Chapter -2 [Conditional Probability and Baye’s Theorem] 2.1 [Conditional Probability] Definiti Let And B be the two evens associated with random experiments. Then the probability ofoccurrence of Aunder Scr tt tea Son ri. doe) ] where PB) 0. ‘Similarly, probability of occurence of B under the condition tat event Aha aleady occurred is called eonitional bain. dress romeo 2.2. [Multiplication Theorem on probability] (It is also called “Theorem of Compound Probability”) ‘Theorem: IfA and Bare two events associsted with random experiments then P(AMB)= P(A) PCBADIE (A) #0 Or P(AMB)= PCR) P(A) IEP (B) 20 ‘We can generalise this result to more than two eventsas —P{A,MA;MA,ManwfVA,) PAD PIASTAD PIAS! A,DIAg Vosoe POAIA,A; Moen) Remark: P(ANB) AaB) POUAN egy HPIAD 20 = PMD= “EGG iP) 20 Remark: Number of events favourable to B and A PQA)= ‘Number of events favourable to A sana Netiber of ents favourable of and A Pan)~ Number of events favourable to B Examples 1, HfAand B aretwo events such that P(A) = 7/13, P(B)=9/13 and P(AMB) 4/13 find P (AV). Solution: “ p(aan)_ 43 Pam: oe 7) 9,9 2. IEP (A)= 0.4, P(B) = 08 and P (BA) = 06, find P(A/B) and P(AUB). Solution: ‘i P(AnB) PADD) gg ACM gre -r(ann) 5 = 06- PBIA)= B05) Of ream. a5 3 P(AUB) © P(A) +P (B)-P(ANB) > 04 +0.8-0.24= 0.96 0)Chaptor-2_|_Conditional Probability and Baye's Theorem P21 3. Froma pack of 52 cards, two are drawn one by one without replacement. Find the probability that both of them are hings Solution: Let Abe the event that first card drawn is king. Let B be the event that second card drawn is king. Required probability = P(AMB) = P (A) PUBIAY oe 2G ity that second card drawn is king if the first card drawn was also king ‘C Ina pack of 32 cards, there are 4 kings =: P(A)= 3 P (BIA) = Probabi eG Set oe | Fe," 517 77 (Aer drawing king as first ear, total 3 kings are left) P(ANB) =P (AYP BIA) 1g head on thitd toss. Fin is tossed three times, if head occurs on first two tosses, find the probability of get \ Solution: = - Let S be the sample space associated with random experiment. S~ (HHH, HHT, HTH, THE, HTT, THT, TH, TTT} Consider the following events. |A. Head occurs on first two tosses B. Head occurs on third toss. 7 Required probability = Pavay= PACE) cequired probability = P ( ray 7 Ae (UNM, HIT} B= QUE LETH, THM 7TH tg ot Aqnb =H: P(AMB)= 18 PW Pupiay~ 58 =1 5. Tencards numbered 1 to 10 afe placed ina box, mived up thoroughly an! then one card ie draw rendomly. fit is known that the numbers on the drawn eardis more than 3, what is the probability that tis an even number? Solutio: Let S be the sample space associated with random experiment. S= th, 10} Consider the following two events. A. Number dranyn is more than 3B. Number drawn isan even number A= 145.6, 7.8, cee 10D B~ (2.4.6.8, 10) AMD = 14.6.8, 10} ‘ , P(AqB) Required probity = PaWAY= “EES eee PEAS TAO 2 Required probability = 10 ‘At 12 white and 6 black bulls. Two bulls are dean in suovession without replacement, What is the Probab istack? Solution: Let A be the event that fest ball drawn is white, {Lett be the event that second ball drawn is black, Required probability © P(AMB) =P(AIP UWA) Now, M(A) = Protsbility that fest ball drawn i whiteBCA. Mathematics (Second Semester) P22 —— ‘New total thee are 18 balls, out of which 12 re white P(W/A)=Probsily of geting lack alin ssond dei fetal dans white ‘Now fit al da is white. then we re Ft ih tl 7 al ot of whch 6 are lack, ‘6 od on PQA) Required probability = 5°35 77 7. Cards are dealt one by one from a full deck until queen appears, show that probability tht exactly *n’ cards are dealt before the frst queen appears is 4{51-ny5S0-mK39-m) 52.51.5049 Solutis Probability tht first a queen appears in the first draw Similarly fist queen does not appear inthe thind draw LetE, be the evert that first queen appears # draw, 8 ie PE) Bs mEyEp ie PE JE, E,nE, ‘Se I-2) ty that exactly ‘n’ cards are deals before frst queen appears means that queen appeared rE) a) E/E) POEs EE) P(E EXE Aan Eo) Hace substiuting these values in equation (I) we get 4847, 