STEP 1: IDENTIFY CONTEXT AND ANALYSIS PARAMETERS

1. General Information AREA of Analysis

Ibb governorate - West area
Dates of Analysis
[Write the dates of the analysis – e.g. 12-20 Feb 2018] January - May 2022
2. Current Analysis Season of CURRENT analysis
[Write the season of the current analysis – e.g. peak acute malnutrition season; if seasonality is not applicable, January - May 2022
write not applicable]
Validity of current analysis
[Write the validity of the analysis – e.g. Jan 2017 - May 2018] Oct 2021 - Sept. 2022
3. Projection Analysis Season of PROJECTION analysis 1
[Write the season of the current analysis – e.g. low acute malnutrition season; if seasonality is not applicable, June - Sept. 2022
write not applicable]
Validity of projection 1
[Write the validity of the analysis – e.g. June - Sept 2018] June - Sept. 2022
Season of PROJECTION analysis 2
[Write the season of the current analysis – e.g. low acute malnutrition season; if seasonality is not applicable,
write not applicable]
Validity of projection 2
[Write the validity of the analysis – e.g. Oct - Dec 2018]
Description of the analysis area and population:
[Describe the general characteristics of the area and the population (e.g. aid or semi-arid area), usual characteristics of the seasons (e.g. lean season is characterised by rainy season usually
results in flooding; harvest-post harvest typically is dry, etc.); include information on the characteristics of the population in the area (e.g. pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, etc.); mention if there
are population sub-groups of interest (e.g. IDPS living with host population/camps, refugee influx, outmigration, etc.); include total and under 5 population in the area]
The Governorate is located in the middle part of Yemen. With an area of 5,552 sq. km, and divided into 20 districts,The governorate has a mild climate throughout the year with heavy rains
especially in the summer. Ecologically, Ibb is a mountainous governorate in where 11 districts are classified as temperate highlands and 9 districts dry highlands based on CSO Yemen
ecological division. The total estimated population are 3,118,000 in where the total U5 represents 561,240 (CSO - 2022 projections), ranked as the third largest governorate in population
size. 
Ibb governorate is a host-community for IDPs mostly coming from three neighboring governorates (Taiz, Ad Dali' and Hudeidah). Total IDPs is 244,048 which represents 8% of total population
in which the largest number is concentrated in Dh Sufal 20%, Mashanah 19% and Dhehar 20% districts. (ESCHAMSH Data)
Livelihoods are livestock sales, labour, crop sales, firewood sales, remittances and qat sales. Sources of food own crop production are wheat, sorghum, maize; for the poor, there is high
dependency on market purchase. Income comes from selling qat, coffee and sorghum for the better off and labour, firewood and livestock selling for the poor.
The casual labrary is the most important economic activity in the governorate 57%, where 38.4% of casual labor in non agriculture and 15.5% are engaged in the agriculture. The main crops
produced in the governorate are cereals, vegetables, pulses, fruits and cash crops, and qat which continues to expand at the expense of other crops. Other economic activities in the
governorate include own products and remittances. 
The level of poverty in Ibb is 30.1%, around 80 - 92% of households in Ibb governorate are losing - partially or fully - their income sources during the current crisis, (SMART Survey 2019).
Hazards: crop failure, drought, livestock disease, crop diseases and frost. There is high population density, all households rely heavily on market purchase to obtain food.
For education level, 35.7% of caretakers in the three zones are illiterate, while those of basic education and beyond are only 11% in the three zones (FSLA 2021).
Health services are provided by 323 health facilities in the whole Governorate (16 hospitals, 118 health centres and 189 health units). Among those HF, 305 deliver EPI services, 283 deliver
IMCI services and 323 deliver CMAM services ), and 223 deliver reproductive health services. The national nutrition information system has shown that number of malnurished children
admitted in the

The rate of using improved drinking water sources is 74.7 % in Ibb city zone, 72.7% in east Ibb, and 64.9% in west Ibb; thus, there is still one out of three households uses unimproved sources
in the whole governorate. Using of improved latrine facilities is 87.1% in Ibb city, while only 41.6 in east zone and 42.2% in west zone while the defecation in open is still a practice of 8% of
households, and nearly one out of two household caretakers were found practicing hand-washing with water and soup after toilet and before meals in the three zones. (SMART survey 2021).

