waverlyAdvWeekRep12 12 2016pdf

Tactical Playbook Market context and trade ideas for the active trader
Week of 12 December 2016
▶▶ Stocks were strong across the board last week. We wrote that last week “should provide good information, as the baseline
expectation is for a quick recovery (and probably new highs) from current levels.” The quick upside break from daily bull
flags, to new highs in many major indexes, is strong confirmation of our long-standing bullish bias.
Waverly Advisors, LLC
▶▶ The week ahead is more complicated, as indexes are once again overextended to the upside. We caution against thinking Adam Grimes
about stocks as being “overbought” because strong trends can be overbought and can become more overbought—in fact, Chief Investment Officer
this is a characteristic of the “slide along the bands” trend structure (which is a very strong trend that can persist for some grimes@waverlyadvisors.com
time.) However, overextension always brings the potential of a short term disruption and additional volatility. info@waverlyadvisors.com
▶▶ Into this context of a potentially overextended market, we bring this week’s FOMC announcement. A rate hike is all but
expected, and we think risk factors align to favor the upside. However, these announcements always bring the possibility of Contact Sales:
a large, volatile one to two day event. (607) 684-5300
▶▶ Treasury futures continue to point lower while Eurobond futures have erased short-term bearish setups (and now tilt neu- sales@waverlyadvisors.com
tral, not bullish) following last week’s EU rate announcement. www.waverlyadvisors.com
▶▶ The USD is nearing a breakout which could lead to another sharp rally leg. Contents
▶▶ Precious metals continue to align to the downside, but we advise tight stops on existing swing shorts. No clear bias for crude
Market Insight 2
oil at this time.
U.S. Equities 3
Equity Indexes: Short-Term 5
U.S. Equity Sectors 6
Major Market Direction and Bias U.S. Individual Stocks 7
Last Week’s Performance
Short term Int. Term Volatility & Risk 9
Market (< 1 month) (2-12 months) Market Return σSpike Kpos Trend Volatility Global Stocks 10
USA Up Up USA 3.08% 2.3σ 100 Bull Quiet Rates & FX 11
Europe Up Up Europe 3.39% 2.3σ 53 Bull/Neutral Quiet Commodities 13
Asia Up Up Asia 3.56% 2.5σ 80 Bull Quiet Macroeconomics 15
10 Yr Tr Down Developed 2.77% 2.4σ 87 Bull Quiet Discretionary Trade Ideas 16
Dollar Up Up Emerging 2.99% 1.6σ 55 Bull/Neutral Quiet Relative Strength Rankings 17
30 Yr Tr (1.33%) (0.9σ) -12 Bear Normal Equity Screens & Models 18
Pound Down Down
Disclaimers & Contact 19
Euro Down Down Euro (1.00%) (0.8σ) 11 Bear Normal
Yen Down Up Yen 1.61% 0.9σ 110 Bull Normal
Gold Up Gold (1.35%) (0.6σ) 0 Bear Normal
Crude Crude (0.35%) (0.1σ) 69 Bull Normal
©2016 Waverly Advisors, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Please review disclosures on the final page of this report.
Tactical Playbook, Week of 12 December 2016
Market Insight
Markets never give us simple answers. It is always possible, at any point, to justify How many people missed much of the 2009 – 2014 rally in stocks because they
any position one wishes—long, short, or flat, in any market. Add to this the com- didn’t trust the government, the Fed, or for some other (now obviously silly) reason?
plications of multiple timeframes, and it’s easy to see why many traders seize up in How many people missed clear bullish signals over the past month because they
paralysis by analysis. This is a good week to consider what to do when we get con- were concerned about the price of oil, of gold, or the outcome of the US election?
flicting signals in markets, and how to manage those signals. Realize that these inclinations are the natural state of the trader’s mind, and the mar-
ket encourages us to do the wrong thing at the wrong time. This is part of the task of
Consider the source developing emotion control and an objective perspective.
One of the first and best lines of defense is to consider the source of the conflicting
information. For instance, if you are a purely systematic trader who is long stocks, Timeframe matters
and a family member opines that the market is due for a crash, what do you do? In Some of the worst mistakes traders and investors make come from using informa-
this case, the answer is obvious: you do nothing. You have a clear, tested system, and
tion that does not apply to the timeframe on which they trade or invest. We might
the conflicting input probably comes from someone with no real insight or exper- solidly tell a daytrader to look to short, an intermediate term (a few days to a few
tise. weeks) swing trader to do nothing, and the long-term investor to look to buy into
any dip. It doesn’t take much thought to think of scenarios where that might be true,
This same standard applies to the majority of what you read and hear, from major but what if the long term investor suddenly reacts to short term information? Chaos
media, social media, pundits, and permabears—most information that carries an ensues.
implicit bias can be quickly parsed and dismissed. Problems begin to arise when
the source of information is internal, when the trader himself generates conflicting This is another element of developing a disciplined trading plan, and the emotion
information. control to carry it out with unerring accuracy.
The plan’s the thing

