No more pencils, no more books Closing schools for covid- does lifelong harm and widens inequality TS IHF Sets of amsterdam chen spend the “corona holiday” whizzing ‘round on scooters; their peers in Madrid are mostiy stuck at home with video games; those in Dakar look after younger siblings. The one place they are not is at school. Over three-quarters of the world’s roughly 1sbn schoolchildren are barred from the classroom, according to UNESC ‘uNagency. In most of China and in South Korea they have not darkened school doors since January. In Portugal and California they will notreturn before September Schools have striven to remain open during wars, faminesandeven storms. The extent and length of school closures now happening in the rich world are unprece- dented, The costs are horrifying. Most im- ‘mediately, having to take care of children limits the productivity of parents. But in the long run that will be dwarfed by the amount of lost learning. Those costs will fall mostheavily onthose children whoare ‘most in need of education. Without inter- ventions the effects could last lifetime. For these reasons Singaporein 2003 cut its month-long June holiday by two weeks to make up for a fortnight of school cio- ssures during the sars epidemic. Closing schools even briefly hurts children's pros- pects. In America third-graders (seven- year-olds) affected by weather-related clo- sures do less well in state exams. French- speaking Belgian students hit by a two- ‘month teachers’ strike in 1990 were more likely to repeat a grade, and less likely to complete higher education, than similar Hlemish-speaking students not affected by the strike. cording to some studies, over the long summer break young children in “America lose between 20% and 50% of the sls they gained over the school yea. ‘Closures will hurt the youngest school- children most. "You can make up for lost ‘maths with summer school. But you can't casily do that with the stuff kids learn very young.” says Matthias Doepke of North- ‘western University. Social and emotional skills such as critical thinking, persever- ance and self-control are predictors of many things, from academic success and ‘employment to good health and the likei- hood of going to jal. Whereas older chi dren canbe plonked infront ofa computer, younger ones learn far more when digital study is supervised by anadult. Then there are those who are missing crucial exams. Germany is reopening schools forfinai-year high-school students Who face exams soon, But most countries are not willing to do that. China has post- onedits Leaving Certificate exam (gaokao) until July. Britain and France have can- celled this year's exams, Grades will in part be decided by teachers’ predictions of how astudent mighthave performed. This fuels fears about inequality, as some experts ‘worry teachers unconsciously discrimi- nate against disadvantaged children and sivethem unfairlylowmarks. Statistics Norway estimates “conserva- tively" that the country’s educational shut- sdowns—from créches to high schools—are costing NKr809 ($173) per child each day. Most ofthat is an estimate of how much less today's schoolchildren will earn in the future because their education has been disrupted, (itis assumed they are learning roughly halfof what they normally would.)‘The Economist May 2nd 2020 > The estis lost parental productivity today. OF course schooling has not stopped completely, as it does during holidays. Nearly nine in ten affected rich countries are providing some form ofdistance-learn- (compared with fewer than one in four poor countries). But video-conferencing hasits limits. For poorer children, internet ‘connections may be ropey. Devices may have tobe shared and homes may be over. crowded or noisy. Of the poorest quarter of ‘American children, one in four does not have access toacomputer athome. less well-off children everywhere are less likely to have well-educated parents ‘who coax them to attend remote lessons and help them with theit work. In Britain ‘more than half of pupils in private schools are taking partin dailyonline classes, com. Dated with just one in fve oftheir peers in State schools, according to the Sutton ‘Trust, a charity (private schools are more lkely to offer such lessons). In the frst Weeks of the lockdown some American schools reported that over a third of their students had not even logged in to the school system, let alone attended classes, ‘Meanwhile, elite schools report nearly full attendance and the rch have hired teach- ersas full-time tutors, Ashley Farris, an