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A Data Selection Methodology to Train Linear Regression Model to Predict

Bitcoin Price

Conference Paper · November 2020

DOI: 10.1109/ICAICT51780.2020.9333525

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2nd ICAICT, 28-29 November 2020, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
A Data Selection Methodology to Train Linear
Regression Model to Predict Bitcoin Price
Mohammad Ali
Computer Science and Engineering
United International University
Dhaka, Bangladesh
ali.khulna@gmail.com
Abstract—Bitcoin is the most popular and valuable
cryptocurrency in the financial market which attracts traders
for investment and opens new research opportunities for
researchers. Many research works have been done on bitcoin
price prediction with different machine learning prediction
algorithms. Researchers take relevant features from the
dataset which have strong correlation with bitcoin prices and
select random data chunks to train and test their model.
Randomly selected data to train the model, may cause
inappropriate results and reduce the accuracy of price
prediction. In this paper, we investigate a proper data selection
method to train a prediction model. We apply our proposed
methodology to train a simple linear regression prediction
algorithm. We predict bitcoin price for 7 days with the linear
regression model. When we train the linear regression model
with an appropriate data chunk identified by our
methodologies, we find acceptable results for the prediction.
The percentage error method is applied for error calculation
which finds the accuracy is 96.97%. In the end of this
manuscript, we conclude our work with future improvements.
Keywords— Bitcoin, Training Data Selection, Price
Prediction, Linear Regression
I. INTRODUCTION
Blockchain is the new era of technology and
cryptocurrency is one example of blockchain technology in
the financial sector. There are various cryptocurrencies
currently using as payment methods such as Bitcoin, Ripple,
Litecoin, etc. of which Bitcoin is the most popular and most
traded [1][5][7]. Bitcoin is a pair-to-pair, decentralized
cryptocurrency which has no central bank or authority to
control [8][9]. Users of the bitcoin network use a
cryptographic hash function which makes the bitcoin
network immutable, secured and trusted [6]. Unlike the
traditional stock market, Bitcoin price can depend on
previous historical data as well as sentiments of users of the
bitcoin network [1]. Therefore, a proper analysis is suggested
for traders before buying, selling, and investing in bitcoin as
the analysis used in the stock market might not be helpful for
analyzing bitcoin [2].
In recent years, various researches have been conducted
on the bitcoin price prediction. Many researchers use
different machine learning approaches for cryptocurrency
price forecasting which is emerging as a prominent research
area day by day. Investors take help from these prediction
models to know the effective time to invest money on
bitcoins, precisely, time to buy or sell the bitcoins [2][8].
Researchers use different types of machine learning
algorithms to make their prediction model such as Long
978-0-7381-2323-3/20/$31.00 ©2020 IEEE
330
Swakkhar Shatabda
Computer Science and Engineering
United International University
Dhaka, Bangladesh
swakkhar@cse.uiu.ac.bd
Short-Term Memory (LSTM) [1][2][4][8][9][19],
Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) [2], Gated Recurrent
Unit (GRU) [2], Artificial Neural Network (ANN) [3][16],
Hidden Markov Model [4], Multi-linear Regression Model
[5], Bayesian Neural Network (BNNs) [6], Root Mean
Squared Error (RMSE) [7], Linear Regression[8],
Polynomial Regression [8], Recurrent Neural Network
(RNN) [8][10], Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA) [13] [18] etc.
Bitcoin price prediction models are dependent on various
blockchain statistics [1], economic factors, and external-
sentimental factors [2]. Researchers select important
blockchain statistics such as block size[6][9], number of
transactions [6][9], median confirmation time[6], hash
rate[6][9], transections per block [9], mining difficulty [7],
cost of transaction [6][9], miner revenue, confirmed
transactions, the total number of unique Bitcoin, Average
Confirmation Time, Number of unique addresses, total
Bitcoin, difficulty to find a block, market capitalization, and
number of Orphaned Blocks [9]. Some bitcoin economic
factors such as closing price, trading volume, volatility [1],
opening and closing price [2][7][9], highest and lowest price
[2][7] have impact on those models as well. Researchers also
try to find correlation between human sentiments analyzed
form Google trend [1][6][8][11], Reddit [1], Twitter
[1][2][5][8][9][10][16], and Wikipedia [6][11].