More than anything else, having a clear plan that outlines what you will and will not
do is the solution to most trading problems. This plan, of course, must have an actual
edge, but having the plan is not enough—equally important is that you follow it.
Current markets do offer conflicting information, and we are assailed with concerns
at every turn. The best defense, the best guide to navigate this difficult environment,
is a disciplined trading plan and the skill to carry it out.
©2016 Waverly Advisors, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Please review disclosures on the final page of this report. 2
U.S. Equities
▶▶ US stocks closed the week with solid gains. Major indexes were up, in most
cases, around +2σ (between 3% - 5.5%)
▶▶ Last week, we wrote: “Typically, a pullback… would not extend much past
[12/02’s] lows.” The market’s explosion to new highs was a textbook example
of how a strong market should behave out of consolidation.
▶▶ This week is more complicated, with the market slightly overextended and
the FOMC due out. Neither of these factors is likely to cause a longer-term
setback. FOMC discussion is probably already priced into the market, as it
has been a focus for many months.
▶▶ We maintain our longer-term bullish bias on stocks.
U.S. Equities (continued)
U.S. Large Cap Sector Weighting

Sector Assessment Weight LastChg RelPerf
Technology Market 11/4/16 -
Financials Market 9/2/16 -
Hcare Market 7/1/16 -
Discret'nary Market 9/2/16 -
Industrials Market 9/16/16 -
Staples Market 10/10/14 -
Energy Market 9/12/14 -
Utilities Market 10/10/14 -
Materials Market 9/16/16 -
Equity Indexes: Short-Term

▶▶ After a clean rally on the daily chart, we begin this week with more potential for
conflict.
▶▶ A minor setback is somewhat overdue, but expect that any weakness will quickly
(within a few days) give way to further strength.
▶▶ Should the market sell off, we do not see a strong edge for holding short exposure
overnight, and would not do so in instruments that do not offer nearly 24 hour
trading.
▶▶ Expect that the market will make little headway in front of the FOMC this week.
The FOMC announcement could lead to some much larger volatility, but, again,
we emphasize that the directional tilt on the daily chart is strongly to the upside.
Gap & Risk Analysis

Market ATR 20 Avg Gap% Gaps
S&P 500 15.48 6.23 15.6%
R2K 18.06 4.25 10.6%
MiniDow 115 53 15.0%
Nasdaq 58.23 14.53 12.8%
U.S. Equity Sectors

▶▶ Still no clarity to sector flows, though we expect leadership in Financials and
Industrials to persist.
▶▶ However, adding to exposure or initiating overweights at these potentially
overextended levels is problematic. From a timing perspective, this is not the
spot.
▶▶ We have no adjustment to sector biases or allocations again this week.
▶▶ We are watching developing patterns in Discretionary and Technology for
evidence of further potential leadership here.
▶▶ We hold no over or underweights at this time and prefer to wait for clarity
before committing risk to specific sectors.
Sector Leaders & Laggards

