BUSINESS MANAGERS' PERCEPTIONS OF FORECASTING: EVIDENCE FROM

GENERAL SANTOS CITY

Hillary Lynn R. Rodrigo
Erica B. Tesnado
Shaira Villaflor

ABSTRACT: Business managers must have the capacity to correctly anticipate future
performance in order for them to make significant choices. Food service is a highly dynamic and
sensitive industry in which situations such as overproduction and underproduction are common,
as well as a rapid shift in consumer preferences, are prevalent, among other things. As a result, it
is critical to include forecasting into future operations and decision-making. Business managers
working in the business food services located within General Santos City were approached to
answer a 15-scale survey questionnaire regarding their perception of forecasting. The gathered
data was then used and analyzed to evaluate the level different perceptions of the managers,
examined the significant differences between the male and female managers and suggested a finest
forecasting model for the company of who have the least perception in forecasting. The results
showed were contradicting since most managers agreed that quantitative technique is much more
accurate rather than qualitative (judgment) method however, those managers significantly use
judgement in forecasting. Employer and organizational support are weaker to adopt quantitative
forecast. Out of 15 perceptions, only 5 of it were significantly different from male and female
managers which means that in doing forecasting, men and women are usually on the same page.
And mostly men were evident to be using the quantitative while female rely on their judgement.
With the said results, researchers recommended that the organization should invest on the things
that would help the managers adopt good quantitative forecasting like software, seminars and even
compensation. For the future researchers, in depth interviews should be made to managers in the
said location to know why they still prefer in doing judgemental forecast.

Keywords: Forecasting, Food Service, Time Series, Manager’s Perception

I. INTRODUCTION

The increasing rivalry, the fast shift in circumstances, and the trend toward automation all
require that business decisions not be made only on the basis of speculation, but rather on the basis
of thorough analysis of facts about the future course of events. Forecasting provides the capacity
to make skilled business decisions and create data-driven strategies based on historical data.
Forecasting techniques are utilized to provide relevant and accurate information for the
formulation of planning premises. Forecasting seeks to limit the uncertainty associated with
management decision-making about expenses, profit, sales, production, pricing, and capital
investment, among other things. The significance of accurate forecasting for company success has
a long and notable history to support such claims. The accuracy of predictions has been shown to
decrease the risks associated with business choices, and good forecasts have been shown to
improve earnings by as much as 2% for every 3% increase in forecast accuracy (Morris, 2014).

Employee perception has long been promoted as a way to improve work quality, by
improving workers' and workgroup members' understanding of what the intended outcomes are
and how they may be accomplished, perception strengthens the connection between performance
and the anticipation of a favorable outcome. Additionally, it focuses the efforts of
employee’s/workgroup members toward the organization's goals and objectives. Due to this,
businesses have a significant influence in molding their workers' perceptions by giving incentives,
offering development guidance, eliciting their views, and justifying their perceptions about their
employment, department, supervisors, and company.

In the food service industry, production planning is often based on managers' intuition and
knowledge from past days of operations to forecast how much to produce for each business
operation. Intuition is useful if the estimates are sufficient to meet the number of consumers in a
daily operation, but this is not always the case. There are occasions when businesses may over-
produce or under-produce the number of supplies required, and this can have an unfavorable
impact on the firm. According to Egan (2020), overproduction results in high food costs and waste.
Worse, it is difficult to preserve the food's shelf life, and serving it that is not at its peak would
result in consumer discontent. Also, underproduction occurs when a company is frequently
running out of products, which can harm the company's reputation in the foodservice industry.
Thus, it is essential to have an accurate forecast to meet business objectives and avoid challenges.

The food service industry became a major trend after the pandemic started. Since the food
services business has permitted only a limited number of people outside, its function has been
extended from the standard dining to take-out services and to online meal deliveries. Many
businesses were forced to close as the virus spread, while many others turned to utilize online
platform, many took the opportunity partnering with delivery services like food panda and Grab
who just recently launched during this pandemic in General Santos City. Despite of the trend in
food services many businesses were not able to sustain it due to several issues of over production
and under production cases, this happened because of many reasons and one of that is the lack
knowledge in planning and budgeting which is forecasting’s expertise. This case study will explore
different perceptions of people who are exposed in business world and their stance in the use of
forecasting.

