Macroeconomy Research

August 20, 2018

Charting China Macro Weekly

Activity growth on the weak side; adj. TSF saw sequential acceleration
August 13–17, 2018
Weekly high-frequency data pulse check
Overall speaking, activity indicators showed weak momentum last week.
IPP daily coal consumption growth slowed to -3.1% YoY. Utilization rates of Eva YI
coal & semi-steel tire mfg. fell, while that of steel picked up; so did rebar Analyst
SAC Reg. No.: S0080515050001
profit margin. The transaction volume of construction steel edged up and
SFC CE Ref: AMH263
the inventory level edged down. Property transaction volume was largely eva.yi@cicc.com.cn
stable, while land transaction volume fell sequentially.
Wenqi LIU
Agricultural product prices picked up; commodity prices remained Analyst
relatively stable. Among domestic commodities, prices of non-ferrous SAC Reg. No.: S0080517080001
SFC CE Ref: BIU684
metals declined, but prices of steel, coal, and chemical products remained
wenqi.liu@cicc.com.cn
stable. Meanwhile, global oil prices edged down and BDIY climbed.
Hong LIANG
Interbank liquidity conditions stayed accommodative. Treasury bond Analyst
yields remained stable, while corporate bond yields edged up; credit SAC Reg. No.: S0080513050005
spreads were largely flat. Bond issuance picked up. CNY exchange rate SFC CE Ref: AJD293
hong.liang@cicc.com.cn
weakened. The PBoC injected Rmb296.5bn liquidity last week; interbank
liquidity conditions remained loose—7-day repo rates climbed but
discounted bill rates trended down further. Bond issuance picked up
visibly—net issuance of treasury & local govt bonds reached Rmb112.2bn &
196.6bn, respectively; credit bond issuance accelerated as well. CNY
depreciated 0.4% vs. USD & 0.1% vs. the basket last week.
Review of main economic events in the past week
July fiscal revenue growth rebounded and expenditure growth slowed.
M2 growth and new loan issuance picked up; new TSF came in lower than
last July, but sequential growth of adj. TSF pick up. FAI and retail sales
growth declined; urban unemployment rate increased as well. FX
positions remained stable. July fiscal revenue growth rebounded from 3.5% Related reports
YoY in June to 6.1%; fiscal expenditure growth slowed from 7% YoY in June
to 3.3%; land sales revenue decelerated for a second consecutive month. • Macroeconomy | "Targeted" RRR cut helped boost
M2 growth picked up to 8.5% YoY from 8.0% in June; new loan issuance money multiplier, FX positions remained stable
(2018.08.17)
came in at Rmb1.45trn, higher than Rmb826bn in July 2017; new TSF came
in lower than last July, but sequential growth of adj. TSF rebounded to • Macroeconomy | Cyclical momentum softened
13.3% MoM annualized from 7.6% in June. IP growth stayed flat at 6.0% further in July (2018.08.14)

YoY; retail sales and FAI growth slowed from 9.0% and 5.7% YoY in June to • Macroeconomy | Sequential adj. TSF growth
8.8% and 3.0%, respectively. FX positions edged up Rmb10.8bn in July. recovered yet NSA continued to be a drag
(2018.08.14)
On the policy front: 1) State Council vowed to further promote the growth • Macroeconomy | Land sales revenue growth slowed
1
of private investment and private enterprise in general . 2) The Ministry of further (2018.08.13)
Finance unveiled a guideline to accelerate the issuance of special
(construction) bonds by local govt, and urged local authorities to complete
• Macroeconomy | PBoC to maintain ample liquidity in
2 face of rising challenges (2018.08.13)
at least 80% of the annual quota (of Rmb1.35trn) by the end of Sept.
The week ahead: key things to watch
July industrial enterprise financial data will be released on August 27.
We will monitor whether policy adjustments and lower rates can be
effectively translated to a pick-up in real economic activities; we will also
watch for signs of more proactive fiscal easing.
1
http://www.gov.cn/guowuyuan/2018-08/17/content_5314500.htm
2
http://www.xinhuanet.com/ttgg/2018-08/15/c_1123270190.htm