As the war is not taken place in Ibb, the governorate is indirectly affected by the crisis. The deterioration of national economy, losing of income sources and livelihood, the inflation due to
continuous depreciation of local currency and the increase of food and fuel prices are all driven to poor affordability and accessibility resulting in an accepted food quantity and quality,
essential health services and education.
District IDPs
Total
CU2 CU5 Population

Aldihar 7.2 18.1 234,673 20%

Almashana 8.8 22.1 20%

h 154,059
 STEP 2: POPULATE THE EVIDENCE REPOSITORY

Document Reference Remarks and raw data evidence

code Name of report Source of report Data collection period Date of publication [Indicate representativeness, quality, etc.; status of the report
[Extend the [Write the exact name of the [Write the name(s) of agency(ies) [Write the dates during [Write the date in which such as preliminary; if nothing to highlight, leave it blank]
table as report] that published the report] which the data was the report was
needed] collected] published]

1 SMART Results North_2021 UNICEF & MoPHP & CSO Dec. 2021 Preliminary Report
2 FSLA MUAC 2021 CSO, WFP, SCHEMCHA, MoA August - Sept. 2021
3 FSLA Contributing Factors CSO, WFP, SCHEMCHA, MoA August - Sept. 2021 Preliminary Report
4 CMAM programme 2021 Ibb GHO January - Dec. 2021
5 MUAC Screening 2021 Ibb GHO Jul-21
6 NSS survielence system 2021 Ibb GHO Jan - Dec. 2021 HF based Surveilence
7 EPI program 2021 Ibb GHO Jan - Dec. 2021
8 EPI Compaign May 2019 MoPHP May-19
9 EPI Compaign Feb 2021 MoPHP Feb-21 Polio Compaign
Malaria Programme 2013 - MoPHP & WHO 2013 - 2021
10 2021
http://th.nmcpye.org/
Morbidity_Trends 2019 and MoPHP 2019 - 2020
14 2020_ Governorate
15 SMART Survey for 2019 - Ibb MoPHP, UNICEF, Ibb GHO Dec 2018 - Jan 2019 Mar-19
16 SMART Survey 2017 - Ibb MoPHP, UNICEF, Ibb GHO 25 Mar - 6 April 2017 Jun-17
17 FSLA 2020 CSO, WFP, SCHEMCHA, MoA Jul-20 Sept. 2020 Final results
18 IPC AFI 2021 FAO, SCHEMCHA, MoPHP, CSO,January - Feb. 2021 Preliminary phase results
IPC AFI 2020 FAO, WFP, UNICEF, SCHEMCHA, Nov. - Dec. 2020
19 CSO
20 IPC AFI 2018 FAO, WFP, UNICEF, CSO Dec. 2018
21 BSFP Program data 2021 Nutrition Cluster Jan - Dec. 2021
EDEWs 2021 - WHO WHO, MoPHP 2021 https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzcxYmFlMTgtYWMwZS00NTU5LTk1Nj

22
23 CMAM programme 2020 Ibb GHO January - Dec. 2021
24 CMAM programme 2019 Ibb GHO January - Dec. 2021
HDS 2013 CSO, MoPHP 14 Sept. - 23 Nov. 2013 Jul-15
25 https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/FR296/FR296.pdf
26 EDEWs 2020 - WHO WHO, MoPHP 2020
…
Reiability

R2
R1+
R1+
R1+
R1+
R1+
R1+
X
R1+

R1-
R1-
R1-
R1+

R1-
R1-
R1+

R1+
R1-
R1-

R1-
X
 STEP 3: ANALYSE EVIDENCE (CURRENT ANALYSIS)
STEP 3A: ANALYSE EVIDENCE ON OUTCOMES

Prevalence of GAM based on WHZ (among children 6-59 months) Trend of GAM based on SMART survey
Include historical data as relevant to support DC, R
Indicator Ibb City Al WHZ 2017 2019 2021
Zone Al Dhihar
Mashannah
GAM based on WHZ from representative surveys 1R2 4.3 GAM 3.9 6.8 4.3
GAM based on WHZ from reanalysed survey data from higher NA Phase 1 2 1
admin level
GAM based on WHZ from sentinel site NA MUAC 4.2 6.2 1.9
GAM based on WHZ from historical data (surveys representative DC15, 6.8 Phase 1 to 2 2 to 3 1 to 2
at the unit of analysis) SMART 2019 R1-
GAM based on WHZ from historical data (surveys representative DC16,R1 3.9
at the unit of analysis) SMART 2017 -
GAM based on WHZ from representative surveys from similar NA
areas
IPC AMN Phase
[Indicate the Phase, in number (between 1 and 5). Refer to IPC 1
AMN Reference Table for details] 2021
Technical Remarks The evidence used in phase clasification is GAM
[Indicate issues with data quality, representativeness, etc., if any; based on WHZ from representative current GAM by MUAC based on FSLA
otherwise, leave it blank] SMART survey(2021

