Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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“Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying,
sacrifice and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do.”
- Pelè
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INDEX
Module 1: Why Do Markets Move? 5
Module 1.1: Supply and Demand 6
Module 1.2: Hierarchy of Support and Resistance 8
Module 2: Reading a Price Chart 9
Module 2.1: Support, Resistance and Consolidation 11
Module 2.2: Dynamic Support and Resistance 15
Module 2.3: Trendlines and Channels 25
Module 3: Harmonics 26
Module 3.1: Flag Pattern 28
Module 3.2: Alert Flag 34
Module 4: Relative Strength Index 36
Module 5: Understanding Fibonacci 42
Module 7: Bat Pattern 53
Module 8: Cypher Pattern 59
Module 9: Common Mistakes for Patterns 65
Gartley Pattern Information Recap 68
Bat Pattern Information Recap 69
Cypher Pattern Information Recap 70
Crab Pattern Information Recap 71
Butterfly Pattern Information Recap 72
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Module 1: Why Do Markets Move?
Since prehistoric times, humankind bartered goods and services from each other. We’re talking
about 150,000 years ago and even then, commerce was already established. Even though they
had no form of currency, they had a basic demand and supply.
“If someone demanded food, he had to trade something for it or give his service
(going hunting for example) in order to get it. Centuries have passed but we’re
basically doing the same thing, but in a more complex way.”
The Forex Market exemplifies an imbalance in demand and supply. We are basically trading
currency contracts. Some traders buy and others sell, it is a really simple game of demand and
supply.
This topic may seem dry but we need to discuss this further because many professional traders
use demand and supply as a strategy.
In order to explain why markets move, we can use a really simple example. Let’s assume that
there are 3 traders: Trader A ,Trader B and Trader C.
If Trader A buys 1 standard lot, but Trader B and Trader C does nothing, the market will move up.
If Trader A buys 1 standard lot and Trader B sells 1 standard lot, the market will not move. It will
hold it’s position since supply nullifies demand.
If Trader A and Trader C buys 1 standard lot each (2 lots total), and Trader B sells 1 standard lot,
the market will move up because more lots are being bought than sold.
The contracts that traders buy and sell cause movements in the markets. Based on the volume
of these contracts, the markets will make wide or narrow moves. This fundamental concept is
important because successful traders often use this strategy.
Here at ElementaryFX, we do not use this strategy. However, we do use volume in our technical
analysis which is an essential part of supply and demand.
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Module 1.1: Supply and Demand
Supply and demand: the amount of goods and services (currency) that are available for people
to buy compared to the amount of goods and services that people want to buy if less of a
product than the public wants is produced. The law of supply and demand says that more can
be charged for the product.
Now that we have established the definition of Supply and Demand, let’s attempt to find out why
price sometimes does things like retracements and pullbacks.
So what are Supply and Demand zones? Basically, they are zones where traders are likely to set
their orders. You can find strong Supply and Demand zones in crucial points like Higher Highs,
Lower Lows or strong Support and Resistance zones from the past.
“Basically, Supply and Demand is the reason why we have Support and Resistance
zones. It is a process and a common behaviour among all traders.”
Let’s have a look at the image on the left. Like we
discussed earlier, these zones can often be found
near higher highs, and resistance zones. In this
chart we can see 2 points: A and B.
A is a Higher High, while B is a strong resistance
zone. This can be established because price
retested B, respected and rejected it before making
its way downwards.
Note: the more a zone is tested, the weaker it becomes. Sooner or later, that zone will be broken
and price will pierce through it.
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Zones are used by traders to identify potential areas for entry by setting limit or stop orders.
These zones are not just used to place our orders, but also to help us identify market behaviour.
By breaking through point A, price makes an intention that it wants to rise towards the next level
of resistance.
Simply said, there are more buyers than sellers in the market. Remember, trading is just a simple
game of Supply and Demand.
In order to penetrate that zone, price has to gain strength, and the best way to do that is to
perform a pullback or a retracement.
“To break a wall with your car, you need to go at full speed. You just can’t push it,
you need to destroy it. Like in the movies. Or like in physics, you need momentum to
break it.”
Pullbacks and retracements can provide us with plenty of trading opportunities, namely they are:
Trend and Counter-Trend trades. However, we will go Trend and Counter-Trend trading in Part 2
of our Advanced Trader Course.
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Counter-Trend traders look to profit from the
rejection of the zone. As show in the image, a
counter-trend trader would have placed a Sell Limit
on the red line level, for future price re-tests.
Trend traders usually place their Buy Order above the
higher high, a few pips above to avoid higher retests.
They want to follow the trend and they don’t care
about retracements. Another strategy for Trend traders is to wait for a retest of a pierced zone, it
does not always happen but it gives a bit more confidence that price is actually trending and not
just doing a false breakout.
Module 1.2: Hierarchy of Support and Resistance
This sub-module should be self-explanatory but many novice traders are not aware of the
hierarchy of Support and Resistance between different timeframes.
Every timeframe has different key levels of structure and those levels differ in strength. A
support and resistance level based on a daily chart will definitely be stronger than one on a 15
minute chart.
The charts shown previously were taken from a 4 hour chart. How many supply and demand
zones do you think you’ll be able to find on a 15 minute chart?