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 CICC Research: August 20, 2018

I. Weekly activity tracker

Figure 1: IPP coal consumption YoY growth slowed Figure 2: Steel capacity utilization edged up

% yoy Coal consumption of 6 largest power plants Blast furnace operating rate (from Mysteel)
120 %
88
100 August 13-17 August 6-10
86
YoY: -3.1% +0.9%
80
84
WoW: -3.3% -1.3%
60
82
40
80
20 78 August 13-17 August 6-10
0 ppt change, YoY: -8.4 ppt -9.3 ppt
76
ppt change, WoW: +0.7 ppt -0.6 ppt
-20 74

-40 Range for 2011-2016 2017 2018ytd 72

2016 2017 2018ytd
-60 70

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Mysteel, CICC Research

Figure 3: Steel production YoY growth edged down Figure 4: Overall rebar inventory level declined

% YoY Crude steel production growth 10 th ton Overall rebar inventory

35 1200
July 21-31 July 11-20 August 13-17 August 6-10
30
YoY: +3.9% +5.8%
25 1000 YoY: +5.6% +7.8%
20 WoW: -2.2% -0.8%
WoW: -0.3% -2.7%
15 800
10
5 600
0
-5 400
-10
-15 200
-20 Range for 2011-2016 2017 2018ytd Range for 2011-2016 2017 2018ytd

-25 0

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Mysteel, CICC Research

Figure 5: Rebar’s gross profit per tonne edged up Figure 6: Construction steel transaction volume edged up
Rmb/tonne Construction steel spot market transaction volume
th ton (weekly average)
1,900
250
1,700
Cash profit of steel processing, per tonne
1,500
1,300 200
1,100
900 150
700
500
100 August 13-17 August 6-10
300
100 2016 YoY: 2.5% 2.5%

-100 50 2017 WoW: 0.5% -1.3%

-300 2018ytd
-500
0

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Mysteel, CICC Research

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 CICC Research: August 20, 2018

Figure 7: Coal capacity utilization rate edged down Figure 8: Semi-steel tire enterprise capacity utilization rate
declined

Coking enterprise operating rate Semi-steel tire operating rate*

% %
90 85
August 13-17 August 6-10
ppt change, YoY: +0.6 ppt +1.0 ppt 75
85
ppt change, WoW: -0.3 ppt +1.3 ppt
65
80
2016
55
75 2017
2018ytd
45
70 August 13-17 August 6-10
ppt change, YoY: +3.6 ppt +6.8 ppt
35
65 ppt change, WoW: -1.8 ppt -0.9 ppt
2016 2017 2018ytd
25
60

* adjusted for Lunar New Year

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 9: Daily average retail sales volume of passenger cars Figure 10: Cement production utilization edged down
retreated sequentially; YoY growth remained weak

Daily average retail sales of passenger cars % Cement enterprise operation rate
No. 80
120000
2016 70
100000 2017
60
2018ytd
80000 50 2016
2017
40
60000 2018ytd
30 August 13-17 August 6-10
40000
ppt change, YoY: +2.2 ppt +3.7 ppt
20
August 4-10 August 1-3
ppt change, WoW: -0.8 ppt +0.4 ppt
20000
YoY: -14.3% -18.5% 10

WoW: -13.9% -30.3%

0 0

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Zhuo Chuang info, CICC Research

Figure 11: 30-city property transaction volume edged up… Figure 12: …property transaction volume YoY growth was
positive in tier-1 and tier-3 cities
30 medium/large cities property floor space sold 30 medium/large cities property floor space sold (weekly)*
mn sq meter % yoy chg
9 200
August 13-17 August 6-10
8 Tier-3*
YoY:
150
+6.0% +0.4% Tier-2*
7
WoW: +1.1% -9.5% 100 Tier-1*
6
50
5
0
4
-50
3
-100
2