4.1
Prevalence of GAM based on MUAC (among children 6-59 months)

3.1
Indicator DC, R Ibb City Al
Zone Mashannah Al Dhihar

GAM based on MUAC from representative surveys 1R2 1.9

GAM based on MUAC from FSLA surveys 2021 2R1+ 4.1 6.7 1.5 FSLA 2020 2021
GAM based on MUAC from FSLA surveys 2020 17R1- 3.1 3.8 2.4 MUAC 3.1 4.1
GAM based on MUAC from sentinel sites NA Phase 1 to 2 1 to 2
GAM based on MUAC from screening NA
2020 2021
 2020 2021
IPC AMN Phase
[Indicate the Phase, in number (between 1 and 5). Refer to IPC
AMN Reference Table for details] 1-2

Technical Remarks this zone hosted IDPs which represent about

[Indicate issues with data quality, representativeness, etc., if any; 20% of it is population, so the team suspect the
otherwise, leave it blank] GAM is underestimated because the IDPs in
camp not included in SMART survey.
FSLA
4.1

2021
2021
 STEP 3: ANALYSE EVIDENCE (CURRENT ANALYSIS)
Step 3B: Analyse evidence on contributing factors and other issues

FOOD CONSUMPTION
Indicator DC, R Ibb City
Zone Al Al Dhihar
Mashannah

Minimum Dietary Diversity (MDD) DC1 42.2

Minimum Meal Frequency (MMF) DC1 52.9
Minimum Acceptable Diet (MAD) DC1 13.2
Minimum Dietary Diversity – Women (MDD-W) NA
How is the current level of dietary intake among children as There is some improvment in
compared to historical trends? dietary intake indicators based on
[From the same period of current analysis in the past; include historical data but the MAD still
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable] very low

Briefly explain how likely is the current level of food Minimum acceptable diet for
consumption among children affecting acute malnutrition in the younger children less than 2 years
area of analysis: is around 10% which has direct
link to increase prevalence of
Technical remarks
[Indicate issues with data quality, representativeness, etc., if any;
otherwise, leave blank]

DISEASES (PREVALENCE, TRENDS, AND/OR OUTBREAKS)

Indicator DC, R Ibb City

Zone Al
Al Dhihar
Mashannah

Diarrhoea DC1 40.6

Dysentery NA
Malaria/fever DC1 65.3
Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) DC1 54
HIV/AIDS NA
Cholera or Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD)
Measles DC7 43 40 3
Measles 2020 6 4 2
How is the current level of diseases as compared to historical
trend?
[From the same period of current analysis in the past; include
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable]
Briefly explain how is the current level of diseases affecting acute
malnutrition in the area:
Technical remarks
[Indicate issues with data quality, representativeness, etc., if any;
otherwise, leave blank]

FOOD DIMENSIONS
 Indicator DC, R Ibb City
Zone Al Al Dhihar
Mashannah

IPC AFI Phase DC18

[Write IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase for the area of analysis] R1+ 3 3 3

IPC AFI Phase 2020 DC19,

[Write IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase for the area of analysis] R1- 3 3

How is the current food dimentions as compared to historical Based on historical data, there is
trend? detrioration in acute food insecurity
[From the same period of current analysis in the past; include phase but there is consoldation of
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable] population in phase 3 from 30% in 2020
to 60 % in 2021 in Ibb city

Briefly explain how the overall food dimentions is likely to affect

acute malnutrition in your area of analysis:
Technical remarks
[Indicate percentage of population in the IPC/CH Phase, specify if
IPC/CH unit of analysis are different, or include any other
relevant information to interpret the acute food insecurity
situation]

CARING AND FEEDING PRACTICES

Indicator DC, R Ibb City
Zone Al Al Dhihar
Mashannah

Exclusive breastfeeding under 6 months DC1, 11.4

Continued breastfeeding at 1 year DC1, 64.9
Continued breastfeeding at 2 years DC1, 18.6
Introduction of solid, semi-solid or soft foods NA
Bottle feeding under among aged below 2 years DC1, 61.7
How are the current feeding and caring practices as compared to There is no historical data for Ibb city
historical trend data? zone because it is a new zone separated
[from the same period of current analysis in the past; include from east zone, and there is no data at
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable] district level

Briefly explain how the overall caring and feeding practices is we notice low level of EBF. which
likely to affect acute malnutrition in your area of analysis: strongly affecting on immune system of
children, and susptability for infection.
Another risk factor is the prevelance of
bottle feeding excess 60% which make
the children more susptablie for
infection with detrioration of CU5
nutritional status.