English teacherat xipP hhigh school in Denver, Colorado, says sev- eral of "her" kids are virtual truants. Her School worked hard to get students com- ters and Wi-Fi access, but the digital gap {sonly partofthestory. Some must workto ‘make up for parents’ lost wages, Others ‘must ook after younger siblings Closures in Britain could increase the ‘zp in school performance between chil- ren on school meals (a proxy for eco- ‘omic disadvantage) and those not on School meals, fears Becky Francis of the Education Endowment Foundation, an- ‘other charity. Over the past decade the gap, ‘measured by grades in tests, has narrowed by roughly 10%, but she thinks school clo- sres Could, a the very least, reverse this = From a distance Counties response toscheal cosures Dyremcelering pe and nome up NOnine WIV Rao IVE onined, oy ay oy do poet Seretmtrpscove ts Eeabcec ek Drogress. At least over summer, teachers are not on tap for anyone, in the current lockdown some students can sill quench their thirst for education not just with ‘highly educated parents but also with teachers; others will have access to neither. Primary school is normally a crucial op- Portunity for gaps that emerged in eariy- years developmentto star narrowing, orat least to stop widening. That opportunity is now beingmissed, Foraglimpse ofthe cost GEER Ago Rosalne Marga sce Jondary-school education cametoa hhaltjustasit was about to begin. In 2014-45 schoolsin SierraLeone were losed for nine months because of the Ebola outbreakin west Atica Sixyears laterherschooling has again been inter- rupted, Covid-19 has caused Sierra Leone tocoseits schoolsand to cancel or post- ‘pone exams. Ms Margai was determined tostartcollege by theage ofr. “Iwill turn 47 S00n,"sheexplains. "But fear will ‘ot beable totake examsin time” ‘Across west Africa memories ofthe | devastation caused by Ebola and the ‘school shutdowns are stil fresh, Educa- ton forsmchildren was severely dis- rupted. Theluckiestmetsporadicallyin ‘small groups inhomes. Others listened togovernment-provided education progammesbyradio.Butformany, | learning stopped altogether. Children were more likely togoto work Sexual exploitation increased. Unplanned teen pregnancies rose sharp- Jy. When you live ina country thatal- ready struggles tokeep kids in school, and then schoolsare closed and poverty 880es through the roof, you quickly be- comea candidate or childlabour, says Hani Mansourian of unicer, the Un’s children's agency. Heworries about similar dynamic now with the; ‘ment overstretched, itis easier forem- ployerstohire cheap young iabout, An2o14 school closures crimped many | essential services, suchas autrition and health programmes, information on disease prevention, and accessto clean ‘water and sanitation, According to UN- toxe, neariyim children in iberiawere ‘notimmunised that year. Wren schools did reopen, many Pupils did notreturn Sierrateone’s ‘government banned “visibly pregnant Biris" from school. na survey in 20:5 of adolescent girls asked why they werenot insecondary school, “my parentscannot International 45 tothe unluckiest young children, consider tie Pery pre-school project of the 19605, 4 study conducted in Ypsilanti, Michigan, Which found thata control group of young children from disadvantaged backgrounds who did not attend pre-school suffered lifelongconsequences, ‘Mr Doepke estimates that by the au: ‘umn the sizeable group of American chi ren whose learning loss started when Schools closed mighthave lostas much asa »» afford i” soared as reason, recalls Tom Dannatt ofStreet Child, a British charity. ‘Ms Margai remembers many kids drop- ping out: “Thelr parents would say there isnoneed tobe in schoolany more!" ‘The current crisis is insomeways ‘worse. During the Ebola outbreak, clubs forgirls in some places provided educa tion and support:thoseattendingwere Jess likely to get pregnantthan those in similarly affected areas without such ‘Broups. Social distancing means that Such eforts willbe hard to replicate now. ‘Mr Mansourian fears that the long-term ‘consequences ofcovid-19 in ow- and ‘middle-income countries willbe"much, ‘more dire’ than Ebola was in west aitica, ‘Though itwas terrible for children ‘overall, Fbola did have the good effect of, highlighting the flawsin westafrican education systems, Itgalvanised efforts ‘toimprove schooling, increase educa tion budgets and seduce classroom ‘crowding. Whilstitseemsearly—and almost grim—to bethinkingofitnow? sayo Mr Dannatt, “weshould also abso- lutely belookingathow we can reopen. education onanewlevelafterthectisis”