1 2015 2016 2017 2018ytd -150

0
* adjusted for Lunar New Year
Tier-1 cities (4): Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen
Tier-2 cities (13): Tianjin, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan,Nanchang, Chengdu, Qingdao, Suzhou, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Changsha, Harbin, Changchun
Tier-3 cities (13): Wuxi, Dongguan, Kunming, Shijiazhuang, Huizhou, Baotou, Yangzhou, Anqing, Yueyang, Shaoguan, Nanning, Lanzhou, Jiangyin

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

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 CICC Research: August 20, 2018

Figure 13: 100-city land transaction volume declined from Figure 14: …volume declined in tier-3 cities
August 6 to 12…
100 medium/large cities land transaction volume 100 medium/large cities land transaction volume(weekly)*
mn sq meter % wow chg
40
August 6-12 July 30-August 5 1000
2015 Tier-3*
35 YoY: -19.8% -35.8%
2016 800 Tier-2*
30 WoW: -6.3% -26.6%
2017 Tier-1*
600
25 2018ytd
400
20
200
15
0
10
-200
5

0
* adjusted for Lunar New Year
Tier-1 cities (4): Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen
Tier-2 cities (26): Tianjin, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan, Changsha, Ji'nan, Qingdao, Ningbo, Suzhou, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Nanchang,
Zhengzhou, Hefei, Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun, Harbin, Chengdu, Xi'an, Taiyuan, Shijiazhuang, Zhuhai, Lanzhou, Hohhot

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

II. Weekly price indicators

Figure 15: Food prices continued to edge up Figure 16: Global oil prices edged down
% Ministry of Agriculture: food price index % USD/bbl
20 8 120
August. 13-17 August. 6-10 August. 13-17 August. 6-10
110
15 6 Brent YoY: +36.2% +39.8%
YoY: +2.6% +1.9% WoW:
100 -1.3% -0.5%
10 WoW: +1.4% +0.8% 4 YoY: +35.9% +39.2%
90 WTI
WoW: -2.5% -1.3%
5 2 80

0 0 70
60
-5 -2
50
-10 -4
40
-15 -6 30 WTI Brent
YoY growth WoW change (RHS)
-20 -8 20

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 17: Copper prices declined; rebar prices edged down Figure 18: Coal prices were largely stable in the past week
Commodities futures prices Rmb/ton
Rmb/ton Rmb/ton Rmb/ton
1900 August. 6-10
800
57000 August. 13-17
4300 August. 13-17 August. 6-10 Thermal coal YoY: +0.2% -1.0%
Copper YoY: -6.0% 54000 1700 WoW:
4000 -0.7% -0.3% +5.1% 700
WoW: -4.0% +1.3%
3700 Coking coal YoY: +17.0% +17.8%
Rebar YoY: +10.5% +8.3% 51000 1500 0 +0.3%
3400 WoW:
WoW: -0.2% +1.5%
48000 600
3100 1300
2800 45000
1100 500
2500 42000
2200 900
39000 400
1900
36000 700 Coking coal
1600
300
1300 Rebar Copper, right scale 33000 500
Thermal coal: 5500K, RHS
1000 30000
300 200

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

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 CICC Research: August 20, 2018

Figure 19: Cement prices edged up Figure 20: Urea price picked up

Cement price
% % Rmb/Ton
40 8 4000
August. 6-10 August. 13-17 August. 6-10
35 August. 13-17 7
Potassium Chloride: YoY: +125.7% +123.0%
30 YoY: +25.0% +23.9% 6 3500 +2.2%
WoW: 0
25 5 Urea: YoY: +28.8% +27.4%
WoW: +0.9% -1.2% +1.1%
20 4 WoW: +2.2%
3000
15 3
10 2
2500
5 1
0 0
2000
-5 -1
-10 YoY growth -2
-15 -3 1500
Week on week growth, Potassium Chloride Urea
-20 right scale -4
-25 -5 1000

Source: SCI99, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 21: Polyethylene and SBR prices edged down Figure 22: BDIY picked up in the past week

