HERRY JOSHI

21111523
BUSINESS STATISTICS

CIA 3

STATISTICAL REPORT AND FUTURE ESTIMATES

Company chosen: Oriental Hotels

Submitted By: HERRY JOSHI

21111523
2 BBA C

Teacher In charge: STANNY DIAS

 INTRODUCTION

Oriental Hotels Limited (OHL), a Taj group hotel arm, was incorporated in the year 1970 as a
public limited company. The Group’s principal activities are to own and operate hotels and
restaurants. Taj Coromandel, Chennai is the flagship hotel of the company. It is first Five Star
Luxury Hotel in the city.
The different units of the group are, Taj Coromandel, Chennai, Taj Fisherman's Cove, Cove
long, Taj Malabar, Kochi, Taj Garden Retreat, Madurai, Taj Garden Retreat, Coonoor, Taj
Residency, Visakhapatnam and Hotel Manjarun, Mangalore.
Taj Coromandel, Chennai– A choice of 205 elegantly appointed rooms including 22 opulent
suites. The hotel offers complete wireless internet connectivity, cyber butlers, a wide range of
distinctive dining options, and more.
Fisherman's Cove– A choice of 205 elegantly appointed rooms including 22 opulent suites.
The hotel offers complete wireless internet connectivity, cyber butlers, a wide range of
distinctive dining options, and more.
The boards of Oriental hotels and Cove long Beach Hotels on October 26,2001 approved a
proposal to merge the three – Oriental hotels (OHL), Cove long Beach Hotels and
Coromandel Hotels.
Oriental and Cove long Beach were listed companies though the latter is not traded.
Coromandel Hotels is a 100% subsidiary of OHL. The proposed swap ratio was of two shares
of OHL for every five shares of Cove long Beach. Post the merger, the Taj group holds
34.5% of OHL.
The merger enhanced shareholder value for OHL shareholders and increased the asset base,
net worth, operating profits and earnings per share (EPS). The merger also provided greater
liquidity to the Cove long Beach Hotel shareholders, since the OHL stock is traded on the
exchanges.
In this report, I have used the past five years Sales and Book Value Per Share (BVPS) of the
company and found the correlation between them. I have fit a trend line to the graph,
computed the probable error and constructed a scatter diagram. I have used the method of
time series analysis (3 year moving average) to estimate the sales for the next 5 years.
Correlation helps us to know the extent to which the variables are related to each other. If the
coefficient of correlation is high, this means that the variables highly affect each other.
The objective of the project is to analyse the past year data of oriental hotels, find the degree
of relatedness of the variables.
DESCRIPTION OF THE DATASET

I have taken year as the first variable (x) and sales as the second variable (y). For the purpose
of plotting a scattered diagram, I have taken another variable, i.e.; Book Value Per Share. The
dataset is taken for 5 years, 2017-2021.

CALCULATION
CORRELATION: The correlation is found to be -0.79, using Karl Pearson’s method of
calculating Coefficient of correlation. This shows that the variables, year and sales, have a
strong negative correlation.
PROBABLE ERROR: The probable error is 0.113. This means that the correlation might
fluctuate by 0.113 either on the positive side or the negative side. For correlation to exist, the
correlation must be more than 6 times the probable error. This condition is satisfied here, so
the correlation exists.
SCATTER DIAGRAM:
The scatter diagram shows the correlation between the Sales and Book Value Per Share.

TREND LINE

In the given graph, the yellow line represents the trend line and the blue line shows the actual
data. By the help of trend line, we can estimate the next year’s performance. Although this
estimate is not much accurate but it helps in certain situations.
ANALYSIS
I have used time series analysis (3 year moving average) to analyse the next five year’s sales
of the company. Following is the data: -
2022- 138.00cr
2023- 88.00cr
2024- 38.00cr
2025- 0
2026- 0
Using the method of 3 year moving average, I have found out the next 5 year’s sales. It can
be seen that the sales for the year 2025 and 2026 have been shown as 0. This is because, upon
applying the formula, the value which I got was negative, as sales cannot be a negative
number so, I have shown it as zero.
INTERPRETATIONS
The following points can be interpreted from the given data: -
 The sales have started declining from 2020, this may be because of the rapid spread of
the corona virus and the restrictions on tourist movements.
 The forecasting of the future sales is not accurate due to heavy fluctuations in the
pandemic years.
 The accuracy of time series analysis is very high as it has shown considerably
accurate results in spite of these heavy fluctuations.
CONCLUSION
In this project, I got to know about the usage of various statistical tools and their application.