Objectives of the Study

This study aims to achieve the following objectives:

Generally, the study aims to determine the level of perceptions of business managers in food
industry. Specifically, the study seeks:

1. To identify the profile of the participants in terms of:

1.1. Gender
1.2. Age
1.3. Educational Attainment

2. To identify which manager who has the least perception about forecasting.

3. To choose and propose the best forecasting model to apply.

3.1 Naïve model
3.2 Moving average
3.3 Exponential smoothing
Statement of the Problem

1. What are the levels of different perceptions of the managers about forecasting?
2. What is the significant difference between the male and female managers?
3. What is the best forecasting model for the business who have the least perception in
forecasting?

Hypothesis

1. There is no significant difference between the perception of male and female managers
2. Quantitative forecasting methods may still be incomprehensible to industry practitioners.

II. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

Due to the critical nature of competing in a worldwide and highly competitive market,
forecasting accuracy is required to guarantee successful performance. (McCarthy et. al., 2006;
Boone et. al., 2019; Yu et. al., 2014). Many planning teams face a problem in forecasting accuracy
due to a lack of resources. (Basson et. al., 2019). Wilson and Spralls (2018) discovered that in
American firms, marketing and sales departments are regarded to be the most frequent contributors
to forecasting. Other functional units, on the other hand, frequently claim forecasting—even sales
forecasting—as a part of their domain. A distinct forecasting department, finance, and logistics are
all examples. Nonetheless, in 43% of businesses, the sales function is responsible for forecasting
(McCarthy, Davis, Golicic, & Mentzer, 2006).

According to Hoyle et al. They argued that the capacity to properly forecast future
performance is a key component of making vital judgments and insisted that quantitative data
should be used to develop forecasts that are based on good data analysis. This research examines
how sales professionals (both sales managers and salespeople) are doing this, taking into account
the modern-day tools that are accessible, as well as the consequences of their actions. Beyond
certain demographics, the research looks at how people feel about numerous forecasting sales force
automation components, including enterprise resource planning (ERP) and customer relationship
management (CRM) software, among other things. Because of these beliefs, it is extremely
difficult to incorporate new cutting-edge predictive analytic techniques to aid in the allocation of
resources such as time, money, and human talent. Perceptions suggest a need for a greater
understanding of how to combine the capabilities of CRM, ERP, and other technology in order to
maximize the potential afforded by such systems and proposed that these new analytical tools have
the potential to significantly increase the performance of sales professionals, both as salespeople
and as sales managers.

In another study, they determined how sales managers perceive sales forecasting through
conducting a survey from business-to-business sales managers, with approximately equal
representation of male and female respondents. They derived findings regarding forecasting-
related preferences, attitudes, desires, and examined those views, actions, and demographics of
women to those of males and discovered two significant disparities between the two groups.
Women are less prone than males to make decisions simply on the basis of judgmental predicting,
means that there is compelling evidence that quantitative (objective) prediction approaches are
more accurate than qualitative (judgmental) forecast methods. Second, women are less likely than
males to think that their forecasts are taken seriously by their colleagues in their businesses, despite
the fact that they usually employ a superior forecasting method in their firms. The article closes
with organizational suggestions and implications for businesses including recruiting procedures,
tool selection for forecasting, training and development, and the usage of an employee resource
group (Hoyle et al., 2020).

One of the most difficult issues in the food service business is adjusting production and
stock levels to reduce product losses owing to their short perishability (Silva et al., 2014). Food
items have a short perishability factor, which affects stock management, according to (Barbosa et
al. 2012). These items have a shelf life during which they keep their characteristics and should be
consumed before they are declared unsafe to eat. When analyzing the outcomes of quantitative
approaches, the perishability of products should be addressed. Making it possible to not only plan
production to meet projected demand, but also to contribute to reducing product loss due to its
short perishability and, as a result, increasing corporate profitability.

