International Journal of River Basin Management

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Delineation of surface water using MODIS satellite

image for flood forecast in the Mekong River basin

Vo Quang Minh & Huynh Thi Thu Huong

To cite this article: Vo Quang Minh & Huynh Thi Thu Huong (2022): Delineation of surface water
using MODIS satellite image for flood forecast in the Mekong River basin, International Journal of
River Basin Management, DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2022.2101467

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2022.2101467

Published online: 02 Aug 2022.

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INTL. J. RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT
https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2022.2101467

Delineation of surface water using MODIS satellite image for flood forecast in the
Mekong River basin
Vo Quang Minh and Huynh Thi Thu Huong
Land Resources Department, Can tho University, Can tho, Viet Nam

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Many studies forecast floods using models, but these methods require a lot of hydro-meteorological Received 25 February 2022
data and complex cycle calculations. With the rich source of satellite images and the perfection of the Accepted 10 July 2022
technique, it is possible to effectively monitor and forecast floods and natural disasters. The study’s
KEYWORDS
objective is to monitor the status of the flood situation in the Mekong River Basin using satellite EVI; forecast; flood; lSWI
images. The study used MODIS images at 8-day temporal and 500-meter spatial resolution.
Consider a mixed pixel object as the surface water. If the EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) and
LSWI (Land Surface Water Index) are < 0.1, then it remains submerged for an extended time. As a
flood, if EVI > 0.1 but < 0.3. The classification of continuous flooded areas as long-term inundated
objects, with the flood and mixed pixels and water-related pixels with a flood duration > 180 days.
There was a high correlation between EVI and LSWI. Risk flood maps are the foundation for
delineating a flood forecasting approach during the flood season. The precision is 91 percent. This
low-cost weekly flood forecasting system provided a new method for disaster early warning
utilizing satellite images.

1. Introduction
Climate change has generated many large floods, which
occur upstream in the Mekong River Delta. The annual
flooding is the main factor impacting the region’s ecosystem
(Sakamoto et al., 2007). Because it is only a few feet above sea
level, the Mekong Delta is always at risk of flooding. Floods
occur yearly, usually during the rainy season. Flood water
pushed downstream by the Mekong River, high intensity
localized rainfall over a short period, tidal floods caused by
storms and high tides, and human action are the four critical
components of this flooding. The information shows that
natural disasters have substantially impacted the lives of resi-
dents in the Mekong Delta (Dasgupta et al., 2009).
Flooding lasting more than 3 months causes severe dis-
ruption to socio-economic activities. Although the flood
peak was lower than in 2000, the prolonged inundation
affected the lives of 2 million people and caused economic
losses (Le Anh Tuan et al., 2007). The historic flood in
2000 involved people, which caused financial losses in the
Mekong Delta region.
According to MARD (2016), it is forecasted that global cli-
mate change significantly changes the natural environment,
the economy, and society in the Mekong Delta by 2060. For
example, much of the Mekong Delta flooded as sea levels
rise, which is already inundated yearly, resulting in the loss
of much agricultural land. As a result, the flood water is
higher. In addition, flooding is longer than before, so drainage
in the rainy season also becomes difficult. Therefore, the auth-
orities in charge of hydro-meteorological forecasting must
have practical solutions to forecast the possibility of floods
to avoid or limit damage to people and properties.
Many studies have applied flood forecasting models in the
Mekong Delta. Still, these methods and monitoring models
require a lot of hydro-meteorological data and complex
cycle calculations, flow direction, and upstream flood. There-
fore, hydro-meteorological forecasting agencies need practi-
cal solutions and forecast the possibility of flooding to avoid
or limit the damage to people and property. Currently, many
studies apply flood forecasting models in the Mekong Delta.
However, these monitoring methods and models require
complex data, calculation, flow cycle, flow direction, and
upstream flood. Remote sensing image technology is one
technique that can help monitor and enhance flood forecasts.
They use NASA’s multi-spectral and temporal MODIS
remote sensing combined with the DEM (Digital Elevation
Model). Therefore, it can help monitor the flood situation
for natural resources or disaster prediction in the study area.
Instead, a technique that can make monitoring and
enhancing flood forecasting simpler is remote sensing
image technology. The interest and utility of remote sensing
data have often been demonstrated throughout the many
stages of the flood management process (Malinowski et al.,
2017; Rahman & Di, 2017; and Li et al., 2016). By giving a
general perspective of the situation without coming into con-
tact with the flooded area and enabling the decision-makers
to monitor the water extent during the disaster (Ouled Sgha-
ier et al., 2018). The MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging
Spectroradiometers) sensors are located on the TERRA and
AQUA satellites. It provides daily data with a wide range
of widely used spectrum channels that can provide infor-
mation about the earth’s surface for some time (The United
States Geological Survey, 2021). Significantly, the level of
detail of the results from remote sensing images is shown
in the whole area and is more effective than those measured
at the monitoring point. Therefore, remote sensing can be an
effective alternative for floods and the natural environment.
However, the traditional measurement methods are applied
from current meteorological stations.

