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Authors
Federico Agnoletto
Senior Economist This research and material has been prepared by GSMA Intelligence thanks to the sponsorship of
Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. GSMA Intelligence is not liable for the accuracy of this material when
Pau Castells used or relied on by a third party. GSMA Intelligence accepts no responsibility for errors in the
Head of Economic Analysis information sourced or provided nor the effect of any such errors on any analysis, suggestions or
recommendations. This report in its entirety, including any analysis included herein, was conducted
solely by GSMA Intelligence. Qualcomm Technologies has not written this study nor conducted any
analysis included herein.
CONTENTS 1 Executive summary
Executive summary
5G FWA is now a reality in many markets – Fixed wireless access (FWA) networks have been around for decades, with the majority
1
of commercial services using 4G. However, FWA market adoption has been limited so far, with its share of total fixed broadband
connections in the low to mid-single digits. 5G is making FWA a more competitive solution versus FTTH and cable, as it provides
speeds of over 10× that of 4G FWA. As of Q1 2022, 74 fixed broadband service providers had launched commercial 5G FWA services
across 38 countries. GSMA Intelligence expects global 5G FWA connections to reach 40 million by the end of 2025, with the
majority in developed countries such as the US.
5G mmWave FWA is cost-effective versus FTTH when deploying the latter requires the building of new underground or
2
overground infrastructure – Mobile network operators (MNOs) with limited mid-band assets can consider 5G mmWave FWA cost-
effective versus FTTH when new ducts or poles to deploy fibre cables need to be built by the operator. Expected cost savings in
several regions can reach 65% in rural towns, 45% in suburban areas and 40% in urban areas. For further detail, see the Europe, US
and Latin America report and the Southeast Asia report
report.
5G mid-band plus mmWave FWA is cost-effective versus FTTH in many instances where the underlying fibre infrastructure can
3
be rented or shared – MNOs with reasonable mid-band and mmWave assets can expect a 5G FWA network to be cost-effective
versus FTTH even where ducts or poles for fibre cables can be rented or shared. GSMA Intelligence estimates up to 30% cost
savings in such cases. 5G FWA cost savings increase significantly where the operator would need to build ducts or poles to deploy
fibre cables. For further detail, see the Europe, US and Latin America report and the Southeast Asia report
report.
Greenfield 5G mmWave FWA is cost-effective for ISPs looking to complement their wireline networks or enter new markets
4
– GSMA Intelligence research indicates that an ISP looking to deploy a greenfield 5G mmWave FWA network can expect it to be
cost-effective versus FTTH where the cost of deploying the latter requires building new underground ducts, with cost savings of up
to 50% in rural towns, 40% in suburban areas and 20% in urban areas. A greenfield 5G mid-band plus mmWave FWA strategy can
improve cost savings but requires the acquisition of highly sought-after mid-band spectrum. For further detail, see the Europe, US
and Latin America report and the Southeast Asia report
report.
The use of self-mounted, high-power indoor CPE, outdoor CPE, or shared CPE in multi-dwelling buildings can improve the
5
4 economics of 5G FWA – Our sensitivity analyses show that, depending on the area and scenario, such strategies can boost 5G FWA
cost savings by up to 40 percentage points.
Executive summary 5
80%
of up to 80% where fibre cables would need
to be deployed underground in ducts built 44% 120 5G FWA CPE models available from 72
different vendors, up from 16 in May 2020.
by the operator. This assumes at least 100 Growing CPE model diversity, an expected
Mbps downlink and compares TCO over 10 fall in CPE costs and continuing CPE
years in Europe, the US, Latin America and innovation all help boost 5G FWA rollout.
Southeast Asia.
CONTENTS 1 Executive summary
*Fixed broadband connections (residential and business) as a percentage of households. Source GSMA Intelligence
**Across 36 of the world’s largest fixed broadband markets. Simple average.
Fixed broadband and 5G FWA outlook 8
Mexico 2%
Chile 2%
Netherlands 2%
France 2%
Bulgaria 1%
US 1%
Denmark 1%
Austria 1%
Spain 1%
Note: 13 markets (of the 36 fixed broadband markets covered by GSMA Intelligence) where FWA household Source GSMA Intelligence
penetration is less than 1% have not been included. Two markets had no FWA connections as of 2021.