Researchers usually first select the dataset, then pick
relevant features from the dataset which are appropriate for
their model. After developing the model, researchers use a
chunk of data to train their model and another chunk of data
test their model with different error finding algorithms [9]
[12] [14] [19]. But there is no clear explanation of which
portion of data has to be selected to train the model, which
portion of training data gives the best training model with
high prediction accuracy. In this paper, we answer the
question. We find that bitcoin price fluctuates more because
it depends on various blockchain statistical, economical, and
external factors. So, we propose a conceptual model with the
help of traditional trading algorithms to figure out which data
portion might give accurate results while training the model.
After the data selection, we made a simple prediction model
with linear regression, trained the model with selected data
chunks and predicted the following 7 days' bitcoin price.
The remaining paper is organized in different sections.
Section 2 describes the most recent literature review on
bitcoin price prediction approaches. Section 3 focuses on the
problem statement. Section 4 defines some key
methodologies used in the paper. Section 5 contains the
procedure of our proposed model. Detailed implementation
steps are presented in section 6. Experiment results are
described in section 7. Finally, the conclusion and future
recommendations will be discussed in section 8.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
Two categories of research papers have been found after
reviewing recent bitcoin price prediction related manuscripts.
First category of papers focuses to build bitcoin prediction
models based on cryptographic and financial properties of
data with the help of machine learning algorithms. Another
category of papers focuses to build bitcoin prediction models
with cryptographic and financial properties of data then
analysis human sentiments to find correlations on bitcoin’s
predicted price.
Lun et al. study different blockchain’s statistical data and
impact factors with LSTM based prediction model to predict
bitcoin’s future price. Their selected dataset reflects market
statistics such as daily bitcoin price, volume, and volatility;
blockchain statistics such as liveness and number of active
nodes; social media trends from google search trend, reddit
post trend, and twitter followers [1].
Apoorva et al. use three deep learning algorithms for a
comparative study to find out the impact of socio-economic
factors on bitcoin prices. They collect data, prepares it, and
analyze with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long
Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units
(GRU). A comparison with RMS values is shown to evaluate
these algorithms. They conclude that there is no correlation
between the gold price and bitcoin price but they found a
positive correlation between twitter posts and bitcoin price
[2].
Emad and Emel examine feed-forward Artificial Neural
Network algorithm with Back Propagation on
cryptocurrency’s closing price to predict its future price.
They also apply the same algorithm to forecast traditional
stock exchange prices and find that cryptocurrency’s price is
more complex to be predicted than stock exchange prices.
Researchers also investigate reasons and found some
external factors such as different natures, popularity, and
crypto-culture for that complexity [3].
Imran et al. present a novel framework for bitcoin price
prediction using Hidden Markov Model and Optimized
LSTM Networks that shows efficiency compared to
traditional time series forecasting modeling techniques,
ARIMA, as well as a conventional LSTM [4].
Arti et al. project a methodology to predict the price of
two cryptocurrencies based on social factors. They use a
multi-layer regression model to predict the price of Bitcoin
and Litecoin and use twitter data to analyze the sentiments.
They analyze each tweet and examine its state, positive,
negative, or neutral. Finally, they figured out the relation
between those tweets and the average price of bitcoin [5].
Huisu and Jaewook choose relevant features that involve
in supply and demand of cryptocurrencies. They analyze
those features with Bayesian Neural Networks to predict the
future price. They compare their analysis with different input
sizes and other models such as Linear Model and Support
Vector Regression Model [6].
