Machine Learning Model Generates 479% Profits Trading Gold

Paper # 1
Journal Name & Paper Title

Finamatrix Journal
Automated Gold Trading with MT4
Domain/Subdomain and Contribution
Domain : Trading Strategy
Subdomain : Expert Advisor
Contribution : Proposed a framework to improve the performance and
accuracy of a strategy by using EA and back test on MT4
Material & Methods
Expert Advisor is an automated trading bot. An algorithm is designed
and it backtested for several months.
Experiment & Result Obtained
The algorithm settings include the following but no limited to risk per
trade, maximum total risk, maximum account risk, stop loss pips, take
profit pips, start hour, end hour etc. A low spread level of less than 10
pips will improve test results while a spread level of more than 30 pips
can reduce test results. A successful expert advisor with short term
intraday trades should be able to be successful during period of lower
spreads
The test result shows the profitability of this strategy, nearly 4 times
profits in 9 months with 479 trades. The result also displays a limited
winning percentage of 45% in total trades
Conclusion
The tests have provided evidence that investors are able to use micro
accounts to create high returns on gold trading with similar EAs. The
low percentage of profit trades does not translate to low returns. Nearly
or less than 50% of profit trades is enough, provided that the average
profit trade is greater than the average loss trade, as well as most of the
profit trades achieve more absolute profit than most of the loss trades.
Paper # 2
Physica A
Short-Term Predictions in Forex Trading
Domain : Forex Trading
Subdomain : Kinetic Equation
Contribution : Trading Algorithm on major 3 pairs
Material & Methods
Forex Currency Pairs EURUSD, EURCHF, USDCHF
Apply a recent model in kinetic theory that is used to model trubelance.
As far as this is the first application of this kinetic approach to a
financial system.
In experiment the kinetic equation used the trading live data pairs like
USDCHF, EURCHF and after successful analysis the model makes the
prediction for the buy. In result model shows much accuracy.
Conclusion
There are more currencies than this model can cope with. Any set of
three currencies may be used, and it is possibl to develop a methodology
that uses many sets of three currencies to cover more ground. There will
be redefined models for the short term evolution of the stock market.
Paper # 3
ABAC Journal Vol. 39
Robust Forex Trading With Deep Q Network
Subdomain : Deep Learning, Machine Learning & Q Learning
Contribution : Developing a trading system which have adaptive
capabilities and synchronicity with the market and compare with
traditional trading strategies.
Material & Methods
Forex Trading 6 currency pairs which were EURUSD, GBPUSD,
USDCAD, USDJPY, USDCHF and AUDUSD.
The appropriate method to study how machine learns to trade is to
translate financial trading problems to a reinforcement learning problem
and then train the computer through a Deep Q Learning algorithm.
In experiment it maps reinforcement learning to financial trading. It
performs 4 functions : Set of States, Set of Actions, Reward Function
and Experience Tuple. After performing 2 experiments on 2 currencies
with total historical data of 15 years. The assumptions are
· The initial capital of 100,000USD
· No transaction cost
· The position sizing is 1% for each trade
· One position can be opened at a time
· We enter using the close price of that dayThe AI agent’ s

