Professional Documents
Culture Documents
October 2013
Analytics
Introduction
This paper contains hypothetical analysis and is
provided for illustrative purposes only. Nothing in this The concept of tracking error – a portfolio’s expected or realized statistical
paper is indicative of the past or future performance deviation from a benchmark return – is ubiquitous throughout the investment
of any PIMCO product. Analysis includes a section on
U.S. mutual funds, nothing in this paper is intended to management industry. From the beginnings of Modern Portfolio Theory
be an offer or a solicitation of any particular security, (Markowitz, 1952), to the advent of practitioner systems such as Barra in the
strategy or investment product. Funds mentioned
within are not offered by PIMCO or its affiliates 1980s (Rudd, 1988), to modern-day measures such as Conditional Value at Risk
and are offered by prospectus only.
(cVAR) (Ait-Sahalia and Lo, 1998) and extreme value theory benchmarked to different indices? In this paper, we attempt to
(Novak, 2011), investors and investment managers are take the Active Share debate beyond just its usefulness as a
continually devising methods for determining how closely predictor of performance. Using a mathematical model and
aligned their portfolios are to their respective benchmarks. simulation to motivate intuition, as well as empirical data to
Although tracking error is still considered the industry confirm the model results, we add to the dialogue by
standard, the measure known as Active Share (Cremers and formally linking together Active Share, manager style,
Petajisto, 2009) has garnered considerable interest in the and tracking error.
investment community in recent years. Unlike the tracking
Our paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we use
error calculation, which relies on the covariance matrix of asset
simulation-based portfolios to show how the interpretation of
returns, Active Share is significantly easier to measure,
Active Share is conditional upon the nature of the benchmark
requiring only two basic inputs: benchmark and portfolio
and manager style. Section 3 utilizes a set of simplifying
weights. Today, many consultants are producing Active Share
assumptions to show that mathematically Active Share can
measures in the evaluation of their managers, and
be considered as an alternative measure of a portfolio’s
investment managers themselves are increasingly utilizing
idiosyncratic risk. In Section 4, we use the Fama-French
Active Share in their communications with investors.3 Both
3-factor model to build style portfolios and show that the
Morningstar and Lipper have plans to make Active Share
relationship between Active Share and tracking error is highly
available to their users in 2013.4 As a result, the use of Active
dependent on both manager style and the level of risk in the
Share is becoming much more commonplace in the investment
marketplace. Finally, we present empirical evidence on Active
management industry.
Share and tracking error using a sample of some of the
In part, the gravitation toward Active Share has been a largest mutual funds benchmarked to domestic and
function of its simplicity. The formula’s lack of reliance on international indices.
variances and covariances, which can be challenging to
measure (Ledoit and Wolf, 2003), makes Active Share a Active share and benchmarks
particularly convenient tool for measuring the “activeness” Active Share measures the deviation in portfolio weights
of managers. Beyond its ease-of-use, however, Active Share from a benchmark as follows:
is often cited as a measure quantifying the “desirable”
component of tracking error. This interpretation follows from (1)
the original findings on Active Share, which showed that high
Active Share mutual funds have shown historically positive and
where wi is the weight of asset i in the portfolio, wbi is the
persistent alpha, whereas no direct link was found for tracking
weight of asset i in the benchmark, and N is the number of
error.5 Hence, at least empirically, managers who assume both
names in the superset of the benchmark and investment
high tracking error and high Active Share have on average
portfolio.6 For long-only, unleveraged portfolios, Active Share
outperformed their respective benchmarks.
is bounded between 0 and 100%, with zero representing an
Still, despite the well-documented findings in the historical index fund and 100% representing a portfolio holding all of
performance data, the jury remains out on precisely what its names outside of the benchmark.
Active Share measures. What does it mean for a portfolio to
The characteristics of a benchmark, such as the number of
have a “high” Active Share? What are the properties which
securities, can have a significant influence on the Active Share
determine a manager’s Active Share and what is the role of the
potential of a manager. Thus, in attempting to understand
benchmark? Can we compare the Active Shares of managers
the relationship between manager style and Active Share, it
Active Share
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
50 1.8% 2.6% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 6.6% 7.6% 8.6% 9.7% 10.7%
100 1.7% 2.1% 2.7% 3.4% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 6.2% 6.9% 7.7%
250 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 2.8% 3.2% 3.7% 4.1% 4.5% 5.0%
500 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8% 3.1% 3.4% 3.7%
Manager style, active share and tracking error TABLE 3 : MANAGER STYLES AND DESCRIPTIONS11
Table 3 describes general categories for four distinct types of investment
In the prior section, we derived the general relationship managers. Each manager style is designed to reflect varying degrees of
between Active Share and tracking error for the unconstrained systematic risk and Active Share. These manager definitions are subsequently
active manager who holds all assets in the benchmark. While utilized by simulating each style and assessing the relationship between
Active Share and ex-ante tracking error.
