MENA-2 TUESDAY MORNING ROUND-UP

EuroMoney is currently conducting its Middle East Research and Best Managed Companies Survey. The EuroMoney Survey runs until 24 June 2011. To vote for EFG Hermes, go to www.euromoney.com/MiddleEast2011 Thank you for your support.

Egypt

Egypt agrees on exported gas price to Jordan Ministry of Finance to amend new real estate tax law; may apply tax on undeveloped land Ministry of Tourism studying new land pricing method NTRA considers canceling MNP fees Madinaty court hearing today; TMG to request reschedule of hearing Banque du Caire signs EGP100 million loan to SMEs May total vehicle sales down 32% Y-o-Y, up 19% M-o-M

Saudi Arabia

NSCSA subsidiary inks Murabaha agreements worth SAR650 million Jabal Omar reports 2Q1432 net loss of SAR10.4 million, up 37% Y-o-Y and 41% Q-o-Q

Jordan

Jordan Ahli Bank to act as custodian, paying agent and registrar for JMRC Iraq boosts oil supplies to Jordan

Syria

Syria forces sweep Aleppo as Assad promises reform

Morocco

Moroccan trade union urges reform vote boycott

EFG Hermes Research

Sinai Cement Company (SC) - 1Q2011 Net Income Misses Estimate on Higher-than-Estimated Costs; Reiterate Neutral - Flash Note 20 June 2011

Agenda
Egypt Tue 21 June >> Housing and Development Bank ex-div date EGP 1 per share Thu 23 June >> Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG) ex-div date for 50.3 million bonus shares Saudi Arabia Sat 25 June >> Zain Saudi Arabia AGM Wed 29 June >> Dar Al Arkan AGM and EGM Sat 2 July >> Advanced Petrochemicals ex-div date for SAR1/share dividend

Egypt News
Egypt agrees on exported gas price to Jordan Jordan has agreed to raise the price that it pays for imported natural gas from Egypt to USD4/mbtu from USD1.5/mbtu, Al Masry Al Youm reported, citing sources at the Ministry of Petroleum. The new prices are expected to increase Egypts revenues by USD200 million a year. The sources pointed out that the new

rate will be uniform for all of the quantities exported to Jordan, including the 240 million cubic feet per day prescribed in the initial contract. The sources noted that the new rate does not apply to any future contracts between Jordan and Egypt with respect to gas, and is restricted only to volumes that are currently exported. According to one source, the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources has said that the negotiations with Jordan are nearing completion and contract between the two countries is expected to be signed later this month. (Al Masry Al Youm) Ministry of Finance to amend new real estate tax law; may apply tax on undeveloped land Minister of Finance Samir Radwan has announced amendments to the real estate tax law, which include applying the tax on units that exceed EGP1 million in value rather than applying it to those that exceed EGP500,000. Another amendment adds that owners of more than one property will be exempted from real estate taxes on properties worth EGP2 million, while the remaining properties under ownership will be taxed, Al Mal reported. On a separate note, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) is also looking to apply a 10% tax annually on undeveloped land if the developer is not committed to its development, Al Mal reported. (Al Mal) Ministry of Tourism studying new land pricing method The Ministry of Tourism (MoT) is studying a new land pricing method whereby land prices will be determined according to the availability of infrastructure and tourists in the area, Al Borsa has reported, quoting Hisham Zaazou, Senior Assistant to the Minister of Tourism Mounir Fakhry Abdel Nour. Zaazou added that the MoT has withdrawn land from 110 touristic developers and that it has allowed these companies to appeal withdrawal decisions, which have been based on violations of terms, such as construction within a specified time-frame. Zaazou also highlighted that tourism losses reached USD2.5 billion between the start of 2011 and June 2011. He added that the MoT is targeting 10 million tourists in 2012. (Al Borsa) NTRA considers canceling MNP fees The National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (NTRA) is considering the cancelation of Mobile Number Portability (MNP) fees paid by subscribers to port from one operator to another while retaining the same number. It is also considering canceling the rule that a subscriber must remain with an operator for at least a year before porting to another, along with a reduction in obstacles that prevent the use of the service, which was launched three years ago, according to Al Masry Al Youm. The NTRA added that it will not intervene between Vodafone Egypt (VFE) and Etisalat Misr in the dispute that was set off after the latter took charge of the fees paid by subscribers to port onto its network as nothing prevents that action legally. (Al Masry Al Youm) Madinaty court hearing today; TMG to request reschedule of hearing A court hearing related to Talaat Moustafa Groups (TMGs) [TMGH.CA] Madinaty contract case is to take place today. According to the companys legal advisor, Shawky el-Sayed, TMG plans to ask the court to reschedule the court hearing as no panel recommendation has been made to the court regarding this case to date, Al Alam Al Youm reported. (Al Alam Al Youm) TMG: EGP5.04, Rating: Buy, FV: EGP9.10, MCap: USD1,708 million, TMGH EY / TMGH.CA Banque du Caire signs EGP100 million loan to SMEs Banque du Caire, the third largest public bank in Egypt by assets, has signed an agreement with the Social Development Fund (SDF) to give out EGP100 million in loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The loan will be used for basic industries in the governorates of Sohag and Damiata. The bank will provide loans to around 100,000 workshop at an interest rate of around 7%, according to Hani Seif el Nasr, Managing Director of SDF. (al-Mal) May total vehicle sales down 32% Y-o-Y, up 19% M-o-M May total vehicle sales declined 32% Y-o-Y to 14,798 vehicles, according to a report published by the Automotive Marketing Information Council (AMIC), cited by Al-Mal newspaper. M-o-M, total vehicle sales increased 19.2%. Bus sales declined 55% Y-o-Y, but rose 5% M-o-M, to 1,039 units. Passenger car sales dropped 30% Y-o-Y, but increased 27% M-o-M, to 11,182 vehicles, while truck sales fell 28% Y-o-Y and 1% M-o-M to 2,577 units. Year-to-date (YTD) total imported vehicle sales dropped 45% Y-o-Y to 29,700 vehicles, while total locally-assembled vehicle sales dropped 33% Y-o-Y to 29,920 vehicles. (AMIC, Al Mal)