Worthen's alleged lack of business expertise with forecasting software may contribute to
Sanders and Manrodt's (2003) conclusion that just 11% of 240 US firms use forecasting software.
Additionally, 60% of respondents who used forecasting software said that they frequently changed
estimates depending on their judgment. Thus, knowing the correct use of judgment is more critical
than ever for academics and practitioners. As one might assume, judgment plays a critical part in
corporate sales forecasting, where the effects of promotions and competition activity, which are
typically known or anticipated by marketing personnel, may be factored into predictions. Fildes
and Stekler (2002) summarize their results in their assessment of macroeconomic forecasting by
declaring unambiguously that the evidence favors (judgmental) interventions.

III. METHODOLOGY
A panel of managers were approached for the purpose of the research reported here in. For
data collection and analysis, a survey questionnaire was employed. The study instrument was
initially made available face-to face doing a survey in food business establishments around
GENSAN and online via Google Forms that was designed to take approximately 10 min to
complete and was then shared and disseminated over Facebook and Messenger. The study
participants who are General Santos City residents are identified by a convenience sampling
technique. Respondents are identified as managers currently working in a B2B context, either as a
sales manager or an outside/field salesperson. A data collection resulted in usable responses from
30 respondents and answered survey questionnaires with 15 scale items. Statistical tools used in
the study are percentage and frequency analysis, weighted mean, one sample t-test and t-test. There
was a possibility of self-selection bias, as with any volunteer questionnaires with regard to
managers in order to get a true picture of the existing use of analytics in sales-focused choices,
with a focus on forecasting.
 Figure 1. Locale of the Study

The questionnaire is a 5-section, 15-item test. Part 1 consists of questions to determine the
respondents profile, such as age, gender, and educational attainment. The second section is a 15-
item part that uses a 5-point Likert scale. The said section will determine the respondents'
perception about forecasting in their works. The responses that was gathered by the researches will
be strictly confidential and should only be used in the purposes of this study.

After computing the perception of each managers in forecasting, the researchers then
identified the manager with the least perception in forecasting. The researchers asked that manager
for their historical data. The researchers gathered the 36-weeks of sale from January 2020-
December 2020. Different forecasting technique were then utilized to know the best quantitative
forecasting technique in that business.

Forecasting Models

After conducting a survey, the researchers determined the business that has the least
knowledge about forecasting. Then proceed to ask the chosen business to give the researchers the
demand counts from October 2020 to June 2021 and made sure that the data given was only used
in this research. After that, the researchers choose forecasting models to evaluate the data given
by the respondent. They were respectively: (1) naïve model, (2) moving average, (3) regression
analysis, and (4) exponential smoothing. Data used were the 35 weeks of demand counts in the
business.
Naïve Model

The naïve approach is the simplest to implement. Simple predictions assume that the most
recent periods are the most accurate forecasters of the future (Hanke, Reitsch, & Wichern, 2001).
When using n = 1, the authors looked at how well their predictions performed. The naïve forecast
for each period was the observation that came just before it. As a result, the model may be
expressed as Equation 1. In certain circles, this model is referred to as the "no-change" model since
it assigns % of the weight to the current number in the series.

Single Moving Average

An SMA is a fairly basic short-term forecasting technique that averages and smooths the
most recent real data to eliminate undesirable unpredictability (DeLurgio, 1998). In the single
moving average technique, each previous observation is equally weighted, and the average is
moved forward in time as a result of this. As a result, when new data points are seen, the oldest
observations are deleted from the database (Hanke, Reitsch, & Wichern, 2001; J. L. Miller,
McCahon, & Bloss, 1991). Using Equation 2, we can express the single moving average SMA(k)
model as follows:

Simple Exponential Smoothing

When Brown (1959), Holt (1957), and Winters (1960) proposed exponential smoothing in
the late 1950s, they were immediately embraced as the basis for some of the most successful
forecasting methods available. Whenever predictions are produced using exponential smoothing
methods, they are based on weighted averages of prior data, with the weights dropping
exponentially as the observations get older. The simplest of the exponentially smoothing methods,
simple exponential smoothing (SES) is named for its simplicity, and it is the simplest of the
exponentially smoothing techniques. It is acceptable to use this approach when forecasting data
that does not show a clear trend or seasonal pattern. Using Equation 3, we can express the model
as follows:

