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NEWS

Coronavirus Statistics:
Tracking The Epidemic
In New York
BY JAKE DOBKIN, CLARISA DIAZ AND
ZACH GOTTEHRER-COHEN

MAY 6, 2021 1:43 P.M. • 1264 COMMENTS

Transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 virus

particles (UK B.1.1.7 variant), isolated from a patient
sample and cultivated in cell culture. Image captured at the
NIAID Integrated Research Facility (IRF) in Fort Detrick,
Maryland. NIAID

Latest COVID Data in New York

Region Type Updated Cases Deaths

New
York New 5/6 977 21
City

New
York Total 5/6 934,052 32,700
City

New
York New 5/6 2,404 47
State

New
York Total 5/6 1,881,587 52,256
State

State data from NYS DOH and CDC, city data from NYC DOH.
Both NYS and NYC include probable and con=rmed deaths.
Table: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Get the data • Created with Datawrapper

The Gothamist/WNYC newsroom is using

statistics to shape our daily coverage of the
COVID-19 epidemic. This article explores COVID
statistics in New York City, then looks at New
York State, and finally compares New York to
other regions and looks at a projection of the
future.

Please send any questions or comments to

data@gothamist.com.

Key Statistics for New York City

Date Latest 2/3/2021 — 5/3/2021

8.85%
Positivity 7-Day
2.66%
Average 2.66%

Positives 7-Day 4.5K

1,283
Average 1.3K

Tests 7-Day
48,292
Average 51.2K
48.3K

New 358
Hospitalizations 74
7-Day Average 74

80
Deaths 7-Day
32
Average 32

The city's current goals are to keep positivity less than 5%, new cases
less than 550, and hospitalizations less than 200. Note that the statistics
from the last few days are often revised upward as more results are
added.
Table: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH •
Created with Datawrapper

A note on dates: New York City's most-current

data is released on a 3-day lag. This is because
the Department of Health assigns every case,
hospitalization, and death to the date it occurred,
and reports take time to come in, be collated, and
assigned. They also revise the data for older
dates as new data comes in, so numbers for each
day may change over time.

Menu
Recent Trends

Vaccinations

Positive Cases and Testing

Hospitalizations

Deaths

Demographics

Antibodies

COVID in New York State

Comparing NYC to Other Areas

What Will Happen Next?

Recent Trends

Recent Positivity Rate in New York

City
Click on the buttons below to see other stats:

Positivity Rate Tests Cases Hospitalizations

Deaths

10.00%

8.00

6.00

4.00

7-Day Average
2.00
Positivity Rate

0.00
Feb Mar Apr May

Chart: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH • Get the data •
Created with Datawrapper

This set of charts reviews major COVID statistics

in New York City over the last 90 days. After
months of low numbers of infections, the city's
positivity rate began to increase in September,
driven by clusters in Brooklyn and Queens. After a
lull in October, positivity really began to rise in
earnest at the beginning of November, due
mainly to wider community spread. Throughout
the period, the number of tests conducted in the
city continued to rise, which also contributed to
better detection of new cases. Hospitalizations
and deaths also increased during this time, but to
nowhere near the record numbers the city saw in
April.

Recent Positivity By Borough

11.0%

10.0

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0
Staten Island
3.0 Brooklyn
Queens
2.0
Bronx
1.0 Manhattan

0.0
Feb Mar Apr May

Chart: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH • Get the data •
Created with Datawrapper

This chart helps explain the progress of the

epidemic geographically during the last 90 days.
Though all boroughs rose during this time, you
can see the first peak was concentrated mainly in
Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island, while the
second peak has affected every borough, and
was particularly concentrated in Staten Island.

ZIP Codes By Positivity Over Last 7

Days
Percent Positive Last 7 Days

0.3% 6%

Map: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH • Get the data •
Created with Datawrapper

This map shows the current positivity rates for

each NYC neighborhood over the last week, to
give a better sense of where COVID is currently
concentrated geographically in the city. For total
cases over the entire course of the epidemic, see
the map below in the Positive Cases section of
this article.

ZIP Codes by Positivity and Growth

This Week
In the Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens, and Staten Island

Average Positivity
6% This Week

2
Average Positivity
This Week

Change in Positivity
Since Last Week

−50 0 50 100%

Excludes ZIP codes with less than 15 cases this week; larger circles have
more positives.
Neighborhoods in the top right quadrant have greater than 3% positivity
and positive growth over last week.
Chart: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC BOE • Get the data •
Created with Datawrapper

We use this scatterplot to help us identify ZIP

Change in Positivity
Since Last Week
Codes of concern each week. Look in the upper-
right quadrant: those are the ZIP codes that have
high positivity and have shown growth in their
positivity over the last week: ie. they have an
active and growing outbreak.

Vaccinations

Fully Vaccinated Population

Percentage by NYC ZIP Code
18% 67%

Map: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH via Bertrand Martel •
Get the data • Created with Datawrapper

New York City has recently begun to provide

vaccine statistics on the NYC Department of
Health site. Vaccinations have been
concentrated in wealthier, less diverse ZIP
codes.