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Way too many.
“However, I don’t mean that lower timeframes are bad, absolutely not! Treat them
for their specific utilization. Example: lower timeframes for entries and higher
timeframes to identify price behaviour. Trade according to your style and plan.”
Module 2: Reading a Price Chart
Now that we know price creates Support and Resistance because of Supply and Demand, it is
time to actually figure out why and where price will likely to go in the future. Before doing that,
we must know how to spot a trend, recognize momentums and its variables.
Let’s start with the terminology:
Trend and Momentum indicates the
direction price is going. Those two terms
are practically the same, except that trend
is used for a longer term definition, while
momentum is temporary. As shown in the
image, trend (green line) points up, while
momentum phases between trends and
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retracements. Generally a trend like the green line can normally be a bullish momentum for an
even bigger trend. It just depends on how far or how close you see things.
Higher Highs and Higher Lows are
important technical terms to establish an
uptrend. From the chart, higher highs are
higher than the previous highs. This
allows us to establish that we are in a
bullish trend. This is often said with the
phrase, “Price is creating new higher
highs” and that indicates a bullish trend.
In an uptrend, higher highs should be
followed by higher lows.
However, bearish trends are the opposite, price creates new Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
On the left, you’ll find an example of a
bearish trend. As seen from the chart,
price creates new lower lows and lower
highs, with the same concept of trends
and retracements.
It is a common behaviour that happens in
the markets everyday. With some
practice, you can start identifying nice
trends and start getting a clue of what
price is doing.
There is also a behaviour called
consolidation. It appears generally at
Supply and Demand zones, it indicates
uncertainty of the market to penetrate
zones. It happens due to the enormous
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amount of orders placed into Supply and Demand zones. Bulls and bears battle each other to
move the market in a specific direction. Every trader is different and everyone has a different
trading style.
“Short recap for this module: price moves in momentums. We have a trend
momentum and after that, there is a retracing momentum. We can identify them
using the higher high or lower low principal to see if price is trending.
I want you to pay attention to next module. We’re going to discuss support and resistance in
depth. It is a really basic feature of the market but as the saying goes: “Master the basics and
you will be successful.”
Do not memorize these concepts. Try to understand the process behind everything; how and
why these things happen. If you don’t know the rules of a game, how are you going to win?
Module 2.1: Support, Resistance and Consolidation
We have talked a lot about support and resistance in the past modules but we haven’t yet
defined it enough. So far, we know it’s a zone of supply and demand.
We just scratched the surface of it but we didn’t show you how to identify the best zones, so
keep reading and try to understand the process.
Firstly, we are going to look at basic Support and Resistance. In the next module, we will talk
about a more advanced way of identifying Support and Resistance. It is called Dynamic Support
and Resistance, also called Channels or Channeling.
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In the chart above, you can see we’ve highlighted zones in orange as Support and Resistance
zones on a daily chart. The main reason why we’ve picked those zones is simple. They have the
most rejections and retests against all the others.
Let’s start analyzing them to have a clearer picture, starting from the top:
- 1st: Huge wick on a candle, creating a Higher High. Lots of movements in price here.
Strong pressure from sellers dropped the price down. The more the movement and the
more the rejection, the more we can establish one thing: it is strong level. In fact, with the
first rejection, price made a bounce downward to the last support (about 550 pips). On
the second touch, it dropped again for 350 pips. Finally, when price pierced it, our
Resistance turned into Support.
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- 2nd: the second Resistance is basically similar to the 1st one, but on a lower level. What
does that mean? It means that this level will weaken more easily than the resistance
level above. In fact we can see that this zone rejected price on first and second touch,
and then progressively lost its power.
- 3rd: this zone is basically a retest zone. Before trending, price always pierces and retests
this zone.
- 4th: Bottom of the first swing, holding and rejecting first bullish momentum, indicates
nice strength, in fact it will be used for re-tests and again as last touch rejects price
making a new strong swing to the upside!
- 5th: Bottom of the first momentum, it did not get retested yet, so it will be a very strong
zone of rejection in the future.
“Given time, you will get used to this kind of logic. It is harder to learn from
explanation than it is by actually putting it into practise. It is just a question of time
and experience.”
Mastering Resistance and Support zones will not be easy, but this subject will be the main pillar
for our castle. The markets are traded around these zones and you need to utilize them to be
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successful. Don’t rush your learning process, take it slow and learn anything you can, step by
step, in the most minimum details.
I have to mention that there are other ways to actually find these zones. One method stands out
among the others and it’s the Fibonacci Tool. I’m sure you’ve already heard of the Fibonacci
Tool. I’m not here to explain who he was or what he did, however I will just say that he found
some numbers recurring very often in mathematics algorithms. In addition to that, those
numbers can actually be found in nature, and in many other things.
An entire module will be dedicated to this tool. For now we want to know that there is the
manual and a mechanical way (Fibonacci Tool) to find Support and Resistance zones.
“Fibonacci is my bread and butter, even my friends call me Fibo Man! Jokes aside,
Fibonacci is a tool that I rely heavily on in most of my analysis. If you’re part of our
Private Trading Group, I’m sure you’ll have seen it.”
