COVID-19 Infection Survey

Characteristics related to having an Omicron

compatible result in those who test positive for COVID-
19

Table contact details: Esther Sutherland

Office for National Statistics
infection.survey.analysis@ons.gov.uk
Telephone: +44 (0)1329 44 7683

Date of publication: Thursday, December 23, 2021

For more information about the COVID-19 Infection Survey see our bulletin
Weekly bulletin
Contents

Table 1a - Most recent fortnight: core demographic characteristics

Table 1b - Most recent fortnight: Screened characteristics
Table 1c - Most recent fortnight: single year of age
Results
Modelled likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result, by core demographic characteristic,
Modelled likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result, by screened characteristic, UK
Conditional likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result, by single year of age, UK
demographic characteristic, UK
ned characteristic, UK
gle year of age, UK
Contents
Table 1a
Modelled likelihood of testing positive with an Omicron probable result in people who test positive for COVID-19, by core
03 December 2021 to 16 December 2021

Core characteristic Category

Sex Male (Reference)
Sex Female
Household size 1 (Reference)
Household size 2
Household size 3
Household size 4
Household size 5+
Region London (Reference)
Region North East
Region North West
Region Yorkshire
Region East Midlands
Region West Midlands
Region East of England
Region South East
Region South West
Region Northern Ireland
Region Scotland
Region Wales
Multigenerational household No (Reference)
Multigenerational household Yes
Ethnicity White (Reference)
Ethnicity Ethnic minorities
Deprivation 10 unit increase in deprivation score
Deprivation score 10
Deprivation score 20
Deprivation score 30
Deprivation score 40
Deprivation score 50
Deprivation score 60
Deprivation score 70
Deprivation score 80
Deprivation score 90
Deprivation score 100
Urban or rural Major urban (Reference)
Urban or rural Urban city town
Urban or rural Rural town
Urban or rural Rural village
Source: Office for National Statistics - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

Notes:
1. All results are provisional and subject to revision.
2. Only individuals who test as a strong positive (Ct<30) are included, since weaker positive results of the Delta variant could be identifi
3. Positive test results with gene pattern OR + N are defined as being probable Omicron, it is possible that some OR + N cases may not
viral load should minimise this.

4. These statistics refer to infections occurring in private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care home
5. Deprivation is based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) score or equivalent scoring method for the devolved administration
unit increase in deprivation score is associated with the likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19.
6. The odds ratios in this table indicate the likelihood of an individual testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result gi
a decrease in the likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result compared with the reference category. A
with the reference category. An odds ratio less than one indicates a decreased likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omic

7. More detailed information about the methods used can be found in our technical article: analysis of populations in the UK by risk of
8. P-values can be used to establish the certainty of a difference between two categories. The smaller the p-value, the stronger the sta
9. Some figures have been suppressed (*) due to low sample counts and secondary suppression has been applied where appropriate.
people who test positive for COVID-19, by core demographic characteristic, UK

Estimated likelihood of
testing positive for COVID-19
with an Omicron probable Lower 95% Upper 95%
result (odds ratio) confidence interval confidence interval p-value
1 - - -
0.97 0.77 1.23 0.822
1 - - -
0.68 0.45 1.02 0.059
0.52 0.34 0.81 0.004
0.43 0.27 0.67 0.000
0.33 0.19 0.55 0.000
1 - - -
0.09 0.02 0.27 0.000
0.24 0.14 0.4 0.000
0.14 0.06 0.29 0.000
0.38 0.18 0.78 0.010
0.22 0.11 0.41 0.000
0.81 0.48 1.36 0.424
0.51 0.31 0.85 0.010
0.28 0.14 0.54 0.000
0.24 0.08 0.59 0.004
0.95 0.57 1.57 0.845
0.18 0.07 0.39 0.000
1 - - -
1.24 0.79 1.90 0.339
1 - - -
1.42 0.99 2.05 0.057
1 0.96 1.05 0.989
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
 - - - -
1 - - -
0.68 0.45 1.03 0.069
0.7 0.4 1.23 0.219
0.49 0.27 0.88 0.020

er positive results of the Delta variant could be identified as probable Omicron. The model identifies the probability of these individuals having prob
micron, it is possible that some OR + N cases may not be Omicron as some genes may not be detected (for example, weaker Delta infections), howe

es exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.
alent scoring method for the devolved administrations. The score ranges from 1, which represents most deprived, up to 100, which represents leas
tive for COVID-19.
tive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result given a particular characteristic/variable. When a characteristic/variable has an odds ratio of on
bable result compared with the reference category. An odds ratio greater than one indicates an increased likelihood of testing positive for COVID-1
kelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result compared with the reference category.