Fixed broadband and 5G FWA outlook 9
5G FWA launches
As of Q1 2022:
Source GSMA Intelligence Note: map considers all countries beyond the 36 markets covered in the forecast.
Status defined as live where at least one operator has commercially deployed a 5G FWA network.
Fixed broadband and 5G FWA outlook 10
Verizon Claro
US Cellular Fastweb
5G
FWA
T-Mobile Globe
Telus Optus
Fixed broadband and 5G FWA outlook 11
5G FWA connections as a percentage of households (end of 2025) and change between 2021 and 2025
18%
16
13%
12%
11% 11% 10%
11 11 10% 10% 10%
10
8% 8%
9 9 9 8%
8 8 7% 7% 7%
7% 6% 6%
7 7
5%
6 6 6 6 6
5 5 5 4% 4% 4% 4%
3% 3% 3%
4 4 4 4 3% 3% 3%
2% 2% 2%
3 3 3 3 3 3
2 2 2
Austria
Bahrain
US
Australia
Philippines
UK
Germany
Italy
Saudi Arabia
Finland
UAE
Switzerland
Thailand
South Africa
New Zealand
Qatar
Kuwait
Poland
Latvia
Ireland
Israel
Bulgaria
Maldives
Croatia
Oman
Trinidad &
Tobago
Peru
Czechia
Canada
Colombia
Brazil
Norway
Connections as a percentage of households Change (percentage points)
Note: markets where 5G FWA household penetration will remain at 1% or less in 2025 have been excluded. Source GSMA Intelligence
Fixed broadband and 5G FWA outlook 12
45% 55%
40%
See the Europe, US and Latin America report
40%
30% See the Southeast Asia report
• Where new ducts need to be built by the • 5G FWA is cost-effective where the cost of • A hybrid strategy of providing subscribers
operator to deploy fibre cables, 5G mmWave building the underground or overground fibre further away from site locations with
FWA is cost-effective at high levels of infrastructure is above $25,000, $25,000, outdoor CPE and the remainder with self-
market share and busy hour share. $35,000 and $50,000 per kilometre in mounted, indoor CPE could improve cost
Southeast Asia and Latin America, Europe savings in rural towns, urban areas and
• Where new aerial poles need to be built
and the US respectively and market share suburban areas by 10 to 15 percentage
by the operator to deploy fibre cables, 5G
below 50% in rural towns, 30% in suburban points versus standard self-mounted indoor
mmWave FWA can be cost-effective at
areas and 15% in urban areas. CPE, depending on the region.
moderate levels of market share.
• Assuming civil works costs are above • Self-mounted, high-power indoor CPE that
• Where ducts or poles for fibre cables can be
$50,000, $50,000, $70,000 and $100,000 does not require a truck roll could improve
rented or shared, 5G mmWave FWA is cost-
per kilometre in Southeast Asia, Latin cost savings in urban and suburban areas by
effective in urban and suburban areas at low
America, Europe and the US respectively, 15 to 20 percentage points.
levels of market share (e.g. assuming busy
5G FWA is cost-effective where market
hour share of traffic at 10% or less) • The use of shared outdoor CPE in multi-
share is below 30% in urban areas and 50%
dwelling buildings supporting up to 16
in suburban areas.
subscribers can also improve cost savings
in urban and suburban areas by 20 to 25
percentage points depending on the region.