CONTACT Vo Quang Minh vqminh@ctu.edu.vn Land Resources Department, Can tho University, 3/2 Street, Ninh Kieu Ward, Can tho, Viet Nam
© 2022 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research
2 V. Q. MINH AND H. T. T. HUONG

This study aims to (1) evaluate the multi-temporal 3. Data collection

MODIS satellite images for flood monitoring and (2) provide
3.1. Collection data of multi-temporal MODIS/TERRA
practical strategies for using the remote sensing data to assist
images
flood forecasting in the Mekong River Delta .
The study used MODIS/TERRA surface reflectance 8-day L3
global 500 m Sin Grid GRID V005 (MOD09) images, the tem-
2. Methods poral resolution at 8 days, and the spatial resolution at 500 m.
2.1. Study area The satellite images were gathered from the NASA’s-
Earth Observation Data System (EOS, 2006) from early
The lower Mekong basin, which includes parts of Thai- 2009 to middle 2011 at https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/.
land, Laos, Cambodia, and Viet Nam, makes up more The EVI, LSWI, and DVEL indexes use MODIS images’
than 77 percent of the 795,000 km2 that the Mekong bands, including Band 1 (RED), Band 2 (NIR), Band 3
River basin drains (Figure 1). The Mekong River is the (BLUE), and Band 6 (SWIR).
tenth-largest river in terms of total flow and the twelfth-
longest river in the world (Vietnam National Mekong
Committee, 2022). 3.2. Collection data of Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
The lower Mekong basin delta, which is in the Southern-
The DEM (Digital Elevation Model) is applied to identify the
most part of Vietnam and is located between latitudes 8°30’
Mekong river systems flow direction and flows on the com-
and 11°North and 104°30’ and 107°East, was the primary
plex of the study area topography.
focus of the study. Vietnam’s Mekong Delta includes the
The study collected DEM data from the Centre of Earth
provinces of Long An; Tien Giang; Ben Tre; Dong Thap;
Data Analysis ERSDAC (http://www.gdem.aster.ersdac.or.
Vinh Long; An Giang; Can Tho; Hau Giang; Soc Trang;
jp/) by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry
Ca Mau; Bac Lieu; Kien Giang; and Tra Vinh. It is bordered
(METI) and the Agency National Aeronautics and Space
on the North by the Vietnam–Cambodia border, the South
Administration of USA (NASA).
by the East Sea, the West by Kien Giang Bay, and the East
The model calculates the river flow based on elevation,
by the Vam Co river (Le Sam, 1996).
slope, and direction indicators. The Mekong River downstream
According to Le Anh Tuan (1996), the length of the
area includes part of the territory of the two countries of Viet-
mainstream of the Mekong River is 4,350 km, and the
nam and Cambodia. The satellite images with a resolution of
total annual flow is approximately 500 billion m3 of
60m×60 m, helping to confirm the results of MODIS satellite
water. From the Tibetan plateau at an altitude of 5,000
image interpretation on the direction of movement of floods,
m above sea level, the Mekong River flows mainly from
serve as an essential basis for forecasting flood trends over time.
North to South. Still, when reaching the Mekong Delta,
it turns in the direction. The river flows through many
areas with different geological and geographical features,
4. Delineation of flood maps
which are very complex, shown in sudden changes. The
monsoon climate of the region influences the flow regime Sakamoto et al. (2007) described to use of the flood assessment
of the Mekong River: flood-causing flows appear in the approach to delineate the flood maps in the following stages:
rainy season and low flows in the dry season. The basin Stage 1. Detects and removes pixels covered by clouds.
of the Mekong River can be divided into three different The pixel is clouded if the EVI value is less than 0.2.
segments according to the descending height of the ladder, Stage 2. For surface water detection, calculate and evaluate
including upstream, midstream, and downstream. EVI, LSWI, and DVEL values.

