Climate Change: A Key to Further Understanding the Ecology of the Ebola Virus Mackenzie Jorgensen BIO 212 section

AD Elizabeth Willis Ebola, like many other exotic diseases of Africa, has raised concern and interest within the scientific circle around the globe as more and more outbreaks occur and more people become infected. Ebola is a filovirus a virus that causes hemorrhagic fevers (EHF Ebola hemorrhagic fevers) and irregular clotting that may possibly lead to massive bleeding, although the majority of deaths are due to failure to detect the virus early enough organ systems shut down, the body goes into shock, and from that point there is little any doctor can do. With a high fatality rate of 90% with a viral hemorrhagic fever, and nothing yet developed to treat it, there is much to be learned about the virus in order to battle its devastating affects in Africa (Groseth et al. 2007). The elusiveness of Ebola has captivated biologists ever since its first outbreak in 1976, for there is no concrete evidence that points to a direct answer on how it is spreading, but studies have recently shown a possible link to fruit bats being a host to the virus. Analysis of studies of both species of fruit bats and different strains of Ebola point to a correlation between the two they may proliferate in a symbiotic fashion. It is my objective to analyze the patterns of where strains of Ebola proliferate in correlation with species of fruit bats known to have carried the virus; to dissect and identify the type of environment that Ebola would thrive in; to analyze how that environment compares to the vectors those species of fruit bats are found; and finally, what climate change would mean for these changing environments, and how might it affect the spread of Ebola throughout Africa to people. There are four known strains of the Ebola virus, named from where cases have been recorded: Zaire ebolavirus (ZEBOV), Sudan ebolavirus (SEBOV), Ivory Coast ebolavirus (ICEBOV) and Marburg virus

2 (MARV). What makes studying this virus so elusive is the fact that these strains cocirculate, (meaning that they occupy and overlap in regions and arise independently) and are recorded in outbreaks however, this doesn t mean that the virus isn t present if there are no outbreaks. With more and more outbreaks being recorded, it s getting easier to see where the certain strains proliferate (thus the reason for naming the viruses based on location). ZEBOV outbreaks have repeatedly occurred bordering the Republic of Congo and Gabon, differing in location to that of SEBOV (outbreaks occurred in Uganda and Sudan), as well as ICEBOV where only two human cases have been recorded (along Ivory Coast and Liberia). Interestingly enough, all recorded outbreaks have occurred within ten degrees of the Equator defining the ideal range in temperature for EBOV to thrive. These outbreaks occur mostly in tropical rainforests, deciduous forest or woodland savannah, and few cases in the actual savanna. Although much knowledge can be obtained by evaluating the geological location of the viruses, it would be more advantageous to use these locations to pinpoint a possible reservoir an animal, arthropod or plant that hosts the disease as it replicates without being affected, and transmits the disease to a vulnerable host (Groseth et. al. 2007). For three cases, two of the Sudan species and one of the Zaire, there was evidence of bats at the site, often the sites being in factories or gold mines. Leading evidence like the latter suggests to scientists today that fruit bats could be a possible reservoir which also poses the question as to how EBOV might be spreading. The two hypotheses that biologists have come up with to explain how it might be spreading are that 1) the virus is continually present in endemic areas, carried by a reservoir and is detected only when by rare chance someone comes into contact with a host and becomes infected, and 2) the virus spreads in a wave-like fashion, occurring in bursts of outbreaks then subsiding, after being newly introduced to a population that has the potential to become infected (Groseth et. al. 2007). Whether supporting either hypothesis, most researchers use Ecological niche modeling, where the ultimate goal is to arrive at a conclusion for the ecological conditions necessary to support the population in question without

migration into or out of this specific population, evident in both studies of Groseth et. al. 2007 and Peterson et. al. 2007. By looking to understand a species and its effect by this method, the parameters are more easily set up as to where species inhabit, for a better perspective is gained when there is a definite set of ecological conditions and close interactions with other species. The next step in gaining an understanding of EBOV in nature is to explore how it might be spreading with the argument for a host species, for today scientists are convinced there is a natural reservoir; to discover what species and why it can carry a virus without being affected is key to uncovering the mechanisms to protecting other species like humans against the virus. Once the virus is isolated, biologists can better see its workings. It has been ruled out that invertebrates, reptiles, birds and plants cannot carry the EBOV virus, leaving mammals as a primary focus. After the first outbreak in 1976, it was thought that mice, rats and shrews could be possible host species primarily because of the close contact they have with human populations (Groseth et.al. 2007); however, both groups of researchers use the assumption that these three fruit bat species found in Gabon and the Republic of Congo - Hypsignathus monstrousus, Epomops franqueti, and Myonycteris torquata are carriers of the virus due to recent discoveries. Interestingly enough, more research is being done with fruit bat species, and instead of going about collecting data in endemic regions of where Ebola has thrived, scientists are now looking to how widespread these bat species are across Africa, so as not to limit the possibility of where Ebola may occur, reflecting the assumption that the geographic distribution of a reservoir would define the boundaries to which the virus would be found (Peterson et.al. 2007). Although there is much behind finding other possible hosts, the knowledge of these three species provides the framework for where questions arise about the affect the climate has on both fruit bat species and EBOV. Analysis of climate factors are now being studied so as to further prove a correlation between these fruit bat species and the spread of EBOV, so it is important to explore the role of environmental

