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Exercise for October 13, 2007

May 2003 Course 1 Examination, Problem No. 37, also Study Note P-09-07, Problem
No. 17
An insurance company pays hospital claims. The number of claims that include
emergency room or operating room charges is 85% of the total number of claims. The
number of claims that do not include emergency room charges is 25% of the total number
of claims. The occurrence of emergency room charges is independent of the occurrence
of operating room charges on hospital claims. Calculate the probability that a claim
submitted to the insurance company includes operating room charges.

A. 0.10 B. 0.20 C. 0.25 D. 0.40 E. 0.80

Solution.
As always, start by labeling the events. Let O be the event of incurring operating room
charges, and E be the event of emergency room charges. Then, because of independence
of these two events,
0.85 = Pr (O ! E ) = Pr (O ) + Pr ( E ) " Pr (O # E ) = Pr (O ) + Pr ( E ) " Pr (O ) $ Pr ( E ) .
Since
( )
Pr E C = 0.25 = 1 ! Pr ( E ) ,
it follows that Pr ( E ) = 0.75. Therefore
0.85 = Pr (O ) + 0.75 ! 0.75 " Pr (O ) ,
and Pr (O ) = 0.40.
Answer D.

© Copyright 2004-2007 by Krzysztof Ostaszewski.

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