& OPTIMIZING THE PASTE FILL STRENGTH IN THE STOPE: A BAYESIAN NETWORK MODELLING APPROACH Kanhaiya Mishra’, C.N Ghosh’, P'S Paul’, Prashant’, S.K Behera’ and P. K. Mandal’ ‘'CSIR-Central Institute of Mining & Fuel Research, Dhanbad, Jharkhand, India Abstract: Mining activities are associated with a number of challenges such as the management of the huge amount of solid waste as well as of the large volume of underground and surface voids that results from mining. The use of paste technology is an alternate ef fective system to hydraulic backfill in underground mining. It effectively acts as a working platform as well as provides a _ground support, hence providing a safe work environment. Finally, paste backfilling provides an ef fective means of mine waste disposal. Once paste back fill material is poured intoa mine stope, itis subjected to strong coupled thermal (T), hydraulic(H), mechanical (M) and chemical (C) processes The pressure application, thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical factors can significantly influence the strength of paste backfill. The laboratory test results on strength assessment of paste fillare lim- ited since the influence of self-weight pressure, the heat of cement hydration, filling rate, drainage condition, stope dimension cannot be included in the strength assessment. The field performance of paste fill is usually site-specific, hence always associated with some uncertainties, If these uncer- tainties are ef ficiently modelled at a multivariate platform, then behaviour and strength gain of paste fillin stope at dif ferent periods of time could be effectively explained. A Bayesian network is a tool which ef fectively models the things which are uncertain in nature. In this study, the Bayesian network is constructed based on the expert's opinion and with the combination of Dempster- Sha- fer theory. The variables selected in this study are stope height to width ratio, curing period, curing temperature, tailing sulphate percentage, the water-to-cement ratio (WC), fineness percentage (F_P), pore water pressure, suction and blast vibration. The coupled ef fect of these ll variables on the strength gain by the fill material isto be evaluated. In addition, using the best joint strategy of thisnetwork, the most favourable combination of the variables could also be achieved for optimizing the field performance of paste fill, The outcome of the study will be useful for the development of ‘filling strategies by a better understanding of the parameters influencing the per formance of paste ‘fill. On the other hand, adoption of paste fill technique in Indian mining industry wil also help in providing a solution for the challenging task of environment friendly disposal of mine wastes such as fly ash and mill tailings. Keywords: pastefill, Bayesian network, uncertainties, strength assessment, Dempster-Shafer the- ory 738INTRODUCTION Mittisgendaislaivties generate ahuge amount of slid wastes inthe form of overburden, coal angue, Ay ash, mal tailings, slag et (Ritcey 2005; Fal etl, 2010), ‘The proper disposal of these wastes are of utmost im= portance to reduce their harsh geotechnical and environ ‘mental effects (Farkish and Fall 2013, Wu etal. 2013), ‘The most common soliton isto wtlze these wastes for backfling in mines, The paste backiling is compara- tively 2 new technology which overcomes all the prob- lems associated with conventional backfling techniques (all etal, 2010), Paste backfill contains between 70% and 85% solid (tallings + binder) by weight (Fall & Pokharel, 2010). Binders (Ordinary Portland Cement or sometimes cement + ash/slag) can represent up 0 75% of the cost of Cemented Paste Backfils (CPB). The main role of the binder agent is to provide enough cohesion and strength to the CPB to moet the mechanical design requirements of mine backfl system (Fall et al. 2007). To contain the Dacfill inthe stope, barricades are constructed across the stope access points, which ae usually located ache base of the stope (Helinki etal, 2014) The primary function of paste fli to provide efficient ground control and maxi- mize ore recovery (Celestan and Fall, 2009) Italo ats 25 4 working plate-form, reduces mining cycle time, elimi= nates segregation problems, provides less consumption of binder and water, control subsidence and fire improves ventilation and reduces oe dilution (Rankine et al, 2003; Li and Aubertin 2008). In addition to these, cemented paste backllin (CPB) is now considered s an indispens- able uilings management method (Fal etl, 2008). Although, cemented paste backfling has been imple- mented in various underground mining worldwide, but industries are stil ona learning path to effectively analyze the performance factors of CPB ast is comparatively new ‘technology (Fall eal, 2010). Once placed underground, CPB structure must be capable to remain stable during agjacent mining operation and provide stability to the round to ensure a safe working environment (Rankine tal. 2001; Fall eta, 2008; Fall and Benzazzoua, 2005), ‘The failure of fil Black not only causes financial losses the concerned industry in terms of production loss and arrangement for the further fling but also causes severe injuries to mankind (Helinski and Grice 2007; Yumlu and Guresci 2007). Hence itis imperative to understand the sfiect of varius