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Module 2.2: Dynamic Support and Resistance
We just learned that normal Support and Resistance is based on a horizontal level. Price reacts
to these zones either as rejections or breakouts. Now we are going to look at things from a
different perspective.
The basic idea of this theory is based on what we learned in Module 2, “Reading a Price Chart”.
If you think about it, a bullish momentum or trend is just price gaining strength in an upward
movement (bulls are stronger) and that means that the opponents, bears, are losing their
strength.
It would be logical to think that if bears are losing strength, they won’t be able to retest the
same level of support. In fact, that is why we see new Higher Lows, just because they are not
strong enough to push the price down.
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Let’s have a look at the image above. This is the same exact image used to explain Support and
Resistance zones. If we link all the lows with each other we would see that we have a Trendline
that works as support.
A trendline is a line that indicates the direction of the price, simple said.
“Dynamic Support and Resistance Trendlines are used by professionals to establish
the best place for their orders. They are hard to learn but can be really rewarding!”
The image above is showing a Channel, which is basically a trendline for the
bottom and a parallel trendline for the top, where price ranges in between those two. However
Trendlines can just be one of the two, it is not necessary to have a top and a bottom trendline.
“Usually when you have a Channel, or a Top Trendline and a Bottom Trendline, we
call it Harmonic trading, because we are trading on specific patterns created by
those trendlines. Examples of Harmonics are Flags, Pennants, Diamonds, Triangles
etc.”
Unfortunately, since we are somehow predicting the future, nothing will be 100%. Like
weathermen, we try to forecast what will happen with probabilities, but this “tool” will give us an
edge in our trading.
Let’s start from the basics. So we know these lines can be really useful, but how do we draw it
correctly? Well, for this there are few different theories that have really strict and different rules,
the first one is called Averaging and second is Peaking. As their name suggests, one Averages
the points we will use while the other will only consider the highest or the lowest points.
“There is no strict rule that says to use ONLY peaking, or use ONLY averaging. The
market is composed by millions of traders that trade trillions of dollars everyday.
It is impossible to always get the perfect price that aligns perfectly to our trendline.
That’s why we should LEARN BOTH TECHNIQUES, to get the best result.”
I will start with a list of the rules a trader “should” follow. Remember it’s all up to your
personality and trading plan. Conservative traders might go against me but even so, I will
explain the techniques both ways, so you will able to choose based on your personality.
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Blue will be the Averaging rule, Orange will be the Peaking rule.
Rule N° 1 - WAIT FOR 2 TOUCHES AT LEAST
This should be a really self-explanatory rule, simply because without 2 points we cannot get a
direction of our trendline. Simple geometry.
I want us to start looking from the bottom here (I will explain why later).
We have an unclear 1st touch, with a long wick going lower than the level of support while the
others are respecting the level very nicely. On the second touch, all the lows align correctly to
our trendlines. Now that we have a bottom trendline, the next thing to do would be to:
Rule N° 2 - COPY TRENDLINE
Since we have 2 points, the best thing to do is to actually forecast what price will do on the
opposite side. Not every time will you get a perfect copy and pasted trendline but with some
modification, it may look good.
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It’s a bit messy here but basically, I tried to see if price was respecting any of the trendlines we
drew on the bottom side. Among all the trendlines, there is one that looks good, can you see it?
“Now that we got your attention, don’t forget to like our page on
Facebook, follow us on Twitter, and subscribe to our YouTube.
And don’t forget our Instagram!
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This is the right choice, and I’ll
explain why:
Do you remember that Support and
Resistance levels are often used as
confirmations? As you can see from
the chart, the red arrows indicate
rejections of price, and it looks really
good!
In addition to that, we do have
candles that pierce the trendline, but we must consider that price sometimes does fake
breakouts or does some big movements based on volatility. I would consider that swing as a
false breakout.
Let’s get onto the next rule.
Rule N° 3 - DRAW SOMETHING ELSE
I don’t mean to draw unicorns or cats, but try to see price movements from a different view.
From a different perspective. Most of the time, we have everything under our eyes but we can’t
see it correctly. The answer is there and you just have to tilt your head a bit.
The trendlines in blue are based
on those two touches. We can
notice how these two points
point in different directions.
Peaking points down while
Averaging points slightly up.
I’m not saying that those two are
wrong but since they are
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different, the best thing to do for us it to actually wait.
It’s not always like that. However, you must not believe that divergence is a bad thing. Instead it
is a warning that there is something wrong with one of those lines. For now our best option is to
wait and probably take into consideration our averaging trendline.
This is the result of our trendlines. We can notice how our assumption about divergences were
correct. In fact, peaking is totally wrong. On the 3rd touch, you can see clearly that price pierced
through it and retested it going higher. Lots of traders still respected that trendline!
The other two Averaging trendlines are quite good. As you can see, price retested and
respected their function as Resistance!
Rule N° 4 - MODIFY
Now that we have a 3rd touch that can be used as another point for our trendline, our theory is
almost correct! Having another point will increase our chances in getting a near-perfect entry.
Now, price is going towards the lower side of channel, and it’s time to be prepared for it!
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Rule N° 5 - COPY TRENDLINE, AGAIN
Now that we have 3 points touching the top side of our channel, the next best thing to do is try
and see if price will respect that trendline at the bottom.