Sean et al. find that bitcoin’s prices show high volatility
due to the lack of seasonality. For this kind of nature,
331
Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short-Term
Memory (LSTM) algorithms are more suitable to predict
bitcoin’s price. Researchers apply RNN and LSTM on the
closing price of bitcoin and conclude different price
comparisons with the confusion matrix [7].
Aditi et al. investigate to find the correlation between
bitcoin’s price with twitter and google search trends. Their
investigation shows when negative news are published about
Bitcoin, people sell it, and when positive news are published,
people buy it. Researchers apply Linear Regression,
Polynomial Regression, Recurrent Neural Network, and
Long Short-Term Memory to analyze the data [8].
Pavitra et al. select important features from blockchain’s
information that has impacts on Bitcoin’s supply and
demand. They apply those features and twitter sentimental
data to train their Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model.
They used 70% of data with 100 epochs to train their LSTM
model and 30% of testing data shows that their model finds
50% accurate price on the volatile market [9].
Dibakar et al. analyze the sentiments in twitter data and
find its relation with bitcoin’s price. They use Recurrent
Neural Network (RNN) to analyze those data and find
overall price prediction accuracy is 77.62% [10].
Bohdan selects bitcoin’s important features such as
measurement of supply and demand, number of active
investors, number of blocks created recently, and mining
process. Researcher also selects human sentimental data
analysis from twitter and wikipedia page. Finally, a
regression predictive model develops to analyze those
features with social sentimental data [11].
Karunya et al. take a dataset with open, high, low, and
closing price value of bitcoin, analyze the data set with two
machine learning algorithms called decision tree and
regression model to predict the future price of bitcoin.
Researchers conclude their work by comparing the accuracy
of price prediction between those models. [12]
Shaily et al. analyze four years of bitcoin closing prices
by applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA), Autoregressive Model (AM), and Moving
Average (MA) to forecast bitcoin’s future price. Finally,
researchers compare the accuracy and find ARIMA gives
more accurate prediction results than AR and MA [13].
Muhammad Saad and Aziz find how various features of
bitcoin affect its pricing. They analyze those features with
different prediction models such as Linear Regression,
Random Forrest, and Gradient Descent to predict the future
price of bitcoin [14].
Edwin and Lipo use a genetic algorithm based Selective
Neural Network Ensemble and built a multilayer prediction
model to predict the next day’s bitcoin price change [15].
In the paper [17], a short-term prediction model is used
by using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA) on bitcoin prices.
Wu et al. use LSTM with Autoregressive Regression (AR
2) to make a model to forecast bitcoin prices. There proposed
model gives the best performance than the conventional
LSTM model [18].
Wang and Zang use Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural
Network to analyze the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and
Ripple. Researchers use four features, and 80% instances
form the dataset to train the model and rest 20% instances for
the testing [19].
III. PROBLEM STATEMENT
After the literature review, we can categorize some
common steps to predict the bitcoin price. First, researchers
identify relevant features from the dataset which have impact
on bitcoin price changes. Then, researchers select prediction
model. After that, a data portion is used to train the model
and another portion is used to test their model. Finally,
researchers compare, find errors, and observe the accuracy of
their model.
We observe a gap while selecting the data portion in the
training stage. No proper guideline has been found for
selecting the data to train any model. Inappropriate data
chunk selection may give inaccurate results even if we use
the best machine learning algorithm. For example, if we
observe a strong uptrend movement is going to happen for a
bitcoin, but we mistakenly choose previous data chunk from
a strong down trend then, the model could give poor results.
So, data selection for training a model is very important for
predicting bitcoin prices.
IV. KEY METHODOLOGY
In this paper, we use two financial indicators called
Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving
Average (EMA) for trend calculation. We also use two
financial key terms, Support and Resistance, for trend
confirmations. A simple prediction model called Linear
Regression is used for predicting bitcoin price.