and physiological factors on these species. Groseth et.al. (2007) outlines how temporal and seasonal changes affect the environment, in turn affecting the competition for resources (fruit), thus affecting the reproductive success of fruit bat species positively, which positively affects the spread of EBOV from bat to bat (vertical transmission). The specifics are as follows: 1) As seasons change from one to the next a species proximity to another fluctuates as the competition for resources increases (food), and 2) In Gabon during the dry season there exists a high fruit abundance pointing to a probable increased population of fruit bat species and more interaction during feeding. The last detail raises questions about reproductive success if bodily fluids spread disease, an increased spread of EBOV may correspond to increasing bat populations. With seasonal changes and the effects of rainfall at the heart of this analysis in that it dictates the spread of EBOV, it is reasonable to suggest that changes in climate as the earth warms would have an effect on the spread. Groseth et.al. (2007) goes as far to say that if these specific climactic conditions are predictable and correlate with the transmission of EBOV, then it just may be possible to predict future outbreaks of EBOV, which would be key to containing the virus. According to Jonathan Epstein, disrupting the balance precipitates the spillover of pathogens from wildlife to humans (Shah 2009). Seasonal fluctuations are constant, but with climate change comes change in seasonal patterns as well. Shah (2009) discusses in her article the effects of temperatures rising around the globe and irregular rainfall, and how these two are increasing the risk of the spread of many different pathogens similar to Ebola, like West Nile, Hantavirus, and malaria. These other diseases, similar to EBOV in that they are transmitted by a host and correlate with specific seasonal and environmental conditions, show an increase in occurrence due to intensifying conditions ideal for the disease to thrive. With each 9-degree F rise in temperature in the average maximum weekly temperature, there was an increase in cases of West Nile by 50% between the years of 2001 and 2005 also by 33% after heavy rains. Like outlined by Groseth et.al. 2007 in his studies, Shah gathered data from NASA that indicates the there s a correlation between outbreaks of EBOV shortly after very dry

5 periods followed by heavy rainfall, and also states that that is when vegetation puts out fruit, further supporting her idea that Ebola would not just arise simply from bat-human contact. It is indicated that it is uncertain as to whether global warming will intensify the rainfall patterns that predict EBOV outbreaks, but it would be certain that if temperatures are indeed rising, EBOV outbreaks would be intensified in other ways. As stated previously, Ebola thrives within ten degrees of the equator, and with global temperatures rising, by reason it can be deduced that fruit bats would move and occupy more area thus coming into contact with more people. She outlines an example of how deforestation has forced fruit bat populations into villages in Gabon, where hunters took initiative to rid of the agricultural pests, creating an infectious pool of EBOV, resulting in 186 deaths out of 260 people infected with EBOV. If deforestation has this great an effect on the parameters of a host, the effect climate change plus deforestation would extend these parameters vastly. Groseth et.al. 2007 thought that maybe EBOV outbreaks could be predicted through change in the ecological conditions, and if Shah illuminates on the discovery that malaria outbreaks can now be easily predicted through weather forecast, then Groseth s thought may be valid. With the earth s climate changing rapidly, temperatures are increasing and affecting ecological systems all across the board. It is significant to be able to further analyze the relationship between the changing climate and its effects on the environments, in turn affecting the circle of EBOV outbreaks within human populations. Through a new field, conservation medicine, science is looking at how specifically the warming of the planet and the shifting climates are affecting diseases all over the world (Shaw 2009). Hopefully with the emergence of this new field of conservation medicine and more in depth study of climate change, some answers to isolating the virus will arise, and quite possibly a vaccine or new method of prediction and prevention.

6 Works Cited: Groseth, A., Feldmann, H. & Strong, J.E. 2007. The ecology of ebola virus. Trends in Microbiology 15(9):408-416. Shah, S. 15 Oct 2009. The Spread of New Diseases: The Climate Connection. Yale Environment 360. Townsend Peterson, A., Papes, M., Carroll D.S., Leirs, H., & Johnson, K.M. 2007. Mammal taxa constituting potential coevolved reservoirs of filoviruses. Journal of Mammology, 88(6): 1544-1554.