Rmb/Ton 3000
15000 40000
August. 13-17 August. 6-10 August. 13-17 August. 6-10
14500
Polyethylene: YoY: +104.7% +104.8% 35000 2500 BDIY YoY: +36.7% +48.6%
14000 -0.2%
WoW: +1.2%
13500 Styrene-butadiene rubber: YoY: -0.3% +10.7% 30000 WoW: +1.9% -4.6%
13000 WoW: -1.9% +0.3% 2000
12500 25000
12000 1500
20000
11500
11000 15000 1000
10500
10000 10000
500
9500 Polyethylene
5000
9000
Styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), right scale 0
8500 0

Source: SCI99, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

III. Weekly financial market movers

Figure 23: Treasury bond yield curve was largely stable Figure 24: AAA corporate bond yield curve shifted upward in
the past week…
%, p.a. Treasury yield curve %, p.a. AAA corporate bond yield (August.17, 2018) bps
4.5 4.9 24
WoW yield change, right scale
4.1 4.7 4.72
Bond yield 20
4.074
4.5
3.7 3.858
3.634 16
4.3 4.39
3.3
3.350 4.1 12
4.15
2.9
2.839 3.9
2018-08-17 8
2.5
3.7
3.72
2.1 2018-08-10 4
3.5
2.087
1.7 3.3 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 3 5 10
Term to maturity (years) term to maturity (years)

Source: CEIC, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

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 CICC Research: August 20, 2018

Figure 25: …so did the AA corporate yield curves Figure 26: Credit yield spreads remained largely stable

%, p.a. AA corporate bond yield (August.17, 2018) bps AA - AAA corporate bond yield
%
6.0 24
5.81 1.2
5.8 WoW yield change, right scale Bond yield 1.1 1Y 3Y
20
5.6 5.44 1.0
5.4 0.9
16
5.2 0.8
5.01
5.0 12 0.7
0.6
4.8
8 0.5
4.6 4.45
0.4
4.4
4 0.3
4.2 0.2
4.0 0
1 3 5 10
term to maturity (years)

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 27: Credit bond issuance accelerated Figure 28: Interbank CD issuing rates rebounded

Credit bond net issuance (by rating) % Interbank negotiable certificates of deposit
Rmb bn
150 6.0
AAA AA+ AA Under AA or no rating Yield to maturity (AAA+, 3M)
5.5
100 Average issuing rate (3M)
5.0
4.5
50
4.0

0 3.5
2.93%
3.0
2.50%
-50 2.5 Issuing rate Yield to maturity
WoW 35 bp 51 bp
2.0
Mtd -15 bp -38 bp
-100 1.5
2018/7/1
2018/3/4

2018/4/1
2018/4/8

2018/5/6

2018/6/3

2018/7/8

2018/8/5
2018/3/18
2018/2/25

2018/3/11

2018/3/25

2018/4/15
2018/4/22
2018/4/29

2018/5/13
2018/5/20
2018/5/27

2018/6/10
2018/6/17
2018/6/24

2018/7/15
2018/7/22
2018/7/29

2018/8/12
2018/8/19

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 29: Net issuance of interbank CDs rebounded Figure 30: Discount rates edged down further in the last week
sequentially
% Discount rate: 6-month banker's acceptance bill
Rmb bn Rmb bn
500 9500 8
Net issuance amount Closing stocks
400 Changjiang River Delta
August 13-19 Rmb 27 bn Rmb 9,140bn 7
300 August 6-12 9000 Change in the last week -5 bp
Rmb -125bn Rmb 9,112 bn
Mtd -35 bp
200 6
8500
100
5
0
8000
-100 4
-200 7500
3 3.05%
-300 Net issuance amount of interbank deposit
Outstanding balance, right scale
-400 7000 2

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: CEIC, CICC Research

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 CICC Research: August 20, 2018

Figure 31: Interbank liquidity conditions remained accomodative

Representative interest rates for China (as of August 17, 2018)
WMP
7 day 10Y Yu'eBao
3M 1Y treasury 1Y CDB 10Y CDB product
interbank treasury deposit
SHIBOR yield bond yield bond yield expected
repo yield rate
return
Average May-2005 1.10 n.a. 2.18 3.95 4.14 4.93 4.14 n.a.
Average Jan-2009 0.90 1.51 1.10 2.91 3.56 3.96 3.96 n.a.

