MASTERS OF ARTS IN PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES 2019

AN ANALYSIS OF THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY AS PREDICTED BY SHAWN

ROSENBERG
By Moses Obete
Reg No: 2019/HD03/30041U
Key highlights of the paper and comments on them:
1. Democracy is devouring itself and it won’t last before it is finally replaced.
Rosenberg seems to argue that democracy is getting weak and weaker but only due to the
freedoms it has created. The argument here seems to be that the very attributes of democracy are
the reasons for its devouring. The scholar gives example of Donald Trump who is more
authoritarian as the symbol of democracy’s decline as seen in his anti-immigrant populist
campaigns. Although Trump was elected, his rule has been characterized by weird campaigns,
and appointments and firing of secretaries. These actions make him more of an authoritarian
leader than a democrat.
2. Democracy requires hard work from the elites (experts, and public figures) and the
society alike. This also requires respects for differing views and culture. In a democratic
society, the population is empowered to choose their leaders. They have a big responsibility of
sieving out the candidates and determining who finally ascends to the power as the leader. This
is a great responsibility which can only be well executed if the population understands the
demands of leadership or what is entailed in the post for which they are to vote a leader. It also
requires tolerance of other people’s views. Rosenberg in this paper seems to suggest that not
everyone is capable of deciding on who is right to lead. He also suggests that it is the
responsibility of the elites
3. Citizens have always been ill-equipped cognitively and emotionally to run a well-
functioning democracy. As a result, millions of frustrated and anguish filled voters have
turned in desperation to right wing populists. Rosenberg in this statement tended to imply that
the citizens have difficulty in discerning the type of leader they want and that sometimes their
decisions are based purely on emotions and as such, they are likely to choose a leader not based
on his/her capabilities but because of other factors e.g. race, ethnicity, religion etc.
4. Democracy will continue its decline and will finally collapse. The postulation that
democracy will continue to decline stems from the report that indicated that towards the last half
of the 20th century there were only 12 democracies world over but it had increased to 87 by the
end of the century. Then there was a sharp reversal to this trend as the right-wing populist
politicians either took over power or have threaten to in Poland, Hungary, France, Britain, Italy,
brazil, and USA. It is also noted that their share of power vote in Europe tripled from 4% in 1998
to 13% in 2018. It is this statistic that according to Rosenberg, indicates a preference to
authoritarianism as opposed to western democracy. In Africa for examples, citizens have taken
up arms in very countries to oppose elected government. Recent examples include Zimbabwe
under the late President Robert Mugabe, Egypt under the late President Mosi.

MASTERS OF ARTS IN PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES 2019

 MASTERS OF ARTS IN PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES 2019

5. Right wing populist governments will take over because they offer voters simple
answers to complicated questions. According to Rosenberg, people prefer quick and simple
solutions to the existing problems not the elaborate procedures of democracy. And according to
him, this makes the right-wing populist tickle. In Uganda, it is this same idea that has seen many
people rally behind the likes of Dr Kizza Besigye and Hon Robert Kyagulanyi. If this trend
continues, even in Uganda democracy may collapse.
6. Human beings don’t think straight. They have biases of various kinds. Rosenberg
argues that even the elites have biases and therefore could not think straight. He seems to prefer
the platonic approach to leadership in which the leader is seen as emanating from god. If we
relate this to his earlier work in which he indicated that people were voted based on their looks,
we can as well say that handsome people are more likely to be voted than brilliant leaders. In the
Ugandan situation, some people have been voted to positions of leadership due to their looks.
While others have been voted to positions due to their popularity and not leadership potentials. It
is safe to say that it is this popularity that earned some musicians and comedians slots in the
parliament of Uganda.
7. Elites are losing the grip of informing the masses about democracy as a result of the
emergency of social media and new technologies such as the internet and blogs. Democracy
strive on the account that some groups of people who are unbiased will teach the masses on the
right path to take but according to Rosenberg the elites who should do tis are in fact losing it.
The current generation now gets information through social media, internet stories and blogs.
This, he says can be used by right-wing populist to propagate wrong information which can lead
the voters to elect candidates based on wrong information. Evidence points to trump’s election as
having benefited from such misinformation.
8. Unlike democracy that makes many demands, the populists make only one. It is easy
to pledge allegiance to authoritarian than do hard work of thinking for yourself as
demanded by democracy. According to Rosenberg, there is a shift to authoritarian due to the
elaborate nature of democracy. In Uganda for instance, the quest for votes has interfered with
several developmental plans such as the redesigning of Kampala city, construction of standard
gauge railway line etc. it is argued that, the government finds it hard to annoy voters since it
could lose elections if it tries to do so. As a result, an authoritarian leadership would be more
preferable.
9. People will interpret what is demanded of them in a distorted and inadequate ways.
In this argument, Rosenberg appreciates the variation in interpretation of the leader’s
requirement. In Uganda for example, most people expect members of parliament to be the ones
to open up roads and build school. They would therefore vote for people who make such
promises even if it is outside their mandate. As such wrong people are elected to leadership
position through popular democracy.
Conclusion
10. It may be quite early to conclude that democracy devouring itself or that it would be
replaced. It however clear that a new trend has emerged – a tendency towards authoritarian rule.

MASTERS OF ARTS IN PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES 2019

 MASTERS OF ARTS IN PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES 2019

The rebellious nature of man signifies that man may be better handled by only a few who possess
power.

MASTERS OF ARTS IN PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES 2019