Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

Multiple Sites Pre-Feasibility Study Approach for PV Diesel Hybrid System to

Reduce Cost of Energy and Fuel Consumption in Rural Areas of Maluku

Abstract-Maluku is a province with a massive number of rural and remote areas. Most electricity
generation in Maluku comes from diesel generation, which becomes remarkably costly with complicated
logistic and environmental impact issues. The state-owned utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara
(PLN) aims to reduce energy costs by hybridizing diesel generators with solar photovoltaic (PV) and
battery energy storage systems (BESS). PLN has partnered with New Zealand - Maluku Access for
Renewable Energy Support (NZMATES) to assess 42 locations in Maluku for the PV-BESS-diesel
hybridization plan. A tailored methodology has been developed to evaluate the locations to find the
best-fit system with optimal cost reduction at a time. The assessment consists of solar potential,
preliminary evaluation of electricity consumption and diesel generator, possible hybrid options with
different renewable energy fractions, cost of generation of the existing system and hybrid options, and the
cost of capital for the hybrid systems. This modelling indicates that the systems with high renewable
energy fractions provide more benefits than the lower ones. Furthermore, the result shows the total diesel
consumption estimation and the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of the 42 sites are reduced from 30.5
million L/yr to 5.8 million L/yr and from 0.62 USD/kWh on average to 0.42 USD/kWh after the
hybridization. The size of PV varies from 150-2,400 kWp with renewable energy fractions from 80-93%.
This method effectively prioritizes the sites economically and technically.

Keywords: Hybrid system, Solar PV, Pre-Feasibility Study, Renewable Energy, Rural electrification

Introduction
Reliable and sustainable rural electrification is currently still a challenge in Indonesia, a country with
17,508 islands. An expensive grid extension with only small demand in rural areas, high transportation
costs, and limited capital expenditure are the barriers to provide affordable electricity in rural and remote
areas [1][2]. As an archipelago province, Maluku consists of 1340 islands, including 120 inhabitant
islands with 1241 villages [3]. The state-owned utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) has an
obligation to provide electricity to all regions in Indonesia, including those rural areas. Most electricity
generation in Maluku comes from diesel generation, which becomes remarkably costly with complicated
logistic and environmental impact issues. For such, PLN Maluku Maluku Utara (MMU) is seeking
alternative ways of electricity generation throughout Maluku to lower generation costs and diesel fuel and
improve the quality of service for communities[4]. However, it becomes challenging to assess and
conduct a feasibility study for many locations at a time.

The hybridization of diesel generators aims to incorporate solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation and
battery energy storage systems (BESS) into diesel generators’ operation. Given the continued decrease in
solar and battery technologies prices and technological improvements provides an opportunity to reduce
the running costs, ease operations of systems in remote areas, automate service, improve quality, lower
Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

fuel volatility price risks, among other benefits [5]. PLN MMU and New Zealand - Maluku Access for
Renewable Energy Support (NZMATES) have collaborated to assess experience and lessons from PV and
diesel generator technologies in Maluku and jointly identify potential hybridization PV-BESS-Diesel
options [6].

The purpose of this paper is to assess the options of hybridizing existing diesel generator-based sites and
determine the best-fit-for-purpose solution to lower generation costs and is sustainable in the long term.
This paper aims to select the most beneficial system for each site for many sites effectively. Based on the
current situation and plan, PLN MMU identified 42 locations in Maluku to be assessed. Those 42 sites are
divided into five groups based on their geographical areas. Each model analyses several renewable energy
fraction configuration options to determine the optimal one. The recommendation is based on primary
data (i.e. load profile and key economic assumptions) and secondary data (i.e. price list and primary
energy potential) using software HOMER Pro and PVSyst. The outcomes of this paper will be used to
determine which locations are the best to be installed hybrid solutions for electricity supply. The result
shows that the hybrid PV-BESS-diesel generator system offers economic and technical benefits compared
to traditional diesel generators.