ical article: analysis of populations in the UK by risk of testing positive for COVID-19, September 2021. Please note that since the technical article we
tegories. The smaller the p-value, the stronger the statistical evidence of a difference in the likelihood of testing positive. Variables with a p-value o
ary suppression has been applied where appropriate.
Number of
Omicron
probable Total
positives sample
241 1,041
254 1,050
71 169
158 495
108 399
111 661
47 367
247 551
3 58
23 165
8 112
15 101
14 127
53 203
59 305
18 172
6 68
40 122
9 107
457 1,874
38 217
414 1,890
81 201
- -
12 84
41 132
56 174
64 222
42 191
63 244
53 248
47 240
52 270
 65 286
314 883
130 835
29 174
22 199

he probability of these individuals having probable Omicron.

(for example, weaker Delta infections), however, limiting the analysis to cases with a high

st deprived, up to 100, which represents least deprived. The odds ratio shows how a 10

haracteristic/variable has an odds ratio of one, this means there is neither an increase nor
ased likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result compared
e category.

Please note that since the technical article we have changed our approach to modelling the use of Lateral Flow Device (LFD) tests. Details can be fo
of testing positive. Variables with a p-value of more than 0.05 have no statistical evidence of a difference.
Contents
Table 1b
Modelled likelihood of testing positive with an Omicron probable result in people who test positive for COVID-19, by scree
03 December 2021 to 16 December 2021

Screening characteristic
Vaccination status
Vaccination status
Vaccination status
Vaccination status
Vaccination status
Previous COVID-19 infection
Previous COVID-19 infection
Work Status
Work Status
Work Status
Work Status
Work Status
Impact of disability in household
Impact of disability in household
Impact of disability in household
Source: Office for National Statistics - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

Notes:
1. All results are provisional and subject to revision.
2. Only individuals who test as a strong positive (Ct<30) are included, since weaker positive results of the Delta variant could be identifi
3. These statistics refer to infections occurring in private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care home

4. Positive test results with gene pattern OR + N are defined as being probable Omicron, it is possible that some OR + N cases may not
high viral load should minimise this.

5. The odds ratios in this table indicate the likelihood of an individual testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result gi
nor a decrease in the likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result compared with the reference catego
compared with the reference category. An odds ratio less than one indicates a decreased likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 w
6. More detailed information about the methods used can be found in our technical article: analysis of populations in the UK by risk of
7. P-values can be used to establish the certainty of a difference between two categories. The smaller the p-value, the stronger the sta
evidence of a difference.
8. Some figures have been suppressed (*) due to low sample counts and secondary suppression has been applied where appropriate.
9. Screening characteristics are included in the model only if characteristics/variables are significant (p<=0.05).
10. In addition to the variables in the table above, this model controls for age, region, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, household size, multi
    
   
ve with an Omicron probable result in people who test positive for COVID-19, by screened demographic characteristic, UK
   

Estimated likelihood of
testing positive for COVID-19
with an Omicron probable
Category result (odds ratio)
Not vaccinated (Reference) 1
1 dose 1.23
2 doses, more than 14 days ago 2.50
3 doses, more than 14 days ago 6.05
Status missing -
No (Reference) 1
Yes 4.34
Employed, working (Reference) 1
Employed, not working 1.82
Not working 0.66
Retired 0.93
Child/student 1.81
No one in household impacted 'A lot' (Reference) 1
Impacted 'A lot' 0.20
Someone else in household impacted 'A lot' 0.32
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

   

positive (Ct<30) are included, since weaker positive results of the Delta variant could be identified as probable Omicron. The model identifies the pr
urring in private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.