September 1 2016 2.39 2.79 2.14 2.75 2.30 3.19 2.31 3.93

One year ago 4.02 4.34 3.37 3.59 3.69 4.27 3.88 4.79

One month ago 2.66 3.54 3.05 3.48 3.28 4.09 3.50 4.93

One week ago 2.27 2.80 2.76 3.56 2.89 4.12 3.34 4.80
Today 2.70 2.82 2.84 3.63 3.22 4.21 3.30 4.85

Source: CEIC, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 32: Onshore RMB daily trading volume declined in the Figure 33: CNY depreciated vis-a-vis the USD and the CFETS
past week basket last week
USD bn CNY trading volume in the onshore market Dec 31 2014=100 Rmb/US$
50 106 6.2
August 13-17 August 13-17 August 6-10
45 Weekly average
Weekly average US$ 28.7 bn CFETS basket CNY index WoW: -0.1% 0.2% 6.3
104
40 WoW change -0.6%
Monthly average CNY exchange rate WoW: -0.4% 0.1%
MoM change, August -3.3% 6.4
35 102
6.5
30
100 Means 6.6
25
CNY depreciate
20 6.7
98
15
6.8
10 96
6.9
5
94 CFETS basket CNY index
0
7.0
Spot CNY exchange rate, right scale
92 7.1

Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, CICC Research

IV. Monetary and fiscal policy trackers

Figure 34: 7-day interbank repo rate increased by 43 bps in Figure 35: PBoC injected RMB 297bn in the past week
the past week
%, p.a. Rmb bn PBoC's weekly liquidity injection/withdrawal* Rmb bn
14 2,000
PBoC's net injection
August 13-17 August 6-10
July : -8bn Gross
12 7-day interbank repo rate, 1,500 August :
43 bps -6 bps 127bn with-
WoW change
drawal
10 1,000 next
week
8 500
PBoC reverse repo rate, 7-day
297
0
6 7-day interbank repo rate
-130
-500
4
-1,000
2 Withdrawn Funds injected Net rejection

-1,500
0

* PBoC's monetary policy instruments include reverse repos, MLF, SLF, SLO, PSL, & treasury deposit dispersement

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

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Figure 36: CNY fixing rates came in stronger than the Figure 37: Issuance amount of local government bond picked
forecasts up last week
Rmb/US$ pips
Local government bond net issuance
7.0 400 300
Actual - Estimated, right scale Actual fixing Estimated fixing May 2018 June 2018 July 2018
c
August mtd 2018
Total issuance: 338 bn Total issuance: 391bn Total issuance: 653bn Total issuance: 236bn
6.9 300 250

6.8 means actual fixing 200

rate stronger than 200
the estimated rate 150
6.7
100 100
6.6
50
0
6.5
0
-100
6.4 -50
New issuance Replacement
6.3 -200 -100 Repayment of maturing bonds Unidentified
-150 Maturity Net issuance
6.2 -300

Source: Bloomberg, Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, China Bond, CICC Research

Figure 38: Bond issuance accelerated

Rmb bn Net bond issuance amount

470 Treasury bond Local government bond

Policy bank bond Urban construction bond
420
Corporate bond Stock exchange enterprise bond
370
320
270
220
170
120
70
20
-30
-80
-130
-180
2018/3/25
2018/4/1
2018/4/8
2018/4/15
2018/4/22
2018/4/29
2018/5/6
2018/5/13
2018/5/20
2018/5/27
2018/6/3
2018/6/10
2018/6/17
2018/6/24
2018/7/1
2018/7/8
2018/7/15
2018/7/22
2018/7/29
2018/8/5
2018/8/12
2018/8/19

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

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 CICC Research: August 20, 2018