46 Sion Sion, S0-n_, 49en_ 4 BSD 50 Rd) (a3) ACAD) DOD Son Sx5TSOAD Abbag contains 7 white and & black balls Four balls ae dawn a time. Find the probability forthe frst dravs to ‘give 4 white and the second draw to give black balls in each of following cases when balls are not replaced before second draw. Also find probability when balls are replaced before the second draw. $Solutior ° (() Consider the case when balls are not replaced before second draw Consider the following two events A: First draw results in “4° white balls 1B: Second draw results in 4” black balls fi a Required probability = P(AB) = PIA) P(BV/A). Now P(A)8 P(e acy Sow Chapter=2_| Conditional Probability and Bayo's Theorem P23 P(DIA) = Probability drawing 4 black balls given that 4 white balls are drawn = 7 * 1c, Hence P(AB ws (ii) Consider the case when balls are replaced before the second draw then P(AB)=P(A) P(B) [A and B are independent events} Cy where P(A) = :. PAB) 39°39 Gy 9. Abag contains ‘n’ white and ‘n’ blue balls. Pairs of balls are drawn without replacement until the bag is empty. ‘Show that probability that each pair consists of one white and one blue ball is Solution: Let A, be the event of getting one white and one blue ball in * draw. Required probability = P(A,A,MA,N-1A,) = POA,) P(Ag/A,) P(AS/ ALMA) [By multiplication theorem) As there are total of 2n balls, n of where and » of blue] Boor eka t [After drawing 2 balls 2n-2 balls ae lef, »-1 of each colour} : 1 7G, MGC | (n-2F PUSAN A) = —aeeg = C, Hence at the time of (n-1) draw; there will be 4 balls, (nm-(n-I-1)) = 2 of each colour Atthe time of 1 draw, there will be only 2 balls, (m-(m-1 toxc Pld Md Ayo) ® “LES = - PANAMA) 2.3. [Independent Events] Definition: ~ Excnts are said to be independent of each other ifthe happening of any one of them does not affect the happening fofany other i.e. P (VB)=P (A)and P(B/A) = P(B)BCA.Mathematies (Sec; SE trey Sey When a dice is thrown twice, result of fst thw is indepeniet fhe resi ofthe second throw, ‘Theorem: And re independent events aseaciatd with random exetinent then P(AmvB)=P(A)-P(R) Proof: ween tO a pape HAC8) sp(anb)=P(A)-P(0) PiAB)= - (nByePay Pane Pa Result: WA and are independent events assovated wih a random expres te: (2) 3 a0d B are independent events (b) Aand B eeinkpendent evens and are also independent events (a)AS A 3nd B are independent events PAN) = PAB). Now (40. BY (ANB) =B SPB PNB) = MB) (evb 204 inp ae mutually ectusve events) PCa By» PeB)~ PLANED) PNB) © PMI PA)|= BVP) = PCB) = PE.PB) SF andar indpendcarevents (b) Similar to (a) by considering 4.8 and 4 jj two mutually exclusive events (e) Consider PANE) = PAB) ot mua) = 1 LPUAy + PU PAB) = IAA) + PB) PAVIA) (Aso Barcinependen ents} PEA) PUB) + PAVED) = PUAN POR PA = [PUA PD) = PCPA Result: IEA and Bare indepedent events associated to a random experiment then PLAGE) = Plofoccurtence of atleast one} Pave PBFA By = Phoths BYP) = 1=[1= 21) = PU PUANPL = 1 [1= PN) PBK PU 1fa PU PLA) 1-H =P)Chaptor-2_| Conditional Probability and Baye's Theorem Examples 10, IFP (not B= 0.65, P(AUB) = 0.85 and A and Bare independent events, then find P(A). Solution: ?(3)~ 0.65, P(AUB)~ 0.85 Now P(AUB) = P(A) 4P (B)-P(A MB) P(AUB) = P(A) +P CL)-PCAIPU) (A and I are independent events) = POAD + PCD) = PIA) = PAYA =P CH= PD) =P(A)+ (1 065)(1 P(A) = P(AD + 0.35.1 PAD > 085=065 P(A) +035 => 085-035-065 P(A) = P(A)" 05/065 = 10/3 n thrown twice. Consider the following two events. even number on first throw even number on second throw ‘Check the independence of events Aand B Solution: Let S be the sample space associated with random experiment (1) (12) (13) - - (6) (21) (22) (3) = - (2) Cae (61) (62) (63) - - (66) 1) 2) 23) (2) 25) C6) (1) 42) G3) (48) (45). (46) (61) (62) (63) (4) (65) (66) a2) as) 06) 22) @) 6) (82) G4) G6) a Be {(42) (48) (46)! 5 (52) (54) (56) (62) (64) (66) 4) 4) 26) (2) (4) (49) ANB™|(62) (64) (66) = = P(ans)- 2 <4 sNew P(A AB)=+ and P(A)-P(B) PEAAB)=P(A)-P(B) Hence, and 1 are independent events. . 