In a bolt factory, 25% of the bolts are produced by machine A, 35% are produced
by machine B, and the remaining 40% are produced by machine C. Of their outputs,
2%, 4% and 5% respectively are defective bolts. If a bolt is selected at random and
found to be defective, what is the probability that it came from machine A?

A prior probabilities are P (A) = 0.25, P(B) = 0.35 and P (C) = 0.40

Let E represents the event that a bolt is defective

Then the conditional probabilities are

P(E/A) = 0.02, P(E/B) = 0.04 and P(E/C) = 0.05
Now P(A/E) is the posteriori probability that the selected defective bolt came from
machine A. by using Bayes’ theorem, we get