Validating Forecasting Model

The foodservice business forecasts for the ex-post period from October 1, 2020 to June 3,
2021 were generated by using the aforementioned three forecasting models. The accuracy of these
forecasting models was evaluated in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean
absolute deviation (MAD). Both MAPE and MAD are relative measures and widely employed in
forecasting studies to facilitate the comparison of accuracy among different methods.

a. The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is one way to assess accuracy (MAD). This is
calculated by taking the total of the absolute values of the individual prediction mistakes
and dividing it by the number of forecast errors in the dataset.

b. In addition to the MAD, the MAPE is sometimes used. It is common practice to use the
mean absolute percent error (MAPE) to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting models to
improve forecasting accuracy. To understand this error measure, which was developed by
Lewis (1982, p. 40), consider the following: (1) MAPE 10% and below indicates a highly
accurate model, (2) MAPE ranging from 10% to 20% indicates a good and accurate model,
(3) MAPE between 21% and 50% indicates a reasonably accurate model and (4) MAPE
50% and above indicates an inaccurate model.The MAPE is the average of the absolute
values of the errors represented as a percentage of the real values, and it is calculated as
follows:

IV. PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF DATA

4.1 RESPONDENTS

Table 1 shows the personal backgrounds of the respondents; the information was acquired
using an online and face-to-face survey. The table shows the gender, age, and educational
attainment profiles of the respondents. The sample includes 19 (64 %) female business managers
and 11 (36 %) male business managers. The majority (64 %, n=19) are aged 31 or above, while
the remaining (36 %, n=11) are aged 30 and below. A total of 19 (64%) of these business managers
are college graduates, while 9 (30%) are high school graduates or having 2-year college degree,
and only 2 (6%) of the managers have at least some graduate work.
 Profile Variable Frequency (f) Percentage (%)
Gender : Male 11 36%
Female 19 64%
Total 30 100%
Age : Younger (30 years and 11 36%
below)
Older (31 years and above) 19 64%
Total 30 100%
Educational High school graduate and 2 9 30%
Attainment: year college degree
Four year college degree 19 64%
At least some graduate work 2
Total 30 100%
Table 1: Profile of the participant

4.2 RESULTS FROM THE ENTIRE SAMPLE

The means for each scaled item were compared to the scale midpoints of 3. See Table 2 for
the results. This analysis resulted in five main takeaways:

1. The mean response for “I personally use only judgments to prepare forecasts,” was
significantly above the midpoint. The key word “only” suggested that managers in General
Santos City have not yet progressed beyond judgmental or intuition forecasting. Perhaps
the managers in this study had more years of experience may explain why they feel more
confident in forming judgements. The acceptability of judgmental forecasting as a
technique has grown throughout time, as acknowledgment of its importance. Notably, the
quality of judgmental predictions has increased as a consequence of the realization that
better judgmental forecasting may be accomplished through the use of well-structured and
systematic methods (Lawrence, et al 2006). However, their response contradicted to the
mean result of “quantitative forecasts are usually more accurate than qualitative forecasts,”
which was higher than the midpoint. This shows that they understand how accurate
quantitative forecast are nevertheless, they still use their judgements. It's more probable
that these managers have trouble putting forecasting into practice such as how to integrate
forecast components, comprehend the tools they have, evaluate data and the level of detail
required, and identify turning points.
 2. For “Forecasting is important in my work,” the mean response was significantly above the
midpoint. The findings revealed that forecasting is more than simply an extra task to add
to an already hectic workday. Rather, it is a necessary feature that must be performed.

3. The result in the number 2 above is not consistent with what we found in “My forecasts
are taken seriously by others in the organization”, which is lower than midpoint. This
revealed that there’s a least communication about forecasting within the organization. This
can be viewed as companies have not taken time to record every stage of their sales process.
As a result, all opportunities are seen as having the same likelihood of being accomplished.
They assume that the income they have earned in the past will remain in the same manner
in future.