12. LP CAY= 18, PET) = 1/4 and PAY = US, Check whether, ( Aand Bare mutually exelusive events (i) and fave intependent events Solution: @ Pavay=CA. Mathematics (Second Semester) P-26 Bs —————— ee 1_P(AnB) 1 1 Boag TPAD). Nowas P(AnD) = Ze ‘and B are not mutually exclusive events mam 222) ag rem a Sein and P(AMB)= 2 Wald Now P(A) xP O)= 6 ‘Aand Bare not independent events NowP(AMB)# P(A) xP(O) 13. Actas consists of 100 students, 25 of them are ges and 75 boys, 20 of them reich and remaining poor, 40 of them are fir complexioned. What isthe probability of selecting fe complexoned ich gir? Solution: A; Selected student sa girl, Cs Selected student is fir complexioned Probability of selecting afar complexioned rich gi x 0 Now P(A)= 2°; pay 22. POAD= jog PO)" ig Now as A,B and C are independent events P(ArBac)=P(A)-P(B)-P(C) = P(AnBaC) 800 _ 25x8_ 200 _ 99 000000 ~ 10000 ~ 10000 3 red and 7 black balls. One balls drawn at random ‘A bay contains 4 red and 5 black balls. Second bag conta from each bag. Find the probability that the (i) balls are of different colours (i balls re of same colour Solution: ‘Consider the following events , : Drawing red bll from Bag 1 _ 2, : Drawing red ball from Bg. 1 : Drawing back bal rom Bag 1* Bh: Drawing black ball fom Bag 1 : 4 3 es Clearly, (R,)=5.P(R =r) P(B,)= 75 (3) When tll are of different colours, we have the folowing eases (Case I: Drawing Red bal fom fag I end black ball fom Bag tt =P(R,B,) =P(R,)-P(B:) [Rs and Bs 246 independent events} ag Case I: Drawing Black bll fom Bag 1 and Red ball from Ba8 : and R, are independent ee] =P(B,AR,) =P(B,)-P(R;) £8. o a Required Probat 690 Ci) Whaat ae ofsane eto, we ete ena 32 (Case ts Drawing Rell rom Bag | 2m gain, event a . 5 =P(R,)-P(R;) ER, amd “ MS, ee IM RSChapter-2_| Conditional Probability and Baye's Theorem P-27 Case M1: Drawing Black ball from Bag I and again Black ball from Bag It (B, OB,) =P(B,)-P(B,) (8, and B, are independent events} 77 7 9°10 8 1518 90 18. Abagcontains 4 white and 2 black balls. Another bag contains 3 white and 5 black balls. Ifone ball is drawn from cach bag. Find the probability thatthe (i) both are white (i) both are black (ii) One is white and the other is black. Solution: Co Required Probability: the following events Ay: Drawing white ball from 1* Bag ‘Ay: Drawing white ball from 2™ Bag B,: Drawing black ball from 1* Bag, B,: Drawing black ball from 2 Bag, [Bag I contains 6 balls and Bag II contains 8 balls 4 5 rade’ : 3 (a) =$,P(4,)=3.7(0,)=2,0(0,) 3 (© P(@oththebals sr white) . =P(A,VA,) = (A, and A ar independent evens] 7 4,301 ora (i) P (Both te balls are black) =P(B, OB,) =P(B,)-P(B,) [B, and B, are independent events} ii) We have the following two cases Case I: P (Drawing White ball from Bag f and black ball from Bag It) (A, 0B, ) =P(A,)-P(B,) [A, and B, are independent events} ‘case I: P (Drawing Block ball om Bag fand white bal from Bag I) oe ee mi 4 Required Probabitiy= 44 = 8 cee 16, _‘pristhe probability that a man aged x will die within a year. Find the probability that out of five men A, B, C,D ‘and E each aged x, A will die during the year and the first to di Solution: iven that probability that a man aged x years will die wi jin a year= p probability that a man aged x years will not die within a year = 1- p = probability that neither of the five persons die within a year = (1 p)* => P (atleast one man dies within a year) = 1=(1= p)’ “There are five persons . every one has the same chance of ing dead first. 2. P(A will die and first to sh-¢-0'] 17. Given that probability that A can solve a problem is 23 and the B can solve the same problem is 3/5. Find the probabiliy that none of two will be able to solve the problem. Solutior Consider the fllowing events BE: Accan solve the problem FF: Tan solve the problem early P(E) = 2/3 and P (P= 3/5 ‘Also E and F are independent events 2, P(EMF) =P(E)-P(F)P-28 B.C.A. Mathematics (Second Semoster) Oe Probability that none of the two will be able to solve the problem «P(EnF)=P(EGF) Now P(EUE) « Pie) +P(I-P(EOF) PSSST IS as one is 18. A problem in mathematics is pvento 3 tlets whose chess soln tare 12,13. anl V4, Whats the Probability atthe protien iwc? Solutio Consider the folowing events (As Ist stent sles the problem 11 2nd staat solves the problem 3 : Src student ses the problem PUA) = 12,000) WB and P(C)= 14 leary A, Wand Care independent events Problem wil be sold if at eas one stunt salves the problem “P(AUQUC) » Required probability . 