A. Moving Average
Moving average is a statistical tool used on time series
data to smooth out short-term volatility and highlight short-
longer term patterns or cycles. The difference between short-
term and long-term depends on the different cases, and the
moving average parameters are set accordingly. In bitcoin
perspective, a simple moving average can be determined by
adding the closing prices for the last ‘N’ duration and then
dividing that amount by ‘N’ [20][21].
B. Exponential Moving Average
An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of
moving average (MA) that attaches a greater weight and
significance to the latest data points. EMA responds to recent
price changes more significantly than a simple moving
average (SMA), which applies an equal weight ‘K’ to all
observations in the period [22].
C. Linear Regression
An Linear regression is a simple regression model that
makes the relationship between two variables. One variable
is considered an explanatory variable and the other variable
332
is considered as dependent. The goal of a linear regression
model is to determine a linear model with loss function
which can be used for prediction of the price of bitcoin based
on the closing price [23].
D. Support and Resistance:
Support is a price level where a downtrend happens due
to a concentration of demand or buying interest that can be
expected to pause. As the price falls, demand for the bitcoin
rises, thus forming the line of support. On the other hand, the
resistance level happens after the uptrend of price due to the
concentration of supply or selling interest [24].
E. Percentage Error Rate:
Percentage error rate describes the difference between an
estimated or measured value and an actual or known value as
a percentage. In financial informatics, it is used to find the
difference between a measured or predicted value and a true
or exact value. Here's how to measure error rate, using an
example estimate [25].
V. PROPOSED MODEL
In the literature review section, we referred to different
machine learning mechanisms that have been used to predict
the bitcoin price. Researchers select different factors from
data and analyze those data to train their model. But there is
a gap while selecting instances for the training. No clear
guidance has been found upon literature review that
describes which portion of instances should be taken while
training the model to get accurate prediction results.
In our proposed model, first, we identify the trend of
bitcoin price by plotting Simple Moving Average (SMA) and
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the chart. After
plotting those two moving averages, we identify support
levels and resistance levels on the bitcoin price. We examine
the strong support and resistance levels by its number of
occurrences. The more support or resistance levels appear on
the price, the stronger the level is. We can also identify the
changes in trends by observing the crossovers of SMA and
EMA. Two perceptions can happen here:
A. Perception 1
If we see the uptrend price hit back from a strong
resistance level, at the same time SMA and EMA crossover
happens, the downtrend continues and breaks previous
resistance level, then we can assume a strong downtrend may
happen. In this scenario, we can set the SMA & EMA
crossover point as the starting point and set the ending point
where it confirms a strong downtrend for training-data
selection.
B. Perception 2
If we see the downtrend price hit back from a strong
support level, at the same time SMA and EMA crossover
happens, the uptrend continues and breaks previous support
level, then we can assume a strong uptrend may happen. In
this scenario, we can set the SMA & EMA crossover point as
Fig. 1. Bitcoin Price Changes during 2012- 2020
the starting point and set the ending point where it confirms a
strong uptrend for training-data selection.
We take that chunk of data to train our Linear Regression
Model to predict bitcoin price.
VI. IMPLEMENTATION
A. Data Collection:
Bitcoin historical data is taken from Kaggle which
represents bitcoin price in US Dollars. The dataset has 1
minute’s data from 2014-12-01 to 2020-04-22 that equals
4363457 rows or instances and it has 8 columns or features.
These columns are Timestamp, Open, High, Low, Close,
Volume_(BTC), Volume_(Currency), and Weighted Price
[26].
B. Data Pruning:
Our model uses the simple linear regression model to
predict the bitcoin price and we only use the closing price of
the bitcoin concerning days therefore, we delete the other 6
columns from the dataset. Some data instances have missing
values, so we also remove those instances/rows.