Leaders RIG!*, HP!*, DO!*, HES!*, BHI!, CHK!*
Energy
Laggards KMI, SE, WMB, OXY, PXD, XOM
Leaders UAL!*, PWR!*, URI!*, DAL!*, ALK!*, AAL!*

Industrials
Laggards FTV, NLSN, TDG, AYI, ALLE, EFX
Leaders NVDA, WDC!, MU, ADSK!, JNPR!*, ADI

Technology
Laggards ATVI, CTL, XRX, FIS, CA, FB
Leaders FCX, NUE!*, CF!, FMC!*, IP!*, MOS!*

Materials
Laggards WRK, AA, NEM, AVY, SHW, IFF
Leaders BBY!*, HAR!*, BWA!*, KSS, RCL!*, DRI!*

Discretionary
Laggards CMG, TRIP, NWL, HBI, JCI, MAT
Leaders CMA!*, BAC!*, RF!*, GS!*, KEY!*, CFG!*

Fin Svcs
Laggards SPGI, AFL, MCO, WLTW, AON, AJG
Leaders AMT, O, SPG, KIM, MAC, FRT

Real Estate
Laggards HST!*, CBG!*, WY!, VNO!, PLD, EQR
Leaders KR, WFM, CPB!, COST!*, ADM!*, RAI

Staples
Laggards TSN, MNST, PM, CL, HRL, CVS
Leaders UNH!, ANTM, DGX!*, DVA!*, HUM, AET

Healthcare
Laggards MNK, ILMN, VRTX, ENDP, AGN, LLY
Leaders NRG!*, EXC!, DTE, CNP, AEE, SCG

Utilities
Laggards FE, NI, SO, ETR, NEE, PCG
Key: ! = overextension, !* = extreme overextension
U.S. Individual Stocks

▶▶ Last week’s strength was good confirmation of our bullish bias. Watch FOMC as
a possible inflection this week, but probabilities strongly favor continued upside.
▶▶ We are willing to “chase” some good breakouts this week; in other words, be will-
ing to pay for slightly more extended stocks than usual.
▶▶ It also makes sense to bring more shorts into the book, after a few weeks of focus-
ing more heavily on long exposure.
▶▶ Best long candidates are breakouts underway or bull flags about to break to new
highs. Relative strength is an important consideration—do not focus on lagging
stocks.
▶▶ Best short candidates are simple bear flags.
▶▶ In both cases, consider patterns on weekly charts, as well.
Example Trade Entries

▶▶ Buy HAL on a breakout above 54.93 against an initial stop around 50.59.
▶▶ Buy KR on a breakout above 35.00 against an initial stop around 32.34.
▶▶ Buy TGT on a breakout above 78.75 against an initial stop around 75.87.
▶▶ Sell (short) IGT on a breakdown below 24.89 against an initial stop around
26.51.
▶▶ Sell (short) SLW on a breakdown below 17.84 against an initial stop around
20.28.
Key: Near (yellow) and Far (red) stops for daily bars. Colored band beneath the chart indicates trend condition (bright green to bright red = strong bull to strong bear trend.)
U.S. Individual Stocks (continued)
Volatility & Risk

Forecast Volatility
Average realized volatility over the next month is expected to be 8.2%
Volatility is currently roughly in-line with the forecast.
Current Volatility (and one year review)
20HVol 60HVol 120HVol 252HVol VIX
Now 7.1% 9.3% 11.7% 13.7% 11.8%
Max (1 yr) 23.9% 20.7% 20.8% 17.2% 28.1%
Min (1 yr) 4.8% 9.3% 10.8% 13.6% 11.3%
Percentile 13.1% 0.0% 18.7% 0.3% 2.7%
Avg (5 yr) 12.3% 12.7% 12.9% 13.0% 15.3%