1-0 )0@PCC) -1-f 19. AspeahstrchinSo%ofcasesand in sOofhe cases, Int percenogeofesesare thy ike to contradict ach other sting the sn at? Solution: onside th following events —s E2A speaks truth . Fctpeas nth 0 Payee nasray=os, _ FE and Fae independent evens Cteanly 1 and Fw eft cach ober nthe ollawing eases (Case 1: Aspeas th and tls ai P(A speaks rah and tls) 4 = h(E F) = Pee P(F) 05 «02-08 (Case 1 speaks rah an Atel = PD spas th and tll i) = P(eevt) =payP(E) «08 » 05 = 04 Required probably 0.14 04 = 05 20. The probability of student passing an examination is 1/7 nd of student passing i $77. Assuming two event of passing the examination be independent, find the probability of (i) Only B passing the examination (ii) Only Solution: + Consider the following events IF; Student A passes the examination F : Stude P(E)= P= 57 (i) P (Only B passing the examination) i fs B oe the examination an alin the examiton) P(E rE) = vr) xP(E) [and Ee independent events) one of them passing the examination B passes the examinationChaptor-2 | Conditional Probability and Bayo's Theorem 1) Whiz ony one ofA ad pcs he sraination, hae the boy esc Gey sh puae te caiaicas teas pa pases the examination an is P(EAFl ee iS = r(EnF) -Py w(F) = }+(1-3) Case t= 8 pases the examination and A fits = (@ paesthe amination and A fas) = P(e) = Pe) «P(E) 3,630 . Jo Required probability = 5 a a sta eves wil beable todsve tomes ater inking ar. and repel ir tuto dive home afer pag, sats th pba tal he ce ie wt ave seen? ashe si tat et oe der wil eve howe 92 Solution: dere ting events aes eme sy Siamuneaeronesty riigveanerrone sich (i P(althe divers will ave aceidens) v(RnBing)=P(A)«P(H) uy 2, MfAand B are two events such that 2° (A)= P (B) = 75 and P(AVB)= 3, find P(AUB)— — [AR® 26 3. Adice sthrown three mes. Find P (A/1) and P (BVA), iTA=4 appears in the third tossB = 6 anc! 5 appea! Fe" spectively on the first two tosses fans. 6°36 4. Anclectronic assembly consists of two sub-systems say Aand B. From previous testing procedures, the following probabilities are assumed to be known; (A fails)=0.2, P(B failsalone)=0.15, P(A and B fail) ~ 0.13. Find P fails alone) [Ans. 0.05] 5. Twodiceare thrown, Find the probability that the numbers appeared has the sum 8, if it known that the 1 second dice always exhibits 4. fans. 2 6. Adieisrolled. Ifthe outcome is odd number, what isthe probability that it isa prime? [ans 5] 7. Imaschool, there are 1000 students, out of which 430 are girls. Itis known that out of 430, 10% of the girls study in class XII. What is the probability that a student chosen randomly studies in class XII? given that chosen student isa girl tAns.0.1] 8 Twodiceare thrown. Find the probability of getting an odd number on the first dice and a multiple of 3 on other. 5 [Ans. 16] 9. Abag contains 5 white, 7 red and 8 black balls. ee ee eae ae “Tame (3) 3 on on each of the 2 independent events | and Il. Suppose the probability of error in 0,02 and that on event Il is 0.05. Find the probability that the scientist will make correct decision on both the events. [Ans. 0.931]B.CA, Mathematics (Second Semester, P-32 eee ee We Amunbiasd dies sed tie, Find he pba of geting Soren estos and 12,30 on he (Ans, + {Ans 5 second toss, 12, It and 1 aretvo indcpendet evetssch that F(RevB) * 218 ad PAC) = 16, find PD) (Ans, 60645) 13. Two balls are drawn at random with replacement from a box contsining 10 black and 8 red balls. Find the probability hat fist balls lak ad second sed {Ans. 20781) ‘A combination lock of suitcase has 3 wheels each labeled nine digits from 1 109. 