Literature Review

The hybrid system is believed to improve system reliability and reduce the cost and emission compared to
conventional diesel generators [7]. Several studies have shown a positive impact of hybrid systems on
cost, fuel reduction, and system performance [7-9]. The architecture of the hybrid micro-grid system in
this study integrates the PV, Generator, and BESS on the same bus bar that allows for renewable energy
penetration increase. The architecture allows for synchronous handover from renewables (diesel-off) to
diesel-on [9-10].

The most important part of the hybrid system is the presence of renewable energy. This study focus on
solar PV as a source of renewable energy. In order to design solar PV systems, PVSyst and Hybrid
Optimization of Multiple Energy Resources (HOMER) software are used. PVSyst is utilized for PV array
sizing and data analysis for the solar system [11]. Then, HOMER is used to determine optimum
stand-alone microgrid systems for each island and to exercise different system size options. HOMER
includes diverse functions for conducting analyses, such as sensitivity analysis that would be useful for
the analysis [12]. The optimization process is carried out in HOMER modelling to find out the most
suitable alternative in accordance with the given constraints. In general, the desired limit is the renewable
energy fraction and a decrease in LCOE [13] [14].

Fig. 1. HOMER PRO Schematic Diagrams for Hybrid System

Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

HOMERPro is a software to find feasible combinations of the potential equipment with a given constraint
to seek economic optimization of some alternative combination. HOMER PRO also has a feature to
choose the constraint and make some sensitivity analysis to the model based on variables used [9].

The optimization process objective is to establish the most favourable cost of every preference variable
that interests the modeller. The optimization can use the modeller to unearth the supreme microgrid
configuration exposed from an assortment of prospective outcomes. A modest Sizing optimization
technique for Photovoltaic-battery integrated renewable energy systems as in guided this paper. [13].
HOMER runs an optimization with various system architectures, including PV, storage, and generator,
and integrates it with the economic analysis [15-17]. The techno-economic analysis is a basis for this
study; different system configurations are assessed technically and economically to determine the
recommended system that accommodates system reliability and cost-effectiveness [15][17].

The system analysis also considers the renewable energy fraction in the system. Renewable energy
fraction is a portion of the energy from renewable sources absorbed by the demand, which the formula is
shown in (1) [16].

(1)

Where 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑛is renewable energy fraction, 𝐸𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑟𝑒𝑛 and, 𝐻𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑟𝑒𝑛 are the electricity and thermal energy from
nonrenewable sources and 𝐸𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 and 𝐻𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 are the total electricity and thermal load served.

HOMER will run optimization of net present cost (NPC) of all feasible technical solutions. NPC
calculates the present values of all system expenditures, such as capital cost, O&M cost, and fuel cost,
minus the present values of all revenues over the project lifetime [16].

(2)

Where 𝐶𝑎𝑚𝑛 is the total annualized cost and 𝐶𝑅𝐹 is a capital recovery factor. 𝐶𝑅𝐹 (𝑖, N) is determined by
the formula below (3):

(3)

(4)

Where 𝑖 is a real discount rate, 𝑖’ is a nominal discount rate, N is a number of years, and 𝑓 is an expected
inflation rate.

Another essential financial parameter is the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). LCOE is often used to
measure or compare two or more alternative sources of energy [18]. It can be helpful to compare
Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

measures between technologies or projects depending on the context. The LCOE’s formula is as follows
(5) :

𝑛 𝐶𝑡+𝑂𝑡+𝑉𝑡 𝑛 𝐸𝑡
𝑁𝑃𝐶
𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸 = 𝑁𝑃𝐸
= ∑ 𝑡 / ∑ 𝑡 (5)
𝑡=1 (1+𝑑) 𝑡=1 (1+𝑑)

Where NPE is the total energy production, Ct is the capital cost, Ot is the fixed operating cost, Vt is the
variable operating cost, Et is the energy generated, and d is the discount rate. All is calculated in period t,
where t ranges from year 1 to year n.