Usually price can have two different trendlines, so step 2 (copy trendline) does not always work,
but if you see some correlation between the top and the bottom, then use it.
This will be the result of our copied trendline. Why did I placed it there? For a few reasons.
First reason: because it is an averaged trendline, and because of that, you want to hit most of
the price peaks. As seen on the chart, the red arrows indicate all the peaks that are reacting to
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the trendline. You can also move the trendline a bit higher to actually touch all the prices from
2nd peak, but since its averaged, placing it in the middle will be the best option.
Second reason: because this trendline fits price movements. Yes, there are some long wicks on
the 1st touch but all of them were completely rejected! The 2nd touch reacted really nicely to it
too. So, it’s a confirmed trendline! We can probably trade it if/when price comes to retest it
again!
“You can’t always trade bounces, sooner or later price will have to breakout, but that
will also be explained, don’t worry.”
We were prepared for and and we made it! Price literally just touched the trendline before
bouncing back! This is the perfect spot for our trade entry! Let’s look at the other trendlines we
drew earlier.
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“Aren’t those beautiful? Yes they are.”
Rule N° 6 - REPEAT RULES 4 and 5.
Now that we have a confirmed trendline, and traded the 3rd touch, we should repeat the process
of rule 4 (modify) and rule 5 (copy trendline, again).
This process makes everything easier for next few touches. The downside of this process is
that sooner or later price will breakout of it. Or, price may breakout during 2nd touch and you will
not have enough information to build your trendlines.
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On the chart above, we have the 4th touch on the top side of our channel. It went a bit higher
than expected, but price didn’t close above our trendline. Trendlines are not perfect and are
subject to volatility, so things like this may occur. We could have traded it because it was a
trendline confirmed from the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd touches on the bottom and top channels.
“Learning the whole process is not easy but as you can see is pretty rewarding, this
example was taken by a Daily Timeframe from EUR/USD, that i personally traded,
and currently still doing it. Each of those momentums were about of 400 Pips and
the better you get at recognizing those trendlines the safer and faster results you
will have. Now i will start discussing on how, when and where to enter a trade. It will be a bit
complex so be careful!“
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Module 2.3: Trendlines and Channels
We’ve talked about how we can create trendlines. Now it’s time to actually start trading them!
I want to emphasize that how a trader trades is essentially subjective to the individual and their
personality. There are aggressive traders like Marco and there are conservative ones like Nazri.
There are traders that base their trading off their lifestyle. Maybe they have a full-time job and
they can’t look at charts all day, so they swing-trade. Or they prefer having different styles and
they scalp in and out. I’ll give you some hints about approaching trading styles but you will have
to adapt it to your needs.
Aggressive Conservative
Enters trade when price directly touches Waits for price to bounce and close at a
trendline. certain distance from trendline.
Waits for double bottom/top on lower
timeframes.
Targets are at least 70/80% of channel if not Has 2 targets, TP 1 is 40/50% of channel and
100% TP2 is at 80/100%
Manually closes trade on how price reacts to Stop loss will go higher than last peak that
trendlines. Generally when price closes touched trendline. If price goes past that
higher. peak, then the trendline is invalid.
Trades both sides of the channel Only trades harmonic outcome
Trades after 2nd touch Trades after 3rd touch
Harmonics are patterns that have a high success ratio. They will be discussed in the next
module.
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Module 3: Harmonics
As mentioned before, harmonics are patterns with a high winning ratio. Professionals and retail
traders use these patterns as their edge in the market. Also, because of their high probabilities
you can determine either if your analysis is right or not.
“If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man
be of learning from experience.”
- George Bernard Shaw
This quote from George Bernard Shaw is the best definition that we can use for Harmonic
trading in Forex. Patterns appear day after day in many market conditions. It is our fault if we
trade it with no success. There is always a reason why a pattern fails, and it’s our job to know
and learn why it happened.
Harmonic trading has mainly two downsides:
- 1st: Pattern Identification: this is the main problem, not because patterns are really
complex things but because our brain does not elaborate price action as we should and
it makes us see things that are not there. This is also called as “forcing a pattern”. This
behaviour is influenced by our flaws such as emotional trading, inexperience, poor
knowledge, impatience and so on.
- 2nd: Forex Depth: There are patterns inside patterns. Every single movement of the
market can be a smaller movement of a bigger one. You need knowledge and an open
mind to select good opportunities. Trading every single pattern is not enough, you need
to know why and what is happening in the market.
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Definition of Pattern:
- A regular and intelligible form or sequence discernible in the way in which something happens
or is done.
- Decoration with a recurring design.
In our case, the Forex market defines a pattern as a set of rules that repeat the same outcome,
most of the times.
If you think about it, patterns are everywhere. Even in our daily lives. We constantly repeat
certain actions that makes us who we are. For example, before going to work, most of us go
through a routine which is composed of waking up, brushing our teeth, showering and having
breakfast.
This is a pattern, because we do something that makes us prepared for the outcome.
Before we dive into patterns, I would like to explain a few important things:
- Bounces: with time you will learn how to trade inside the pattern instead of when it
completes. This requires knowledge and discipline, not forgetting experience.