The 5G FWA opportunity for MNOs 16
• Where new ducts or poles to deploy fibre • Where the cost of building the underground • Doubling spectrum assignments to 200 MHz
cables need to be built by the operator, or overground fibre infrastructure is $5,000, of 3.5 GHz and 800 MHz of mmWave
5G FWA is cost-effective at high levels of $10,000 and $25,000 per kilometre in spectrum, cost savings improve by 10 to
market share and busy hour share of traffic. Southeast Asia and Latin America, Europe 15 percentage points. Reducing spectrum
and the US respectively, 5G FWA is cost- assignments to 80 MHz of 3.5 GHz and
• Where ducts or poles for fibre cables can be
effective where market share is below 50% 200 MHz of mmWave spectrum reduces the
rented or shared, 5G FWA is cost-effective
in rural towns, 40% in suburban areas and 5G FWA cost savings, but 5G FWA can still
at low levels of market share.
30% in urban areas. deliver substantial cost savings where new
• If average data consumption grows more ducts/poles for fibre cables need to be built
• Assuming the MNO can avoid the cost of
that expected, FTTH is cost-effective where by the MNO.
in-premises wiring, 5G FWA is cost-effective
the busy hour share of traffic is above 10%
where civil works costs are above $5,000, • When doubling the 5G FWA performance
and market share is above 30%.
$10,000 and $20,000 in Southeast Asia requirements to at least 200 Mbps downlink
and Latin America, Europe and the US and 40 Mbps uplink, FTTH becomes cost
respectively, and market share is below effective where ducts/poles for fibre cables
30% in rural towns and 20% in urban and can be shared or rented.
suburban areas.
CONTENTS 1 Executive summary
10% 20%
See the Europe, US and Latin America report
• Where new ducts to deploy fibre cables • Assuming 30% market share, 5G FWA is • A hybrid strategy of providing subscribers
need to be built by the ISP, 5G FWA is cost- cost-effective versus FTTH where the cost further away from site locations with
effective at high levels of market share and of building the underlying overground or outdoor CPE and the remainder with self-
busy hour share of traffic. underground fibre infrastructure is (for mounted, indoor CPE can improve cost
instance) above $25,000, $30,000, $45,000 savings by 30 to 35 percentage points
• Where new aerial poles to deploy fibre
and $50,000 per kilometre in rural and versus standard self-mounted, indoor CPE
cables need to be built by the ISP, 5G
suburban areas in Southeast Asia, Latin only, in rural, urban and suburban areas,
FWA is cost-effective in Latin America and
America, Europe and the US respectively. depending on the region.
Southeast Asia at low levels of market share.
In urban areas, it is cost effective where the
• Self-mounted, high-power indoor CPE could
cost of building the underlying overground
improve cost savings in urban and suburban
or underground fibre infrastructure is above
areas by up to 35 percentage points,
$30,000, $50,000, $60,000 and $75,000
depending on the region.
per kilometre in Southeast Asia, Latin
America, Europe and the US respectively. • The use of shared outdoor CPE in multi-
dwelling buildings supporting up to 16
• Assuming the cost of building the
subscribers can improve cost savings in
underlying overground or underground
urban and suburban areas by up to 40
fibre infrastructure is above $100,000 per
percentage points, depending on the region.
kilometre, 5G FWA is cost effective at any
level of market share in any scenario.
The 5G FWA opportunity for ISPs 21
The 5G FWA opportunity The 5G FWA opportunity The 5G FWA opportunity The 5G FWA opportunity The 5G FWA opportunity
Disrupting the broadband market A TCO model for a 5G mmWave A TCO model for a 5G FWA network using A TCO model for an ISP deploying a A scenario for Southeast Asia
FWA network mid-band plus mmWave greenfield 5G mmWave FWA network
Copyright © 2021 – GSMA Intelligence Copyright © 2022 – GSMA Intelligence Copyright © 2022 – GSMA Intelligence Copyright © 2022 – GSMA Intelligence Copyright © 2022 – GSMA Intelligence
The 5G FWA opportunity: The 5G FWA opportunity: The 5G FWA opportunity: The 5G FWA opportunity: The 5G FWA opportunity:
Disrupting the broadband A TCO model for a 5G A TCO model for a 5G FWA A TCO model for an ISP A scenario for
market mmWave FWA network network using mid‑band deploying a greenfield 5G Southeast Asia
plus mmWave mmWave FWA network
The 5G FWA opportunity for ISPs 22
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