clearly not indicative of the manner in which active managers
invest in the real world, Equation 2 is useful because it provides Style category Description
intuition for the drivers of tracking error and how they relate to Pure Stock Picker Pure bottoms-up stock selection in the spirit of
(PSP) Graham and Dodd (1934). Do not consider the
Active Share. Arguably, what is of more interest to investors benchmark in their investment decisions. Portfolios
is the relationship between these variables for real-world are concentrated in a small number of names and
may contain large systematic tilts.
long-only, unleveraged investment portfolios. In this section,
we use the insights from the prior section’s theoretical results Pure Style Manager Only invests in broad systematic factors such as
to define broad categories of active management and then test (PSM) value stocks or economic sectors. Factor tilts may be
static or dynamic. Portfolios are typically diversified
how the relationship between Active Share and tracking error at the asset level.
relate to manager style, using real-world constraints.
Factor-Neutral Stock Bottoms-up stock selection within styles or factors.
We consider four types of equity managers: Pure Stock Pickers Picker (FNSP) Example would be a sector neutral manager who
focuses on his best ideas within a sector, but
(PSP), Pure Style Managers (PSM), Factor-Neutral Stock Pickers remains sector neutral at the portfolio level.
(FNSP), and Quasi-Indexers (QI). Table 3 summarizes each of
our manager categories. For each manager style, we generate Quasi-Indexer (QI) Explicitly or implicitly eliminates active factor bets.
Well-diversified at the asset level. Holds large
simulated portfolios to characteristically match the descriptions numbers positions and looks like the benchmark
in Table 3, while varying the level of concentration (Active in nearly all respects.
Share). For example, for the Pure Stock Pickers (PSP), we
created equally-weighted portfolios by maximizing the Once portfolios were generated for each style, we measured
portfolio’s expected return subject to a maximum position size the ex-ante tracking error of the portfolio using the 3-factor
and maximum number-of-names constraint. FNSP portfolios model. Because the relationship between Active Share and
are generated similarly to the PSPs, except we add an tracking error is conditional upon the level of market volatility,
additional constraint that each portfolio must be neutral to the we measured the relationship over three distinct market
benchmark with respect to the Fama-French 3-factor model. regimes. We define a market regime as being a ‘low’,
We provide a detailed description of the methodology for each ‘moderate’, or ‘high-risk’ market, based on the three-year
style in the Appendix. trailing average level of the CBOE VIX index.12 A 3-year
PSP 0–0.10 0.10–0.20 0.20–0.30 0.30–0.40 0.40–0.50 0.50–0.60 0.60–0.70 0.70–0.80 0.80–0.90 0.90–1
Low (2006) – – – – – 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 3.5% 5.4%
Mod (2004) – – – – – 4.3% 4.5% 4.7% 5.5% 8.1%
High (2010) – – – – – 3.9% 4.1% 4.6% 5.5% 8.6%
PSM 0–0.10 0.10–0.20 0.20–0.30 0.30–0.40 0.40–0.50 0.50–0.60 0.60–0.70 0.70–0.80 0.80–0.90 0.90–1
Low (2006) 0.3% 0.8% 1.7% 2.9% 4.1% – – – – –
Mod (2004) 0.6% 1.3% 2.5% 5.0% 6.9% – – – – –
High (2010) 0.6% 1.4% 3.4% 5.3% 7.2% – – – – –
FNSP 0–0.10 0.10–0.20 0.20–0.30 0.30–0.40 0.40–0.50 0.50–0.60 0.60–0.70 0.70–0.80 0.80–0.90 0.90–1
Low (2006) – – – – – 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.7% 4.5%
Mod (2004) – – – – – 2.0% 2.2% 2.7% 3.6% 5.9%
High (2010) – – – – – 2.3% 2.6% 3.2% 4.2% 6.9%
QI 0–0.10 0.10–0.20 0.20–0.30 0.30–0.40 0.40–0.50 0.50–0.60 0.60–0.70 0.70–0.80 0.80–0.90 0.90–1
Low (2006) 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% – – – – –
Mod (2004) 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% – – – – –
High (2010) 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.4% – – – – –
market risk. 65
60
As of As of As of As of
Dec ‘04 Dec ‘06 Dec ‘10 Dec ‘12
S&P 500 MSCI ACWI ex-US R2000
FIGURE 3: TRACKING ERROR FOR MUTUAL FUNDS BENCHMARKED TO S&P 500 BY VOLATILITY REGIME
