 9.50 9.37 9.17 10.83 9.37 9.07 8.45 9.39 8.93 8.72 8.55

1332.298 1481.413 1544.780 1596.354 1411.882 1518.671 1553.893 1601.366 1340.916 1434.081 1411.258 1373.646 1182.046 1266.311 1320.564 1358.523 1197.449 1289.481 1335.603 1385.610 1202.224 1307.782 1353.222 1399.509

236.50 237.22 231.89 227.54 226.25 220.37 207.81 197.51 188.29 174.21 170.44 164.83 160.54 161.55 165.54 171.38 179.66 176.73 168.55 164.54 159.29 160.18 161.56 161.77

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Pierce County Economic Index

Key and Legend

The Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber presents the PCEI Report annually at the Horizons Economic Forecast Event. Key local economic variables for Pierce County, Washington are as of November, 2010. PCEI Quarterly Data figures from First Quarter 2006 through Second Quarter 2010 are actual data. PCEI forecast of quarterly figures are from Third Quarter 2010 through Fourth Quarter 2011. Housing Activity Index: A volume of new or used homes for sale or sold. A value of 166.68 means the number of homes for sale or sold is 66.38% above the 1990 average of the number of homes for sale or sold. This is not an index of price or value. TEUs = Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units. This is a standard measure of containers, which come in a variety of lengths that are converted to this standard for data compatibility. The short ton is a unit of weight equal to 2,000 lb. (around 907.18474 kg).

Board Feet = A measure of volume in a tree, log or board. Based on sawn lumber dimensions, measures a board 1 foot by 1 foot by 1 inch, or some combination that yields 144 cubic inches. Typically referred to in units of one thousand board feet. Total Personal Income Annual Data are actual data from 2002 to 2008. The forecast of annual figures for Total Personal Income are for 2009 through 2011. The Port of Tacoma Containerized Cargo Annual Data are actual data from 2006 through 2009. The forecast of annual figures for the Port of Tacoma Containerized Cargo is for 2010-2015. The Pierce County Economic Index (PCEI) is sponsored by: Speaker Sponsor: Port of Tacoma Supporting Sponsor: Puget Sound Energy Contributing Sponsor: Regence BlueShield Report Sponsor: Business Health Trust-South Sound TV Sponsor: Boeing Company Sponsor: Carlile Transportation

Pierce County Annual Data

Total Personal Income 2005$ (x1000) 23,653,095 24,085,978 24,620,537 25,580,131 27,169,594 28,289,802 28,466,959 27,717,395 27,923,845 28,784,883 Percent Change 2.04% 1.83% 2.22% 3.90% 6.21% 4.12% 0.63% -2.63% 0.74% 3.08% Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Port of Tacoma Containerized Cargo (TEUs) 2,067 1,959 1,861 1,546 1,436 1,499 1,532 1,579 1,613 1,654 Percent Change 0.00% -5.22% -5.00% -16.93% -7.12% 4.39% 2.20% 3.07% 2.15% 2.54%

Pierce County Economic Index

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Special Thanks thanks

The 2010-2011 Pierce County Economic Index (PCEI) Report was presented to the community at the Horizons 2011 economic forecast event. Complementing the conference were presentations by several noteworthy individuals.

Dr. Bruce Mann Dr. Douglas Goodman University of Puget Sound

A very special thanks is extended to University of Puget Sound, for their active support of Dr. Bruce Mann and Dr. Douglas Goodman, authors of the PCEI. The University of Puget Sound is an independent predominantly residential undergraduate liberal arts college with selected graduate programs building effectively on a liberal arts foundation. The University, as a community of learning, maintains a strong commitment to teaching excellence, scholarly engagement, and fruitful student-faculty interaction.

Dr. Robert F. Baur, Ph.D.

Chief Global Economist Principal Global Investors

Robert F. Baur, Ph.D. is the managing director and chief economist for Principal Global Investors. In this capacity, he establishes and directs global economic policy and strategy, oversees and conducts macroeconomic and quantitative research, forecasts economic trends and anticipates market movements, and advises the investment staff in making economically sound investment decisions. He joined The Principal in 1995, and prior to assuming his current role, he oversaw equity, fixed income and currency trading. Dr. Baur received a Ph.D. in economics and a bachelors degree in mathematics from Iowa State University. He also completed post-doctoral study in finance and economics at the University of Minnesota. He has numerous speaking engagements in the US and around the world. Dr. Baur is frequently quoted by the financial news media and appears regularly on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. 24 Pierce County Economic Index

Sponsor thanks
Speaker Sponsor: Port of Tacoma Supporting Sponsor: Puget Sound Energy Report Sponsor: Business Health Trust-South Sound TV Sponsor: The Boeing Company Contributing Sponsor: Regence BlueShield Floral Sponsor: Carlile Transportation Systems

PCEI Report Sponsor Business Health Trust - South Sound

The Business Health Trust program provides competitive group rates through contracts with the largest and most respected insurance carriers in the state of Washington. For groups from 2 to 149 employees, this comprehensive program provides ease of administration with consolidated service for one stop billing and eligibility.

Included as well are the discounted Section 125 services, COBRA administration, and electronic fulfillment with plan booklets, summaries and forms. Ask your broker for a proposal through the Business Health Trust today or contact by email chamberinfo@bbtacoma.com.

Benefit Program
Competitive Pricing Comprehensive Products

South Sound Brown & Brown of Washington Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber

Sponsored by: Program Managment provided by:

Consolidated Adminstration Worksite Wellness

www.businesshealthtrust.com

Pierce County Economic Index

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950 Pacific Avenue, Suite 300 Tacoma, WA 98402 p | 253.627.2175 f | 253.597.7305

tacomachamber.org 26 Pierce County Economic Index