Figure 39: China’s key economic indicators and forecasts

Monthly
2017/7 2017/8 2017/9 2017/10 2017/11 2017/12 2018/1 2018/2 2018/3 2018/4 2018/5 2018/6 2018/7 2017 2018E 2019E
Economic Growth
GDP Current Rmb bn - - 21,160 - - 23,458 - - 19,878 - - 22,018 - 82,712
GDP YoY % - - 6.8 - - 6.8 - - 6.8 - - 6.7 - 6.9 6.8 6.7
GDP QoQ (sa) % - - 1.8 - - 1.6 - - 1.4 - - 1.8 -
Nominal GDP
Nominal GDP YoY % - - 11.2 - - 11.1 - - 10.2 - - 9.8 - 11.2 9.7 9.4
GDP deflator YoY % - - 4.1 - - 4.0 - - 3.2 - - 2.9 - 4.1 2.8 2.5
Contribution to GDP Growth
Final Consumption Expenditure YTD ppt. - - 4.4 - - 4.1 - - 5.3 - - 5.3 - 4.1
Gross Capital Formation YTD ppt. - - 2.4 - - 2.2 - - 2.1 - - 2.1 - 2.2
Net Exports of Goods & Services YTD ppt. - - 0.1 - - 0.6 - - -0.6 - - -0.7 - 0.6
Inflation
CPI YoY % 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.5 2.9 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.6 2.0 2.2
Food CPI YoY % -1.1 -0.2 -1.4 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 -0.5 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 -1.4
Nonfood CPI YoY % 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3
PPI YoY % 5.5 6.3 6.9 6.9 5.8 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.1 3.4 4.1 4.7 4.6 6.3 3.0 1.9
PMI
PMI Index % 51.4 51.7 52.4 51.6 51.8 51.6 51.3 50.3 51.5 51.4 51.9 51.5 51.2
Caixin/Markit PMI Index % 51.1 51.6 51.0 51.0 50.8 51.5 51.5 51.6 51.0 51.1 51.1 51.0 50.8
Industry
Industrial Value-added YoY % 6.4 6.0 6.6 6.2 6.1 6.2 - - 6.0 7.0 6.8 6.0 6.0 6.6 6.5 6.3
Industrial Value-added MoM (sa) % 0.40 0.43 0.56 0.50 0.47 0.52 0.58 0.58 0.35 0.61 0.58 0.36 0.48
Profits of Industrial Enterprises
Total profits YoY, YTD % 21.2 21.6 22.8 23.3 21.9 21.0 - 16.1 11.6 15.0 16.5 17.2 21.0
Retail Sales
Retail sales YoY % 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.0 10.2 9.4 - - 10.1 9.4 8.5 9.0 8.8 10.2 9.8 10.2
Retail sales MoM (sa) % 0.76 0.82 0.89 0.79 0.76 0.67 0.58 0.65 0.71 0.66 0.29 0.73 0.67
Investment
FAI YoY, YTD % 8.3 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2 - 7.9 7.5 7.0 6.1 6.0 5.5 7.3
Manufacturing Investment YoY, YTD % 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.8 - 4.3 3.8 4.8 5.2 6.8 7.3 4.8
Infrastructure Investment YoY, YTD % 16.7 16.1 15.9 15.9 15.8 14.9 - 11.3 8.3 7.6 5.0 3.3 4.2 14.9
Real Estate Development Inv. YoY, YTD % 7.9 7.9 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.0 - 9.9 10.4 10.3 10.2 9.7 10.2 7.0
FAI MoM (sa) % 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.53 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.52 0.47 0.48 0.43
Real Estate
Sales amount of Commodity Buildings
YoY, YTD % 18.9 17.2 14.6 12.6 12.7 13.7 - 15.3 10.4 9.0 11.8 13.2 14.4 13.7
Sales volume of Commodity Buildings
YoY, YTD % 14.0 12.7 10.3 8.2 7.9 7.7 - 4.1 3.6 1.3 2.9 3.3 4.2 7.7
Area Newly-started YoY, YTD % 8.0 7.6 6.8 5.6 6.9 7.0 - 2.9 9.7 7.3 10.8 11.8 14.4 7.0