SPX Price Forecast (using volatility derived from HVol(20).)
1 week 1 month 2 month 3 month 6 month 1 year

95%+ 2,330.34 2,406.74 2,474.61 2,529.73 2,664.71 2,904.02
mean 2,262.08 2,269.74 2,280.00 2,290.30 2,321.50 2,391.62
95%- 2,193.81 2,132.75 2,085.38 2,050.87 1,978.28 1,879.22
Global Stocks
▶▶ Global stocks were generally strong last week. Europe finally showed good
strength, as did many leading Asian economies.
▶▶ Patterns now appear to favor a short-term continuation of the global rally.
▶▶ A notable exception is China, which shows patterns aligning to favor a short-
term decline.
▶▶ Expect that Developed indexes will catch up with Emerging indexes, and
likely outstrip them through 2017 if the rally persists.
▶▶ Nothing has changed regarding our longer-term bias: expect more upside in
stocks and for the US to lead any global rally.
Rates & FX
▶▶ Eurobonds rallied on the EU rate announcement last week, and have retreat-
ed to a short-term neutral position; though bearish patterns have lost their
hold, do not assume that markets will tilt bullish. Neutral is a valid outcome.
▶▶ US Treasuries continue to point lower.
▶▶ The US Dollar may be leaning toward a new leg in its ongoing uptrend. There
are no technical factors that suggest anything but continued strength from
the Dollar.
▶▶ Swing trades in currencies are a bit conflicted, but we see clear support for
lower EURUSD prices over timeframes extending out multiple weeks. Other
pairs and crosses will likely take directional cues from both the EUR and the
USD.
Rates & FX (continued)
Commodities
Metals:
▶▶ Precious metals are in clear short-term downtrends, but the risks tilt toward
sharp spikes against shorts. Watch silver for clearer directional cues than gold
this week.
Energy:
▶▶ Crude oil has rallied back to the upper end of the larger ranges, but this is not
short-term bullish. No directional bias at this time, and longer-term down-
trend is still in effect.
▶▶ Natural gas is set for further strength.
Foods & Softs:
▶▶ Grains show patterns suggestion further weakness.
Commodities (continued)
Macroeconomics
▶▶ Some sentiment measures show that the Consumer may be gaining in confidence
and strength. U of M reports that consumers are citing economic growth from
new policy as a major source of confidence.
▶▶ Some factory measures point to further strength. Declines in inventories are bull-
ish for production.
▶▶ The strong Dollar, with every technical support for further strength, will be a con-
tinued drag on exports and will likely dampen any recovery.
▶▶ FOMC will be a key datapoint this week. A rate hike is generally expected—this is
likely priced fully, tilting risk factors solidly to the upside.
▶▶ Wednesday will be important this week: a battery of datapoints begin the day, with
the FOMC in the afternoon. CPI and Philly Fed follow on Thursday, with Hous-
ing Starts aligning with Friday’s quadruple witching.
Discretionary Trade Ideas