Saudi Arabia News

NSCSA subsidiary inks Murabaha agreements worth SAR650 million The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (NSCSA) [4030.SE] announced that its 80%-owned subsidiary, The National Chemical Carriers Company, has signed two Murabaha agreements for a total value of SAR650 million with Samba Financial Group (Samba) [1090.SE] and Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF) [1050.SE], the company said in a statement to the Saudi Stock Exchange. The funds will be used to finance 80% of the value of four petrochemical vessels that were ordered in 2010 from ShinaSB Yard Company (previously known as SLS shipbuilding Company) and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Company. The loans have a maturity of 10 years and will be repaid in equal semi-annual installments with a final installment equivalent to 30% of the loan value. (Tadawul)

NSCSA: SAR13.90, Rating: Neutral, FV: SAR16.2, MCap: USD1,168 million, NSCSA AB / 4030.SE Samba: SAR49.4, Rating: Buy, FV: SAR66.0, MCap: USD11,856 million, SAMBA AB /1090.SE BSF: SAR42.2, Rating: Buy, FV: SAR53.2, MCap: USD8,139 million, BSFR AB /1050.SE Jabal Omar reports 2Q1432 net loss of SAR10.4 million, loss widens 37% Y-o-Y and 41% Q-o-Q Jabal Omar Development Company (Jabal Omar) [4250.SE] has reported a net loss of SAR10.4 million for 2Q1432 (Hijri calendar), a deterioration of 37% Y-o-Y and 41% Q-o-Q. Losses were mainly due to the lack of operating revenues, as the companys project is currently under construction. On a separate note, the company managed to raise its capital by SAR2.6 billion through its rights issue during the quarter, which allocated one share for every 2.6 shares outstanding at a value of SAR10/share, Zawya Down Jones reported. The company collected total proceeds of SAR3.46 billion from the offering, which was oversubscribed by over 125%, Zawya Dow Jones reported, citing the offerings lead manager. (Tadawul, Zawya Dow Jones)

Jordan News
Jordan Ahli Bank to act as custodian, paying agent and registrar for JMRC Jordan Ahli Bank (JONB.AM) announced in a press release this week that it will handle all of the bond issuing (private placement) inside Jordan for Jordan Mortgage Refinance Company (JMRC.AM). Jordan Ahli Bank is active in bridging private banking services within the Jordanian capital market along with providing comprehensive support services for securities issued by companies and corporations, the press statement quoted Issa Khoury who, on behalf of Jordan Ahli Banks general manager, signed an agreement to this effect with Ibrahim Al Thaher, JMRCs general manager. (The Jordan Times) Iraq boosts oil supplies to Jordan Jordan has started to receive additional oil supplies from Iraq as officials in Amman continue to explore alternatives to address the Kingdoms energy woes. According to Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Khaled Toukan, Jordan has started to receive 15,000 barrels of Iraqi oil daily as part of an agreement struck between Baghdad and Amman earlier in June. Also under the deal, signed during a visit of Prime Minister Marouf Bakhit to Baghdad, the Kingdom currently receives 30,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil per day from Iraq at an USD88/tonne discount. The boost in Iraqi oil comes amidst a drop in Egyptian gas supplies, which Jordan relies on for 80% of its electricity needs; Iraqi heavy fuel oil accounts for the remaining 20%. (The Jordan Times)

