Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Convertible Instruments
Instruments
PART ONE
PART TWO
PART THREE
► Chapter 6: Quiz
► Issuer credit spread over swap curve is 200 bps for all maturities; swap
curve is flat at 5% (annually compounded)
► Issuer’s common stock is trading at $40, pays a dividend yield of 2%, and
its annualized volatility is 30%
► Note carefully it is dividend yield that is 2%, which means $0.8 annually
when the spot price is $40, but $1.0 when the spot price reaches $50, and
so on
► Issuer asks how much smaller the coupon would be if the 5-year bond
also gave the holder the option to convert into common shares in the
future
► Increase in stock price > $10 over 5 years would result in investor IRR >
3%, and large enough increase would cause IRR > normal IRR on straight
debt of 7%, potentially by significant margin
Call
Inputs Strike Option
$50 $8.47
Risk-free rate 5.00%
Credit spread 2.00%
Coupon 3.00%
RFR (CC) 4.88%
Spot 40
Vol 30%
Tenor 5.00
Div. yield 2.00%
Page 10 of 132
Breakdown of convertible
Convertible
Bond +
PV =
$100.55
2 Calls @ 50
("options")
PV = $8.47 x 2
= $16.94
► Need therefore to adjust down fair value of embedded 5-year call to reflect
this dilution effect
► Assume ABC has 100 shares outstanding, apart from the 2 shares
underlying the convertible
8.47 × 100
► This would lead to C* = = $8.30
102
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Page 13 of 132
Adjusted breakdown of convertible
3% Bond
("pure bond")
PV = $83.60
Convertible
Bond
PV = $100.20
+
2 Calls @ 50
("options")
PV = $8.30 x 2
= $16.60
► Suppose ABC has N shares outstanding; price per share is S; so aggregate market
value of ABC is N x S. Suppose also that M call options with strike X are written on
ABC stock by 3rd party, and Black-Scholes model reveals these to be worth $C
each
► Existence of these calls does not affect the aggregate market value of Company
ABC, since they involve a contractual agreement between two parties unrelated to
ABC, and since upon the issuance and/or exercise of these calls, the balance
sheet, capital structure, earnings and cash flows of ABC, all remain unchanged
► Now change one fact, so that these M call options with strike X are issued by ABC
Company itself: Upon exercise of these calls, the aggregate market value of ABC
should rise by the amount of cash it receives, which is MX, to a total of NS + MX
► But since ABC would now have N + M outstanding shares, the price of each share
should become (NS + MX)/(N+M)
For one thing, it is not unusual for the bond contract to specify
that accrued interest is foregone when the holder decides to
exercise the option to convert: any such foregone accrued
interest would need to be modeled as an increase in the strike
price of the embedded call option, and this increase would vary
depending on the date of exercise within an interest period if
such exercise is allowed
(1 + Div)t
► Thus increase in dividend yield, since it reduces stock forward
price, reduces value of call option while having no impact on pure
bond – and reduction in dividend yield, since it increases stock
forward price, increases value of call option, while also having no
impact on pure bond
Page 32 of 132
Can convertible ever trade below
intrinsic value?
► With call option so DITM at spot price of $90 per share, disadvantage of
owning convertible versus common shares stems from difference in their
current yield: convertible continues generating current yield of 3% on 100,
i.e. of $3 per annum, while common would now pay dividend yield of 2%
but on investment worth $180 – 2 shares worth $90 each – so aggregate
of $3.6 annually. Higher yield makes long stock position more attractive
than convertible, since in other respects positions are economically
identical.
$160.00
$140.00
Pure Bond
$120.00
$100.00 Convertible
(aggregate)
$80.00
2 Shares of
Common Stock
$60.00
$40.00
$20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90
Spot
IRR
Page 39 of 132
Stocks v. Convertibles IRR
19.50%
14.50%
9.50%
4.50%
-0.50%
$20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90
Stocks
-5.50% Convertibles
-10.50%
► Under this argument an investor who does not consider this scenario likely
should steer away altogether from any securities that have an equity
component.
► All depends on how you can afford to be wrong and tolerate risk of
negative IRR that arises with common shares in significant percentage of
scenarios, but rarely under convertible.