Date In L/S Size Contract Type Price In InitStop Last Target Stop StopATR CurrentRisk Open% Open%R Total P&L
11/10/16 S 1/2 Gold (Feb) PB 1,279.7 1,329.7 1,161.4 N/A 1,191.0 1.5 Profit 9.2% 2.4x 1.7x
11/18/16 S 1/2 Gold (Feb) PB 1,220.0 1,255.0 1,161.4 N/A 1,191.0 1.5 Profit 4.8% 1.7x 1.3x
12/5/16 L 1/2 R2K futures (Dec) PB 1,331.00 1,298.00 1,388.50 N/A 1,372.00 0.9 Profit 4.3% 1.7x 1.4x
12/5/16 S Full USDCAD I/PB 1.33000 1.37500 1.31750 1.28500 1.35000 3.6 44% 0.9% 0.3x 0.3x
Key: I = Intermediate-term (otherwise it is short-term), PB = Pullback, A = Anti, FT = Failure Test, BO = Breakout
Commentary
▶▶ Our trades continue to perform well.
▶▶ We are focused on limiting risk in existing positions, using stops which might seem to be extremely tight under some conditions. These are essentially “profit-taking”
trailing stops, and are appropriate given the tightly coiled nature of many of these markets.
▶▶ We have few setups on the list at the beginning of the week, but several entries in commodities may show mid-week. Check our daily note for updates.
Potential entries
▶▶ Sell GBPUSD 1.24700, against an initial stop around 1.28700.
*All breakout entries should only be held if confirmed by a strong/weak close (for a buy/sell) on the day of trade entry.
Note: These are a distillation of our quantitative and discretionary work. In a sense, they are specific trade examples of our bigger picture tactical themes. Please contact us
for further information on our discretionary and systematic trading approaches.
Relative Strength Rankings Tactical Playbook, Week of 12 December 2016
International Now Chg VRat US Sectors (SP1500) Now Chg VRat US Industries (Top) Now Chg VRat US Industries (Bottom) Now Chg VRat
Russia (NDQ OMX 15) 1 0 1.2 Financials 1 0 0.5 Airlines 1 2 1.4 Comps & Peripherals 35 -5 0.8
Greece 2 8 1.3 Industrials 2 0 1.0 Commercial Banks 2 0 0.4 Chemicals 36 -4 0.9
Canada 3 -1 0.5 Energy 3 0 0.2 Metals & Mining 3 -2 0.8 Internet & Catalog Ret 37 7 0.6
Brazil 4 1 0.5 Materials 4 0 0.8 Construction & Eng 4 5 0.3 Specialty Retail 38 -5 1.3
Taiwan 5 2 0.9 Information Tech 5 1 0.8 Thrifts & Mrtg Finace 5 8 0.6 Distributors 39 2 0.8
Australia 6 0 0.6 Consumer Discretionary 6 -1 1.0 Consumer Finance 6 4 0.7 Communications Equip 40 -2 0.9
S&P 500 Index 7 -3 0.7 Telcom Svcs 7 0 1.1 Trading Cos & Dists 7 -3 0.3 Building Products 41 -12 0.4
S Africa 8 12 0.5 Utilities 8 0 0.5 Road & Rail 8 -2 1.2 IT Svcs 42 3 1.3
Thailand 9 -6 0.4 Consumer Staples 9 1 1.1 Construction Materials 9 -4 0.3 Industrial Conglomerates 43 -8 1.2