1fan opening combination is a MW ity ofa person guessing the right combina- raricular sequence of thre digits wih no repeat, whi the prob ton? {Ans. 1504) 1S. ITP(A)=0.50,P (B)=0.0.nd P(AUB) =0.7, find P (NB) and P(AAVB) where Z isthe complement of {ns. Independent] + Ax Check whether A and B are independent 16. A candidate is selected for interview of tee posts. For the fist pos, there ar candidates, forthe second there ae 8 and forthe thitd there are 7, What are the chances his geting at east one pos? (Ans. 2/5] 17. There are two bags. The fist contains 2rd and | white lls whereas the second beg has only 1 red and 2 white balls. One balls taken out at random from the first bag and ising put inthe second, Then ball i chosen at random from the second beg. Whats the probability thatthe lst ball isred? = Ans. 5/12] 18. A bag contains 3 fed and S back balls anda second hog contains 6 redand 4 Back balls. From any one ofthese bees. asinle eet of wo balsismade, Find the psi atone ised andthe thera Uns. 19. and B are two students of stasis and their chances of solving a problem i ies comet are 1/6 and 1/ Brest: epitome nly inte aes Se (Ans. 15/16} probability that answer is correct. ‘The odds that a person A speaks the wuth are 3: 2 and the odds that person B speaks the truth are $: 3. In what Ans. 47.5%) 2. Percentage of cases are they likely to contradict each other in stating the same fact? 2.4 [The Law of Total Probability) ae. Law of Total Probability : I Let $e the sample space. Let Ey Enna, be miualyexhsive and exusv events associated with random experiment (Clea Es arin abe) Iris any event which occu With EOF fn, ten P(E) = P(E, )P(B/E,)+P(E, )P(EIE, )+. P(E, )P(BE,) Proof: As given that Es ((= tn) rematuly ec and exhaustive cies, SE, UE, UE, nom B, and Fi kjep fri j Now : BENS E=EA(E, UE, UE, Uwe VE.) EME, )U(ENE,JU(EME, Yow (EE,) - = P(E) =P[(ENE,JUENE, YEE Yon 4(EOE)] ~O = P(E) =P(ENE,)+P(ENE,)+ +P(ENE,) Also P(EME,)=P(E,) P(E, i= 1 ton [By Muliplicston Theorem of probability] Hence, substituting valuesin () we eet (6 )(E8,) ac P(E) = P(E,) P(EE,) +P(E,) P(E)~ ~ Cac | andanat ratty arden hao) p-33 Examples 26, Atay AconunsS whicand black als. Another bag B contains 4 hicand3 Mack balls All itras(rred from bag Ato the bag B and then ball is taken out of the second bag. id the probability of this ball being black. Consider the following events 2 White ball is transferred frpm fiest bag A to second bag 18 3 Black ball is transfered from first bag A to second bag B Blackball is drawn from second bag B Now, as first bag contains 5 white and 6 black balls ‘ +:P(E,)= 5/1 Similarly, P(E,)= 6/11 : If the event E, has already occurred (i.c. white ball is transferred from A to B), then in Bag B now we have 5 White and 3 black balls ~ P(E, == Irth event E, has already occurred (i black ball is transferred from A to B), then in Bag B now we have 4 white and 4 black balls P(ER, Also ftom Law of Total Probability, we have 3,64 15,24 39 - “s" 18 88" 88 88 - 27. Two third of the students in a class are boys and rest girls. [tis known that the probability of a girl getting a first class is 0.32 and that ofa boy getting a fist class is 0.25. Find the probability thata student chosen at random will _get a first class marks in the subject. Solitio Consider the following events boy is selected from the class E,: girl is selected from the class IE: selected student gets first class marks inthe subject P(E) P= P(E,) P(BE,) +P(E,) P(EE,) 2 a P= P(E) P(BE,)+P(Es)P(EE, 300 "300 300” 150 1 0.254203: 3 3 28. Apurse I conlains 2 silver and 4 copper coins. A secorid purse Il cont 4 silver and 3 copper coins. Ifa coin is pulled at random from one of the two purses, what is the probability that it isa silver coin? jon: Soh Consider the following events E,: Purse lis chosen B, : Purse I is chosen E : Silver coin is drawn from the purse As in total, there are two purses Land I c event E,has already occurred (i.e. purse 1 is ehosen), thenB.C.A. Mathematics (Second Semoster) P34 SS 29, ‘The contents of three bags I H and areas follows: ag I: 2 white, 4 blue and 4 red balls, Mag I 3 white, L blue and 2 red balls : ag I: 3 white, 2 Noe and 3 rod