Figure 1. Lower Basin of Mekong Delta River.


Thenkabail et al. (2005) and Xiao et al. (2006) recommend
pixels without flood as EVI > 0.3. Assume EVI = 0.05 and
LSWI = 0.0, then the pixel is flood-water.
Stage 3: Identify water bodies and flood long-term sub-
merged or mixed vegetation.
After classifying the objects with mixed pixels as flood or
long-term submerged, consider a flood pixel if the pixel
related-water has an EVI< 0.1; if EVI > 0.1 but <0.3. The
definition of composite is the water-related pixel. The separ-
ation of continuous flooded areas from flood and mixed pix-
els and water-related pixels with a flood duration > 180 days
as long-term inundated objects.
The assessment approach to monitoring and predicting
the flooded occurrence is shown in Figure 2.
5. Methods of forecasting flood events
Figure 3 shows the strategy stages for forecasting floods in
the research area:
Stage 1: Determined an average increase (decrease) coeffi-
cient (k)
Based on the results of weekly inundated area interpret-
ation, the k coefficient is calculated as follows:
Area increase (decrease) in week 2 compared with week 1 (S2-1)
S2-1 = area of flood in week 2 – Area of flood in week
1.
The coefficient of week 1 (k1):
k1 = Area of flood risk week 1 / S2-1 = 0.02.
The precisely k1, k2,k3, … ,kn coefficients were calculated
from the interpretation of images from the flood seasons of
2009 and 2010.
Average increase (decrease) coefficient k = 0.02 was cho-
sen as the value with the highest frequency in the calculated
results k1, k2, k3, … ,kn.
Figure 2. The method of monitoring and predicting flood occurrence in the Mekong Delta using MODIS images.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT 3
The sign (+) corresponds to the period of the beginning of
the flood. The sign (-) corresponds to the period of ending
the flood season.
Stage 2: Calculation of the forecasted flooded extent.
The formula to estimate the flood forecast area is as
follows:
Propose flood forecasts areas = The currently flooded
areas + k * The area at risk of flooding.
Stage 3: Correlation analysis for the relation with the stat-
istical data.
The study analyzed the current flood to predict the fol-
lowing week’s situation. The interpreted image results are
diagnosed with the digital elevation model’s slope and flow
direction data (DEM). The hydro-meteorological data and
DEM elevation forecast the severity of flooding in the com-
ing week. The flooding findings from the prior week were
confirmed and utilized to project the following week. With
the help of the interpretation of the most recent pictures,
the flooding danger is identified. It was combined with the
hydro-meteorological data sources and proposed flood fore-
casts for the next week.
The steps are repeated for each image acquisition until the
flood season ends.
6. Results and discussion
6.1. The spatial distribution of flooding
By combining images based on classifying objects, the EVI,
LSWI, and DVEL, the study predicted the indexes for the
spatial distribution of flooding during 2009, 2010, and
2011 (Figure 4). Comparing the flooded area over the
years shows the flooding direction, which is a basis for esti-
mating when the flooded area begins (flood occurs) and
reaches the maximum level. (peak flood), Moreover, when
the flood starts to decrease (flood recedes). There have
been floods in the upstream provinces of the study area
4 V. Q. MINH AND H. T. T. HUONG
Figure 3. The method of forecasting floods in the Mekong Delta.
since July 20th, 2009, August 21st, 2010, and August 05th,
2011. After August 05th, 2011, there was much rain in
the Central and Mekong Delta, and the Mekong River
had high tides. It caused many floods. It peaked in the
first few weeks of October 2009. For 2010, this time was
from the end of October to November. In 2011, the flood
increased rapidly and peaked at the end of October. In
2009 and 2010, it began to recede in the last week of
November or early December. By the end of December,
the flood has wholly reduced.
Figure 4. The flooding in the Mekong Delta over the years.
For the downstream area in the North of Cambodia, the
flood starts to return earlier because it is the area that directly
receives rainwater with a large amount. A large part of the
water is from Upper Laos. Still, because the terrain here is
relatively high and dangerous, the river bed is very high.
Because it is deep and narrow, the spatial distribution or
the submerged surface area does not change much. Only
when the flood reaches the area with relatively flat terrain
and widespread flood water will the water surface area
change and make a big difference.