Japan 10 -1 0.9 Health Care 10 -1 0.7 Energy Equip & Svcs 10 -3 0.2 Div Telcom Svcs 44 -1 1.1
Sweden 11 3 0.7 US Industry Groups Now Chg VRat Capital Markets 11 3 0.6 Internet Soft &Svcs 45 6 0.6
Indonesia 12 0 0.4 Banks 1 0 0.4 Elec Equip & Cmpnnts 12 4 0.9 Household Durables 46 4 0.9
Germany 13 5 1.3 Transportation 2 0 1.4 Machinery 13 -5 0.8 HCare Prov & Svcs 47 -22 0.3
France 14 1 1.1 Diversified Financials 3 0 0.6 Paper & Forest Products 14 7 0.7 Professional Svcs 48 4 0.5
Arabia Titans 50 15 -7 0.7 Semis & Semis Equip 4 3 0.6 Div Financial Svcs 15 -4 1.0 Leisure Equip & Prds 49 -7 0.8
S Korea 16 0 1.2 Automobiles & Compnts 5 7 1.1 Semis & Semi Equip 16 4 0.6 Multi-Utilities 50 -3 0.6
Nthrlands 17 4 1.1 Energy 6 -1 0.2 Auto Components 17 31 1.3 Food Products 51 4 1.0
Singapore 18 -7 1.1 Insurance 7 -1 0.5 Automobiles 18 6 1.0 Water Utilities 52 -6 0.4
Finland 19 0 1.6 Materials 8 0 0.8 Air Freight & Logistics 19 -4 1.0 Tobacco 53 0 0.8
Mexico 20 6 0.2 Capital Goods 9 -5 0.9 Insurance 20 -1 0.5 Food & Staples Ret 54 -5 1.0
UK 21 -4 0.4 Media 10 1 0.6 Wireless Telcom Svcs 21 16 0.6 REITs 55 -19 1.5
Hong Kong 22 -9 0.6 Tech Hardware & Equip 11 -1 0.7 Div Consumer Svcs 22 6 0.3 Electric Utilities 56 -2 0.4
Switzerland 23 -1 1.1 Consumer Svcs 12 -3 0.8 Comm Svcs & Supplies 22 1 0.5 Beverages 57 6 1.1
Phlippnes 24 0 1.1 Commercial & Prof Svcs 13 0 0.5 Electrical Equip 24 -6 0.7 Household Products 58 0 0.9
India (SP India 10) 25 -2 0.7 Retailing 14 0 1.0 Oil, Gas&Consmble Fuels 25 -3 0.3 HCare Equip & Supply 59 0 0.3
Israel 26 -1 1.2 Software & Svcs 15 3 0.9 Marine 26 14 0.8 Txtils, Apprl & Lux Gds 60 4 1.5
US Mkt Cap Indexes Now Chg VRat Telcom Svcs 16 0 1.1 Containers & Packaging 27 -1 0.7 Life Scis Tools & Svcs 61 -1 0.7
S&P SmallCap 600 Index 1 0 0.6 Utilities 17 3 0.5 Multiline Retail 28 -11 0.7 Real Estate Mgmt&Dev 62 0 0.8
Russell MicroCap Index 2 0 0.6 Food Beverage & Tobacco 18 4 0.9 Aerospace & Defence 29 -17 0.9 Personal Products 63 3 0.7
Russell 2000 Index 3 0 0.7 Cons Durables & Apparel 19 2 1.3 Media 30 1 0.6 BioTech 64 -7 0.8
US Value 4 0 0.7 Health Care Equip & Svcs 20 -3 0.4 Ind Pwr Prod & Trdrs 31 25 0.5 Pharmaceuticals 65 -4 0.9
DJ Wilshire 5000 Comp 5 0 0.6 Food & Staples Retailing 21 -2 1.0 Htls Rests & Leisure 32 -5 0.9 Health Care Tech 66 -1 0.7
S&P 500 Index 6 0 0.7 Real Estate 22 -7 1.5 Software 33 6 1.0
S&P 100 Index 7 0 0.8 Household & Prsnl Prod 23 1 0.8 Gas Utilities 34 0 0.6
US Growth 8 0 0.5 Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci 24 -1 0.8
Equity Screens & Models