balls ‘Abag is chosen at random and two halls are drawn. What isthe probability that the balls dravn are of colour blue and red? Solution: Consider the following events E,ag Lis chosen E,: Bag I is chosen F,:Bag Ill is chosen Two balls drawn are of colour blue and red Asthre are total ofS haps, herein, P(E,)=P(E,)=P(E,)=2 event has already asc en P(E) = “SL eons a mi [ln bag I there are total 8 balls out of which 2are blue and 3 are red] By Law of Total Probability, we have Pay P(E,)P(EE,)+ P(E, )P(BE, )+P(E,)P(EE,) a8 1890 2.5 [Baye’s Theorem] Raye’s Theorem: Het $ be the sample space. Let Fj, Pyonwol', be mutilly exclusive and exhausive evens associated with random experiment (Clearly, Es are ‘ain number) fori 1.2.40 Proof: AS E's = 1.2, S* EGE, UE i) are italy exclusive and exhaustive events, thcrefore, by definition UR, and EAE, #2 fori ej Also B=f.evS [S is sample space and Es any event] SEEn|[f,vev——vF] Be(EF,JULE NE, JU O(ENE,) 2 P(E) -PL(ENE, JEN E JU EOE, )) 2 P(E)-P(ENE,) + PEE, Jo ——-PEOE,)weer P(E) [From (] #= Leon att Examples 30. paenky-r(eyef (7) [Muti ) ili on theorem on probability] [Multiplication theorera on probability) te,el } intwn K company has two plants to manufacture scooters. Plant | manufactures 70% ofthe scooters and Plant Il manu factures 30%. AtPlant 1, BO%of the scooters are rated as of standard quality and at Plant 11.90% of Aare rated as of standard quality. A scooter is chosen at random and is found to be of standard guity. What is the Probability that it has come from Plant f? Solu Consider the following events E,: Plant | is chosen 1, : Plant ‘Standard quality of scooter is chosen a0) P(E is chosen Now wwe have to find the probability that ifthe scooter chosen is of standart quality, then it has come from plant I Required probability: rene) wn 31, 1H 1995, there wil be thece candidates for the position of \- are in the proportion 4:2:3 respectively, tion in the college is 03. The probability of Band P, do probati Solution: Consider the following events 1: Principal Ris selected Principal Fis selected 1: Principal P, is selected 1! Coneducation i the college is introduced m= 3 Pdf ty that principal P, introduces co-education in the coll woseg i jeorng vet pong “Tye 39 0" "10 wo pal - P,P, and, lege? 8 too, $6 s 100. he chances of their selection The probability that if principal P, is selected, will introduce co-educae 1g the same thing are 0.5 and 0.8. What is theP-36 B.C.A. Mathomatics (Second Semester) We have to find the probability that principal P, introduces co-education in the college? i g, - Required probability ~p( 2) = wired rotaiiy (72) Speman sates 24, (2q10 as 7 23 9*10*9*10%9"i0 90°90 90 a re he re ree emer Solution: aa the following events + Selected boltis manufactured by machine A Jeeted bolt is manufactured by machine B = E,: Selected bolt is manufactured by machine C Defective bolt is drawn 2) Now P (given that bolt is defective, it is manufactured by machine A) rene ) Free rete) 235 7 100" 100 2, 5,35, 4 , 0. 100" 100 * 100* 100 * 100 reve) 7 weeae(E Jerenr(E)-rea(E) a a ws reor() sia o()-—— MMe) reed Jerear( 402 = 100" 100 80 _ 16 25 3 35 4 40, 2 W345 7 G5 100" 100 * 100100 * 100” Too = Similarly P| Since P| |{ chaptor-2_ | Condttonal Probabity and Baye's Theorem ps3 33. Hfamachine is correctly setup, it will produce 90% of acceptable items. IFitis incorrectly sct up, it will produce 30% of acceptable items. Past experience shows that 40% of the set-ups are correctly done. Ifafler a certain set- up, first item produced is acceptable, what is the probability that the machine is correctly set up? Solution: ‘Consider the following events E,: Set up was correct E,: Set up was wrong E,: lem is acceptable Now, P(E,)= 05 P(E) = x P (Ifset upis correc, items are accepted) = 159 30 =P (if setup is wrong, items are rejected) = Fa We have to find the probability if items produced is accepted, then set up of machine was correct. ren) -- - rene Jere) ae 100* 100 a Ina tes, an examinee elher guesses or cOPeK or knows ihe answer to a multiple choice question