4. The mean response for “my organization provides support for my continuing education
related to forecasting,” and “I have attended professional sales forecasting
seminars/programs”, was below the midpoint. This can also be the reason why managers
chose to use judgemental forecasting even though they knew that quantitative forecasting
are more accurate. Businesses in General Santos City are still not in the phase where they
would openly adopt quantitative data. It can also be proved by the mean response of “my
employer provides good forecasting software to help me make forecasts,” which was below
the midpoint.

5. For “I wish I had more training about how to develop forecasts”, the mean response was
significantly greater than the midpoint. The findings revealed that managers expressed a
willingness to learn more about forecasting since they felt that quantitative forecasting is
more accurate than judgmental forecasting.

6. A powerful finding for “The accuracy of my forecasts is influential in determining my

compensation”, signifies that there is a little value that businesses place on forecasting.
Because compensation systems aren't designed to account for precision in planning and
execution, managers aren’t given tools and doesn’t need significant expertise to help them
succeed with this new measure.

Table 2: Mean ratings compared to the scale midpoints of 3.0

Scale items N Mean t Sig ( 1-
tailed)
Forecasting is important in my work. 30 3.23 1.65 0.055
The ability to make good forecasts is more important 30 3.2 0.78 0.22
for B2B sales than for B2C sales.
I have attended professional sales forecasting 30 2.9 -0.65 0.74
seminars/programs.
I personally use only judgments to prepare forecasts. 30 4.6 9.56 0.00
 I use Excel with add-in features to prepare forecasts. 30 2.2 -4.46 1.00
I use only basic native Excel functions to prepare 30 4.2 6.48 0.00
forecasts.
I use professional forecasting software when 30 1.73 -10.93 1.00
preparing forecasts.
I wish I had more training about how to develop 30 4.1 6.84 0.00
forecasts.
My employer provides good forecasting software to 30 2.4 -3.59 1.00
help me make forecasts.
My forecasts are taken seriously by others in the 30 2.73 -1.57 0.94
organization.
My organization provides support for my continuing 30 2.63 -2.12 0.98
education related to forecasting.
Over the last five years the importance of forecasting 30 3.17 1.02 0.16
in sales functions has increased.
In today’s environment quantitative forecast methods 30 4.37 9.41 0.00
should be used more than qualitative methods.
Quantitative forecasts are usually more accurate than 30 4.14 6.49 0.00
qualitative forecasts.
The accuracy of my forecasts is influential in 30 2.97 1.23 0.11
determining my compensation.

4.3 DIFFERENCE ACROSS GENDERS

The researchers examined if there was a difference in response between men and women
for the 15 items listed in Table 2. As indicated in Table 3, six statistically significant findings of
independent sample t-tests comparing men and women were obtained. There are many relevant
implications from Table 3. For starters, 10 of the 15 items in Table 1 are not included in Table 3
since there is no significant difference between the ratings given by both genders. This shows that
when it comes to predicting problems in the workplace, men and women managers are usually on
the same page, which is encouraging.

T – test for equality of means

Scaled variables
t Sig. Mean difference
(2 –tailed) (Male – Female)
I personally use only judgments to prepare 1.72 2.08 -0.02
forecasts.
I use only basic native Excel functions to 1.71 2.06 0.22
prepare forecasts.
I wish I had more training about how to develop 1.71 2.06 0.13
forecasts.
 In today’s environment quantitative forecast 1.71 2.07 0.18
methods should be used more than qualitative
methods.
Quantitative forecasts are usually more accurate 1.70 2.06 0.07
than qualitative forecasts.
Table 3: Independent sample t-tests by gender

Out of five items that have significant difference between genders, four items had mean
response for men that are greater than the mean for women. The findings may be interpreted in
two ways on why female managers depend on judgemental predictions more than male managers.
Probably it's because the female managers that are respondents in this research had more years of
experience and therefore have a more extensive foundation on which to base their decisions. Even
though expertise aids, there are substantial evidence that quantitative predictions outperform
judgmental projections. Secondly, assuming that men in this study are new managers than females,
perhaps their inexperience as a manager has made them more aware of the tools available and
more accepting of the fact that quantitative forecasts beat judgement forecasts. The result
contradicted to the study of Wilson et al (2020), that there are male managers who personally use
judgements than female managers. This is also why more male managers believed that quantitative
forecasts are usually more accurate than qualitative forecast. It can also be viewed that male
managers have more knowledge about forecasting than female managers. Because they knew that
quantitative forecast are more accurate, male managers wished that they had more training to
develop forecast than female managers. Although less male managers use judgements to prepare
forecast, they only use basic native Excel functions in preparing forecast. This offered compelling
proof that male managers are unaware of the benefits of utilizing specialized forecasting software.

