Migration facts in a post-truth world about:reader?url=http://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2016/1...

thenewhumanitarian.org

Migration facts in a post-truth world

OXFORD
9-11 minut

Louisa Gouliamaki/IRIN

Kristy Siegfried

Migration Editor

Post-Brexit and post-Donald Trump’s election, it’s hard to argue

with the notion that we’re now living in a “post-truth” era in which
objective facts often hold less weight than emotional appeals and
“fake news” when it comes to shaping public opinion. Nowhere
have post-truths gained more currency than in debates around
immigration. Here are a few of the most influential post-truths
about migration and refugees, and the facts that contradict them:

Refugees are a security threat

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One of the most potent post-truths is the idea that terrorists are
posing as refugees to gain entry to Europe and the United
States. Right-wing politicians and media outlets have
successfully made the association between a string of terror
attacks over the past year and the unprecedented and chaotic
arrival of more than a million asylum seekers to European shores
in 2015. Most of those asylum seekers came from countries such
as Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan that are associated in the public’s
mind with extremist groups like so-called Islamic State and al-
Qaeda; never mind the fact that many were themselves fleeing
those groups. A July study by the Pew Research Centre found
that in eight out of 10 European nations surveyed, half or more
people believed that incoming refugees increased the likelihood
of terrorism in their country.

Many of the claims about extremists infiltrating refugee flows to

Europe stemmed from the November 2015 terrorist attacks in
Paris and the discovery of Syrian passports near the bodies of
two of the perpetrators. At least one of the passports was proven
to be fake and the Paris attackers turned out to be second-
generation immigrants who had grown up in France or Belgium
and then spent time in Syria after joining IS. But the attacks did
expose genuine concerns about the lack of screening on the
Greek islands at the peak of refugee arrivals in 2015. Those
concerns have been largely addressed by new screening
procedures, border controls and fences along the main migration
routes through Europe, but the possibility that a small number of
would-be terrorists entered Europe and registered as asylum
seekers in 2015 can’t be discounted. In September, German
authorities arrested three Syrian men who had made their way to
Germany last year, on suspicion that they were part of an IS
sleeper cell. Another Syrian terror suspect, allegedly radicalised

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after he arrived in Germany, was arrested in Leipzig after three

fellow Syrians identified him and tied him up before calling the
police.

Despite such cases, the vast majority of acts of terror both in

Europe and the US have been carried out by “homegrown”
extremists, radicalised over the internet or during trips abroad.
Experts note that using terrorism as the justification for increased
migration controls has the effect of increasing feelings of
alienation within immigrant communities and stoking xenophobia
towards them, a vicious cycle likely to create more extremists of
the homegrown variety than to have any impact on the few
proven instances of violent extremists infiltrating countries posing
as refugees.

The Syrian refugees as Trojan horse argument made by Donald

Trump has even less factual basis in the US context in which the
only way for most refugees to enter the country is via formal
refugee resettlement programmes. Contrary to Trump’s
suggestion that vetting of such refugees is inadequate, it is
extremely rigorous and involves security checks by various
agencies that can take up to two years. An October 2015
analysis by Kathleen Newland of the Migration Policy Institute
found that of 784,000 refugees resettled to the US since 2001,
just three had been arrested for plotting extremist activities (two
were not planning an attack in the US and the plans of the third
were “barely credible”).

“The refugee resettlement programme is the least likely avenue

for a terrorist to choose,” concluded Newland.

The “crisis” narrative

Boats crammed with migrants and asylum seekers had been

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crossing the Central Mediterranean to Italy at a steady rate for

over a year when, around mid-2015, the Eastern Mediterranean
route between Turkey and the Greek islands picked up and soon
eclipsed the Central Mediterranean route in terms of numbers. It
was around this time that we started talking about a refugee or
migration crisis. The term became synonymous with images of
Syrian families staggering onto Greek beaches and columns of
migrants and refugees trudging through the Balkans. The media
loves a crisis and this was one that European news outlets could
easily cover by dispatching a journalist to Lesvos, Budapest, or
Munich.

But migrant and refugee arrivals in 2015 were a crisis only

relative to what Europe had experienced before and the degree
to which it was unprepared for what was to come. Countries like
Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon that had been absorbing large
numbers of refugees for years certainly didn’t view Europe’s
predicament as a crisis. Nor did African countries like Uganda,
Ethiopia, and Chad that have been hosting hundreds of
thousands of refugees for years.

The crisis narrative has helped populist, right-wing political

parties push their anti-immigration agenda (look no further than
Nigel Farage’s infamous Brexit campaign poster featuring crowds
of asylum seekers on a Balkan road), but it has also driven the
EU’s policy responses. The factors driving refugee and migrant
arrivals to Europe are complex and long-term and have no clear
beginning or end. Defining the phenomenon as a crisis has often
resulted in short-term, short-sighted policies like the EU’s
controversial deal with Turkey.

Development aid to the rescue

In the past year, the EU has announced several new initiatives

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offering large amounts of development aid to major countries of

origin with the goal of stemming migration. The logic goes that
such aid spurs economic development, creating new jobs and
reducing the need for people to migrate in search of better
opportunities.

Migration experts and economists have been making the point for
years that this approach goes against all the evidence that
development tends to spur rather than reduce migration as more
people have the resources (and aspirations) needed to fund the
journey to Europe or elsewhere.

The EU has nevertheless forged ahead with the multi-billion-euro

Emergency Trust Fund for Africa, announced last November as
well as the Partnership Framework with third countries launched
in June this year. Perhaps realising that development aid alone
wouldn’t achieve its migration objectives, the Partnership
Framework involves more of a carrot and stick approach.
Packages of development aid and trade deals are offered only in
return for countries’ cooperation in implementing more migration
controls.

Migrants and refugees are a drain on the economy

This is perhaps the greatest post-truth of all and the one that
Brexit campaigners and Donald Trump manipulated most
effectively.

Claims in the UK’s right-wing tabloid press and by conservative

politicians that migrants are coming to the country primarily to
take advantage of its social services (otherwise known as
“benefit tourism”) have little basis in reality. In many countries,
migrants – particularly irregular migrants – have no access to
social services. Where they can access the welfare system, they

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are much less likely to do so than locals, partly because a larger

proportion of them are young adults with fewer health and
educational needs. A study by University College London found
that migrants in the UK contributed significantly more in taxes
than they received in social benefits.

The effects of immigration on labour markets are more complex

and varied. In developed countries, especially during periods of
economic growth, migrant workers often hold low-skilled, low-
paid jobs that natives are unwilling to do. Although competition
for such jobs may become fiercer during an economic downturn,
immigration can also create jobs by stimulating economic growth,
and because migrant-run businesses often employ locals. There
is a strong correlation between immigration rates and economic
growth rates. When growth and job opportunities slow, so does
immigration.

The impact refugees and asylum seekers have on labour

markets and public spending depends to a large degree on the
policies of the host country – how long they must wait before they
can legally work, what language and training programmes are
available to facilitate integration and employability, and how much
support they receive in the form of allowances and housing. An
OECD study found that up-front investments in helping refugees
integrate are likely to have a long-term pay off as refugees
eventually enter the labour market and start making positive
contributions to the economy.

(TOP PHOTO: Migrants and asylum seekers queue up at

Mytilene Port on the Greek island of Lesvos waiting for police
clearance. Louisa Gouliamaki/IRIN)

ks/ag

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