with four probability that his answer is corect, given that he copied iti 1/8. Find the probability that he knew the answer to the question, given that he correctly answered it Solution: _ - a Consider the following events E,: Examine guesses the answer E, : Examince copies the answer E,: Examinee knows the answer Et Answer is right Now, 1 F(E,)=2 = P(E)=1-(P(E)+P(E,)) a(h ©) = togusshe a ures ofon B.C.A. Mathematics (Second Semester) es ST 38 Aman isknown to speak tth3 out of times He hrowsa die and reports that tsa six. Find the probabil ity that isaetally asi, Solution: Consider he ftlowing evens By8ix ix does not occur = Man reports the number to be six t 1s Myo dsr(e,)arnbe$ = P(man does not speak the tuth}= 14349) = 1 Now = P (there is actually asi) « P (Given that man reports the number tobe 6, oeurs oa dic) reese ) + 6 of © a pce, Wy oneprene) 7 26. Attenapcol Sto im er pe. ct edad Sicedtae ste malar cratic Solution: E,: missing card is of heart ~ E, : missing card is of diamonds eae See es =P(E,)=P(6,)= "(6)" Bat Now P(E, Jere nn ihc 1f E)-parmising tisha vie te csfon einin te cards of diamond, droning 2 bear ears om ening) PtmissingChapter-2_| Conditional Probability and Bayo’s Theorem P-39 =P (1F2 heart cards are drawn from rem: reese # Required proba f P(e,)P SisuC enc esmecieal -a% 3c, 4% ste, 4c, "Gy 66 PEACH CAC, 78478466478 300 50 37, ‘There are three coins. One is two headed coin, another is a biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the time and probability that it was the two headed coin? ion: - Consider the following events a - E, : two headed coin is selected E, : biased coin is selected + unbiased coin is selected ¢ getting head on the coin Clearly, P(E; avo of ; [tiven itis two headed coin, then probability of getting heads is 1] iven itis unbiased coin, then probability of getting heads is 172] ren(E) “ren (E}reo(E) renee planata2 atate on * 38. A letter is known to have come either from LONDON or from CLIFTON. On the envelope last two consecutive letters ON" are visible. What is the probability that the letter has come from CLIFTON? Solutio Consider the following events E, : letter comes from LONDON E, : letter comes from CLIFTON hwo consecutive letters ‘ON’ are visible Now P(E,)=P( Now, if event E, has occurred, i. letter has come trom LONDON. In LONDON, total there are 6 letters and "ON' occurs twice. Considering ON’ as one letter, letter ‘ON’ ean be taken in $ ways. [As the letter come either from LONDON or from CLIFTON]1 P40 B.C.A. Mathematics (Second Semester) Also, if event E, has occured, ie, ler has come from CLIFTON. In CLIFTON, total there are 7 letters, ‘Considering (ON as one leer, leterON canbe taken in 6 ways. (é)-t Now; Required probability = rf: : it 1 g2 2 LS 7 weft) z E) 12,11 1,1 ef Jan reebad Ly (}rew(E) Pere fa 29+ Thereare wo bogs AandD. A contin whit and black als and B contains 2 whiteand bask ball. One ofthe two bagsis selected at random an twobalsaredravmare white andthe probability that the bagA Was used to draw the ballsis 67. Find the value of Solution: Cons the following events Bag Ais selected Ey Bag Bis drawn Ball selected is white in colour Now P(E,)=P( 75. mene seta 28a Also (E 1 df, z wee prex(2) [By Baye's Theorem] 1, °C, i Pitare “ 7h 7 c 1 rar 4 C41 S$. P(P!) 6 pp 7 pp) 7 ~ pr apra i §(0"~P42)=70'~7p 6p? ~6p+12 = 7p? 7p ; pt-p- = p'~4pi3p-120 = p(p-4)+3(p~4)-0= p=-3 4 Neglect p=-3 Required value=4 Exercise Each ofthe three identical jewellery boxes has 2 drawers. Ineach draver ofthe first box, theresa gold wateh. In cach drawer of the second box, there isa silver watch. In one drawer ofthe third box, there is a gold watch in the other drawer, there is a silver watch. If we select a box at random, open one ofthe drawers and find it to Contain a silver watch, what is the probability tht the other drawer has gold watch, ‘A manufacturer has available 3 machine operators. The fist and the most experienced operator A, produces defective items only 1% of the time, whereas the other two operators B and C have defective ratios of 5% and 7% espe The experienced operator ison the job 50% of the time; B works 30% of time and C works 20%. The defective item is produced. What is the probability that it was produced by operator A? [Ans. 0.147] seniorChapter-2 | Conditional Probability and Baye's Theorem P-41 10. ne 2 13. 