Methodology
The methodology proposed in this study aims to pick the most beneficial system for each site out of a
massive number of sites effectively. This paper focuses on how this methodology accelerates the process
of conducting a feasibility study on each site by prioritizing it based on the system recommendation. The
analysis of the system will consider a range of PV array, BESS, and generator sizes to meet the electricity
demand. The below flowchart represents the methodology for the multiple sites pre-feasibility study of
hybrid (PV-BESS-diesel) systems.

Fig. 2. Flowchart of methodology for the Multiple Sites Pre-Feasibility (NZMATES)

Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

The steps for a hybrid system pre-feasibility study are:

1. Site grouping by geographical location

The sites are divided based on their geographical locations. The grouping facilitates similar
information such as logistics, transportation, accommodation costs, remoteness/ accessibility,
solar irradiance potential, and the same technical administration within PLN. This grouping is
the key to accelerate the modelling process.

2. Data cleaning
The daily profile share was determined by the historical data record of several sites in
Maluku. This data was cleaned and analyzed before it was used in the simulation.

3. Load generation
Load generation will define the total demand required if each site operates for 24 hours. The
load generation is developed with the historical data. Some existing diesel generators that
only operated for 6, 12 and 18 hours will be converted. Moreover, each site’s energy
consumption (kWh/day) estimation and expected load growth in upcoming years were
determined.

4. PVSyst simulation
The PV systems are designed with PVSyst based on the location to get solar system
performance per PV array system [11][19].

5. HOMER modeling [12] [13]

Each group will be simulated in one HOMER model. The following data will be inputted
into the HOMER model simulation.
a. Cleaned historical data that presents load generation in each location
b. Key economic parameters such as inflation, discount rate, etc. were defined for the
financial analysis
c. Cost curves for capital cost and O&M cost are defined
d. Solar systems performances from PVSyst are divided by location. The input for the
HOMER model will use the percentage of the highest solar irradiance in each group.
e. Diesel generator datasheet and diesel price

6. Group pre-feasibility study

Based on the HOMER modelling result, all groups are assessed on technical and economic
grounds for the hybrid solution that combines PV with battery storage and diesel generator.
The different systems sizes are determined based on renewable energy fraction, including the
range of capital cost and LCOE.

7. Site prioritization
The results from all groups were then combined in one result table. This result will be used to
analyze the best scenario of the proposed system design considering LCOE, capital cost,
renewable energy fraction, and land required. This best scenario for system recommendation
will be prioritized [14]

8. Detailed feasibility study

Later, the detailed feasibility study will be conducted after prioritizing sites.
Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

Sites assessment and simulation

Sites grouping

A total of 42 sites in Maluku were assessed. These sites were divided into five groups based on their
geographical locations. The grouping purpose is to place sites with similar information such as logistic
and transportation cost, solar irradiance potential, and accessibility/remoteness. Furthermore, the grouping
will facilitate the homer model for each location. Those 42 sites grouping is designed as follow:

● Group 1: 6 locations in Ambon and Buru region.

● Group 2: 6 locations in Seram region.
● Group 3: 11 locations in Tual and Aru Archipelago region.
● Group 4: 4 locations in Tanimbar Archipelago region.
● Group 5: 15 locations in Southwest Maluku region.

Each group has a similar irradiance potential with a gap/differential value of 15%; the coverage area is
around 100 km to 450 km. It has the same path to access to facilitate the mobilization materials or any
requirements.

Design load profile

The daily load profile was derived from historical and several sites across Maluku to determine a typical
load shape. Load records were available for systems running 6, 12, 18, and 24 hours.

Fig. 3. Typical daily load shape in Maluku

From the above load shape, this study constructed a conversion factor when a system is upgraded from 6,
12, and 18 hours supply to a 24 hours supply since all the scenarios considered in this study would
upgrade to a 24 hours service operation [20].
Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

The conversion table is shown below:

Table I. Conversion factor for diesel hours of operation

Hours of Operation 6 12 18 24

% of 24 hours load profile 34% 59,7% 81,5% 100%

24 hours conversion factor 2,94 1,67 1,23 1

PLN has provided measured electricity usage data for all existing generation sites. This data has been
used to determine suitable energy consumption for each customer per day (kWh/customer/day), which
will be applied to all sites. This daily energy consumption value will be used for existing generator sites
that are being upgraded to 24 hours supply and new PV-BESS-Diesel hybrid sites.
From the data analyzing a value of 3.02 kWh/customer/day was the average consumption. It is clear that
the energy consumption per day will vary per location, size of community, activities, among others -
which will be looked at in more detail in detailed feasibility study stages.