► No instrument in capital markets can “offer the best of both worlds”, other than
in a very twisted sense of this expression
► Always unstated that in a market in which the issuer’s common shares rise
but only slightly, convertibles may end up underperforming both
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Page 42 of 132
Diversification benefits
► Generally this was true for past 3 decades or so, but with interest
rates falling systematically and stock markets rising, it was
inevitable that convertibles would offer attractive returns. Whether
this is sustainable going forward is uncertain
► First show first how to derive from price of convertible bond implied
volatility for underlying stock
► Use pricing model from earlier to extract single volatility figure that
would make fair value of instrument equal to issue price, i.e. 100
Page 47 of 132
Deriving Implied Volatility
Call
Inputs Strike Option
$50 $4.10
Risk-free rate 5.00%
Credit spread 2.00%
Coupon 5.00%
RFR (CC) 4.88%
Spot 40
Vol 16.3%
Tenor 5.00
Div. yield 2.00%
Page 48 of 132
Convertible arbitrage funds
► Judgment call: does this level of vol sound right for next 5 years?
Position Profitable if
► Main financial benefit for issuer is coupon savings versus straight debt,
and preservation of cash – both through lower periodic payments of
interest and likelihood that instrument will redeem via delivery of stock
► Still, cannot say convertible is cheaper than straight debt in all cases:
cash outflows are lower than straight debt in all cases, but conversion
dilutes existing shareholders by the newcomers as share certificates
delivered are worth more than debt being converted
► When credit spreads are high and straight debt expensive, equity
volatility is usually high as well, making embedded equity option
more valuable, and pulling convertible’s coupon further down in
relative terms, and sometimes even in absolute terms
► So when credit spread is 2%, stock’s vol is 20%, and when credit spread
is 4%, stock’s vol rises to 40%
► Can calculate for each level of ABC’s credit spread – and by extension
equity volatility – coupon convertible needs to offer to trade at par. (Ignore
any incentive needed to entice investors into convertible)
► It will not always be true that a wider credit spread entails a lower coupon
on convertible
PART TWO
10% Bond
("pure bond")
PV = $112.30
Reverse
Convertible –
Bond
PV = $100.15 3 Puts @ $33.333
("options")
PV = $4.05 x 3
= $12.15
Put
Inputs Strike Option
$33.33 $4.05
Risk-free rate 5.00%
Credit spread 2.00%
Coupon 10.00%
RFR (CC) 4.88%
Spot 40
Vol 30%
Tenor 5.00
Div. yield 2.00%
Page 64 of 132
Reverse Convertible IRR
12.00%
8.00%
4.00%
0.00%
$20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00
► Investor is attracted precisely by this high coupon, but runs risk that in
adverse scenario, he will receive at maturity common worth (far) less than
original investment
Mandatory Convertible
Final Stock Price IRR
$20 -2.83%
$22 -1.53%
$24 -0.30%
$26 0.87%
$28 1.98%
$30 3.05%
$32 4.06%
$34 5.04%
$36 5.98%
$38 6.88%
$40 7.75%
$42 8.59%
$44 9.41%
$46 10.20%
$48 10.96%
$50 10.96%
$52 10.96%
$54 10.96%
$56 10.96%
$58 10.96%
$60 10.96%
$78 10.96%
$80 10.96%
$82 10.96%
$84 10.96%
$86 10.96%
$88 10.96%
$90 10.96%
Page 77 of 132
Mandatory Convertible IRR
12.00%
8.00%
4.00%
0.00%
$20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90
-4.00%
► Sale of call caps investor’s final payoff and hence IRR; sale of call
earns premium from ABC, which is not paid upfront but as annual
cash flow during 5-year period prior to conversion as part of 7.75%
dividend.
► Size of this cash flow is 5.75% per annum for 5 years, i.e.
difference between 7.75% dividend investor received under the
preferred prior to conversion, and the 2% dividend he would
receive during those 5 years if he purchased common with his
$1,000 instead.