n OR + N are defined as being probable Omicron, it is possible that some OR + N cases may not be Omicron as some genes may not be detected (for

he likelihood of an individual testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result given a particular characteristic/variable. When a chara
ng positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result compared with the reference category. An odds ratio greater than one indicates an increa
An odds ratio less than one indicates a decreased likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result compared with the re
methods used can be found in our technical article: analysis of populations in the UK by risk of testing positive for COVID-19, September 2021. Plea
certainty of a difference between two categories. The smaller the p-value, the stronger the statistical evidence of a difference in the likelihood of te
*) due to low sample counts and secondary suppression has been applied where appropriate.
d in the model only if characteristics/variables are significant (p<=0.05).
ble above, this model controls for age, region, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, household size, multi-generational household, and urban/rural classificati
          
         
cteristic, UK      
       

Number of
Omicron
Lower 95% Upper 95% confidence probable
confidence interval interval p-value positives Total sample
- - - 47 559
0.66 2.28 0.519 29 148
1.32 4.89 0.006 320 1,116
2.92 12.88 0.000 99 262
- - - - 6
- - - 444 2,003
2.56 7.43 0.000 51 88
- - - 360 1,161
0.62 5.08 0.261 8 21
0.33 1.26 0.225 14 78
0.45 1.88 0.832 41 179
0.78 4.27 0.171 72 652
- - - 488 1,988
0.03 0.75 0.041 * 38
0.11 0.81 0.028 5 62

         

The model identifies the probability of these individuals having probable Omicron.
establishments.

s may not be detected (for example, weaker Delta infections), however, limiting the analysis to cases with a

stic/variable. When a characteristic/variable has an odds ratio of one, this means there is neither an increase
han one indicates an increased likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result
esult compared with the reference category.
-19, September 2021. Please note that since the technical article we have changed our approach to modelling the use of Lateral Flow Device (LFD) t
ence in the likelihood of testing positive. Variables with a p-value of more than 0.05 have no statistical

and urban/rural classification.

Contents
Table 1c
Predicted probability of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result, by single year of age, UK
03 December 2021 to 16 December 2021

Predicted
Omicron Lower 95% Upper 95%
probable confidence confidence
Age positivity interval interval
2 0.07 0.03 0.13
3 0.08 0.04 0.16
4 0.10 0.05 0.18
5 0.12 0.06 0.21
6 0.15 0.08 0.25
7 0.18 0.10 0.29
8 0.21 0.13 0.33
9 0.25 0.16 0.37
10 0.30 0.19 0.42
11 0.34 0.23 0.47
12 0.40 0.28 0.53
13 0.45 0.33 0.58
14 0.51 0.38 0.63
15 0.56 0.44 0.68
16 0.61 0.49 0.72
17 0.66 0.54 0.76
18 0.71 0.59 0.80
19 0.74 0.63 0.83
20 0.77 0.67 0.85
21 0.80 0.70 0.87
22 0.82 0.72 0.88
23 0.83 0.74 0.89
24 0.84 0.75 0.90
25 0.84 0.76 0.90
26 0.84 0.76 0.90
27 0.84 0.75 0.89
28 0.82 0.74 0.88
29 0.81 0.72 0.87
30 0.79 0.70 0.86
31 0.77 0.67 0.84
32 0.74 0.64 0.82
33 0.71 0.61 0.79
34 0.68 0.57 0.77
35 0.65 0.54 0.74
36 0.62 0.50 0.72
37 0.59 0.48 0.70
38 0.57 0.46 0.68
39 0.56 0.44 0.67
40 0.55 0.44 0.66
41 0.54 0.43 0.65
42 0.54 0.43 0.65
43 0.55 0.43 0.65
44 0.55 0.44 0.66
45 0.56 0.44 0.66
46 0.56 0.45 0.67
47 0.57 0.45 0.68
48 0.58 0.46 0.69
49 0.59 0.47 0.70
50 0.59 0.48 0.70
51 0.60 0.48 0.70
52 0.60 0.49 0.70
53 0.60 0.49 0.71
54 0.61 0.50 0.71
55 0.61 0.50 0.71
56 0.61 0.50 0.71
57 0.61 0.50 0.71
58 0.61 0.49 0.71
59 0.60 0.49 0.71
60 0.60 0.48 0.71
61 0.60 0.48 0.71
62 0.59 0.47 0.70
63 0.59 0.47 0.70
64 0.59 0.47 0.70
65 0.58 0.46 0.69
66 0.58 0.46 0.69
67 0.57 0.46 0.68
68 0.57 0.45 0.68
69 0.56 0.45 0.67
70 0.56 0.44 0.67
71 0.55 0.43 0.66
72 0.55 0.42 0.66
73 0.54 0.41 0.66
74 0.53 0.40 0.66
75 0.53 0.39 0.66
76 0.52 0.38 0.67
77 0.52 0.36 0.67
78 0.51 0.35 0.67
79 0.51 0.34 0.67
80 0.50 0.32 0.68
81 0.50 0.31 0.68
83 0.48 0.28 0.69
84 0.48 0.27 0.70
85+ 0.47 0.26 0.70
Source: Office for National Statistics - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

