Global warming dials up our risks, UN

report says
'Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate
change,' chairman says

(Note: CBC does not endorse and is not responsible for the content of external links.)

Global warming is driving humanity toward a whole new level of many risks, a United Nations
scientific panel reports, warning that the wild climate ride has only just begun.

"Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change,"

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change chairman Rajendra Pachauri said in a Monday news
conference.

Twenty-first century disasters such as killer heat waves in Europe, wildfires in the United States,
droughts in Australia and deadly flooding in Mozambique, Thailand and Pakistan highlight how
vulnerable humanity is to extreme weather, says a massive new report from a Nobel Prize-
winning group of scientists released early Monday. The dangers are going to worsen as the
climate changes even more, the report's authors said.

 Climate change report met with denial from Ottawa, NDP says
 Middle East drought could spark higher food prices
 Droughts show global warming is a 'scientific fact.'
 Global warming means food, water shortages warns UN report
 World temperatures go off the chart by 2047, study says

"We're all sitting ducks," Princeton University professor Michael Oppenheimer, one of the main
authors of the 32-volume report, said in an interview.

After several days of late-night wrangling, more than 100 governments unanimously approved
the scientist-written 49-page summary — which is aimed at world political leaders. The
summary mentions the word "risk" an average of about 5 1/2 times per page.

"Changes are occurring rapidly and they are sort of building up that risk," said the overall lead
author of the report, Chris Field of the Carnegie Institution for Science in California.

'Things are worse than we had predicted'

These risks are both big and small, according to the report. They are now and in the future. They
hit farmers and big cities. Some places will have too much water, some not enough, including
drinking water . Other risks mentioned in the report involve the price and availability of food,
and to a lesser and more qualified extent some diseases, financial costs and even world peace.
'We are going to see more and more impacts, faster and sooner than we had anticipated.'-
Saleemul Huq, UN report co-author

"Things are worse than we had predicted" in 2007, when the group of scientists last issued this
type of report, said report co-author Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for
Climate Change and Development at the Independent University in Bangladesh. "We are going
to see more and more impacts, faster and sooner than we had anticipated."

The problems have gotten so bad that the panel had to add a new and dangerous level of risks. In
2007, the biggest risk level in one key summary graphic was "high" and coloured blazing red.
The latest report adds a new level, "very high," and colours it deep purple.

You might as well call it a "horrible" risk level, said report co-author Maarten van Aalst, a top
official at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

"The horrible is something quite likely, and we won't be able to do anything about it," he said.

The report predicts that the highest level of risk would first hit plants and animals, both on land
and the acidifying oceans.

Climate change will worsen problems that society already has, such as poverty, sickness,
violence and refugees, according to the report. And on the other end, it will act as a brake
slowing down the benefits of a modernizing society, such as regular economic growth and more
efficient crop production, it says.

"In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all
continents and across the oceans," the report says.

And if society doesn't change, the future looks even worse, it says: "Increasing magnitudes of
warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts."

Poor hit hardest by global warming

While the problems from global warming will hit everyone in some way, the magnitude of the
harm won't be equal, coming down harder on people who can least afford it, the report says. It
will increase the gaps between the rich and poor, healthy and sick, young and old, and men and
women, van Aalst said.

But the report's authors say this is not a modern day version of the Four Horsemen of the
Apocalypse. Much of what they warn of are more nuanced troubles that grow by degrees and
worsen other societal ills. The report also concedes that there are uncertainties in understanding
and predicting future climate risks.
Children walk back home after school on a severely polluted day in Shijiazhuang, in northern
China's Hebei province in February. (Alexander F. Yuan/The Associated Press, File)

The report, the fifth on warming's impacts, includes risks to the ecosystems of the Earth,
including a thawing Arctic, but it is far more oriented to what it means to people than past
versions.

The report also notes that one major area of risk is that with increased warming, incredibly
dramatic but ultra-rare single major climate events, sometimes called tipping points, become
more possible with huge consequences for the globe. These are events like the melting of the
Greenland ice sheet, which would take more than 1,000 years.

"I can't think of a better word for what it means to society than the word 'risk,"' said Virginia
Burkett of the U.S. Geological Survey, one of the study's main authors. She calls global warming
"maybe one of the greatest known risks we face."

Global warming is triggered by heat-trapping gases, such as carbon dioxide, that stay in the
atmosphere for a century. Much of the gases still in the air and trapping heat came from the
United States and other industrial nations. China is now by far the No. 1 carbon dioxide polluter,
followed by the United States and India.

Rising seas worsen natural disasters

Unlike in past reports, where the scientists tried to limit examples of extremes to disasters that
computer simulations can attribute partly to man-made warming, this version broadens what it
looks at because it includes the larger issues of risk and vulnerability, van Aalst said.

Freaky storms like 2013's Typhoon Haiyan, 2012's Superstorm Sandy and 2008's ultra-deadly
Cyclone Nargis may not have been caused by warming, but their fatal storm surges were
augmented by climate change's ever rising seas, he said.

And in the cases of the big storms like Haiyan, Sandy and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the poor
were the most vulnerable, Oppenheimer and van Aalst said. The report talks about climate
change helping create new pockets of poverty and "hot spots of hunger" even in richer countries,
increasing inequality between rich and poor.

Report co-author Maggie Opondo of the University of Nairobi said that especially in places like
Africa, climate change and extreme events mean "people are going to become more vulnerable to
sinking deeper into poverty." And other study authors talked about the fairness issue with climate
change.

"Rich people benefit from using all these fossil fuels," University of Sussex economist Richard
Tol said. "Poorer people lose out."
Huq said he had hope because richer nations and people are being hit more, and "when it hits the
rich, then it's a problem" and people start acting on it.

Part of the report talks about what can be done: reducing carbon pollution and adapting to and
preparing for changing climates with smarter development.

The report echoes an earlier UN climate science panel that said if greenhouse gases continue to
rise, the world is looking at another about 3.5 or 4 degrees C of warming by 2100 instead of the
international goal of not allowing temperatures to rise more than 1.2 degrees C. The difference
between those two outcomes, Princeton's Oppenheimer said, "is the difference between driving
on an icy road at 30 mph versus 90 mph. It's risky at 30, but deadly at 90."

Tol, who is in the minority of experts here, had his name removed from the summary because he
found it "too alarmist," harping too much on risk.

But the panel vice chairman, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, said that's not quite right: "We are
pointing for reasons for alarm ... It's because the facts and the science and the data show that
there are reasons to be alarmed. It's not because we're alarmist."

Report praised
The report is based on more than 12,000 peer reviewed scientific studies. Michel Jarraud,
secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, a co-sponsor of the climate panel,
said this report was "the most solid evidence you can get in any scientific discipline."

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University who wasn't part of this
report, said he found the report "very conservative" because it is based on only peer reviewed
studies and has to be approved unanimously.

Demonstrators participate in a silent protest in front of a conference hall where the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is meeting in Yokohama, near Tokyo, Monday.
(Shizuo Kambayashi/The Associated Press)

The Obama White House hailed the report as comprehensive and authoritative. John Holdren,
the presidential science adviser, said in a written statement that "the report underscores the need
for immediate action in order to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change."
Environmental groups echoed that sentiment.

Pachauri said the UN panel doesn't tell governments what they should do, but said Holdren is
right that "it is a call for action." Without reductions in emissions, he said, impacts from
warming "could get out of control."

There is still time to adapt to some of the coming changes and reduce heat-trapping emissions, so
it's not all bad, said study co-author Patricia Romero-Lankao of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research in Colorado.
"We have a closing window of opportunity," she said. "We do have choices. We need to act
now."