For the annual load growth, 3.48%/year was assumed for the first five years. This value comes from
recorded electricity consumption in operating sites in Maluku between 2018 to 2019. After year 5, a
conservative growth of 2% was assumed from year 6 to year 10, and a lower 1% for years 11 to 20.

PV Systems Performance

This study has compared solar irradiance data from Meteoronom 7.2 and SolarGIS, and the lowest values
were selected. The solar irradiances for the 42 sites were assessed. PVSyst simulation results were
imported into HOMER to reflect the electricity generation attainable from the PV array.

Given that solar radiation varies within each group, the degradation option was used in HOMER. This
way, the site with the highest solar radiation (within each group) was defined as 100%, and other sites
with lower radiation were defined with a degradation. Such was pegged to the specific daily load to make
sure each particular demand (of each site) was modelled with the prescribed corresponding solar
radiation. The average solar irradiance potential for group 1 to group 5 are 4.82, 4.87, 5.51, 4.93, and 5.06
2
kwh/𝑚 /day.

Economic parameters

The key economic and financial assumptions and parameters were defined. These include diesel price and
growth rate, capital and O&M cost of PV, BESS and diesel generator, and financial assumptions on the
discount rate and inflation.
Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

Diesel price estimates

For the diesel price, the average of the last quarter of 2019 and first quarter of 2020 was used for the
diesel price, i.e. 7.785 IDR/L or 0.556 USD/L; this is the cost of diesel fuel in Ambon. The transportation
cost should be added to the diesel price. A conservative rate of 7% price increase per year was assumed.

​Capital and operational cost assumptions

Capital cost estimates have been made for both PV and BESS systems for input into Homer modelling.
The cost estimates include locally supplied electrical components in accordance with local content
regulations. Costs have been considered for each of the five groups separately.

This study uses O&M cost curves derived from plant capacity, i.e. the larger the system, the more
personnel it will require. O&M cost curves analysis comes from historical assessment data of operating
costs of PLN and Infratec experience with PV O&M costs. The essential O&M costs considered are site
personnel salaries, supervisor engineer for site visits, site visit costs, consumables (oil, filters, MCBs,
etc.), overheads, and Internet for salary cost assumption. The significant expense on O&M is for operation
overhead/salaries to pay plant operators, coordinators, and engineers. The total of the salaries cost of a
hybrid system is shared between PV and BESS O&M costs. The cost curves will vary for each group.

Fig. 4. PV system cost curves for group 1

Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

Fig. 5. BESS cost curves for group 1

Additionally, the following economic parameters are used in the assessment:

Tabel II. Key Economic Assumptions

Parameter Assumption

Discount rate [3] 9.8%

Inflation [3] 3%

Fuel price increase [3] 7%/year

Exchange rate (IDR/USD) [3] 15.000 IDR per USD

Project life (for economic assessment) 20 years

PV Lifetime [21] 25 years

BESS Lifetime [22] 10 Years

Result and analysis

All assumptions and values, load data, and PV systems from PVSyst will become an input for HOMER
models, one per group. A wide range of size options was introduced for the PV and BESS to get multiple
outputs of possible configurations. For each site, five options were assessed: small grid-connected (5%
RE, without battery), small hybrid (30-40% RE fraction), medium hybrid (50-55% RE fraction), and large
hybrid (>80% RE fraction) and stand-alone PV-BESS system (100% RE fraction with 5% maximum
outage). Results were classified in accordance with recommended system depending on Peak load and
plot Renewable energy fraction vs LCOE Reduction which is shown in the graphic below:
Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