Technical remarks The data taken from representative

[Indicate issues with data quality, representativeness, etc., if any; current SMART survey 2021.
otherwise, leave blank]

HEALTH SERVICES & HEALTH ENVIRONMENT

Indicator DC, R Ibb City
Zone Al
Al Dhihar
Mashannah
Routine measles vaccination coverage DC7 84
Routine polio vaccination coverage DC7 81
Routine vitamin A supplementation coverage DC7
55
Campaign measles vaccination coverage (2019) DC8
102
Campaign polio vaccination coverage(2021) DC9
86
Campaign vitamin A supplementation coverage NA
Measles vaccination coverage from surveys DC1 90.5
Polio vaccination coverage from surveys DC1 96.2
Vitamin A supplementation coverage from surveys DC1 61.4
Coverage of all basic vaccinations from surveys
Skilled attendant at delivery
Health seeking behaviour
Coverage of outreach programmes – (SAM )-2021
Coverage of outreach programmes (MAM)-2021
Access to a sufficient quantity of water DC1 87.6
Access to improved sanitation facilities DC1 87.1
Access to an improved source of drinking water DC1 74.7
Practice of handwashing after toilet by household caregiver DC1
N (%) 65
Practice of handwashing before meal by household care givers DC1
N (%) 53.5
How are the current health services and health environment data
as compared to historical trends?
[From the same period of current analysis in the past; include
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable]

Briefly explain how the overall health services and health

environment is likely to affect acute malnutrition in your area of
analysis:
Technical remarks
[Indicate issues with data quality, representativeness, etc., if any;
otherwise, leave blank]

BASIC CAUSES (OPTIONAIL)

Indicator DC, R Ibb City
Zone Al
Mashannah Al Dhihar

Human capital
Physical capital
Financial capital
Natural capital
Social capital
Policies, Institutions and Processes (PIPs)
Usual/Normal Shocks The Conflict and continued increased
prices have become a usual shock in the
area in addition to IDPs and the
continued depreciation of YR currency
which is a big concern too.

Unusual shocks The conflect

OTHER OUTCOMES
Indicator DC, R Ibb City
Zone Al
Mashannah Al Dhihar

Anaemia among children 6-59 months DC6 19%

Anaemia among pregnant women NA
Anaemia among non-pregnant women NA
Programme admission trends SAM 2021 DC4 2192
Programme admission trends MAM 2021 DC4 3363
Programme admission trends GAM 2021 DC4 5555
Programme admission trends GAM 2020 DC4 6573
Vitamin A deficiency among pre-school children (6 – 71 months) NA

Vitamin A deficiency among non-pregnant women (15 – 49 years) NA

Low birth weight NA

Fertility rate 4.8
Crude Death Rate (CDR) – excluding trauma related deaths DC1 0.17 (0.08-
0.35)
Under Five Death Rate (U5DR) – excluding trauma related deaths DC1 0.23 (0.06-
0.97)
SAM based on WHZ DC1 2 (0.4)
SAM based on MUAC DC1 2 (0.4)
Stunting DC1 34.4
Prevalence of pregnant malnutrition DC1 21.2
Prevalence of lactating malnutrition DC1 17.6
Prevalence of maternal malnutrition DC1 19
Comment
HUMANITARIAN AND SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAMMES
Programme DC, R Ibb City
Zone Al Al Dhihar
Mashannah

Blanket supplementary feeding programme coverage DC21 0% 0 0

Micronutrient supplementation programme coverage DC4 0%
Micronutrient supplementation programme coverage 2020 DC19 11% 2%
Cash assistance programme coverage
Comment There is no BSFP coverage in Ibb city
zone which may contributed in
 Food consumption trend
2017 2019 2021