Figure 3 shows the three-year realized tracking errors for managers benchmarked to the S&P 500 index. Consistent with the theoretical results in prior
sections, Figure 5 shows that manager tracking errors are positively related to the level of market volatility
Tracking errors by manager, by volatiltiy regime
25
20
15
10
0
American Funds BlackRock Oakmark Gateway Invesco Parnassus Equity Vanguard Growth Franklin Mutual TIAA-CREF Gabelli
Growth Fund Equity Fund Fund American Income Fund & Income Fund Beacon Fund Growth & Asset Fund
of America Dividend Fund Franchise Fund Income Fund
Fidelity Davis Fairholme JPMorgan U.S. Dreyfus Franklin Mutual ASTON/Montag Columbia First Eagle Mairs & Power
Contrafund New York Fund Large Cap Core Appreciation Shares Fund & Caldwell Large Core U.S. Value Fund Growth Fund
Venture Fund Plus Fund Fund Growth Fund Quantitative Fund
Dodge & Cox Longleaf Eaton Vance Hartford Selected MainStay BBH Hussman Strategic Prudential
Stock Fund Partners Fund Large Cap Dividend & Growth American Marketfield Fund Core Select Growth Fund Jennison Equity
Value Fund HLS Fund Shares Fund Income Fund
Moderate (2004) Low (2006) High (2010)
Hansberger International Fund 76% 3.3% 76% 2.7% 79% 5.2% 91% 4.5%
Manning & Napier Overseas Fund 99% – 95% 4.4% 94% 6.7% 92% 4.5%
Manning & Napier International Fund 85% 6.5% 84% 4.0% 88% 6.8% 89% 4.2%
Rainier International Discovery Fund – – – – – – 99% –
GMO International Intrinsic Value
– – – – – – 71% –
Extended Markets Fund
BNY Mellon International Equity
– – – – – – 89% –
Income Fund
Transamerica International Value
– – – – – – 85% –
Opportunities Fund
TABLE 5C: ACTIVE SHARES AND TRACKING ERROR FOR SELECTED LARGE MUTUAL FUNDS: RUSSELL 2000
31 Dec 2004 31 Dec 2006 31 Dec 2010 31 Dec 2012
Mutual Fund Active Tracking Active Tracking Active Tracking Active Tracking
Share Error Share Error Share Error Share Error
Neuberger Berman Genesis Fund 96% 9.5% 96% 7.5% 94% 10.6% 91% 6.8%
Royce Premier Fund 98% – 98% 6.0% 97% 8.1% 97% 5.6%
Longleaf Partners Small Cap Fund 100% 11.6% 99% 7.6% 99% 10.9% 99% 8.3%
Keeley Small Cap Value Fund 96% 8.6% 93% 7.5% 93% 10.5% 92% 4.4%
Gabelli Small Cap Growth Fund 92% 6.5% 92% 4.6% 89% 6.1% 86% 4.6%
TIAA-CREF Small Cap Equity Fund 52% – 65% 1.4% 68% 1.9% 78% 1.7%
Brown Capital Management-Small
99% 9.5% 99% 6.8% 98% 8.8% 98% 7.1%
Company Fund
Tocqueville Delafield Fund – 7.0% – 5.8% 99% 8.7% 98% 5.5%
Columbia Acorn USA Fund 97% 4.2% 94% 5.1% 90% 5.5% 93% 3.9%
Invesco Select Companies Fund 99% – 99% 7.5% 100% 8.7% 99% 6.4%
0.15
the benchmark – as of 12/31/10, 28% of the Fund’s holdings
Gateway Fund
were non-benchmark positions – it has a relatively high Active
0.10
Share, placing it to the right of the Galaxy Fund, but with
0.05 a similar ratio of tracking error to Active Share.
0 Conclusion
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
While in recent years much attention has been paid to the
Active Share
S&P 500 ACWI ex-US Russell 2000 relationship between Active Share and manager alpha, there
has been considerably less focus on how Active Share affects
Finally, we posited a conditional relationship between Active
portfolio tracking error. By utilizing simulation methods, we
Share and tracking error based on manager style. We showed
showed that Active Share must be placed within the context
that managers which focus on broad investment themes or
of a manager’s benchmark, since the number of benchmark
styles had the highest tracking errors per unit of Active Share.
positions has a material impact on Active Share metrics. We
While it is difficult to ascertain each manager’s distinct style
next showed that in a fully unconstrained framework, Active
based on just holdings and returns, we can still confirm the
Share only directly affects the idiosyncratic component of
overall effect of Active Share and tracking error using our
portfolio active risk. Because a high Active Share portfolio
manager data. Figure 4 shows the scatterplot between
can be designed to have either a low or high level of active
Active Share and tracking error for all of the managers in
13-1301_GBL