Urbanisation and Climate

Change in Nigeria
Loren Schmidt, Juan Pablo Vélez
 Overview 1. Cities: General Context.

Is a changing environment 2. Urbanisation in Sub-Saharan

leading to increased Africa.
urbanisation in developing
countries?
3. Urbanisation and climate change
in Nigeria.

4. Study case: Lagos, a Mega-City.

The Economist, 2016. Lagos, Nigeria..

Cities: General Context
An urbanised world...

● 4.3 billion people, 56.2% of the global

population, now live in cities.

● 59% live in towns and cities of less than 1

million inhabitants. Only 13% live in
megacities (>10 million).

● 96% of urban growth will occur in East

Asia, South Asia and Africa with three
countries—India, China and
Nigeria—accounting for 35 % of the total
increase in global urban population
from 2018 to 2050.

Source: UN, 2020.

How do cities grow?

1. Natural growth.

2. Rural-urban migration.

3. Spatial expansion of urban

settlements through annexation or
urban sprawl.

4. Reclassification of rural areas.

Photograph: Richard Ellis. Mexico City, 2013. .

Urbanisation and migration
● Migration is one of the main
factors driving the global increase
in urbanization.
● Currently, there are 763 million
internal migrants and 272 million
Source: FAO, South Sudan, 2017.
international migrants in the
world. One in every seven people
on the planet is a migrant.
● International migration accounts
for about one-third of urban
growth in developed countries.

Source: UN, 2020. Source: Yawar Nazir, 2020.

Urbanisation and climate change
● Although urban areas cover just 2%
of global land area, cities generate
70% of global carbon emissions and
consume two-thirds of the world’s
energy.
● 40% of the population lives in
coastal cities, and are at risk from
sea-level rise.
● The effects of climate change can
exacerbate urban challenges.
Source. UN Habitat. Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2020.
Source: UN, 2020.
 Urbanisation and Climate
Change in Sub-Saharan Africa
Urbanisation in
Sub-Saharan Africa
- While Sub-Saharan Africa is
comparatively late to
urbanisation, it is now the most
rapidly urbanising region in the
world.
- The number of people living in
urban areas in Sub-Saharan Africa
will double to more than 1 billion
by 2042, according to the World
Bank.
- More than 80% of that growth is
set to occur in cities - especially
slums and peri urban areas.
- There is a significant amount of
discourse regarding whether this
rapid urbanisation is a good or
bad thing.
Possible Outcomes of Urban Proliferation
Optimistic View:
Sustained population growth will drive
innovation, employment, and ultimately
economic development of the region, even
going so far as to overtake China as the world’s
manufacturing center.
Pessimistic View:
Sustained population growth could overwhelm
the region’s cities if left unplanned, resulting in
negative political, economic, and environmental
impacts.
What is causing urbanisation in the region?
1. Organic Population Growth
a. In Sub-Saharan Africa, this is driven by high fertility rates.
b. “Youth Bulge”: About 70% of the continent is under 30.
2. In-Migration From Rural Areas
a. Push Factors: rural conflict, environmental degradation and hazards, and resource shortages
b. Pull Factors: economic opportunities, employment, better connectivity, access to essential
services and education
3. Cross-Border Labor Migration
The Nexus of Climate Change and African Urbanisation
- Urban migration provides an escape from declining agricultural productivity
and rural poverty. So, while pull factors present as economic, it is critical to
consider the full context:
- In Sub-Saharan Africa, climate change will lead to a loss of up to 15% in predicted agricultural yield
by 2050, and up to 47% by 2090, (Henderson et al., 2017).
- While climate change is undoubtedly changing the landscape of rural life in
Sub-Saharan Africa, the vulnerability of these populations is exacerbated by
the failure of socio-economic and political structures and equitable access to
resources.
- Thus, urban migration is made inevitable not by climate change but its nexus
with situations that exacerbate vulnerability.
Urban Growth in Nigeria
Urban Nigeria in context...

● Nigeria is the most populous country

and has the largest economy in Africa.