MDD 34 30.1 42.2

MFF 47.9 44.5 52.9
MAD 4.3 9.6 13.2

Disease trend by year

2017 2019 2021

Diarrhoea 43.8 47.2 40.6

Acute
Respiratory
Infection (ARI) 45.2 63.5 54

Malaria/fever
50.2 64.8 65.3

Measles
2020 2021
43

Measles 6 43
6

2020 2021
 Distribution of population in IPC AFI Classification 2021

Almashanah phase1 phase2 phase3 phase4 phase5

2020 35% 35% 20% 10% 0

2021 10% 25% 50% 15% 0

Aldihar phase1 phase2 phase3 phase4 phase5

2020 30% 35% 20% 15% 0

2021 10% 30% 45% 15% 0

2019 2021 T r e n d o f c a r in g a n d fe e d in g p r a c ti c e
Exclusive 26.3% 11.4%
2019 2021
81%

BF under 1
year 81% 65%
65%
26.3%

BF under 2 22% 18.6%

18.6%

year
22%
11.4%

Ex clu s ive BF u n d e r 1 ye ar BF u n d e r 2 ye ar
 Vaccination coverage in based on survey
2017 2019 2021
Vitamin A 88.2 57.9 61.4
coverage
Polio 84 85.2 96.2
coverage
Measles 80.1 84.9 90.5
coverage
District CU2 CU5 Total Population IDPs
Aldihar 7.2 18.1 234,673 20%
8.8 22.1 20%
Almashanah 154,059

Trend of PLW acute malnutrition

21.2
PLW 2017 2019 2021
17.6
Pregnant 6.2 10.6 21.2
15
Lactating 3.4 15 17.6
Maternal 9.9 4.2 19 10.6 9.9

6.2
3.4 4.2

Pregnant Lactating Matern

2017 2019 2021

43

21
e
18.6%
22%

u n d e r 2 ye ar
te malnutrition

19
17.6

9.9

4.2

g Maternal

2021
 STEP 4: DETERMINE PHASE CLASSIFICATION AND POPULATION
ESTIMATES
Ibb City
Zone Al Al Dhihar
Mashannah
Indicator
Evidence Used for Classification: 2
[GAM based on WHZ=1; GAM based on MUAC=2]
Evidence Reliability: R2
[Reliable = R2; IPC Somewhat reliable = R1+/R1-]
How is the current Acute Malnutrition level compared to There is no historical data for Ibb
historical trends for the same period? city zone because it is a new zone
[From the same period of current analysis in the past; include separated from east zone, and
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable] there is no data at district level

Phase: 1
[Indicate the Phase number]
Evidence Level: ***
[Acceptable=*, Medium=**, or High=***]
Justification: Narrative must be provided when an area is classified
based on GAM based on MUAC - follow the IPC Malnutrition
Analytical Framework and assess current levels and historical trends
of contributing factors (e.g. food intake, diseases, healthcare, etc.)
and acute malnutrition outcomes (e.g. past GAM based on
WHZ/MUAC data).
Trend of GAM based on SMART survey
WHZ 2017 2019 2021

GAM 3.9 6.8 4.3

Phase 1 2 1

MUAC 4.2 6.2 1.9

Phase 1 to 2 2 to 3 1 to 2
 STEP 5: IDENTIFY KEY DRIVERS & LIMITING FACTO

Ibb City Al
Major contributing factor Zone Mashannah
Minor contributing factor
Not a contributing factor
No data
Minimum Dietary Diversity (MDD)
Food Minimum Meal Frequency (MMF)
consumption Minimum Acceptable Diet (MAD)
Minimum Dietary Diversity – Women (MDD-W)
Diarrhoea
Dysentery
Malaria/fever
Diseases Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI)
HIV/AIDS
Cholera or Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD)
Measles
Food
dimensions Outcome of the IPC analysis
Exclusive breastfeeding under 6 months
Continued breastfeeding at 1 year
Caring and
feeding Continued breastfeeding at 2 years
practices Bottle feeding among age below 2 years
Introduction of solid, semi-solid or soft foods
Measles vaccination
Polio vaccination
Vitamin A supplementation
Skilled birth attendance
Health seeking behaviour
Health
services and Coverage of outreach programmes – CMAM programme coverage (SAM,
health MAM, or both)
environment Access to a sufficient quantity of water
Access to sanitation facilities
Access to an improved source of drinking water
Practice of handwashing after toilet by household caregiver
N (%) of handwashing before meal by household care givers
Practice
N (%)
Human capital
Physical capital
Financial capital
Natural capital
Basic causes
Social capital
Policies, Institutions and Processes
Usual/Normal Shocks
Basic causes