$1,000
$20 $20 $20 $20 $20
ABC Investor
+25 shares
Yr1 Yr2 Yr3 Yr4 Yr5
► If ABC common is still < $48, call expires worthless and investor
keeps 25 shares, consistent with term sheet
► If ABC common > $48, call is exercised: normally this would mean
investor transfers shares and receives $1,200 in cash
► Now just replace the cash owed to the investor with ABC shares,
and you get to exactly what the term sheet says – we call this net
share settlement
► First, investor who buys common and sells calls against them
benefits from increases in dividend over 5 years prior to call’s
expiration, while under our mandatory dividend rate is fixed for all 5
years
Call
Inputs Strike Option
$48 $9.00
Risk-free rate 5.00%
Senior credit spread 2.00%
Pref-senior credit spread differential 1.75%
Dividend on preferred 7.75%
RFR (CC) 4.88%
Spot 40
Vol 30%
Tenor 5.00
Div. yield on common 2.00%
Page 86 of 132
Mandatories: benefits and risks
► If proven right issuer ends up with more limited dilution while investor
still achieves 10.96% IRR
Page 89 of 132
Final IRR Comparison
Page 90 of 132
Final IRR Comparison (cont)
IRR
Final
Stock Common Regular Reverse Mandatory
Price Stock Convertible Convertible Convertible
$20 -10.28% 3.00% 2.37% -2.83%
$22 -8.71% 3.00% 3.68% -1.53%
$24 -7.25% 3.00% 4.93% -0.30%
$26 -5.87% 3.00% 6.11% 0.87%
$28 -4.57% 3.00% 7.23% 1.98%
$30 -3.35% 3.00% 8.31% 3.05%
$32 -2.18% 3.00% 9.34% 4.06%
$34 -1.06% 3.00% 10.00% 5.04%
$36 0.00% 3.00% 10.00% 5.98%
$38 1.02% 3.00% 10.00% 6.88%
$40 2.00% 3.00% 10.00% 7.75%
$42 2.94% 3.00% 10.00% 8.59%
$44 3.85% 3.00% 10.00% 9.41%
$46 4.73% 3.00% 10.00% 10.20%
$48 5.58% 3.00% 10.00% 10.96%
$50 6.40% 3.00% 10.00% 10.96%
$52 7.20% 3.74% 10.00% 10.96%
$54 7.97% 4.46% 10.00% 10.96%
$56 8.72% 5.16% 10.00% 10.96%
$58 9.45% 5.85% 10.00% 10.96%
$60 10.16% 6.51% 10.00% 10.96%
$62 10.86% 7.16% 10.00% 10.96%
$78 15.85% 11.84% 10.00% 10.96%
$80 16.42% 12.37% 10.00% 10.96%
$82 16.98% 12.90% 10.00% 10.96%
$84 17.52% 13.41% 10.00% 10.96%
$86 18.06% 13.91% 10.00% 10.96%
$88 18.58% 14.41% 10.00% 10.96%
$90 19.10% 14.89% 10.00% 10.96%
Page 91 of 132
IRR Comparison
20.00%
15.00%
Common
Stock
10.00%
Regular
Convertible
5.00% Reverse
Convertible
0.00%
Mandatory
$20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 Convertible
-5.00%
-10.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
$2 $7 $12 $17 $22 $27
Regular
-4.00%
Convertible
Reverse
-6.00% Convertible
Mandatory
Convertible
-8.00%
-10.00%
IRR
Page 94 of 132
Convertible
Convertible Instruments
Instruments
(continued)
(continued)
PART THREE
► Chapter 6: Quiz
► We will in each case deal only with the most important issues and
not attempt a comprehensive review of all relevant questions
Coupon 3%
► Simple EPS is
Net income after tax $ 1, 000 , 000
= = $1 per share
shares outstanding 1, 000 , 000
► Fully-diluted EPS is
Net income after tax + (( 1 − tax rate) × Interest paid on convertible)
shares outstanding + shares to be issued upon conversion
$1,000,000 + (50% × $30,000) $ 1, 015 , 000
= = = $0.976 per share
1,000,000 + 40,000 1, 040 , 000
► Quiz
Call
Inputs Strike Option
$50 $8.17
Risk-free rate 4.50%
Credit spread 2.00%
Coupon 3.00%
RFR (CC) 4.40%
Spot 40
Vol 30%
Tenor 5.00
Div. yield 2.00%
a) $40
b) $50
c) $60
d) $70
Call
Inputs Strike Option
$50 $6.97
Risk-free rate 5.00%
Credit spread 2.00%
Coupon 5.02%
RFR (CC) 4.88%
Spot 40
Vol 20%
Tenor 10.00
Div. yield 3.00%
IRR
Final Convertible
Straight
Stock Stocks Convertible Underperforms
Debt
Price Both?
$20 -2.62% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$22 -1.90% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$24 -1.23% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$26 -0.59% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$36 2.09% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$38 2.55% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$40 3.00% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$42 3.43% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$44 3.84% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$46 4.24% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$48 4.62% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$50 4.99% 7.00% 5.02% NO
$52 5.35% 7.00% 5.33% YES
$54 5.69% 7.00% 5.64% YES
$56 6.03% 7.00% 5.93% YES
$58 6.36% 7.00% 6.22% YES
$60 6.67% 7.00% 6.50% YES
$62 6.98% 7.00% 6.78% YES
$64 7.28% 7.00% 7.04% NO
$66 7.58% 7.00% 7.30% NO
$68 7.86% 7.00% 7.56% NO
$70 8.14% 7.00% 7.81% NO
$86 10.16% 7.00% 9.62% NO
$88 10.39% 7.00% 9.83% NO
$90 10.61% 7.00% 10.03% NO
a) 25%
b) 40%
c) 55%
d) 70%
25% 6.37%
40% 6.42%
55% 6.27%
70% 6.01%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
$25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 $65 $70
-5.00%
-10.00%