Equity Screens, Trading Models, and Systems are available in the Excel attachment to this email.
Summary of Equity Screens:

▶▶ Big Movers: highlights stocks that have had large volatility-adjusted moves the previous trading day.
▶▶ Historical Movers: A look at the big movers screen, highlighting the largest moves over the past 10 trading days. This is a tool for finding pullbacks and for
measuring market reaction to these large moves.
▶▶ In Play: Highlights stocks that are trading with exceptional volume and activity, relative to their own longer-term trading history.
▶▶ Consecutive Closes: an overbough/oversold screen based on consecutive closes in one direction.
▶▶ Extension: a long/short model for stocks, with a focused edge for short-term trades.
▶▶ Pullback Buy & Pullback Sell: Long/short screens highlighting stocks that are potential candidates for pullback trades. Typical use of this screen would then
involve a look at the names on this list, choosing the best patterns and examples.
▶▶ RS Strong: highlights the strongest relative strength stocks in the market, based on a relatively short-term, volatility-adjusted measure of relative strength.
Disclaimers & Contact Tactical Playbook, Week of 12 December 2016
Waverly Advisors, LLC
5607 Pittsford-Palmyra Rd. #1034

Pittsford, NY 14534
(607) 684-5300 or info@waverlyadvisors.com
The Tactical Playbook (“The Report”) is a newsletter published by Waverly Advisors LLC. Receipt of The Report is subject to terms of service: http://waverlyadvisors.com/legal/terms-of-service/
Waverly Advisors uses reasonable care in preparing and publishing The Report, however, Waverly Advisors does not guarantee The Report’s accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed in The Report
are subject to change without notice. The Report, and www.waverlyadvisors.com (“The Website”) and all information provided therein should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction
involving the purchase or sale of securities, futures contracts, commodities, currencies and/or options thereon. The risk of loss in trading securities, futures contracts, commodities, currencies and/or op-
tions thereon is substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition and discuss with their financial advisor(s). The information
provided in The Report is not designed to replace your own decision-making processes.
Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not
actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to
the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Copyright © Waverly Advisors, LLC 2016. All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Waverly Advisors, LLC. None of the
material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Waverly Advisors, LLC.
This report is limited for the sole use of clients of Waverly Advisors, LLC. Any redistribution of this report or of its content will violate the terms of service.

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Tactical Playbook Market context and trade ideas for the active trader

Week of 12 December 2016

The plan’s the thing

U.S. Equities (continued)

U.S. Large Cap Sector Weighting

Equity Indexes: Short-Term

Gap & Risk Analysis

U.S. Equity Sectors

Sector Leaders & Laggards

Leaders UAL!*, PWR!*, URI!*, DAL!*, ALK!*, AAL!*

Leaders NVDA, WDC!, MU, ADSK!, JNPR!*, ADI

Leaders FCX, NUE!*, CF!, FMC!*, IP!*, MOS!*

Leaders BBY!*, HAR!*, BWA!*, KSS, RCL!*, DRI!*

Leaders CMA!*, BAC!*, RF!*, GS!*, KEY!*, CFG!*

Leaders AMT, O, SPG, KIM, MAC, FRT

Leaders KR, WFM, CPB!, COST!*, ADM!*, RAI

Leaders UNH!, ANTM, DGX!*, DVA!*, HUM, AET

Leaders NRG!*, EXC!, DTE, CNP, AEE, SCG

Key: ! = overextension, !* = extreme overextension

U.S. Individual Stocks

Example Trade Entries

U.S. Individual Stocks (continued)

Volatility & Risk

20HVol 60HVol 120HVol 252HVol VIX

Now 7.1% 9.3% 11.7% 13.7% 11.8%

Max (1 yr) 23.9% 20.7% 20.8% 17.2% 28.1%

Min (1 yr) 4.8% 9.3% 10.8% 13.6% 11.3%

Percentile 13.1% 0.0% 18.7% 0.3% 2.7%

Avg (5 yr) 12.3% 12.7% 12.9% 13.0% 15.3%

1 week 1 month 2 month 3 month 6 month 1 year

Rates & FX (continued)

▶▶ Grains show patterns suggestion further weakness.

Discretionary Trade Ideas

Key: I = Intermediate-term (otherwise it is short-term), PB = Pullback, A = Anti, FT = Failure Test, BO = Breakout

Equity Screens & Models

Summary of Equity Screens:

Waverly Advisors, LLC

5607 Pittsford-Palmyra Rd. #1034

You might also like

Leaders UAL!, PWR!, URI!, DAL!, ALK!, AAL!

Leaders FCX, NUE!, CF!, FMC!, IP!, MOS!

Leaders BBY!, HAR!, BWA!, KSS, RCL!, DRI!*

Leaders CMA!, BAC!, RF!, GS!, KEY!, CFG!

Leaders KR, WFM, CPB!, COST!, ADM!, RAI

Leaders UNH!, ANTM, DGX!, DVA!, HUM, AET