Syria News
Syria forces sweep Aleppo as Assad promises reform Security forces have extended a sweep near the Turkish border to the merchant city of Aleppo, activists said, as President Bashar al-Assad pledged reforms that protesters said failed to meet popular demands. Protesters at the campus of Damascus University in Aleppo had criticised a speech by Assad, only his third since a popular uprising that began three months ago, inspired by popular protests across the Arab world that ousted autocratic rulers in Tunisia and Egypt. In a speech given at Damascus University, Assad reiterated a commitment to "national dialogue" and promised new laws regarding the media and parliamentary elections, but activists were dismissive. The United States (USs) has demanded action, not words from Assad. (Bloomberg)

Morocco News
Moroccan trade union urges reform vote boycott

One of Morocco's biggest trade unions urged its members on 20 June 2011 to boycott voting in a 1 July 2011 referendum for a reformed constitution led by King Mohammed, adding weight to a youth-led movement's opposition to the plan. "The proposed constitution reinforces what has always been applied in the past and does not deliver on what has been promised," Noubir Amaoui, who heads the Democratic Labour Confederation (CDT), told Reuters. The CDT has become the biggest organisation to announce its intention to boycott the referendum after three small left-wing parties and the youth-led February 20 Movement, which was inspired by revolts in Egypt and Tunisia, demanded the establishment of a parliamentary monarchy. Although exact membership figures are hard to come by, the CDT in 2009 won most seats amongst trade unions at elections of public administration employee representatives and also has a large following in the banking sector. King Mohammed announced on 17 June 2011 that he would devolve some of his powers to both the parliament and the government, and would put the reforms to a referendum on 1 July 2011. Under the changes, King Mohammed would retain his hold on security, the army and religion. This has disappointed some opponents, who had wanted to see the monarch hand over all of his executive powers to elected officials. (Reuters)

EFG Hermes Research

Sinai Cement Company (SC) - 1Q2011 Net Income Misses Estimate on Higher-than-Estimated Costs; Reiterate Neutral - Flash Note 20 June 2011 1Q2011 Net Income Misses Expectations, Maintain FV And Neutral Rating: Sinai Cement Company (SC) has reported 1Q2011 net income of EGP117 million, down 25% Y-o-Y and 68% Q-o-Q, and 19% below our estimate of EGP145 million on higher-than-estimated costs. Revenue came in at EGP334 million versus our estimate of EGP340 million. Revenue was down 10% Y-o-Y and 21% Q-o-Q mainly on: i) a local demand drop driven by political and security instability, ii) temporary shut downs at the companys plants during Bedouin attacks in February, and iii) increasing competition from new entrants, such as Al Sewedys plant in Suez. EBITDA margin in 1Q2011 reached 41% versus our estimate of 48%, 1Q2010s 48% and 4Q2010s 57%. Costs Higher-than-Estimated on Increased Mazote Use: Average production cost/tonne reached EGP207/tonne in 1Q2011, 12% above 2010s average. We highlight that historically, SC used 50% natural gas and 50% mazote in cement production (mazote costs are cEGP30-35/tonne higher than natural gas costs). The pipeline supplying gas to the company, which also supplies fuel to Jordan and Israel, exploded twice this year (in February and April). Although the company has indicated that it started using 100% mazote only after the second explosion, we estimate that 1Q2011 costs indicated higher mazote use postfirst explosion. Uncertain Demand Outlook Amidst Rising Competition: Given that all Egyptian cement companies under our coverage released their 1Q2011 financial results, we will revise our forecasts and valuation for SC to account for: i) the lower-than-expected drop in demand; and ii) the start-up of several new plants this year. We remain concerned about local cement demand in the short- and medium terms, however, as well as higher competition from the earlier-than-expected entry of new producers, particularly Al Sewedys plant in Suez and the planned start-up of the armed forces plant in Arish this year. (Malak Youssef, Ahmed Gad)

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