SVEUILITE U MOSTARU

EKONOMSKI FAKULTET

MODEL LINEARNOG TRENDA I

MODEL TREND POLINOMA
DRUGOG STUPNJA
Pristupni rad

Mentor:
doc. dr. sc. Zora Marijanovi

Studenti:
Dario Grbei
Mario Grbei

Mostar, oujak 2010. godine

Studij:

Poslovna ekonomija VII/1

Smjer:

Menadment

Godina studija:

Semestar:

Ljetni (6)

Predmet:

Statistike metode za poslovno

upravljanje

Predmetni profesor:

doc. dr. sc. Zora Marijanovi

Predmetni asistent:

asist. Anela olak

Studenti:

Dario Grbei

14821/06

Mario Grbei 14087/05

Zadatak: Ocijeniti model trend polinoma drugog

stupnja
Tablica: Prijevoz robe u eljeznikom prometu na podruju "X"

Godine
Xi
1995 1
1996 2
1997 3
1998 4
1999 5
2000 6
2001 7
2002 8
2003 9
1
2004 0
1
2005 1
6
Ukupno
6

Yi Prevezeno robe u (000 t)

336
247
185
181
243
311
385
450
523
612
750
4223

Koristei formulu "Regression" dobiveni su sljedei rezultati

Godine
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
2002.
2003.
2004.
2005.

Xi

Xi

1
1
2
4
3
9
4 16
5 25
6 36
7 49
8 64
9 81
1
0 100
1
1 121

Yi
Predicted Yi
Prevezeno
Prevezeno robe
robe u
u (000 t)
(1000 t)
336
289,601399
247
251,204196
185
231,89324
181
231,668531
243
250,53007
311
288,477855
385
345,511888
450
421,632168
523
516,838695

Residuals

Residuals
kvadrirano

46,3986014
-4,204195804
-46,89324009
-50,66853147
-7,53006993
22,52214452
39,48811189
28,36783217
6,161305361

2152,83
17,67526
2198,976
2567,3
56,70195
507,247
1559,311
804,7339
37,96168

612

631,131469

-19,13146853

366,0131

750

764,51049

-14,51048951

210,5543

Ukupno

6
6 506

4223

10479,3

Prosjeno prevezeno po god. =383,90909

Standardna devijacija = 30,86
Koeficijent varijacije =8,038361

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression
Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0,9843
0,9689
0,9611
36,193
11

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observatio
n
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Predicted Yi Prevezeno robe u (000 t)

Residuals

289,6013986
251,2041958
231,8932401
231,6685315
250,5300699
288,4778555
345,5118881
421,6321678
516,8386946
631,1314685
764,5104895

46,3986
-4,2042
-46,8932
-50,6685
-7,53007
22,52214
39,48811
28,36783
6,161305
-19,1315
-14,5105

ANOVA
df
Regressio
n
Residual
Total

SS
2
8
10

MS

326231,6 163115,8
10479,3 1309,9131
336710,9

F
124,524144

Significance F
9,38212E-07

Coefficient
s
Intercep
t
Xi
Xi2

Standard
Error

t Stat

347,08 39,74713
-67,027 15,22346
9,5431 1,235599

P-value

8,7323243
-4,402846
7,7234787

2,3124E-05
0,00227807
5,6201E-05

Upper
95%

Lower 95%

255,427797 438,7419
-102,1319437 -31,9212
6,69382686 12,39242

Jednadba parabolinog trenda je Y=347,08 - 67,02X + 9,54X

Yi Prevezeno robe u (1000 t)

Prijevoz robe u eljeznikom prometu

Yi Prevezeno
robe u (1000
t)

1000
800
600

Predicted Yi
Prevezeno
robe u (1000
t)

400
200
0
0

10

15

Xi

Godina
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

Broj
zaposlenih
1196
1195
1187
1272
1263
1258
1272
1289
1330
1335

xt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0,86297325
R Square
0,74472283
Adjusted R
Square
0,693667396
Standard Error
17,51652281
Observations
7
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
5
6

SS
4475,571
1534,143
6009,714

MS
4475,571
306,8286

F
14,58655

Significanc
eF
0,012383

Intercept
1997

Coefficients
-24009,92857
12,64285714

Standard
Error
6623,937
3,310312

Predicted
1187
1250,5
1263,142857
1275,785714
1288,428571
1301,071429
1313,714286
1326,357143

Residuals
21,5
-0,14286
-17,7857
-16,4286
-12,0714
16,28571
8,642857

t Stat
-3,62472
3,819235

P-value
0,015144
0,012383

Lower 95%
-41037,3
4,13343

Upper
95%
-6982,56
21,15228

Lower
95,0%
-41037,3
4,13343

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Upper
95,0%
-6982,56
21,15228