Figure 5. The changing of water surface areas in the Mekong Delta over the years.
Changing the flooded area in the lower Mekong River:
Figure 5 illustrates how the water surface distribution of
flood commencement dates varies from year to year. Floods
have changed in timing and location; the water surface area
during the dry season is about 10,000km2. Floods start chan-
ging around July, but flood levels vary year to year. While the
2010 flood season was less severe than 2009, the 2011 flood
season was more severe. For example, in the Mekong
Delta, the 2009 surge began about July 20th and ended
around December 01st. From early July to late December,
the total inundated area was 460,254km2. It was
317,053km2 in 2010, and 248,643km2 in 2011. The flooding
season begins in September and lasts until late October.
The spatial distribution of flooding: According to Figure 5,
and 6 the onset of the flood in 2009 was earlier than in 2010. In
2011 floods started appearing mainly along the Hau and Tien
rivers. Similar to 2009. However, flood distribution is wider in
the Western coastal areas. Therefore, the onset of floods in
2011 was earlier than in 2010. The findings were comparable
to Keisuke Hoshikawa et al. (2016). They found a considerable
rise in flood ranking in areas near high-dyke development.
Figure 6 shows that the flood cycle over the years rep-
resents the inundation time determined based on the starting
Figure 6. The changing of water surface area in the difference Mekong Delta provinces over the years.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT 5
and ending date of the flood in study areas. For large floods
like 2009, the flood start time is earlier than 2010, and the
end time is also later. Therefore, prolonged inundation
causes difficulties in water drainage and affects the timetable
for sowing and sowing rice. On the other hand, the flood in
2011 had a reasonably early start and ended later than in
2010. Most Mekong Delta provinces had a higher flood
area in 2009 than in 2010 and 2011. The upstream regions
in the North and Northwest of the Mekong Delta always
have relatively high flood areas. These provinces have a
large total flooded area because they have a low-lying region
located in the area. Dong Thap Muoi and Long Xuyen Quad-
rangle are mostly acid soils, constantly watered. Because of
the low-lying terrain, it is difficult to drain water. Therefore,
flood water flows to these areas first in the flood season, and
when the flood recedes, it is the slowest withdrawal area.
7. The comparison of the interpreted and
observed results
Figure 7a and b show a good match between the water’s sur-
face in the An Giang province and the water depth level in
Tan Chau and Chau Doc stations. The determination factors
6 V. Q. MINH AND H. T. T. HUONG

Figure 7. The correlation between flooded area and actual water level measured at Tan Chau (a) and Chau Doc (b) stations, and the correla.