Recurrent Crises due to Unusual Shocks

Anaemia among children 6-59 months
Anaemia among pregnant women
Anaemia among non-pregnant women
Vitamin A deficiency among children 6-59 months
Low birth weight
Other issues Fertility rate
Prevalence of pregnant malnutrition
Prevalence of lactating malnutrition
Prevalence of maternal malnutrition
Blanket supplementary feeding programme coverage
Micronutrient supplementation programme coverage
IVERS & LIMITING FACTORS

Summary conclusions
[Explain how you determine if an indicator is a major/minot/not a contributing
factor]

Al Dhihar

the MAD is historically around 10%, so it is classified as major contributing factor

and MDD is 42% so it is classified as minot contributing factor

The burden of AWD,ARI, measles, and fever are high , so it is classified as major
contributing factors

The IPC AFI classification of targeted district in Ibb city zone was phase 3 so it is
classified as major contributing factor

All caring and feeding practice indicators historicaly low and indetrioration, so it is
classified as major contributing factors

The vit A vaccination coverage is 61% which is very low in comperation to

target(>90%) and historicaly indetrioration, so it is classified as major contributing
factors . While measles and polio vaccination classified as minor contributing
factor

Both usual and ununual shock classified as major contributing factors due to the
curren ecconomic collapse , fuel shortage, elevated food price and active conflect
in the neighboring governorates
Both usual and ununual shock classified as major contributing factors due to the
curren ecconomic collapse , fuel shortage, elevated food price and active conflect
in the neighboring governorates

There is clear detrioration in the prevelance of PLW acute manutrition based on

SMART survey 2017 to 2021) so it is classified as major contributiing factors
 STEP 6: DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS FOR FUTURE SHOCKS AND
ONGOING CONDITIONS

Projection 1
Seasonabily:
Based on revision of historical data, the peak of acute malnutrition riased on June, so we
suspect the situation of acute malnutrition in the projected period will be worse.
Heavy rains and floods are expected during the projection period that may impact roads
access which in turn affect market functioality, access to health facilities, etc)
Diseases:
Based on current burden of measles , AWD and historical data for the same period in
2021,We expect an increase in the incidence of measles and acute watery diarrhea cases
during the period June- Sep, the AWD mostly as a result of the heavy rains effects on
water sources contamination. This will increase the possibility of nutritional status
deterioration.
We suspect apearance of new mutation of COVID19 in the projected period as happen
with ongiog omicrone without prior warning which may affect on global supply chain and
increase price of food and essential livelhoods items which negatively impact on
nutritional status of CU5.

Food security:

Fuel shortage:
Fuel shortage and increased fuel prices in balck markets will have negative impact on
food prices and will affect the access to essential services like health, food and also the
factionality of HFs. This fuel crisis is expected to continue in the projection period and
thus continue to affect the nutritional status of the population in the area of study.
Distrubtion of Humanitarian Food Assistance:
Continouty of HFA cutting by 30% during the current period is likely to prevail during the
projection period affecting the food access and food consumption of the poor HHs
especialy around 25% of east Ibb houshold depend on NGOs acisstant.
The price of food increase during 2021 by 55%, so we suspect continouse elevation in the
price of food in the projected period which may affect of accessability of food, and this
will detriorate the nutritional status of acute malnutrition.
Confilect:
Unlise the war not taken place in east Ibb, but it suround Ibb which indirectily affect the
economic situation due to increase IDPs load

So, the compenation of sever shortage in fuel supply, continouse cut off HFA, inflation of
IDPs from ongiog conflect of neiboring areas and increase burden of disease especialy
 STEP 7: ANALYSE EVIDENCE (PROJECTION CLASSIFICATION)

FOOD CONSUMPTION
Indicator (specify if the indicaror is likely to (a) improve, (b) PROJECTION 1
deteriorate, or (3) remain similar in the projection period DC, R Ibb City Al Al Dhihar
Zone Mashannah
Minimum Dietary Diversity (MDD) DC1 3
Minimum Meal Frequency (MMF) DC1 3
Minimum Acceptable Diet (MAD) DC1 3
Minimum Dietary Diversity – Women (MDD-W)
How is the projected level of dietary intake as compared to
historical trends?
[From the same period of the projection analysis in the past; include
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable]

