Climate Change and Pakistan

Discuss the economic impact of climate change on Pakistan

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Climate Change Impact on Pakistan

Climate change is the most important issue of our age; we are the first to see its early warning signals
and the last to have a chance to prevent it from occurring. Climate change has put a lot of countries at
hazard, and the risk is significantly larger for developing countries. Because of this serious problem,
which is having a severe impact on the area, South Asia has grown more disaster-prone. In general,
climate change is accelerating and having severe consequences for Pakistan. Pakistan is geologically
located in a region where the effects of climate change are being felt fairly strongly. This climate disaster
has had enormous economic, social, and environmental consequences.

Effect on Agriculture and Food Insecurity

Pakistan is more susceptible to the effects of changing climate because of its agrarian base and high
dependency on natural resources for livelihoods. As agriculture is the lifeline of our economy, the
influence of changing temperatures is expected to be most lethal in this sector. Pakistan's Food Security
has been put at risk and a reduction in annual crop yields brought on by various factors including
increased water logging, desertification of land, growing frequency of pest attacks and disasters has
been observed. According to projections, with just a 1°C rise in temperature, wheat yield in Pakistan is
estimated to decline by 6-9% and an even lesserrise in temperature will severely impact cash crops like
mango and cotton.

Pakistan economy is dependent on agriculture in more ways than one and is posed to suffer risk greater
than the ones already mentioned. The dependency of our industrial sector on agricultural raw material
indicates that climate change is set to sabotage the supply chain of industry as well. Consequently,
damage to livelihoods will not remain confined to the agricultural sector alone but will also spillover to
the industrial markets.

National Energy Security

It is pertinent to mention here the risk to National Energy Security, as energy is both a cause and casualty
of climate change. It is a casualty in Pakistan's case because the shortage of water and variation in river
flows affects our potential to generate hydropower. It is also likely that global energy costs will
increasingly begin to reflect the true environmental cost of production and consumption and become
prohibitively expensive for populations of developing countries.

Threat to Human Settlement on Coastal Areas

Moving from economic issues to issues of a more social nature, a significant vulnerability factor for
Pakistan is the threat of climate change to our human settlements in Coastal Areas. Rising sea levels
coupled with the increasing precipitation in some regions threaten to wreak havoc on many coastal
towns and cities and can even possibly submerge them underwater. In 2007, the tropical cyclone Yemyin
killed 529 people and caused damages to 2.5 million people in Sindh and Balochistan. With storm surges
expected to increase and intensify and sea levels projected to rise, the populations in Karachi and other
coastal belts are at great risk of displacement and destitution. This also means greater pressure on
disaster relief agencies to reach out to growing number of disaster victims and could very well be facing
population displacement crisis if the worst case scenario takes place in our coastal areas.

Human Health

All things considered, the impact of climate change on human health is obvious. In the face of calamities
and natural resource shortages, human health is bound to suffer. Additionally, many diseases such as
malaria, dengue and cholera are known to be sensitive to climatic factors. Warmer weather creates a
more favorable environment for mosquitoes and other disease carrying pest and, therefore, increases
the likelihood of disease break-outs among the masses.

Flooding

Additionally, flooding has been widespread throughout the entire country, largely due to rapidly melting
glaciers. The glacial melt not only dwindles fresh water reserves at the basin, but also leads to intensified
flooding of the Indus Valley River System. Melting glaciers “are the biggest economic, human and
national-security threat Pakistan will ever face,” said climate policy consultant Dawar Butt. Individuals
residing in the northern region of Pakistan have noticed the glaciated margin pulling back further each
year, part of the larger Himalayan and Karakoram glacial range that is in rapid retreat causing disasters
throughout Pakistan, India, and Nepal.

Climate Change Impact on Economy of Pakistan

The nature of Pakistan’s economy is agro-based, and this is where these sudden worldwide environment
changes are a major threat to Pakistan’s agriculture sector. Currently, the global reports are indicating
that the nation is placed 12th among the countries, which are under serious threat due to these rapid
weather changes.

The varying degree of temperature rise and modifications in precipitation are extremely vulnerable for
Pakistan, and there are great chances that it would severely damage country’s water resources, forests
and agriculture, mostly on which the living and economy depends.

Particularly, the fast temperature rise is expected to change the bio-physical correlation of fisheries,
livestock, crops and forests, by reducing their growth periods, alteration in species patterns, variation in
water necessities, amplification of pests and diseases, and intensification in thermal and moisture
stresses.

As far as the agriculture sector and natural resources are concerned, the climatic alterations effects
would differ due to varied agro-ecological areas. The western mountainous part that is dry in nature, the
quick temperature rise could increase the course of de-glaciations, which would massively affect the
water resources that are extraordinarily used for agriculture and energy production.

Warning of an increase of up to 2.5 degrees Celsius in temperature over the next two decades, the Asian
Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank (WB) have estimated that Pakistan is facing up to $3.8 billion
in annual economic loss due to climate change.

Food: Food security is primarily related to crop production and food accessibility; both of these elements
are directly affected by climate change. Thus, climate change is a main factor determining global,
national, and regional food security. he one single event of devastating 2010 flooding eroded away 6
percent of our GDP. The World Wide Fund for Nature-Pakistan (WWF-Pakistan), in collaboration with the
London School of Economics-Political Sciences and Lahore University of Management Sciences presented
a report and highlighted the issue of climate change in Pakistan and its impact on agriculture and food
security. According to this report, changing climate will directly affect agricultural productivity. By 2040,
an increase in average temperature of 0.5 degree Celsius is expected nationwide, with 8-10 percent loss
in terms of all crops corresponding to Pakistani Rupees 30,000 per acre.

Energy; Climate change has direct consequences on energy with respect to its use and production. The
main effects of changing climate are an increase in energy consumption in residential, commercial, and
industry sectors for different purposes such as for space cooling in response to increased temperature
and industrial process cooling (in thermal power plants and steel mills), refrigeration, pumping water for
municipal and agricultural irrigation. According to National Economic & Environmental Development
Study Report,5 during 2008-2009, Pakistan’s net energy consumption was 37.3million tonnes. This
energy consumption was met from different sources including gas (43.4%), oil (29%), electricity (15.3%),
coal (10.4%), and LPG (1.5%). All of these energy sources collectively account for 51% of the national
greenhouse gas emission. In contrast to last ten years, use of petroleum has increased by 0.5% per
annum, gas by 6.8%, electricity by 5%, and coal by 12.5% per annum. Whereas, in the last five years
there has been an increase in gas consumption by 9%, an increase in coal consumption of 1.5%, and a
reduction in oil consumption by 9.5%.

Water: Climate change will impact water quality and availability causing vulnerabilities to both rural and
urban areas. The rural areas will suffer from a drought affecting food production and the livelihood of
rural communities. On the other hand, the urban population suffer from water scarcity and heatwaves.
The report found that the average mortality from floods, storms and droughts is 9 times higher in
Pakistan and other highly vulnerable countries as compared to European countries. This is particularly
alarming as various part of the country is suffering from water availability.

Coastal cities: People living in cities face higher risks of heat stress, reduced air quality, lack of water, and
food shortages caused by climate change. However, this risk is severe in coastal cities such as Karachi due
to the risk from coastal-specific climate hazards. The recent urban flooding in Karachi shows that flood-
related vulnerabilities will be spread over rich and poor areas of the city.

climate change has caused several natural events, which are labeled disasters on the unfortunate event
of loss of life. Destruction of infrastructure and regional instability are felt for long periods after the
event. One of Pakistan’s most notable natural event was the 2010 floods.

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