- Outcome: we will trade the outcome of a pattern not at its breakout, but when a structure
forms outside of it, also known as a “helping pattern”
- Helping pattern: it is a pattern that happens after a pattern breakout. Usually traders call
this a “retest of previous pattern” but in reality this is structure forming outside of main
pattern and this structure actually confirms the intention of price to in its original
direction.
“We know this is a bit confusing, but bare with us. Take this time to have a
break. Also, what I always recommend is chart time. Massive chart time. Do
that, and you’re on your way!”
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Module 3.1: Flag Pattern
One of the best patterns, not for its success ratio but for its use, this is
what we call a “helping pattern” because it confirms the direction of
price.
It’s a really common pattern. Even if most of the time it’s not precise
when it form, it will be the basic pattern for our trading strategy.
A flag consists of 3 parts:
Pole: usually has to be a sharp move. If you have a choppy pole,
chances are that you are seeing something that is NOT a flag.
Retracement: price goes counter-trend and usually it’s a region of ups and downs not well
defined. Indecision between buyers and sellers make this zone a really hard-to-trade area, where
newer traders can be stuck for long time if not familiar with trading bounces.
Outcome: price after a bounce breaks the channel with a sharp movement. It usually will have
the same length of the pole, or it might stop at the end point of the pole.
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“The most important thing about a flag is the retracement zone, which is also the
hardest part to identify and to learn. Train your eyes but mostly your brain. Once
you get used to trading flags you will achieve better entries for your trades.”
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“Price usually retests the structure. This is all you have to know now. There is a
reason behind it and that is explained really well in Elliott Wave Theory and Wave
Analysis. For now, take this retracement as a retest.”
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“Double flag formation, double the fun.”
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“This is a perfect example of how we should use flag patterns for confirmation. In
the chart below, we can see we have a head and shoulder pattern. Expected
outcome of that pattern is bullish and because of that we should wait for our flag
confirmation before trading.”
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“Sometimes you won’t really have a good looking flag but with trendlines you can
still get a portion of it. In the case of this bullish flag, having the top trendline is the
only thing we need and we know that when that trendline breaks it’s time to trade.”
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Module 3.2: Alert Flag
We will also study an alert flag. It has the same characteristic of a
normal flag, the difference being that consolidation follows the pole
direction.
We do not trade the outcome of this flag, we use this for future setups.
Since it is an alert flag, it is possible that price can breakout both ways.
Generally, when you see a flag like this, you want to consider that price
may be changing direction or pattern shape.
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“Don’t rush and trade the breakout of alert flags. They are not made for trading but
instead to let you know that something is changing. With some experience, you will
able to trade them.”
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Module 4: Relative Strength Index
The Relative Strength Index is an oscillator type indicator that moves up and down on the
Relative Strength Index in response to a change in market rates. It is scaled from 0 to 100.
Typically, readings below 30 indicate oversold, while readings over 70 indicate overbought.
However, here at ElementaryFX, we prefer to use 20 for oversold and 80 for overbought to filter
out more extreme market conditions. In the chart below, the RSI is located at the bottom in
purple.
Because the indicator can show potentially overbought or oversold conditions, traders will often
take this a step further to look for potential price reversals.
There are many different ways you can use the RSI, but we want to focus on these overbought
and oversold conditions for potential trading opportunities. Simply said, when price is
overbought, we want to look for selling opportunities. If it’s oversold, we want to look for buying
opportunities.
However, overbought and oversold conditions will not be enough to signal a potential trading
opportunity. In the later parts of this chapter we will look at how you can use the divergences in
the RSI to trade. But first, let’s have a look at oversold and overbought conditions.
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The chart above shows how the market reacts when price is oversold. When price is oversold
after a bearish trend, a reversal is likely to place, and this is where we can enter a long position.
Oversold refers to a situation in which the demand for a certain asset or security unjustifiably
pushes the price of that asset or underlying asset to levels that are not justified by
fundamentals. Oversold is often a term used in technical analysis to describe a situation in
which the price of a security has extended to such a degree - usually on high volume - that an
oscillator has reached its lower bounds.
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The chart above shows how the market reacts when price is overbought. When price is
overbought after a bullish trend, a reversal is likely to place, and this is where we can enter a
short position.
Overbought refers to a situation in which the demand for a certain asset or security unjustifiably
pushes the price of that asset or underlying asset to levels that are not justified by
fundamentals. Overbought is often a term used in technical analysis to describe a situation in
which the price of a security has extended to such a degree - usually on high volume - that an
oscillator has reached its upper bounds.
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At the start of the module, we established that identifying oversold and overbought conditions
would not be enough to place successful trades. While using these levels can be helpful to
traders, they often overlook points of divergence between price and the RSI. Divergence is a
potent tool that can spot potential market reversals by comparing indicator and price.
Above is an example of what we call a bearish divergence. In technical terms, what happens
during a bearish divergence is that price makes higher highs, while the RSI makes lower highs.
This indicates weakness in the uptrend, suggesting that a reversal may be due.
There are two things that a trader can do once a divergence forms and prices start to drop. First,
it is an opportunity for long traders to be proactive about their risk control. That may mean using
tighter stops to protect their profits.
Secondly, a bearish divergence is a great timing signal for traders to get short the market. In
either case, the signal has given you actionable information for your own trade management.