Narative explanation:
(Briefly explain why the sitation is likely to improve, deriorate, or
remain similar)

DISEASES (PREVALENCE, TRENDS, AND/OR OUTBREAKS)

Indicator (specify if the indicaror is likely to (a) improve, (b) PROJECTION 1
deteriorate, or (3) remain similar in the projection period DC, R Ibb City Al
Zone Al Dhihar
Mashannah
Diarrhoea DC22 b
Dysentery

Malaria/fever DC10 3

Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) 3

HIV/AIDS prevalence
Cholera or Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD)
Measles DC22 b
How is the projected level of diseases as compared to historical
trend?
[From the same period of the projection analysis in the past; include
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable]

Narative explanation:
(Briefly explain why the sitation is likely to improve, deriorate, or
remain similar)

FOOD DIMENSIONS
CURRENT PROJECTION 1
 Indicator (specify if the indicaror is likely to (a) improve, (b) DC, R Al
Ibb City Mashannah Al Dhihar
deteriorate, or (3) remain similar in the projection period DC18 b Zone
How is the projected food dimentions as compared to historical Based on IPC AFI 2021 assumtion, the projected
trend? period will be detriorated
[From the same period of the projection analysis in the past; include
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable]

Narative explanation: As per IPC AFI 2021 projection, which

(Briefly explain why the sitation is likely to improve, deriorate, or considered the currency depreciation, influx of
remain similar) IDPs,continous cutting of HFA, irrugularity of
income, and increase food price.

CARING AND FEEDING PRACTICES

CURRENT PROJECTION 1
Indicator (specify if the indicaror is likely to (a) improve, (b) DC, R Al
Ibb City Mashannah Al Dhihar
deteriorate, or (3) remain similar in the projection period DC1 b Zone
Exclusive breastfeeding under 6 months DC1 b
Continued breastfeeding at 1 year DC1 b
Continued breastfeeding at 2 years DC1 b
Bottle feeding under among aged below 2 years DC1 b
Introduction of solid, semi-solid or soft foods
How is the projected levels of feeding and caring practices as
compared to historical trend data?
[from the same period of the projection analysis in the past; include
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable]

Narative explanation:
(Briefly explain why the sitation is likely to improve, deriorate, or
remain similar)

HEALTH SERVICES & HEALTH ENVIRONMENT

CURRENT PROJECTION 1
Indicator (specify if the indicaror is likely to (a) improve, (b) DC, R Al
Ibb City Mashannah Al Dhihar
deteriorate, or (3) remain similar in the projection period Zone
3
Routine polio and measles vaccination coverage b
Routine vitamin A supplementation coverage 3
Campaign measles vaccination coverage 3
Campaign polio vaccination coverage b
Campaign vitamin A supplementation coverage 3
Measles vaccination coverage from surveys DC1 3
Polio vaccination coverage from surveys DC1 b
Vitamin A supplementation coverage from surveys DC1 3
Coverage of all basic vaccinations from surveys
Skilled attendant at delivery
Health seeking behaviour
Coverage of outreach programmes – CMAM (SAM, MAM, or both)
Prevalence of pregnant-W malnutrition DC1 b
Prevalence of lactating-W malnutrition DC1 b
Prevalence of maternal malnutrition DC1 b
Access to a sufficient quantity of water DC1 3
Access to improved sanitation facilities DC1 3
Access to an improved source of drinking water DC1 3
How is the projected levels of health services and health
environment as compared to historical trends?
[From the same period of the projection analysis in the past; include
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable]

Narative explanation:
(Briefly explain why the sitation is likely to improve, deriorate, or
remain similar)

BASIC CAUSES (OPTIONAIL)

CURRENT PROJECTION 1
Indicator (specify if the indicaror is likely to (a) improve, (b) DC, R Al
Ibb City Mashannah Al Dhihar
deteriorate, or (3) remain similar in the projection period Zone
Physical capital
Financial capital
Natural capital
Social capital
Policies, Institutions and Processes (PIPs)
Usual/Normal Shocks b
Unusual shocks b
How are the projected levels of basic causes as compared to
historical trends?
[From the same period of the projection analysis in the past; include
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable]

Narative explanation:
(Briefly explain why the sitation is likely to improve, deriorate, or
remain similar)