4.4. QUANTITATIVE FORECAST TECHNIQUE

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

Sales Forecasted Sales

Figure 2 Actual Sales and Forecasted Sales of the manager that has the least perception
 Forecasting Models MAD MAPE
Naïve Model (n = 35) 40.14 34.98%
Single Moving Average (n = 32) 34.43 46.95%
Simple Exponential Smoothing (α = 0.2) 25.36 30.07%
Table 4. Forecasting Performance

In accordance with Table 4, the simple exponential smoothing model provided the best
(smallest) MAPE value (30.07 %). It was followed by the naive approach (34.98 %), and the
moving average model produced the worst (biggest) MAPE value (46.95 %). Next, an examination
of MAD values (in Table 1) disclosed that the simple exponential smoothing model was still the
best forecasting model with the smallest MAD (25.36). It was followed by the moving average
model (34.43). The largest MAD value (40.14) was produced by the naïve model.

As a result of the ex-post validation, it was determined that the simple exponential
smoothing model outperformed all of the other models considered. Also, that the single moving
average model of the univariate time series model is better than the benchmark naïve model in
terms of forecasting accuracy as measured by MAPE and MAD. As a consequence of this research,
it was shown that using basic mathematical forecasting methods (such as the double moving
average method) it was possible to produce extremely accurate predictions with an error margin
of less than 30%. Note that the smaller the forecasting error the accurate the model is.

Figure 3. A Conceptual Illustration of Using Different Forecasting Approaches for Food Service
Business
 This figure shows that the higher the forecasting mistakes, the higher the incurred costs
(labor and food). Using accurate forecasting models may help reduce the costs of over and under-
estimating food supplies. Judgmental forecasting based only on managers' intuition and expertise
usually produces the largest forecasting errors and costs. Through the use of time series forecasting
models, it may provide highly accurate predictions and may decrease forecasting mistakes and
costs. The shaded region A shows the advantages of time series forecasting over judgment-based
forecasting. With historical data and a basic exponential smoothing model, this study's results
showed very accurate demand forecasting.

However, managerial intuition and experiences should not be discredited. Long-serving

managers may occasionally forecast demand quite accurately. Combining several forecasting
approaches has been proven to improve prediction accuracy (Armstrong, 2001; Geurts & Whitlark,
1999-2000; Gupta & Wilton, 1987; Lawrence, Edmundson & O'Connor 1986). Hu et al., (2004)
proposed to combine time series forecasting with food service manager's judgmental forecasting.
This combination strategy should help the restaurant management reduce forecasting mistakes.
The darkened region B shows where even more cost reductions may be made.

V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Conclusion: Because there is very little study on forecasting sales and demand on food service
industry, and few academic research on managers’ perception in forecasting, the concepts
discussed in this article provide a solid basis. This study examines the perception of food service
managers in forecasting, the significant difference between male and female managers, and
propose a best quantitative forecasting technique to the business who had a manager that has the
lowest perception in forecasting to prove how quantitative forecast are better than qualitative
forecast. Result shows that both male and female managers agreed that forecasting is important in
their business. However, certain items above shows that the level of organizational support in
forecasting is weaker than it should be. Almost all managers believed that quantitative forecasting
is more accurate than qualitative forecasting yet, majority of them still use judgemental approach.
Therefore, it is evident that businesses in General Santos City were still not ready to adopt
quantitative forecasting as a decision-making tool. Out of 15 perceptions, only 5 items had a
significant difference between the male and female managers. Female managers more likely to use
judgemental forecasting than male managers. Hence, they more likely to believe that quantitative
approach are more accurate than qualitative approach and desire to have more training about
forecasting. Thus, when it comes to predicting problems in the workplace, men and women sales
managers are usually on the same page. Using the historical data of a business that has a manager
with the least perception in forecasting, the result revealed that utilizing exponential smoothing
has a lesser forecast error than the use of intuition of managers. Therefore, using a time series
forecasting method may help to minimize forecasting errors and related expenses.
Recommendations:

To the companies:

1. Although managers believed that quantitative forecast are more accurate than judgemental
forecast, they still use the latter part. Thus, employer and organizational support should be
given to managers in doing quantitative forecast.
2. The organization should invest on the things that would help the managers make a good
forecasting like software, seminars and even compensation.
3. As organizations hire new manager, that manager should have knowledge about
forecasting—it can be a male or female managers.
4. For this to work, businesses must emphasize the significance of entering data into these
systems so that the information provided becomes more reliable, while rewarding
individuals who produce more accurate predictions.

To future researchers:

1. In depth interviews should be made to managers in the said location to know why they still
prefer in doing judgemental forecast.
2. There were only three quantitative techniques that were used in the study. Introducing other
quantitative tools to the managers would be beneficial.
3. Future study should focus on identifying the best forecasting tools and combining
forecasting with other operational ideas.
4. Focusing on a certain business industry and using their historical data to test the future
researchers’ suggested combined forecasting technique and comparing forecasting
effectiveness to other simpler time series methods would be an appealing research project.

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Research Instrument:
Business Managers' Perceptions of Forecasting: Evidence from General Santos City

General Instruction: This survey form is divided into two categories, and you are asked to answer
all questions as honestly and openly as necessary. The researcher appreciates your responses. The
information provided will be kept strictly confidential and used only for the purposes of this
research. Please check the box of your choice. Thank you for your cooperation.
PART I.
Personal Background
1. Gender: (✓)
Female
Male
2. Age
30 years and below
31 years and above
3. Educational Attainment
High school graduate and 2-year college degree
Four-year college degree
At least some graduate work

Instructions: The following items describe statements about the different perceptions of managers
of forecasting. Indicate your agreements or disagreement with the following statements by
checking your response on the box using the scale:

1- Strongly disagree
2- Disagree
3- Neutral
4- Agree
5- Strongly Agree
PART II.
PERCEPTIONS 5 4 3 2 1
Forecasting is important in my work.
The ability to make good forecasts is more important for B2B sales
than for B2C sales.
I have attended professional sales forecasting seminars/programs.
I personally use only judgments to prepare forecasts.
I use Excel with add-in features to prepare forecasts.
I use only basic native Excel functions to prepare forecasts.
I use professional forecasting software when preparing forecasts.

I wish I had more training about how to develop forecasts.

My employer provides good forecasting software to help me make
forecasts.
My forecasts are taken seriously by others in the organization.
My organization provides support for my continuing education
related to forecasting.
Over the last five years the importance of forecasting in sales
functions has increased.
In today’s environment quantitative forecast methods should be
used more than qualitative methods.
Quantitative forecasts are usually more accurate than qualitative
forecasts.
The accuracy of my forecasts is influential in determining my
compensation.
CURRICULUM VITAE:

Name: Hillary Lynn R. Rodrigo

Age: 20 years’ old
Gender: Female
Birthdate: October 16, 2000
Place of birth: General Santos City
Educational Attainment
Elementary: Romana C. Acharon Elementary School
Junior High school: General Santos City National High School
Senior High school: General Santos City National High School
College: Mindanao State University – General Santos City

Name: Erica B. Tesnado

Age: 21 years old
Gender: Female
Birthdate: May 12, 2000
Place of birth: General Santos City
Educational Attainment
Elementary: Romana C. Acharon Elementary School
Junior High school: General Santos City National High School
Senior High school: Notre Dame of Dadiangas University
College: Mindanao State University – General Santos City

Name: Shaira Villaflor

Age: 21 years old
Gender: Female
Birthdate: May 29, 2000
Place of birth: General Santos City
Educational Attainment
Elementary: Romana C. Acharon Elementary School
Junior High school: General Santos City National High School
Senior High school: Notre Dame of Dadiangas University
College: Mindanao State University – General Santos City