performance is significantly superior to the buy and hold performance
Conclusion
This study makes several contributions to academics, such as the
application of artificial intelligence in algorithmic trading systems
development. It is a desirable method to replace the human
decisionmaking system because the computer can read hidden profitable
price patterns better than a human and a computer can execute the trade
swiftly and accurately, compared to a human who tends to perform a
suboptimal decision-making process when they trade. The AI is the best
candidate to replace humans in this situation.
Paper # 4
Managerial Finance
Investigating the Profitability of Technical Analysis System on FX
Subdomain : Technical Trading Analysis and Rules
Contribution : Profit Testing System
Material & Methods
Data series for this paper consists of daily spot exchange rates for
USD/DM and USD/BP. Short-term, monthly Eurodollars, Euromark, and
Eurosterling interest rates are also used. The technical analysis software
used is “Windows on WallStreet (version 2.1.2)”. Data analysis is
carried in two steps. First, the profitability of specific technical systems
is calculated for the whole period.Then, these profits are compared to
“buy and hold” trading strategy.
In considering the USD/DM exchange rate over the whole period, all
technical rules used were profitable. More specifically, all variants of the
MACD system were profitable while, from the momentum rules only,
one had losses. For the USD/BP rate, over the whole period and for fifty
technical rules, 43 were profitable and 7 unprofitable. This time series
shows big losses for the second sub-period, a fact that leads us to
consider more carefully the persistent profitability of technical analysis
Conclusion
Empirical results in this study do not lead to a clear-cut answer regarding
the profitability of using technical analysis in foreign exchange markets.
Firstly, technical rules used were profitable over the whole period of the
investigation. Secondly, by comparing the profitability of these rules
against a simple “buy and hold” strategy, the former still lead to profits.
Paper # 5
Knowledge And Information System
Transferring Trading Strategy Knowledge to DL Models
Domain : Trading Strategies
Subdomain : Deep Learning
Contribution : Transfer the knowledge of real algorithmic trading
strategies to Neural Network models for generating signals.
Material & Methods
Information from the financial market may consist of qualitative
information, sentiment of the news articles and attributes of an asset
price movement. The Quantitative methods are used as the source of
learned trading signals, but the presented methods can be applied on any
source of signals, as long as the information that was taken into
consideration to produce them is contained within the provided input to
the model.
The collected data is implemented on the model by using SMA (Simple
Moving Average) long and short. Whenever short SMA cross the long
SMA it generates the buy signal. The CNN and LSTM model is tested
on both training and test data while both performance are same on
training data but LSTM performs better than CNN on test data.
Conclusion
The knowledge from production strategies that emit trading signals is
successfully transferred to an LSTM model. Although in this instance
the employed strategies can be algorithmically derived from the OHLC
price time series, the presented model can be applied in cases where that
is not true, such as strategies directly generated by human traders. This
can be useful for companies to ensure that a successful trader’s behavior
can be simulated by such model to continue the same trading activity if
they become unavailable. The proposed model is compared to another
deep learning model, namely a convolutional neural network (CNN)
which it surpasses at all performance metrics.
Paper # 6
ETASR(Engineering,Technology and Applied Science Research)
Modeling And Trading the EURUSD Exchange Rate Using Machine
Learning Techniques
Subdomain : EURUSD
Subdomain : Machine Learning
Contribute : Producing Trading Strategy using KNN
Material & Methods
The European Central Bank (ECB) publishes a daily fixing for selected
EUR exchange rates.The reference exchange rates are published both by
electronic market information providers and on the ECB’s website
shortly after the concentration procedure has been completed.
The Naive Strategy, MACD Strategy and Machine Learning
Model(KNN)
The currency pair EURUSD data is implemented on all models. But the
KNN shows the most accurate result as compare to traditional trading
strategies.
Conclusion
Implementing a variety of machine learning techniques in the problem
of modeling and trading with the EURUSD exchange rate. From all the
applied machine learning techniques, Random Forests has not been
applied in this problem again while being one of the most accurate
classifiers. The machine learning techniques were benchmarked with
two traditional trading strategies Naïve strategy and MACD strategy.
Paper # 7
Expert System with Applications
A Forex Trading Expert System Based on a new approach to the rule
base evidential reasoning
Domain : Foreign Exchange Market
Subdomain : Technical Analysis System
Contribution : Propose a forex trading expert system based on some new
technical analysis indicators and a new approach to the rule-base
evidential reasoning.
Material & Methods
A proposed system will be implemented on the data collected from the
Foreign Exchange Market.
The proposed Forex trading system was implemented with the use of a
Forex trading platform MetaTrader 4, on the base of data from Investor
online FX.Generally, the developed trading system include such
parameters as Stop Loss, Take profit and special parameters that enhance
the quality of decision. It is well known that even very successful trading
systems providing excellent results at the stage of optimization, usually
produce good or satisfactory results only during some limited (testing)
time after optimization period. The developed Forex trading system
based on the proposed new approach to the rule-base evidential
reasoning may be successfully used in practice for different currency
pairs and time frames.
Conclusion
A new approach to the rule-base evidential reasoning (RBER) is
proposed.Since the combination rules play a key role in RBER, a
comparative analysis of them is provided. A real Forex trading system
was developed. It is shown that this system provides good results and
may be successfully used in practice for different currency pairs and
time frames.
Paper # 8
IEEE Transactions On Neural Networks
Computational Learning Techniques For Intraday FX
Subdomain : AI
Contribution : Proposed a trading algorithm
Material & Methods
Genetic Algorithm is the application of artificial intelligence