● Population: 206,139,587 inhabitants - Source: The Carbon Brief, 2020.

52% is urban (World Bank, 2020).

● Annual urban population growth rate:

4.1%, one of the highest in the world
(WB, 2020).

Source: World Bank, 2020; The Carbon Brief, 2020.

Source: Urbanet, 2018.
Cities in Nigeria
● 40 of Nigeria‘s cities have a population
between 300,000 and 1 million inhabitants.

Source: Shuttershock, 2020. Old Lagos City, Nigeria.

● There are 9 medium-sized cities of a

population ranging between one and five
million.

● Only one urban settlement with 10 million

or more inhabitants - a Mega-city.

Source: Urbanet, 2018..

 Urban growth in Nigeria
● Nigeria is considered a late urbanizer, “currently
in the accelerated stage of its urban transition and
is projected to enter the terminal stage by 2030”.
(Farrell, 2018).

● Urban natural population increase has been the

dominant component of urban growth in Nigeria.

● Focusing on rural-urban migration as the

dominant cause of urban growth could be a
‘mismatch’ (Farrell, 2018; Bloch et al., 2015).

Source: K4D, 2019; Farrell, 2018; Bloch et al., 2015. Source: BBC, 2020.
What about climate change?
● Temperatures in Nigeria have risen by around 1.6°C, higher
than the global average, causing extreme heatwaves in the
North and constant flooding in the South of the country.

● 70% of Nigerians rely on agriculture as its primary source of Source: BBC, 2020.
income. This sector has been significantly affected by climate
change.

● Climate change exacerbates already existing vulnerabilities

mainly in rural Nigeria.

● Climate refugees?

Source: The Carbon Brief, 2020; UN Habitat, 2020. Source: Rolling Stone, 2017. Lagos, Nigeria.
Lagos: The African
Mega-City
Setting the Scene: Lagos
- Lagos is the largest city in Africa.
- Between 2010 and 2030, it is estimated that 77 people
will move to Lagos every hour – making it one of the
fastest growing cities in the world.
- Lagos is the industrial, commercial and business hub
of Nigeria which contributed about 35.6% to the
national GDP in 2010.
- Despite this, the poverty rate of Lagos is one of the
highest in the world; According to UNDP (2003), 51%
of the male and 54% of the female residents in Lagos
are poor and live in shanties.
- Population growth in Lagos has exposed the failure
of existing development frameworks, infrastructure,
institutions and public service delivery.
Reality of Climate Change in Lagos
- “Flooding, sea level rise, storm surge, high
temperature, and high rainfall intensity constitute
the notable hazards and high vulnerability levels
which are shaped by Lagos’ high population
density, large poor population, low lying
topography, and coastal location” (Elias &
Omojola, 2015).
- These hazards have negative implications in terms
of:
- Water and Sanitation/Waste Management
- Heat Hazards
- Public Health
Lagos’ Response to Climate Change
- Lagos State’s joined the C40 Large Cities Climate Leadership network since 2007
- This culminated in the formation of a climate change unit within the state’s Ministry of Environment.
- Annual Climate Change Summit
- Climate change adaptation efforts:
- Urban renewal programs and climate-sensitive infrastructure provisions
- Climate change adaptation policy (2012–2014) subject to review every 3 years
- State focus on institutional strengthening for supporting climate agendas
- Mitigation activities:
- Waste reduction and management policies and private sector partnerships
- Urban tree planting
- Green economy and entrepreneurial activities such as improved mobility and mass transit infrastructures
Flaws in Lagos’ Climate Interventions
1. Lack of engagement with local government and communities
- may be ascribed to their inadequate funding, manpower and staff capacity that limits their
ability to participate
- Non-governmental organization and the private sector are only tangentially involved
- limits their potential contributions to adaptation
2. Lack of a well-coordinated program that fully recognizes key stakeholders and their
roles
Concluding
Thoughts
References
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Farrell, Kyle. (2018). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of Nigeria’s Rapid Urban Transition. Urban Forum (2018) 29:277–298

K4D. (2019). Urban Expansion in Nigeria.

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