C. Data Conversion:
Since we need the price for respective days but the
dataset has only timestamps, so we convert these timestamp
Fig. 2. Bitcoin Price in Days during September, 2019 – February, 2020
333
Fig. 3. Linear Regression Model on 15 days’ data
values to date and time format. After the conversion, we find
an average price for a specific day from these 1 minute’s
data.
D. Data Extraction:
We plot all daily bitcoin prices starting from December
2014 to April 2020 on the chart and in “Fig. 1”, we observe
there is a long downtrend of price from mid of 2019 till
March, 2020. Recent historical prices reflect more on current
prices so, we make another dataset with the prices from
September 2019 to February 2020. Finally, we get a total of
182 days bitcoin closing prices showed in “Fig. 2”.
E. Plotting SMA & EMA and Identify Support & Resistance
Levels:
We plot Simple Moving Average and Exponential
Moving Average with the previous 5 days’ average price on
the chart showed in “Fig 2”. We can simply identify two
support levels and two resistance levels.
F. Observation for training data selection:
In “Fig. 2”, we observe a sharp downtrend from the
resistance level 1 and the price holds on the support level 1.
After a false break, price again goes to uptrend to resistance
level 2. From the resistance level 2, price breaks the previous
support level and hold on support level 2. Again, after a false
break, support level holds and the price goes to uptrend from
the support level 2 and passes previous support level 1 as
well as resistance level 2 and holds at previous resistance
level 1. After a couple of days, we observe the price passing
previous resistance level 2 and continues to a strong down
move that is also confirmed by SMA & EMA crossover.
G. Data selection:
1) Data Chunk 1
The observation has similarities with our perception 1.
We observe on the 167th day there is a SMA&EMA
crossover indicating the starting point of a downtrend.
Hence, we select the last 15 days' price to train our linear
regression model.
Fig. 4. Price Prediction Accuracy Rate for 7 days
2) Data Chunk 2
We also select another data chunk with the last 30 days’
price which has both uptrend and downtrend prices. The
second chunk of data doesn’t have any similarity with any of
our perceptions and we use this data to train our linear
regression model to compare accuracy and error.
H. Linear regression model training:
We train our linear regression model with the gradient
descent loss function where we use learning rate = 0.001 and
1000 epoch. After training with data chunk 1, we get a
simple linear regression line in “Fig. 3”. We predict the next
consecutive day’s price with the model, then we consider
that predicted price, train our model again and predict the
next day’s price. We follow the same mechanism 7 times to
get consecutive 7 days' bitcoin predicted price. We also
follow the same steps with data chunk 2.
VII. RESULT
A. Price Prediction & Error Calculation:
We find that the linear regression model trained with data
chunk 1 shows a higher prediction rate than data chunk 2.
The linear regression prediction model along with training
data chunk 1 selected by our proposed model gives
percentage error rate 3.03% which means the prediction
accuracy is 96.97%. Whereas, same linear regression
prediction model with randomly selected training data shows
prediction accuracy 55.11%. “Fig. 4” illustrates comparison
of price prediction accuracy rate for 7 days.
VIII. CONCLUSION & FUTURE WORK
In this paper, we propose a model that helps to determine
which data range should be taken to train a machine learning
334
prediction model. Researches show different approaches to
predict bitcoin price with the help of different machine
learning algorithms. However, there is a gap in
methodologies to answer the question of which data portion
should be taken to train the prediction model to obtain a
more accurate result. We use some financial methodologies
such as Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential
Moving Average (EMA), and two financial terminologies
such as Support level, Resistance level to build our model. A
Simple Linear Regression Prediction Model is trained with
our proposed data. We get accurate predictions by using the
data chunk proposed by our model than a random data
chunk. After training with proper data, we find that the
prediction accuracy of our Linear Regression Model is
96.97%.
Literature review shows that bitcoin price depends on
other cryptographic and social factors, so in the future, we
have to consider other factors before training the model. We
can use other machine learning prediction algorithms with
our proposed dataset and compare accuracy.
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