reveal R2 = 0.94 (a) and 0.95 (b) (2011). Thus, a high R2 8. The prediction of flood occurrence
coefficient of determination indicates a good correlation
The implementation procedure is separated into different
between the interpretation and the statistics. So it is even
prediction periods from July 04th, 2011, to September
more important to measure inundation depth in the study
30th, 2011, matching 11 verification results. The correlation
region at any given time.
between the predicted flood stages and the water surface area
The data collected from the reported results reveal a
(km2), analyzed from the MODIS image simultaneously in
significant association between the flooded area inter-
the study’s same research area, is necessary to evaluate the
preted from the MODIS image and the inundated area
reliability of interpreted results. Besides, it is also essential
interpreted from the MODIS image. It means the applica-
to assess the degree of deviation of the forecast compared
bility of MODIS images for flood studies and other pur-
with the actual result to make the reliability assessment result
poses such as monitoring the change of crop structure
more accurate and comprehensive.
during the year, the progress of rice seeding in agricul-
The correlation coefficiency and deviation between the
tural production, and forest fire monitoring and
predicted and the actual flood area are shown in Figure 7c.
management.
The coefficient of the correlations between projected and
Starting, Ending, and time duration of flooding: In 2009,
the actual-flooded regions derived from MODIS images is
the total flood area from the beginning of the flood season
quite strong (The R2 value is 0.91). Besides, the relation
to September 30th in the An Giang province was 13,143
between water surface areas and predicted stages is also
km2, the Dong Thap province was 14,063 km2, and the
shown in Figure 7d. It clearly shows the changing water sur-
Long An province was 8,395 km2. This area decreased
face area, closely related to the average surface area following
much in the 2010 flood season and increased in 2011. Specifi-
the flooding. It indicates that the forecasting method from
cally, at the same time, the flooded areas of the Dong Thap
MODIS images mixed with other data delivers relatively
and An Giang provinces were higher than those in 2009.
accurate results on flood evolution Tables 1 and 2.
In this result, the flood cycle of years is the length of the
flood based on the flooding dates of start and end. Starting
and ending times for a large flood like 2009 are both differ- Table 1. The information of MODIS data used in the study area.
ent from the 2010 flood. On the other hand, long-term Band Wavelength (µm) Bandwidth (µm) Resolution (m)
flooding causes problems with water drainage and changes 1 0.620–0.670 0.050 250
2 0.841–0.876 0.035 250
the sowing schedule. Much land flooded in 2011 because 3 0.459–0.479 0.020 500
the flood started early and was thought to end later than 6 1.628–1.652 0.024 500
in 2010. (http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov)

Table 2. The formula of EVI, LSWI, and DVEL indices use MODIS images’ bands.
EVI (Enhanced NIR − RED Xiao et al.
Vegetation Index) EVI = 2.5∗ (2002)
NIR + 6∗RED − 7.5∗BLUE + 1)
LSWI (Land Surface NIR − SWIR Xiao et al.
LSWI =
Water Index) NIR + SWIR (2005,
2006)
DVEL (Difference DVEL = EVI – LSWI
Value between
EVI and LSWI)
9. Conclusion
The MODIS remote sensing images (MOD09) show promis-
ing applications. First, there was a closed relationship between
predicted and statistical data of floods in the lower Mekong
Delta. Furthermore, the accuracy of the prediction results is
very high, indicating the use of MOD09 images for long-
term monitoring and forecasting floods over a large area.
Additionally, there was a strong association between the
land surface water index (LSWI) and the Enhanced Plant
Index (EVI). Establishing risk maps during the flood season
is the basis for developing the warning method. With an accu-
racy of approximately 91 percent, this flood forecast approach
offered a new avenue for environmental disaster study by uti-
lizing the low-cost resource of a satellite image.
With the broad coverage of MODIS images and the aver-
age resolution of 500 m, it is possible to study and monitor
flood events on a large national and territorial scale. In
addition, the image has a temporal resolution of 8 days
and is quickly updated. Therefore, it is convenient to study
and monitor flood progress. Furthermore, the image data
source is provided directly and weekly by NASA. Conse-
quently, it is possible to monitor and predict floods and
describe their progress over time by combining weekly
meteorological data from stations with flow direction simu-
lation from DEM.
The proposed strategy indicated estimating the prob-
ability of flooding for one week. However, with the rich
source of MODIS images and the perfection of the method,
it is possible to use monitoring and forecasting floods and
natural disasters effectively.
Acknowledgments
The study acknowledges the projects of Improvement Project VN14-P6
(financed by a Japanese ODA loan) of Cantho University, the annual
fund of the Ministry of Education, VLIR (CTU-Belgium) Project, and
the Science and Technology Department of Provinces.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
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