factors and their interaction eects to ‘wards the stability of pastefill inthe stop. The Uniaxial Compressive Strength (UCS) is one ofthe most significant parameters used to asses the stability of CPB structure, as itis relatively quick 2nd inexpensive, thus can be used is ‘the regular quality control ofthe mines (Fall eta, 2008; Fall and Pokbarel 2010) The estimation of UCS at laboratory scale has numerous Arawbacks as the variows site-specific parameter coxld not be incorporated in the strength assessment. This often leads to conservative design, which means high costs of cement (high cement consumption), over-designed bar cade structure and long mine cycle times (Thompson et al, 2008). This is clearly associated with a reduction in the profitability ofthe mine To overcome these limitations the researchers have de~ ‘veloped several experimental sets upto simlate the mine stope conditions on the strength assesment (Ceestian and Fal, 2008; Méadmi etal, 2014; Aireza and Fal, 2015; Chen et, 2017), Ata time, these studies have considered the effect ofa single variable or coupled interaction be- teen two varables towards the output parameter such a8 strength gain. They could not conser the combined ef- fect of more than two variables ie, makivariable eect on the strength gain. Itcan be useful forthe better asessment and prediction of the mechanism plays a role beind the "rength gain, Multivariate analyse can be defined ss the statistical procedure for analysis of data considering more than one type of measurement or observation. fe may alo mean solving problems where more than one dependent ‘variable i analyzed simultaneously with other variables. Ince of pate filing, which is affected by many ste-spe= cific parameters, mulsvariate analysis can play a vital role in determining the influence of variables 38 well 38 sig- nifican interaction among them on the strength gain of fillblock. “The field performance of past fills usually site-speciti, and due 10 incomplete information about its behavior in the fed, it always associated with some uncertainties. A Bayesian network is tool which effectively models the things which are uncertain in nature, It works on the the- ory of epistemie uncertainty also known as subjective un~ cerainty or Type B’ uncertainty (Beven, 2016). Its ype ofthe uncertainty which results from a lack of knowledge shout asystem, The best joint strategy ofthe Bayesian net- ‘work gives the most favorable combination of the va ales which can be used to optimize the field strength of pastefill Hence, this study presents the Bayesian Network. (BN) Modeling Approach for analysis aswell as optimiza- tion ofthe strengt gan ofthe paste fil block, I, MATERIALS AND METHODS A. Variable ofthe study Inthe underground working, diferent variables playa di- recclindirect role behind the strength gain of CPL. The strength varies with curing days, cement content, wa= ter-cement ratio, Fineness content, sulphate concentration ‘tc, as proved in various laboratory studies (Fall & Pokba- rel, 2010; all et al, 2010; Yilmaz, 2017). The strength aso alfected by suction development, pore water pressure, blast vibration, curing conditions, geometry of the stope (ouch as depth, horizontal distance from discharge point) as demonstrated in various studies (Fall & Pokhael, 2010; Fall et al, 2010; Helinski et al, 2014; Alireza and Fall, 2015; Emad otal, 2014; Zeng etal, 2016; Abdella and ‘Ali, 2017; Chen et al, 2017) In tis study, the following 739variables have been selected to study their influence and interactions on the strength gain of paste il lock Height to width ratio of stope Caring period + Caring temperature Suction development Blast vibration water cement ratio (WC) ore-water pressure Sulphate percentage Fineness percentage (F_P) B Bayesian Networks Ns are powerful and flexible tools for graphically mod- elling the easalinterreationships among diferent vari- ables (Neapolitan, 2004; Jensen and Nielsen, 2008). The Bayesian network composed of qualitative and quantita- ‘ive pare (Fam etal, 2017). The st of various nodes and directed ares between them (forthe direction of relation~ ship) comes under the qualitative part. The graph should be constructed in such a way that a cyclic nature could not be formed; hence BN is leo called a directed acyslic graph (DAG). DAGs isa very effective tool in handling ‘the complex causal relationships among causal variables (itwasinkul etal, 2016). Tae conditional probability ta- bles (CPTS) that determine the quancty of exact relation- ships among variable, is the quantitative part of @ BN. Each nodes ofthe model can be divided into various sates. ‘Through conditional independence analysis, the probabil- lay of various states of anode according oa different con- figuration ofits parent states can be determined, Each BN can be shown by ordered pairs N = (G, pin which GLV,E) isa directed acyei graph (DAG) with a set of nodes V ~ (XX, Kyo X funda set of directed edges E and pis the join probability over the variables V which i calculated ‘sing following Equation Mes PGrenccm? POX Kay Kap wren Sactna ‘The BN can be constructed in two ways, fists the struc= ture learning algorithm and second isthe eliciting expert's opinion. The disadvantage of structure learning algorithm ie that cequires a huge data st for construction of net~ work. Hence, i