(AI)techniques to technical trading and finance has experienced
significant growth. Reinforcement learning has so far found only a few
financial applications.
Consider trading rules defined in terms of eight popular technical
indicators used by intraday FX traders. The indicators using are the price
channel breakout, adaptive moving average, relative strength index,
stochastics, moving average convergence/divergence, moving average
crossover, momentum oscillator, and commodity channel index.
The current RL implementation requires about eight minutes CPU time
on a 650 MHz Athlon per single training optimization . The GA is
implemented in the interpreted language Scheme, but evaluation is
parallelised over multiple similar CPUs. It also takes about eight minutes
CPU time per optimization on a single machine. The Markov chain and
heuristic approaches execute in four seconds and approximately four
minutes, respectively
Conclusion
In this paper developed three trading strategies basedon computational
learning techniques and one simple heuristic based on trading thresholds
over a fixed horizon. The strategies based on the genetic (programming)
algorithm (GA) and reinforcement (Q-)learning train at 15-min intervals
on the buy sell signals from eight popular technical trading indicators
some of which require a number of previous observations and current
positions over a one year period of GBPUSD FX data
Paper # 9
Journal Of Computers
Forex Trading Robot With Technical And Fundamental Analysis
Subdomain : Trading Bot
Contribution : This paper build forex robot that analyze forex market
based on fundamental analysis. Fundamental news periodically extracted
from a website that provide forex news calendar www.forexfactory.com.
Material & Methods
The data will be collect from the forexfactory through the trading bots
and then they execute trade according it. There are 2 automated trading
bots; Technical Robot and Fundamental Robot. Technical Robot works
based on the crossing of moving average. Robot Rules for buy position
1. Wait for the currency to trade above both the 50 SMA and 100 SMA.
2. Exit trade when the price breaks below the 50 SMA by 10 pips.
Robot Rules for sell positon
1. Once the price has broken below the closest SMA by 10 pips or more.
2. Exit trade when the price breaks above the 50 SMA by 10 pips.
On other side Fundamental Robot the algorithm of the trading robot
works based only on fundamental analysis. This robot analyze news
from a news website (www. forexfactory.com). This robot use the news
to gauge market sentiment that will move the market price. News
influences people’s bullish or bearish sentiment on a particular market,
which in turn creates volatility as those people buy and sell.
Some experiments were conducted to compare the performance attained
by the fundamental robot and the technical robot. To obtained this
purpose, three of the most dynamic currency pairs in forex trading were
used EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. The testing duration for all of
these experiments is 30 days.
The performance charts of technical robot form rising linear curve, while
the performance charts of fundamental robot form jagged saw curve.
This means that the performance of technical robot is more likely to be
stable in profiting compared with fundamental robot.
Conclusion
Experiments show that the performance of technical robot is more robust
and stable compare with fundamental robot. The reason is because there
are a lot of factors that affect the news, like market’s sentiments,
multiple news in one time, countinuos effect of the previous news. This
makes fundamental robot can’t depend only on the forecast, previous,
and actual value from the news website, but also other factor such as the
affect of the previous subsequence news. On the same timeframe, the
technical robot result the more profitable balance than fundamental
robot. In this re-search, the technical robot makes trading decision based
on the statistics of the latest market movement.
Paper # 10
Journal Of Risk And Financial Management
Take Profit And Stop Loss Trading Strategies Comparison in
Combination with an MACD Trading System
Subdomain : Automated Trading System
Contribution : Implement a combination of an adaptive MACD Expert
Advisor that uses back-tested optimized parameters per asset with price
levels defined by the ATR indicator, used to set limits for Stop Loss. In
this research, the researcher tested and compared six different TP and SL
strategies used in combination with an algorithmic.
Material & Methods
Trading Systems, Automated Trading, Private Investors, Take profit and
Stop loss. Trading System will automatic execute trade with mentioned
tp and sl. It's an intelligent system it create using 6 different strategies.
The system knows when enter into a trade or when exit from a trade.
The system detects which technique to incorporate with an existing
MACD strategy and which to avoid.
Conducted our experiments on the different Take Profit – Stop Loss
strategies for nine assets from the Forex, Metals, Commodities, Energy,
and Cryptocurrencies categories: AUDUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD,
GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, XAUUSD, OIL, and BTCUSD. Firstly
compared the results for the simple MACD Expert Advisor with the
default parameters and without holding positions over weekends, the
simple MACD Expert Advisor with our selected parameters and without
holding positions over weekends, the simple MACD Expert Advisor
with our selected parameters with holding open positions over the
weekends
It can be concluded that holding open positions over the weekends helps
cut one’s losses, but it also takes away a proportion of the profits for all
the examined assets. Also, using the default parameters almost always
results in losses.
Conclusion
In this research, it is examined that various Take Profit and Stop Loss
strategies added to a simple MACD automated trading system used in
trading 10 assets from the Forex, Metals, Energy, and Cryptocurrencies
categories. In order to make the MACD parameters less important in our
research, we chose parameters based on the characteristics of their
neighborhoods of ±2 and used them for all our experiments.

Machine Learning Model Generates 479% Profits Trading Gold

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Machine Learning Model Generates 479% Profits Trading Gold

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Paper # 1

Journal Name & Paper Title

· The initial capital of 100,000USD

· The position sizing is 1% for each trade

· One position can be opened at a time

· We enter using the close price of that dayThe AI agent’ s

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