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BY ADEGBOLA THOMAS AND ADEOLA AKINDELE ever, the revenue projections were not realistic because
of Covid-19, which triggered a sudden drop in demand
The first case of Covid-19 in Nigeria was recorded in
for oil and consequently a plunge in global oil prices.
Lagos State on February 28, 2020, and the Federal Gov-
The Federal Executive Council, therefore, approved the
ernment of Nigeria subsequently directed a complete
review of the 2020 budget to 10.81 trillion Nigerian
lockdown of Lagos and Abuja, the nation’s economic
naira ($28.4 billion), from the original approved amount
and political capitals respectively, for 28 days, in a bid
of 10.58 trillion naira.
to curtail the spread of the virus. The lockdown in Nige-
Despite the revision, Nigeria’s economy is still in a
ria, while critical for disease containment, impacted the
delicate balance, as there are no clear indications that
economic and social structures of the country and led to
the country will be able to meet its revenue targets.
demand and supply disruptions. Some businesses were
Based on the 2020 first quarter report of the Federal In-
faced with going concern issues and had to employ
land Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Medium-Term Ex-
varying degrees of cost-cutting measures for survival.
penditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy (MTEF/FSP)
A United Nations Development Program report esti-
report released by the Federal Ministry of Finance, Bud-
mates that about 3.84 million persons in Nigeria have
get and National Planning, Nigeria may only be able to
experienced direct job loss with a further projection of
achieve about 50% of its revenue targets in 2020.
13 million persons who may have experienced collat-
As if the situation is not overwhelming enough, the
eral damage (Brief 3 | Potential Impact of Lockdown
first quarter MTEF/FSP report noted that the bulk of the
Policies on Poverty and Well-Being: A brief prepared by
revenue generated was used to meet debt service obli-
UNDP Nigeria on behalf of the UN System in Nigeria).
gations as the country’s debt service payments as a per-
As at October 30, 2020, there had been 62,521 con-
centage of revenue rose to 99% in the quarter.
firmed cases with over 1,141 deaths and 58,249 dis-
charged patients (Covid-19 Situation Report 114: Data
as reported and accurate by NCDC as at October 30, What Should We Expect Post
2020). The government and businesses now expect the Covid-19?
economy, which recently recovered from a 2016 reces-
sion, to shrink further this year. Given the above challenges, it is only a matter of time
Nigeria’s 2020 budgeted revenue was largely based before revenue agencies resort to ingenious means of
on crude oil production volume of 2.18 million barrels shoring up government revenue in the coming months.
per day with a price benchmark of $57 per barrel. How- However, revenue agencies and tax authorities will
need to proceed with caution in view of the saying that
no nation can ever tax itself into prosperity.
Adegbola Thomas is a Manager and Adeola Therefore, whilst the Nigerian government will be
Akindele is an Experienced Staff Analyst, Tax, bogged down with the question of how to generate
Regulatory and People Services Division, with enough revenue to finance the revised budget, the gov-
KPMG in Nigeria. ernment should also be concerned with measures that
can stimulate business and economic activities.
cluding contactless cash service providers, to respec- shortest possible time, and taxpayers can have a degree
tively pay and collect tax liabilities. In fact, digital mi- of certainty in their decision-making process.
gration of tax payments fulfills the canon of taxation as
it relates to convenience and economy; with an intrinsic
capacity to significantly limit tax evasion and fraud. Looking Ahead
One easy way of collecting taxes is the integration of
tax collection platforms with different payment chan- It is commendable that the Federal Government of
nels. This is particularly important for indirect taxes, Nigeria, the CBN and the tax authorities continue to roll
such as VAT, given that the taxes occur simultaneously out fiscal stimulus packages to reduce the burden on
as the transaction is conducted. If the tax collection companies. It is our hope that more palliatives will be
platform is integrated into the transaction payment introduced in these trying times.
channels, the taxes are automatically collected and However, the global forecast is that the world
transferred into the relevant tax account of the revenue economy will plunge into a recession, post-Covid-19.
authorities. This will no doubt increase government rev- Some businesses will fold, while others will thrive and
enue from tax while also expanding the tax base of the grow from the opportunities that Covid-19 presents.
country. Beyond the immediate reactions highlighted above,
The Covid-19 crisis has caused an increase in press companies must look ahead, think and act strategically
releases from regulators and tax authorities, and it is in the context of the emerging new normal. Businesses
expected that the post Covid-19 era will usher in more need to build strategic risk management capabilities to
circulars, policy documents and updates to existing tax inform future strategy and better prepare them for the
and regulatory processes. Tax and regulatory updates world as we now know it.
are welcome developments, although it may be difficult
to keep track of them unless they are compiled into a This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion
single working document. It is also possible that tax- of The Bureau of National Affairs, Inc. or its owners.
payers and other stakeholders may not agree with some
of the contents of circulars and press releases, as they Adegbola Thomas is a Manager and Adeola Akindele
typically contain the FIRS’ opinions on contentious is- is an Experienced Staff Analyst, Tax, Regulatory and
sues in tax law. People Services Division, with KPMG in Nigeria.
It is, therefore, important that the process of arbitra- The authors may be contacted at: adegbola.thomas@
tion is timely so that clarity can be obtained within the ng.kpmg.com; adeola.akindele@ng.kpmg.com