14, 15. ‘A bag contains five white and seven black balls and another bag contains three white and six black balls. Two balls are transferred at random from the Trst bag to the second and then a ball is drawn from the second. If the ball drawn from the second happens to be white, find the probability that one white and one black ball were trans- ferred [Ans. 140/253] Aletter is known to have come either from TATANAGAAR or CALCUTTA. On the envelope, first two consecu- tive letters "TA’ are visible. What i the probability that the letter has eome from (i) Caleutta (i) Tatanagar? [Ans. 4711, 7711] Suppose a girl throws a dice. I'she gets a 5 or 6, she tosses a coin three times and notes the number of heads. If she gets a 1, 2, 3 oF 4, she tosses a coin once and notes whether a head or a tail is obtained. If she obtains exactly ‘one head, what is the probability that she throws a 1, 2.3 or 4 with the die? [Ans. 8/11] “Two groups are competing forthe positions ofthe Board of Directors of a Corporation. The probabil first and the second group will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. Further, ifthe first group wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0:7 and the corresponding probability is 0.3, if the second group wins. Find the probability that the new product introduced was by the second group. [Ans. 2/9] jes that the An insurance company insured 2000 scooters and 3000 motorcycles. The probability of an accident involving a scooter is 0,01 and that of a motorcycle is 0.02. An insured vehicle met with an aceident. Find the probability that the accident vehicle was motoreyele. [Ans. 3/4] ‘A speaks the truth 8 time’ aut of 10 times. A dice is tssed; he reports that it was 5. What is the probability that it was actually 5? [Ans. 4/9] ‘Suppose 5 men out of 100 and 25 women out of 1000 are good orators. An orator is chosen at random. Find the probability that male person is selected. Assume that there are equal number of menand women. [Ans. 2/3] An urn contains 10 white and 3 black balls, whi {drawn from the first urn and put into the second urn and a ball is drawn from the latter. What itis a white ball? 2 : [Ans. 59/130] _Inaclass, 5% of the boys and 10% of girls have an IQ of more than 150. In this class 60% of the students are boys. Ifa student is selected at random and found to have an 1Q of more than 150, find the probability that student is a boy. [Ans. 3/7] ‘An urn contains ‘a’ white and by’ black balls. Another contains’¢’ white and 'd' black balls, One ball is transferred from the first urn into the second urn and then a ball is drawn from the latter. What is the probability that it will be all? on actbe+a fans. Ce ayerd+iy! ‘An advertising agency is going to decide which of three advertising methods to use fora certain product. The probability that they will choose TV is 0.60 and the probability that they will choose newspaper is 0.25. The probabilities of achieving a high coverage value with the three methods are 0,80, 0,50 and 0.0 respectively. After making the choice, the agency determines that they did, in fact achieve a high coverage ratio, Given this informa- tion, what is the probability thatthe agency choose to Newspaper? TAns. 12/133] ‘A company estimates that the probability of'a person buying its product after seeing the advertisement is 0:7 and that of buying the product without seeing the advertisement i 0.3%. 160% of the persons have come across the advertisement, what is the probability that a person who buys the product has not came across the advertisement? Ans. 2/9] ‘A card from a pack of 52 cardsis lst. From the remaining cards of the pack, 2 cards are drawn and are found to ‘be of hearts. Find the probability of the missing eard to be of elub. Tans. 11/50)