Area Under Construction YoY, YTD % 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.0 - 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0
External Trade and Investment
Exports YoY % 7.2 5.6 8.1 6.9 12.3 10.9 11.2 44.5 -2.7 12.6 12.6 11.2 12.2 10.8 13.1 9.0
Imports YoY % 11.0 13.5 18.6 17.2 17.7 4.5 36.9 6.2 14.4 21.5 26.0 14.1 27.3 18.7 18.2 7.0
Trade Surplus Current US$ bn 44.9 40.1 27.4 36.9 38.5 54.1 19.0 32.7 -5.3 28.3 24.9 41.6 28.1 423 384 462
FDI Current US$ bn 6.5 9.4 10.6 9.0 18.8 16.4 12.1 9.0 13.4 9.1 9.1 15.7 7.7 131
Balance of Payment
Current Account Balance US$ bn - - 34.3 - - 62.3 - - -28.2 - - 5.8 -
Capital and Financial Account Balance US$ bn - - 44.2 - - 36.5 - - 54.4 - - 18.1 -
Foreign Exchange Reserves Outstanding US$ bn 3080.7 3091.5 3108.5 3109.2 3119.3 3139.9 3161.5 3134.5 3142.8 3124.9 3110.6 3112.1 3117.9 3,140
Increment US$ bn 23.9 10.8 17.0 0.7 10.1 20.7 21.5 -27.0 8.3 -18.0 -14.2 1.5 5.8 129
Fiscal
Fiscal Revenue YoY % 11.4 7.7 13.3 5.7 -0.9 -4.3 - 15.0 8.4 10.1 9.7 3.5 6.1 8.1
Fiscal Expenditure YoY % 5.7 3.2 2.1 -5.9 -8.3 8.0 - 47.7 4.2 7.8 0.5 7.0 3.3 8.3
Fiscal Surplus/Deficit Current Rmb bn 296.0 -399.5 -753.2 511.2 -518.0 -1295.1 - -320.2 -794.2 377.7 62.8 -1121.7 351.7 -3,076
Monetary
M2 YoY % 8.9 8.6 9.0 8.9 9.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.0 8.5 8.2 8.5 8.2
M1 YoY % 15.3 14.0 14.0 13.0 12.7 11.8 15.0 8.5 7.1 7.2 6.0 6.6 5.1 11.8
M0 YoY % 6.1 6.5 7.2 6.3 5.7 3.4 -13.8 13.5 6.0 4.5 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.4
New Deposits Increment Rmb bn 816 1,360 433 1,060 1,570 -793 3,860 -301 1,510 535 1,300 2,100 1,030 13,519
New Loans Increment Rmb bn 826 1,090 1,270 663 1,120 584 2,900 839 1,120 1,180 1,150 1,840 1,450 13,523 1,530 1,610
Total social financing Increment Rmb bn 1,196 1,489 1,834 1,036 1,613 1,148 3,061 1,167 1,355 1,560 761 1,182 1,042 19,443
Change of Fiscal Deposits Increment Rmb bn 1,160 -390 -397 1,050 -38 -1,233 981 -529 -480 715 386 -685 935 568
PBoC's Foreign Exchange Increment Rmb bn -4.6 -0.8 0.8 2.1 2.4 -36.3 4.5 4.1 7.8 7.4 9.1 7.6 10.8 -464
Interest rates and RRR
1-year Deposit Rate End of Period % 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
1-year Lending Rate End of Period % 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
RRR End of Period % 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 17.0 17.0 17.0
Exchange Rates
RMB/US$, PBoC's fixing rate End of Period Rmb/US$ 6.73 6.60 6.64 6.64 6.60 6.53 6.33 6.33 6.29 6.34 6.41 6.62 6.82 6.53
RMB/US$, spot rate End of Period Rmb/US$ 6.73 6.59 6.65 6.63 6.61 6.51 6.29 6.33 6.28 6.33 6.41 6.62 6.81 6.51 6.38
NEER Current 2010=100 115.9 116.3 117.7 117.9 117.9 117.8 118.6 121.9 122.0 123.1 124.5 123.9 120.2
REER Current 2010=100 119.0 119.6 121.2 121.6 121.4 121.6 122.6 127.6 125.9 126.2 127.3 126.4 122.9

Source: NBS, General Administration of Customs, PBoC, SAFE, MoF, MoC, Markit, CEIC, Wind Info, CICC Research

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