Notes:
1. All results are provisional and subject to revision.
2. These statistics refer to infections occurring in private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care home
3. Only individuals who test as a strong positive (Ct<30) are included, since weaker positive results of the Delta variant could be identifi
identifies the probability of these individuals having probable Omicron.
4. Positive test results with gene pattern OR + N are defined as being probable Omicron, it is possible that some OR + N cases may not
detected (for example, weaker Delta infections), however, limiting the analysis to cases with a high viral load should minimise this.
5. Probabilities are subject to uncertainty, given that a sample is only part of the wider population. The model provides 95% confidenc
6. More detailed information about the methods used can be found in our technical article: analysis of populations in the UK by risk of
7. These are predicted probabilities that give the trend across years of age calculated at a reference value for other factors (male, Lond
multigenerational household, living in a major urban area, 50th deprivation percentile) and should not be used as population positivity
different because of other factors not included.
ngle year of age, UK
eported in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.
he Delta variant could be identified as probable Omicron. The model

hat some OR + N cases may not be Omicron as some genes may not be
al load should minimise this.
 model provides 95% confidence intervals around the probabilities.
populations in the UK by risk of testing positive for COVID-19, September 2021.
lue for other factors (male, London, White ethnicity, household size of one, non-
be used as population positivity rates. Levels of positivity in the population may be
Contents

Earlier this week, we published some early results from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey showing th

Cases compatible with the Omicron variant are characterised by the absence of the ‘S’ gene on a positi
others being OR and N, and a high viral load. Cases with a high viral load and an absent ‘S’ gene are c
All other cases are likely to be cases of the Delta variant or its genetic descendants.

While fortnightly estimates provide a timely picture, the results can fluctuate from one fortnight to anothe
period.
This means that findings that were significant in one period may not necessarily be significant in anothe
is genuinely changing, or because we do not have sufficient individuals with that characteristic in a part
find being due to chance.

This analysis evaluates, for those who tested as a strong positive (cycle Threshold (Ct) value <30)
characteristics which were associated with individuals who had results compatible with the Omicron var
Delta cases. These effects show the relative likelihood of having a result compatible with Omicron comp
studied.

There are 2,091 positive individuals included in the analysis, of which 495 tested positive compatible wi
of ‘compatible with Omicron’ and ‘compatible with Delta’.

The model uses a similar process to our usual predictors of positivity analysis, published regularly in our Charact

Main points:

·       Age: Compared to other ages, young children testing positive for COVID-19 are less likely to have in
their 20s and 30s with COVID-19, however, are more likely to have infections compatible with the Omic

·       Deprivation: These latest data do not show an effect of deprivation on the likelihood of testing posi
positive for COVID-19.

·       Urban: Those infected with COVID-19 and living in major urban areas and urban cities/towns are m
Omicron variant compared to those living in rural areas.

·       Household size: Those infected with COVID-19 and living in households with more people are less
Omicron variant compared to those living in households with fewer people.

·       Ethnicity: There is some evidence to suggest that people who test positive, for COVID-19 who repo
positive with infections compatible with the Omicron variant compared to those who identify themselves
    

·  Reinfection: Those who have previously been infected with COVID-19 and become reinfected are m
the Omicron variant, compared with those who test positive with their first infections.
·       Vaccination status: Those who have received two or three doses of a vaccine and test positive for
compatible with the Omicron variant compared with those who are unvaccinated and test positive. It is t
effectiveness of vaccines against the Omicron variant.

Further Information:
The analysis is based only on individuals who test positive with a high viral load (Ct < 30) and have gen

Since the S gene is not detected in strong positive cases infected with the Omicron variant, those with g
the Omicron variant, and gene patterns OR + N + S, OR + S and N + S are defined as being compatible

It is possible that some OR + N cases may not be Omicron as some genes may not be detected (for ex
analysis to cases with a high viral load should minimise this. Some OR + N + S, OR + S and N + S case
small numbers, but sequencing suggests the majority (>99%) of such cases will be Delta.

Any cases with a low viral load or with different gene patterns are not included in the analysis.

All results adjust for all other factors in the model, as described in our Characteristics of people testing positive re

 Link to todays datasets (having to write again as cleaning the doc removed all comments)