Proceedings on International Conference on Disaster Risk Management,

Dhaka, Bangladesh, January 12-14, 2019

DEVELOPING PLANNING SOLUTIONS FOR MANAGING FIRE RISKS

CONSIDERING SPATIAL VARIATION OF THE RISK OF FIRE: A CASE
STUDY ON KHULNA CITY

C. Biswas1 and S.M. Haque2

ABSTRACT
Most of the City development plans in Bangladesh are prepared without considering fire risk implications in
city planning and management which could be responsible for disastrous fire incidents in cities. As being an
important economic hub of Bangladesh, Khulna city has experienced haphazard development that opens up
the possibilities of the frequent occurrence of the fire hazard. This paper aims to assess the spatial variation
of the fire risk of Khulna city through the index-based approach and to provide probable planning solutions
for managing it. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is used for developing the index which weights 18
parameters. Experts who have extensive knowledge about fire risk sensitivity are interviewed for weighing
in the AHP process. Data and information are derived from relevant secondary sources. Geographic
Information System (GIS) is used for analyzing and mapping the spatial variation of fire risk. Findings
suggest that fire risk can be categorized into three levels, out of total 31administrative wards in Khulna City
15 wards fall in high risk, 6 wards in medium and 10 in low-risk zones as far as the fire hazard is concerned.
These findings are used for suggesting planning solutions for fire risk management of the city.
Keywords: Fire Risk, Unpredictable Fire Hazard, Spatial variation, Index, AHP, GIS

Introduction
Over half of the world’s population lives in cities and towns due to rapid urbanization. More than 1billion
people live in urban areas today who are at risk of disasters like cyclones, floods, earthquakes, fire, crime,
and industrial accidents, because of high concentration of population, residential and commercial buildings,
industries (World Disaster Report, 2016). Earthquake, floods, fire incidents, and heatwaves are identified as
urban disasters, where fires and explosions are categories as a technological hazard (World disaster report,
2010). The world had experienced 385 massive fire hazards within 2010-2015 and most of the fire hazard
occurred in Asia and the number of total affected people in Asia is also highest which is 57 percent of the
total number of deaths from fire incidents (World Disaster Report, 2016). Bangladesh had experienced 8063
fire hazards in 2013 and the total amount of losses was 296.4crore Taka in 2013. Among the cities of
Bangladesh, Dhaka faced 2334 occurrences, Chittagong faced 1735 occurrences, Khulna faced
1041occurences in the same year (Disaster Report Bangladesh, 2013).
Generally, Spatial variation of fire incidences across a city can be attributed to its spatial heterogeneity, which
is the consequence of the difference of spatial characteristics of its built environment. So, fire risk patterns
are spatially correlated, e.g, (Adianto, 2015). That is why, to reduce risk, the spatial variation of risk is
important to identify. In this study, it is tried to develop fire risk index using analytical hierarchy process.
Weighting and classification have been done based on literature review and experts opinion combining 11
parameters to assess the variation of risk. This study classified 31wards of Khulna city based on fire risk score
to list out the hotspots to give priority for developing appropriate planning solutions to manage fire risk. It is
expected that; this analysis technique would be an usher in a new paradigm in city planning with the
integration of fire risk management issues.

Study area
This study is conducted in Khulna, which is the third largest city and economic hub of Bangladesh. Fire
hazard has become an important city planning and management issue in this city. According to Fire Services
and Civil Defense authority Khulna, total 190 fire incidents occurred within 2014-2017 years (Fire Services
and Civil Defense Authority, 2018). The number of occurrences was 29 in 2014, 27 in 2015, 65 in 2016 and
69 in 2017. So, the number fire incidences are increasing at an alarming rate every year. This city has 31
lowest administrative units and the study is trying to find out the spatial variation of fire risk in these wards.