Cumulative Doses Administered in

New York City
Cumulative
Doses
6M Administered

5M

4M

3M

2M

1M

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2021

Chart: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH via Bertrand Martel •
Get the data • Created with Datawrapper

The city is administering vaccine doses via

priority groups, starting with first responders
and then moving on to the elderly and people with
relevant health conditions. About 20% of these
doses are going to people who live outside the
city, but who may work in the city.

Number of NYC Adults Partially and

Fully Vaccinated
There are approximately 6.6 MM adults in New York City

People Percent of Adult Population

3M

2M

1M

Fully Vaccinated Partially Vaccinated

Chart: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH via Bertrand Martel •
Get the data • Created with Datawrapper

Estimates of the requirement for herd immunity,

the point at which the virus can no longer spread
effectively in a community, vary among the
scientific community, but 70% of population
immune is a commonly cited figure. Herd
immunity can be reached through vaccination, as
well as through natural exposure and survival of
the virus, so it is likely that the city would have to
fully vaccinate less than 70% of the complete
population to achieve it, because of the high
amount of natural exposure during the first and
second waves of the virus. However, new variants
of COVID could evade some of this immunity, and
we do not yet know how long either natural or
vaccinated immunity lasts.

Positive Cases and Testing

Positivity Rate in New York City

Click on the buttons below to see other stats:

Positivity Rate Tests New Positives Total Positives

Test Turnaround Time

70.00%

60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00
7-Day Average
0.00 Positivity Rate
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Chart: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH • Get the data •
Created with Datawrapper

Testing began in earnest in early March, but for

weeks was limited in availability to the most
symptomatic cases. This led to very high
positivity rates in April, which gradually declined
as the epidemic was brought under control by
social distancing measures, and more people
were able to get tests. Testing continued to grow
every month since, which allowed the city to spot
the beginning of the second wave in September,
when it was still confined to a few
neighborhoods.

Cases By Borough Per 100,000 People

Click on the buttons below to see other stats:

Per Capita Total

100

80

60

40

Staten Island
20
Brooklyn
Queens
Bronx
0 Manhattan
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Number shown for each day is 7-day average cases per capita ending on
that date.
Chart: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH • Get the data •
Created with Datawrapper

Queens and Brooklyn have larger populations

than the other boroughs, so they tend to have
more cases, but when normalized for population,
Staten Island and the Bronx have often seen
more positives each week. This is particularly
true during the second wave, with Staten Island
outstripping the other boroughs.

COVID Cases in New York City Per

100,000 Population
Cases Per 100,000 Population

3,445 16,447

Map: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH • Get the data •
Created with Datawrapper

Starting on 4/1, the New York Department of

Health started to release positive cases by Zip
Code information. You can see totals for the
entire epidemic, as well as possible demographic
associations, at our larger version of the map.

Cases Per Capita vs. Median

Household Income
Click on the buttons below to see other stats:

Income Household Size Population Density Age

Asthma Race

In the Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens, and Staten Island

Cases Per Capita

15,000

10,000

5,000
Cases Per Capita

Median HHI

0 50K 100K 150K 200K $250K

Chart: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH • Get the data •
Created with Datawrapper

We've charted the positive case zip code data in a

scatterplot. On average, the lower income, older,
and more diverse a neighborhood is, the more
Median HHI
positive cases it will have. Asthma rates and
larger household size also show a positive
association with cases. Population density shows
a negative association with cases, mainly
because Manhattan, where ZIP codes are
densest, has had lower case rates so far in the
epidemic. Median age of a neighborhood shows
no clear association, probably because median
age is insignificant compared to the other
factors. You can examine individual
neighborhoods and various demographic factors
on our larger chart.

Hospitalizations

New Hospitalizations in New York City

Click on the buttons below to see other stats:

New Total Beds Available

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200
7-Day Average
0 Hospitalized
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Chart: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH • Get the data •
Created with Datawrapper

Over time, serious cases of COVID will put

patients in the hospital, and once they're unable
to breath on their own, into the Intensive Care
Unit. After a desperate struggle to build
emergency hospital beds in April, it turned out
that the city's existing beds were mostly
adequate, and in the months since, spare
capacity has hovered around 20%.

New Hospitalizations in New York City

Boroughs Per Capita
Click on the buttons below to see other stats:

Per 100,000 People Total

25

20

15

10

5 Bronx
Queens
Staten Island
Manhattan
0 Brooklyn
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Number shown for each day is 7-day average per 100,000 people ending
on that date.
Chart: Jake Dobkin / Gothamist • Source: NYC DOH • Get the data •
Created with Datawrapper

During the first wave of the epidemic, the Bronx,

Queens, and Brooklyn had more new
hospitalizations per capita, but because Brooklyn
and Queens are larger, they had more total new
hospitalizations.

Percent of ICU Beds Full in New York

City Hospitals
Hospitals with more ICU beds have larger circles

23% 98%