HUMANITARIAN AND SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAMMES

Programme coverage (specify if the coverage is likely to (a) improve, PROJECTION 1
(b) deteriorate, or (3) remain similar in the projection period DC, R Ibb City Al
Mashannah Al Dhihar
Blanket supplementary feeding programme coverage DC21 Zone
3
Micronutrient supplementation programme coverage DC19 3
Cash assistance programme coverage
How are the projected levels of programme coverage as compared
to historical trends?
[From the same period of the projection analysis in the past; include
historical evidence; consider seasonality where applicable]

Narative explanation:
(Briefly explain why the coverage is likely to improve, deriorate, or
remain the same)
 2017 2019 2021

MDD 34 30.1 42.2

MFF 47.9 44.5 52.9
MAD 4.3 9.6 13.2

Measles

43
2020 2021

6
Measles 6 43
2021 2020

2017 2019 2021

Diarrhoea 43.8 47.2 40.6

Acute
Respiratory
Infection
(ARI) 45.2 63.5 54

Malaria/
fever 50.2 64.8 65.3
 2019 2021
Exclusive 26.3% 11.4%
BF under 1 81% 65%
year 2
BF under
year 22% 18.6%

T r e n d o f c a r i n g a n d f e e d i n g p r a c ti c e

2019 2021
81%
65%

26.3%
18.6%
22%

11.4%

B F u n d er 2 y ear B F u n d er 1 y ear Ex c l u si v e
 STEP 8 : DETERMINE PHASE CLASSIFICATION (PROJECTION CLASSIFICATION)
[Include historical data and status of contributing factors as relevant to support the classification]

Indicator PROJECTION 1
Ibb City Zone Al Mashannah
Evolution compared to typical: How likely will the acute malnutrition 1
level be during projected period compared to historical trends for
the same peojection season?:
[worse = 1; similar = 2; better = 3]

Likely change compared to the current: How likely is the acute 1

malnutrition levels to change in the projection period compared to
the current period of analysis?
[to dereriorate = 1; to improve = 2; to remain similar = 3]

IPC AMN Phase in the Projected Period [Indicate the Phase number]: 2

Evidence Level: ***

[Acceptable=*, Medium=**, or High=***]
Justification: Based on historical data from EDEWs, the GAM seasonlity
elevated from June to October in all last 3 previous years, also
the current level of AWD, fever, and, ARI are high, the IDPs
represent 20% of zone population with ongiong infulx of IDPs
from active conflect in neighboring governorates and shortage
of HFA by more than 50% during 2021 and current shortage by
30% since Dec. 2021 based on data from ESCHAMSHA, all these
factors may participate strongly in derioration of GAM up to
phase 2 in the projected period as suspected by analysis group
as the current prevelance of GAM in the upper border of phase
1(4.3).

Distribution of population in IPC AFI Cla

Almashanah phase1
2020 35%
2021 10%
Aldihar phase1
2020 30%
2021 10%
ASSIFICATION)
assification]
Trend of PLW a
ECTION 1
Al Dhihar
21.2

10.6

6.2
3.4
Pregnant L

2017

T r e n d o f c a r in
EDEWs, the GAM seasonlity
r in all last 3 previous years, also
er, and, ARI are high, the IDPs
tion with ongiong infulx of IDPs
oring governorates and shortage
ng 2021 and current shortage by
data from ESCHAMSHA, all these
ly in derioration of GAM up to
d as suspected by analysis group
GAM in the upper border of phase

26.3%

11.4%
of population in IPC AFI Classification 2021 Ex clu s ive BF
phase2 phase3 phase4 phase5
35% 20% 10% 0
25% 50% 15% 0
phase2 phase3 phase4 phase5
35% 20% 15% 0
30% 45% 15% 0
 Trend of PLW acute malnutrition

21.2
19
17.6
15

10.6
Measles
9.9
6.2
3.4 4.2

Pregnant Lactating Maternal

2017 2019 2021

T r e n d o f c a r in g a n d fe e d in g p r a c ti c e
2019 2021
81%

6
2020 20
65%
26.3%

18.6%
22%
11.4%

Exclu s ive BF u n d e r 1 ye ar BF u n d e r 2 ye ar
Measles
43

2021
 STEP 9: IDENTIFY RISK FACTORS TO MONITOR (PROJECTION CLASSIFICATION)

Projection 1
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 STEP 10: IDENTIFY STRATEGIC PRIORITY RESPONSE OBJECTIVES

IMMEDIATE/SHORT TERM OBJECTIVES

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MEDIUM TO LONG TERM OBJECTIVES

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