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Above is an example of what we call a bullish divergence. In technical terms, what happens
during a bearish divergence is that price makes lower lows, while the RSI makes higher lows.
This indicates weakness in the downtrend, suggesting that a reversal may be due.
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There are 4 different types of divergences: Regular bullish divergence, regular bearish
divergence, hidden bullish divergence and hidden bearish divergence. However, in this module
we will only be going through regular divergences. The table above shows what a
classic/regular divergence should look like.
Now that we have gone through what divergences are and what they should look like, can you
identify any divergences in the chart above? Here’s a clue: there are 2 of them.
“Combining what you’ve just learned in this module with previous modules can
make a really huge difference in your trading. For a more detailed explanation on
how to use divergences in the RSI, watch this video.”
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Module 5: Understanding Fibonacci
This module is of significant importance as we rely heavily on it in the later chapters, so do pay
close attention. Fibonacci is not an indicator, however it is a tool used in trading. There are two
different types of Fibonacci tools that we use here at ElementaryFX: Fibonacci retracement and
Fibonacci extension.
Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci Retracements are ratios used to identify potential reversal levels. These ratios are
found in the Fibonacci sequence. The most popular Fibonacci Retracements are 61.8% and
38.2%. The minor levels of a Fibonacci Retracements are 23.6%, 50%, 78.6% and 88.6%. After an
impulse move, traders can apply Fibonacci ratios to define retracement levels and forecast the
extent of a correction or pullback. These retracements can be combined with other indicators to
create an overall strategy. Below are examples of how price reacts to the 38.2% and 61.8%
retracement levels of an uptrend.
You will soon realise how we can use the Fibonacci tool to identify potential zones of support
and resistance.
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In the example below, you can see that after a bullish impulse move, price retraces and tests
and respects that 38.2% retracement level before moving towards the 61.8% level where the
same thing can be seen. Long wicks are formed around the 61.8% level, suggesting that price
might not want to make its way lower, giving traders the opportunity to enter a long position.
Retracement levels alert traders of a potential trend reversal, resistance area or support area.
Retracements are based on the prior move. For an uptrend, a retracement of the latest swing
low to high would be used. For a downtrend, a retracement of the latest swing high to low would
be used. Below are examples of how price reacts to the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels of
a downtrend.
“Unlike support and resistance lines, old Fibonacci retracement
levels do not retain significance once broken. They do not
change from support levels to resistance levels once the
previous high or low has been broken. When the previous high
or low has been broke, new Fibonacci retracements should be
drawn once the next swing high or swing low has been
formed.”
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In the example above, you can see how after an impulse move downwards, price retraced
upwards, beats the 38.2% level before coming down to retest it (first arrow) before making its
way up to test the 61.8% level. In this example, price respects and rejects that 61.8% level as
seen from the large wicks produced.
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Fibonacci Extensions
While the Fibonacci Retracement tool can be used to identify potential turning points in the
market, Fibonacci Extensions can be used to identify potential areas where the market might
want to go, also known as price projections. The standard Fibonacci Extension levels that we
use often are as follows: 113.1% 127.2%, 141.4%, 161.8%. Like the retracement, the first step in
drawing Fibonacci Extension levels is to identify two clear swing points.
Unlike the retracement where all you have to do is connect two clear swings, extensions are a bit
different, and it is important to know this.
For an uptrend: you need to take a swing low and swing high and connect it back to the swing
low.
For a downtrend: you need to take a swing high and swing low and connect it back to the swing
high.
For a clearer explanation, watch our video on using Fibonacci correctly.
Above is an example of a Fibonacci Extension using swing AB. After price reached point B, it
retraced a bit before continuing its way upwards. By using an extension of AB, we can project
where price is likely to end. In this case, price made a push up to the 127.2% extension, before
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respecting and rejected it. Consequently, it made it’s way up to the 141.4% extension level and
once again respected that level.
Above is an example of how an extension can be used in a downtrend. The same principle
applies. When price reached point B, it made a retracement before making its way downwards.
Using an extension of AB, we can project where price is like to end up. In this case, we have a
perfect rejection of the 127.2% extension level.
In this module, you can see how using Fibonacci tools can be very helpful in projecting or
predicting what price is likely to do at certain levels. By using retracements and extensions, you
can build a killer strategy that is precise to the pip.
“Typically, we like to use retracements for entries and extensions for exits.
However, these can be used for something even more profitable:
advanced patterns, which will be covered in the next few modules.”
“Fibonacci price retracements and extensions can be used to determine
possible support and resistance levels.”
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Module 6: Gartley Pattern
The Gartley
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X to A Leg
The X to A leg is also known as the impulse leg. A bullish impulse leg is a strong move in price
action to the upside. A bearish impulse leg is a strong move in price action to the downside. For
the above example, we are analysing a bullish Gartley. The same rules apply to a bearish
Gartley, just the exact opposite.
On the chart above, we can identify the move XA as an obvious bullish trend. Thus, we can
identify XA as our impulse leg.
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A to B Leg
The A to B leg is the second leg on the Gartley Pattern.
The A to B leg is conventionally the 61.8% retracement of the impulse leg (XA).