1 Student, Urban and Rural Planning Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna-9208, Bangladesh
2 Professor, Urban and Rural Planning Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna-9208, Bangladesh
Email of Corresponding Author – bonnabiswas9@gmail.com
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Methodology
In this paper 3indices, 11components and 11 sub-components are selected based on reviewing the literature,
available data, and opinion of experts, have been used to measure composite fire risk index of Khulna city.
As risk is a function of the hazard, vulnerability to the hazard and coping capacity to withstand the effect of
that hazard, to assess the fire risk it is important to consider vulnerability, hazard, and coping capacity. So,
three indices, vulnerability index, hazard index, and coping capacity index are considered to develop
composite fire risk index. Components of fire vulnerability are Land use, average road width, building type,
and population density and sub-components of land use are waterbodies, vacant land, vegetation, public
building, residential, commercial, industrial and mixed-use area and the sub-components of building types
are kutcha, semi pucca and pucca and 3 components of hazard are losses in monetary term, number of dead
and number of victim and 3 components of coping capacity are availability of hospital, availability of fire
services and literacy rate are selected to analyze the risk of fire, which is shown in the table-1.
Analytic hierarchy process is used to produce an index of fire risk which weights and priorities of
Vulnerability, hazard and coping capacity parameters in this study. The AHP method includes three major
steps. The first step is the generation of binary comparison matrices on a scale of 1–9, 1 indicating that the
two elements are equally important, and 9 implying that one element is more important than the other (Saaty,
1990). The pairwise comparison matrix is developed for normalization of each parameter. In the second step,
the weight of different parameters is calculated from row multiplied value (RMV), un-normalized value and
normalized value using the equation (1) and (2). In equation (2) mi represents the un-normalized value of its
parameter and n represents the number of components.
𝑛
Un-normalized value, mi = √𝑅𝑀𝑉 ………………………………………………………. (1)
Normalized value = Mi/ ∑ni=1 Mi……………………………….…..…………………….. (2)

In the third step, the weight of each and the estimation of consistency between judgments are measured. The
consistency is measured using consistency index and consistency ratio using the equation (3) and (4). In
equation (3) L refers to the largest value of the pairwise comparison matrix and RI represent random
consistency index.

Consistency index= (L-n)/(n-1) …………………………..……………………………… (3)

Consistency ratio CR=CI/RI...…………………………………………………………..... (4)

If consistency ratio > 10%, the matrix is inconsistent and pairwise comparison must be re-performed between
components and sub-components. The measured ratios are, 1.5%, 5.5% and 5.6% for the components and
sub-components of fire vulnerability index and 0.03% for the components of hazard index and 0.3% for
coping capacity index and all of them are less than 10% which are consistent. Because each sub-component
is measured on a different scale, so it is first necessary to standardize the value of each sub-component.

𝑆𝑜−𝑆𝑚𝑖𝑛
Normalized value of sub-component = ……………………..…...………….. (5)
𝑆𝑚𝑎𝑥−𝑆𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑛

The equation (5) is used for this conversion was adapted from that used in the Human Development Index
(HDI) developed by UNDP, where So refers to the value of the sub-component, Smax means the highest
value and Smin indicates the lowest value, e.g, (Hahn, 2008).

The final value of sub-component = (1 − 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡)….. (6)

If the sub-component is negatively correlated with the component, to get the final value of that sub-component
equation (6) is used (Pelling, 2003).
∑𝑛
1 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
The score of component = ……………………..…...…………….... (7)
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
Index score, 𝑠 = ∑𝑛1 𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑖 ……………………..…...…………………………………….. (8)
Composite Fire Risk Index=
Fire vulnerability index * Fire Hazard Index / Coping capacity Index…………………. (9)

The equation (7) is used for getting the score of components and for calculating index equation (8) is used,
which is adapted from FRAME and modified following HDI procedure, where S means index score, n means

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the number of components, Wi means weight of component I and Si means normalized score of component
i. For computing composite index equation (9) is used which was also developed by FRAME.
Total weight of sub-components of each component is 1, shown in table-1. To find the value of each
component, all the normalized value of its sub-components are multiplied with their weight. Then, the results
added to find the value of the component. After normalizing the value of each component, they are multiplied
with the weight of each component and added together to find the score of each index. Then, the score of
composite fire risk is found using the equation (9).

Table-1: Components, sub-components, relation with risk, formula, and weight

Vulnerability
Component Sub- Relationship Formula Weight
Component with fire
risk Sub- Component
components
Land use Waterbody % Negatively Area of 0.14 0.31
correlated Waterbody*100/total
area of the ward
Vacant land% Negatively Area of the vacant 0.04
correlated land*100/total area of
the ward
Vegetation % Negatively Area of the 0.06
correlated vegetation*100/total
area of the ward
Public Positively Area of Public 0.07
building% correlated building*100/total
area of the ward
Residential Positively total residential 0.13
area % correlated area*100/total area of
the ward
Commercial Positively Total commercial 0.28
area % correlated area*100/total area of
the ward
Industrial area Positively Total industrial 0.10
% correlated area*100/total area of
the ward
Mixed-use % Positively Total mixed-use 0.18
correlated area*100/total area of
the ward
Average road width Negatively Total road width/total No sub- 0.23
correlated road number component
Building Kutcha% Positively Number of Kutcha 0.26 0.27
type correlated building*100/total
building of ward
Semi pucca% Positively Number of semi- 0.32
correlated pucca
building*100/total
building of ward
Pucca% Positively Number of Pucca 0.41
correlated building*100/total
building of ward
Population density Positively The total population No sub- 0.05
correlated of each ward/total component
area of the ward