is recommended by researchers to build Bayesian networks using the experts opinion (Martin et al, 2008; Fam et a, 2017; jivwasinkul et al, 2016). The seady of Rivas et al, (2007) shows that BN constructed with expert’ opinion gives slightly better results structure learning algorithm, The Figure 1 shows the common ex- ample of Bayesian network with various state. The direc- ‘ton of arrow shovrs the possible relationship between & pair of variables. fanaa: Figure : Example of Bayesian Network Mode ©. Constructing Bayesian Neeworks “The first sep in conducting a BN analysis isto build a fgrephical model that represents the interrelationship Among al the desired variables, The model should be in the form of directed acyclic graph. In this study, we con structed the desired Bayesian network based on eliciting expert opinion. The process of constructing BN given 25 fellows: ‘Two experts were selected and asked to specify a prob ability to each possible relationship beeween two pal of variables. Three possible relationships were defined between each pair of variables, The tree possible rela- tionship between two variables A and B can be defined as follows ‘The variable A directly affects B (A-+B) Variable B directly affects A (BA) No relationship between A and B {AtB) The two experts were asked to specify a probability for cach of these three possible relationships; the sum of thee specified probabilities must be equal tone In the next sep, the Dempster Shafer theory used to integrate the probability between cach pair of variables to reduce che inconsistencies (Fama etal, 2017). The fl- lowing equations are used to integrate the given prob- shies ma Y__trtonirnss omit ke (PsA) ——— Pd where, (A) = mass probability obtained for each relationship p,(A,) = probability assigned by expert °s” toa relation- sip K = conflict amount among information sources 1-K ~ normalizing factor 40 ®&+ The relationship that had che maximum mass value was adopted to represent the relationship benween two procedure adopted in thie study to construct the BN for a particular paste fil tope is shown in Table 1. The procedure can be described with following example; the Felationship beeween two variables namely as water 0 cement ratio (W_C) and fineness percentage (P_) is ex- planed by two experts as follows: Expert 1- | W_C-+F_P- 03, FP WC 06, WCTF P= Od} and Expert 2 [W_C>F-P- 05, FP > W_C03, WC1FP- 02), integrated mass probability fr each relationship be- tween variables i shown in Table I TABLE 1 CALCULATION OF INTEGRATED MASS PROBA: ‘he most influencing variable (the variable which is show- ing the largest proportion of variance) towards the fil strength, The best joint strategy af the model gives most favoured interaction of various nodes for optimising the strength of paste fil, Figure 2 shows the BN constructed based on the expert’ opinion, ‘arta fea Es ra | ae fen Ber PRIARECey® [MRE ey? eae eS witonctamind Paha K=00%+ 03+ 005+ 003+ 006+012-065 Peal 9200428 pa Soste Fae = 0.058 ‘Te results show thatthe mass probability valu i 0.514 (amaximum) for the second ease. Accordingly, the relation ship between these two variables ie, water to cement ratio and fineness percentage ib = F_P-> W_C. In the same ‘way, the relationships between all pairs of variables have been quantified .Data Collection and Analysis Techniques BN constructed by exper’ opinion is shown in Fig tare 2, Sul the data collection has not been completed, hence analysis and interpretation of model is not per formed, Based on the avaablity of data, each node willbe further classified into variows states a8 shown in Figore 1 The sensitivity analysis ofthe BN can he used to identify eae rr wer = oar re Cm i. Ia eS | cea a “ (Ye ias| \ | anew ie ty Figure 2BN Constructed by Expert’ Opinion I. CONCLUSION The advantage of BNs is that we can update our belief shout the phenomenon at any stage by adding orremoving the variables from the model, Unlike the diserete analysis, it divides the dataset into different ranges called “tater hence, 8 mos favoured combination of diferent nodes towards output can be obtained case-wise, Therefore for each specific scenario, whatever the output parameter Viz UGS, Barricade sires, thermal conductivity, hydraulic conductivity et they can be optimised and thei influ- fencing variables can be controled up tothe possible ex: tent. For this ease, among the influencing Variables, the ‘most significant influencing variable could be obtained as well the most effective interaction among variables ‘ould be achieved, The outcome ofthe study wil be wseful for the development of filling strategies by better under- standing ofthe parameters influencing the performance of pase filREFERENCES u ei bl nm 8) 1 po) my 12 p31 A Farkish and M, Fal, Rapid dewatering of oilsands ature fine tailings using super abiorbet polymer,” ‘Miner Eng, Vol 50 p. 38-47, 201, B, Jinwasinkl, H.W. B, Hadikusumo, A. Q. Memon, “A Bayesian Belief Network model of organizational actors for insproving safe work behaviors in Tha onstruction industry,” Safety Science, Vol. 82, pp 264-273,2016. AD. Thompson, MW. Grabinsky and WF. Bawden, “Instu measurements of cemented paste Bacfil in long-hoe stpe” In Proceedings ofthe 3rd CANUS rock mechanics symposium, Toronto, 2003. D. Wu, M, Fall and SJ. 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