Fig. 6. RE Fraction vs LCOE reduction for peak load 0 - 100 kW

Fig. 7. RE Fraction vs LCOE Reduction for peak load 100 - 200 kW

Fig. 8. RE Fraction vs LCOE Reduction for peak load 200 - 500 kW

From the graphic above, this study concludes that for the system with a peak load less than 500 kW, the
large hybrid system with more than 80% renewable energy fraction is the most beneficial system with the
highest LCOE reduction. The reason is that higher renewable energy penetration will provide more
Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

savings on the generation by using less fuel. However, the closer to 100% RE, the less benefit it becomes;
because the capital cost is very expensive due to the large battery capacity. Given that the lifespan of this
hybrid project will be 20 years, the battery’s capacity is also designed for the demand of year 20.
Furthermore, in a very small system (peak load less than 100 kW), a low renewable energy fraction could
lead to a more expensive cost of generation.
The best-fit system is selected for each site considering the least cost. The proposed systems present a
significant reduction in LCOE and fuel consumption for every group in Table III.
Table III. Result Table From the Simulation
Parameter Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5

Average diesel generator 0.515 0.589 0.646 0.653 0.656

LCOE (USD/kWh)

Average hybrid system 0.367 0.430 0.510 0.431 0.451

LCOE (USD/kWh)

Average LCOE 28.40 26.89 21.68 34.14 31.49

reduction (%)

Total fuel consumption 7,069,573 2,287,023 3,629,683 2,893,592 8,826,623

reduction (L/year)

The proposed system’s PV size varies between 150 kWp to 2,400 kWp depending on the site’s demand,
with the renewable energy fraction range between 80-93%. In summary, according to the proposed
system, the fuel consumption and LCOE for 42 sites are reduced from 30.5 million L/yr to 5.8 million
L/yr and from 0.62 USD/kWh on average to 0.42 USD/kWh on average after the hybridisation. The
average LCOE reduction is 28.1%, with the highest LCOE reduction reaching 42% of reduction.
System priority
After all proposed systems are selected, this study prioritises the site. This stage is essential to
accommodate capital limitations. Based on the cost-benefit analysis, the sites are prioritised by comparing
LCOE reduction, capital cost, and saving per million invested.
Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

Fig. 7. Capital expenditure vs LCOE reduction

Fig. 8. Saving vs LCOE reduction

The parameters (LCOE reduction, saving per million invested, and capital expenditure constraint) are
compared based on the previous graphs. This study selects sites that have intersections between the
graphs as a priority. The boundaries for the priority sites are the systems where the savings per million
invested is greater than 60,000, and LCOE reduction is more significant than 25%. Therefore, sites with
values lower than the setup boundary will be less priority.
Cigre Paper Competition Celebrating the Jubilee 100th Anniversary of CIGRE 1921 - 2021

Conclusion
This paper presents a study approach and methodology for multiple sites pre-feasibility study for PV
diesel hybrid system to reduce the cost of energy and fuel consumption in rural areas of Maluku. The
result clearly shows that hybrid systems reduce the cost of generation and diesel fuel use significantly
compared with existing full diesel generation. The system recommendation for each site out of 42 sites
has been selected based on the least cost. According to the result, the sites with a load peak less than 500
kW, the larger renewable energy penetration shows a better result. Therefore, for a small hybrid mini-grid
system, a high RE fraction is more likely to provide a better cost of generation.
The region with a massive number of rural and remote areas like Maluku will benefit from the hybrid
system due to fuel consumption reduction. However, assessing many sites at a time would be challenging.
Therefore, this study provides the methodology of conducting a pre-feasibility study for multiple
locations effectively, which could be applied in similar cases. However, a further detailed feasibility study
is still needed for the next step before the implementation planning.
This study indicates that hybrid system integration into existing diesel generators could contribute
significantly to achieve Indonesia’s target of 23% renewable energy share in the energy mix by 2025.
Besides, this hybrid system increases the system reliability to provide 24 hours of electricity access that
would improve the quality of life of the rural community [2].

Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank and appreciate all the support from PLN MMU and NZMATES, and
Infratec as NZMATES program implementers for providing us with the data and guidance for this study.

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