Hydro and Agro

Informatics Institute
Ministry of Science and Technology
Thailand

Development of an operational storm surge forecasting

system for the Gulf of Thailand

Watin Thanathanphon, Narongrit Luangdilok, Piyamarn Sisomphon

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 Introduction

 The Gulf of Thailand receives a direct

impact from the monsoon winds and
normally receives the effect of tropical
storm which can produce a larger wave
propagating into the inner gulf.

 Storm surge is the serious hazards to

coastal regions, such as flooding,
coastal erosion and devastating the
properties of people who live in the
coastal areas.

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Objective

 To develop and implement a fully automated storm surge and wave forecasting
and early warning system for the Gulf of Thailand

 To support decision making for better management of inland & coastal flooding

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 Gulf of Thailand

 Semi-enclosed sea located in the

western part of South China Sea.
 The average depth is 44 m and the
maximum depth is 86 m.
 Southwest monsoon (May - October)
Northeast monsoon October - February)
 The previously 6 disastrous tropical
cyclones crossed over Thailand
• typhoon “VAE” (Oct, 1952)
• typhoon “HARRIET” (Oct, 1962)
• tropical storm “RUTH” (Nov, 1970)
• tropical storm Forrest (Nov, 1992)
• typhoon “GAY” (Nov, 1989)
• typhoon “LINDA” (Nov, 1997)

The disastrous tropical cyclones crossed over Thailand

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Modelling System

 Hydrodynamic Model
Delft3D Flexible Mesh (Delft3D FM)
 Wave Model
Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN)
 Numerical Weather Prediction Model
Coupled atmosphere and ocean modeling
system (WRF- ROMS)
 Early Warning System
Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform

The components of storm surge modelling system

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Model Extent
Hydrodynamic Model Wave Model

Grid: Unstructured grid Grid: Rectangular grid

Resolution: 250 m along Thai coast, 1,000 m
along other coasts, 8,000 m over deep waters.
Boundary conditions: TPXO 7.2 Global Inverse
Tide model (14 constituents: M2, S2, N2, K2,
K1, O1, P1, Q1, MF, MM, M4, MS4, MN4, SA)
Resolution: 1,500 m for regional model, 300 m
for local model
Boundary conditions: WAVEWATCH III (wave
height, wave period, wave direction)

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Bathymetry Data

Bathymetry
Surveying
Nautical charts
GEBCO 30 arc-seconds
 Local survey data
Department of Mineral Resources
 Nautical charts
Royal Thai Navy
 GEBCO 30 arc-seconds
British Oceanographic Data Center

The bathymetry data used for hydrodynamic and wave models

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System Architecture
An overview of the early warning system workflow
 Automatic import of real time data
feeds provided to the system
 Pre-processing of meteo-data
(forecasts) before using it in the
hydrodynamic and wave models
 Execution of the hydrodynamic and
wave modelling framework
 Visualization of measurement data
and forecasts
 Exporting of forecasts in various
format
 Dissemination of forecasts (e.g.
internet, intranet)
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Model Validation – Hydrodynamic model
Ko Lak
water level

tide only

surge only

Statistics of the comparison of observed data and hydrodynamic model results

RMSE, m RMSE, m RMSE, m
Station R2 (total) R2 (tide) R2 (surge)
(total) (tide) (surge)
Ao Udom 0.96 0.97 0.40 0.15 0.12 0.10
Ban Lam 0.94 0.96 0.33 0.18 0.15 0.11
Klong Wan 0.95 0.98 0.54 0.11 0.07 0.09
Laem Ngop 0.95 0.97 0.55 0.10 0.08 0.07
Narathiwat 0.84 0.89 0.63 0.12 0.09 0.08
Prasae 0.94 0.96 0.50 0.12 0.09 0.08
Pattani 0.75 0.77 0.65 0.14 0.12 0.07
Sichon 0.90 0.96 0.62 0.12 0.07 0.09
Samutsakorn 0.95 0.97 0.42 0.16 0.13 0.09
Thachalaep 0.85 0.86 0.55 0.17 0.16 0.07
Bang Pakong 0.93 0.95 0.29 0.19 0.16 0.11
Samutsongkhram 0.92 0.94 0.23 0.21 0.18 0.11
Pak Phanang 0.74 0.80 0.43 0.19 0.15 0.13
Rayong 0.96 0.97 0.58 0.11 0.08 0.07
Ko Samui 0.83 0.90 0.26 0.21 0.15 0.15
Ko Lak 0.93 0.97 0.40 0.13 0.08 0.11 9
Average 0.90 0.93 0.46 0.15 0.12 0.10
Model Validation – Wave model
Lat: 10.5°N Long: 99.75°E
wave height

wave period

wave direction

Statistics of the comparison of ERA-interim data and wave model results

Coordinates Significant wave height
Longitude Latitude R RMSE (m)
99.75 9.75 0.72 0.67
99.75 10.50 0.75 0.26
100.50 9.00 0.53 0.29
100.50 9.75 0.65 0.31
100.50 12.75 0.62 0.18
101.25 7.50 0.63 0.53
101.25 8.25 0.55 0.45
101.25 11.25 0.53 0.43
102.00 9.75 0.46 0.41
102.00 12.00 0.45 0.27
103.50 7.50 0.71 0.34
103.50 9.75 0.62 0.36
Average 0.60 0.37
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Visualization

WRF-ROMS meteorological forecast Observed and simulated time series

Water level map from hydrodynamic model Significant wave height map from wave model

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 Conclusions
 The overall Delft3D FM hydrodynamic model
and SWAN wave model performance is
sufficient to forecast the state of the Gulf of
Thailand
 Delft-FEWS system also provides flexibility to
adjust data format, connect the models and
present the real time data and model output
 This system is among the first fully
automated storm surge forecasting system
that combine all relevant phenomena. After
few years in operation it is proved its
performance to provide sufficient
information to support decision making for
coastal management and early warning
procedures to protect and reduce the losses
in the Gulf of Thailand.
 Capacity building & Research foundation

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Acknowledgements

 Thank you to Royal Thai Navy, Marine Department and Department of Mineral
Resources for providing data during the development of this project

 Special thanks to Deltares, The Netherlands for being a good partner, sharing
knowledge and hands-on experiences

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Hydro and Agro
Informatics Institute
Ministry of Science and

www.haii.or.th ●
www.thaiwater.net

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