The range of point B should between 61.8% to 78.6%, not touching 78.6%, otherwise it is an
invalid Gartley pattern.
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B to C Leg
To identify the B to C leg, use the retracement of the (AB) leg.
Typically, the accepted range for a valid pattern will be the 38.2% to 61.8% retracement level at
point C.
From the diagram above, we can establish that the BC leg is valid as point C lies in range of
38.2% to 61.8% retracement of BC.
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C to D Leg
The completion leg C to D there are two things we need to look out for.
Firstly, look out for the 78.6% retracement of the (XA) leg.
Secondly we want to look for a 127.2% extension of the (AB) leg.
From the above diagram we can see that there is a confluence of the retracement of X to A and
the extension of the A to B leg. We can therefore build a zone for entry in between those two
levels as shown in the above diagram in the red highlighted zone.
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Targets and Stops
We can either execute the trade with a limit order at the D completion or enter at the current
market price. Whichever method used, stops and targets will be consistent throughout.
Stops will have to go below the X leg. If price goes below point X, we can establish that the
pattern is no longer valid.
To determine where targets go, use the retracement of the CD leg. Initial targets will be the
38.2% retracement of CD. Subsequent targets should be at the 61.8% retracement.
From the above diagram we can see that we have actually met both our targets. Thus, this
would have been a very successful Gartley trade.
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Module 7: Bat Pattern
The Bat
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X to A leg
The X to A leg is also known as the impulse leg. A bullish impulse leg is a strong move in price
action to the downside. A bearish impulse leg is a strong move in price action to the upside. For
the above example, we are analysing a bearish Bat. The same rules apply to a bearish Bat, just
the exact opposite.
On the chart above, we can identify the move XA as an obvious bearish trend. Thus, we can
identify XA as our impulse leg.
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A to B leg
The A to B leg is the second leg on the Bat Pattern. The A to B leg is conventionally the 50.0%
retracement of the impulse leg (XA). The range of point B should between 50.0% to 61.8%, not
touching 61.8%, otherwise it is an invalid Bat pattern. From the above diagram, we can see that
price comes down into the 50.0% retracement of the X to A leg, not touching the 61.8%,
otherwise it would be an invalid Bat Pattern.
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B to C leg
To identify the B to C leg, use the retracement of the A to B leg. Typically, the accepted range for
a valid pattern will be the 38.2% to 88.6% retracement level at point C. From the diagram above,
we can establish that the BC leg is valid as point C lies in range of 38.2% to 88.6% retracement
of BC.
“Congratulations on making it this far! Patterns can be very profitable if
identified and traded correctly. If you want to see a live bat pattern
trade, watch as Nazri picks out a top in one of his trades!”
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C to D leg
The completion leg C to D there are two things we need to look out for. Firstly, look out for the
88.6% retracement of the X to A leg. Secondly we want to look for a 161.8% extension of the A
to B leg. Available range for the extension of A to B is 127.2% to 161.8%.
From the above diagram we can see that there is a confluence of the retracement of X to A and
the extension of the A to B leg. We can therefore build a zone for entry in between those two
levels as shown in the above diagram in the red highlighted zone.
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Targets and Stops
We can either execute the trade with a limit order at the D completion or enter at the current
market price. Whichever method used, stops and targets will be consistent throughout.
Stops will have to go below the X leg. If price goes below point X, we can establish that the
pattern is no longer valid.
To determine where targets go, use the retracement of the CD leg. Initial targets will be the
38.2% retracement of CD. Subsequent targets should be at the 61.8% retracement.
From the above diagram we can see that we have actually met both our targets. Thus, this
would have been a very successful Bat trade.
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Module 8: Cypher Pattern
The Cypher
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X to A leg
Similar to the Gartley and Bat pattern, Cypher patterns also has an impulse leg. The X to A leg is
also known as the impulse leg. On the chart above, we can identify the move XA as an obvious
bearish trend. Thus, we can identify XA as our impulse leg.
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A to B leg
The A to B leg is the second leg on the Cypher Pattern. The range of point B should between
38.2% to 61.8%, not more than 61.8%, otherwise it is an invalid Cypher pattern. From the above
diagram, we can see that price comes up into the 38.2% retracement of the X to A leg, not
touching the 61.8%, otherwise it would be an invalid Cypher Pattern.
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B to C leg
To identify the B to C leg, use the extension of the X to A leg. Typically, the accepted range for a
valid pattern will be the 113.1% to 141.4% retracement level at point C. From the diagram above,
we can establish that the BC leg is valid as point C lies in range of 113.1% to 141.4%
retracement of XA.
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C to D leg
To identify a valid CD leg, look out for the 78.6% retracement of the X to A leg.
From the above diagram we can see that price touches the 78.6% retracement of XA very nicely
and completes the pattern. We can therefore use this zone to enter and go short in this market.
“Traders, well done on coming this far. The Cypher is one of our favourite
patterns. If you want to see the analysis on video, have a look at one of
daily market analysis!”
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Targets and Stops
We can either execute the trade with a limit order at the D completion or enter at the current
market price. Whichever method used, stops and targets will be consistent throughout.
Stops will have to go above the X leg. If price goes above point X, we can establish that the
pattern is no longer valid.