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Building density Positively The total area covered No sub- 0.12

correlated by building/total area component
of the ward
Hazard

Losses in monetary term Positively Total loss within No sub- 0.10

correlated 2015-2017 years component
Number of Dead Positively Total number of deads No sub- 0.68
correlated within 2015-2017 component
years
Number of victims Positively Total number of No sub- 0.21
correlated victims within 2015- component
2017 years
Coping Capacity

Availability of Hospital Positively Total number of No sub- 0.34

correlated hospitals in each ward component
Availability of fire service Positively Total number of fire No sub- 0.57
facilities correlated service centers in each component
ward
Literacy Rate Positively The literacy rate of No sub- 0.08
correlated each ward component

Data analysis
The weight of the components and sub-components are determined by the Analytical Hierarchical Process.
Vulnerability, Hazard and coping capacity data of each ward of Khulna city are put in Excel 2016 in
quantitative forms and they are joined with GIS shapefile and analyzed by the tools like frequency
distributions, geoprocessing, spatial analysis. After that, wards are classified into three categories such as
low, medium and high-risk area using natural breakdown classification in ArcGIS 10.4. Then the
vulnerability, hazard, and coping capacity maps are produced separately based on their scores to present the
spatial variation of fire vulnerability, fire hazard and coping capacity of each of the wards in Khulna city.
The score of Fire Vulnerability Index is classified into three categories which are (0.2915-0.472) low, (0.472-
0.669) medium and (0.669-0.885) highly vulnerable. Whereas, fire hazard index is classified in (0-0.0034)
low, (0.0034-0.0507) medium and (0.0507-0.6927) highly hazardous and coping capacity index is classified
into (0.029-0.045) low, (0.045-0.134) medium and (0.134-0.628) high categories. Finally, the composite fire
risk index is classified into (-0.1128-0.304) low, (0.304-0.386) medium and (0.386-0.803) high-risk
categories.

Figure-1: The Vulnerability, HazardFindings

and Coping capacity map of the study area

The spatial variation of fire risk is analyzed by modifying FRAME approach of fire risk assessment. By
developing and analyzing the composite fire risk index, it is found that 15 wards are at highest risk of fire
hazard and 6 words are at medium risk and 10 wards are lowest at risk of fire hazard. The spatial variation of
fire risk is visually presented in Figure-2. As 21 words out of 31 words of Khulna city are at highest and
medium risk of fire hazard, it is very urgent to develop appropriate planning solutions to reduce the risk. For

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developing proper solutions focusing on priority areas, it is foremost important to identify main causes which
are responsible for risk. Ward no 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 21 and 31 are extremely at risk of
fire due to their least coping capacity in terms of lack of availability of fire service facilities and also most
vulnerable to fire hazard because of high building density and narrow road width. That is why these wards
have experienced most of the fire hazards in the last five years. So, it is first and foremost important to make
sure that availability of fire services can be ensured in these wards. Then, existing roads should be widened
and the new wide road should be constructed to ensure easy movement of emergency fire service vehicles.
Therefore, medium risk areas are ward no 4, 10, 18, 22, 27 and 28 which are the oldest developed part of the
city. Main causes of the frequent fire occurrence in these areas are high building density and also having most
of the industrial and mixed-use area. So, it is important to monitor the availability of fire service in these
critical areas and also, destruction of the existing building which are not developed following building code.
The amount of low-risk area is smaller than high and medium risk areas. So, policymakers should focus more
on the high and medium risk areas to reduce fire risk in Khulna city.

Figure-2: The Fire risk map of the study area

Conclusion
This paper has introduced ward wise fire risk assessment with the application of Index based approach and
GIS for Khulna city, which is expected to help the policymakers to identify hotspots for managing fire risks
of the city. The analysis technique used in this paper can be applied in any geographic location which is at
risk of fire. A more detailed analysis could not be done due to time and resource constraints. Therefore, further
researchers are suggested taking more variable at the neighborhood level to develop a more comprehensive
fire risk assessment of Khulna city.

Acknowledgment
The authors would like to thank M.D. Rezaul Karim, Aditional Director, fire service and civil defense
authority, Khulna and Abu Sayed, Town Planner, KDA for their valuable opinion and also grateful to fire
service and civil defense authority for providing the fire incident data those made this analysis possible.

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