To determine where targets go, use the retracement of the CD leg. Initial targets will be the
38.2% retracement of CD. Subsequent targets should be at the 61.8% retracement. From the
above diagram we can see that we have actually met both our targets. Thus, this would have
been a very successful Cypher trade.
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Module 9: Common Mistakes for Patterns
Wrong XA Impulse: The impulse leg should be an overall bearish or bullish move. It cannot be
just a portion of that move.
The chart below shows an invalid impulse leg. Looking at the chart below, if you look left you
can see that price has been at a higher level than at point X. Ultimately the impulse leg should be
the overall movement of the current behaviour of the market. In a bearish market, the more
accurate impulse leg is the one identified in the chart above.
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Loose percentages: When the different points on the pattern does not coincide with the valid
ranges of the retracements or extensions. A loose pattern has lower chance of success rate.
Traders looking to trade loose patterns should take into account their own trading plan and
consider carefully before entering the market.
The above diagram shows a loose Cypher pattern. The D completion leg falls on the 83.4%
retracement of the XA impulse leg. Although from the chart, we can see that price did respond
nicely to the pattern and made it’s way up, trading a loose pattern is still not recommended as it
has a lower chance of success.
“The Forex market is already extremely unpredictable. Don’t leave your trade to
chance because that would be gambling. Shallow traders believe in luck, strong
traders believe in hard work. Have a trading plan and stay true to it.”
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D point Below X: Not taking the ‘Crab’ and the ‘Butterfly’ pattern into consideration, if point D
exceeds or ends around the same level as point X we can safely say that the ‘Gartley’, ‘Cypher’
and ‘Bat’ pattern is no longer valid.
The above diagram shows the completion leg, D which ends at around the same level as point X.
As such, this would have been an invalid pattern.
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Gartley Pattern Information Recap:
B 61.8% not touching 78.6% Ret. XA
C 38.2% to 61.8% Ret. AB
D 78.6% Ret. XA
D 121.7% Ext. AB
INVALID If impulse XA is WRONG!
INVALID If price does not meet percentages
INVALID If point B touches 78.6%
INVALID If point D is below X
Take Profit Point Percentage Success Ratio
B 90%
C 65%
A 52%
Stop Loss
If it’s a bearish Gartley, stops go above X
If it’s a bullish Gartley, stops go below X
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Bat Pattern Information Recap:
B Approx 50.0% Ret. XA
C 38.2% to 88.6% Ret. AB
D 88.6% Ret. XA
D 127.2% to 161.8% Ext. AB
INVALID If impulse XA is WRONG!
INVALID If price does not meet percentages
INVALID If point B exceeds 50.0%
INVALID If point D is below X
Take Profit Point Percentage Success Ratio
B 90%
C 65%
A 52%
Stop Loss
If it’s a bearish Bat, stops go above X
If it’s a bullish Bat, stops go below X
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Cypher Pattern Information Recap:
B 61.8% not touching 78.6% Ret. XA
C 113.1% to 141.4% Ext. XA
D 78.6% Ret. XA
D 121.7% Ext. AB
INVALID If impulse XA is WRONG!
INVALID If price does not meet percentages
INVALID If point B touches 78.6%
INVALID If point D is below X
Take Profit Point Percentage Success Ratio
B 90%
C 65%
A 52%
Stop Loss
If it’s a bearish Cypher, stops go above X
If it’s a bullish Cypher, stops go below X
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Crab Pattern Information Recap:
B 38.2% not touching 61.8% Ret. XA
C 38.2% to 88.6% Ret. AB
D 161.8% Ret. XA
D 224.0% to 361.8% Ext. AB
INVALID If impulse XA is WRONG!
INVALID If price does not meet Percentages
INVALID If point B touches 61.8%
INVALID If point D exceeds 161.8%
Take Profit Point Percentage Success Ratio
B 90%
C 65%
A 52%
Stop Loss
1 Risk:Reward with point B Take Profit
X point , few pips below it
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Butterfly Pattern Information Recap:
B Approx 78.6% Ret. XA
C 38.2% to 88.6% Ret. AB
D 127.2% to 161.8% Ret. XA
D 161.8% to 261.8% Ext. AB
INVALID If impulse XA is WRONG!
INVALID If price does not meet percentages
INVALID If point B exceeds 78.6%
INVALID If point D does not meet percentages
Take Profit Point Percentage Success Ratio
X 74%
B 43%
C 19%
A 15%
Stop Loss
1 Risk:Reward with point B Take Profit
X point , few pips below it
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CONCLUSION
We have come to the end of Part 1 of our Advanced Trader Course. In Part 2, you can expect
modules related to strategy building and trade management/psychology. You will be exposed to
ElementaryFX’s EPD-SFR strategy, and many more.
A big thank you to Marco, one of our coaches for spending hours upon hours on this course. He
will be back with more in Part 2.
Also, to Syabil, who has spent nights looking for examples of patterns and highlighting and
explaining each leg thoroughly.
We hope this has helped you in your learning. Please note that we will be continuously adding
material to this course if we see the need for it. Any updates will be sent directly to the Private
Trading Group. If you have any questions regarding the modules, feel free to ask us in our
Private Trading Group. Our team will be more than happy to help you out.
Once again, thank you for your time. All the best and please always remember that: