LINKER: The Journal of Emerging Research in Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry ISSN: 2815-2018

Vol. 2, No. 2, (2021), pp., 1-11.

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The Journal of Emerging Research in Agriculture, Fisheries
and Forestry

Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment of the Agriculture

Sector in Isabela Province: Basis for Decision
Support Platform and Policy Innovation

Bondee L. Peñaflor and Marino R. Romero

College of Forestry and Environmental Management, Isabela State University, Philippines

Corresponding author: e-mail address: bondee.l.penaflor@isu.edu.ph

ABSTRACT

Nowadays, one of the pressing global environmental concerns is climate change and the society has a great
interest on the interconnected effects posed by this problem. With climate change, the agriculture sector is
not spared from its impacts. In this study, the vulnerability of agriculture sector in Isabela province to
climate change was assessed. Data were collected and organized following CIAT methodological
guidelines. Results show that in terms of exposure to hazards, Isabela province is highly exposed to typhoon,
flood and erosion. On the other hand, the climatic suitability map for rice under current condition showed
a moderate to high suitability in the flat and low-elevation areas of the province. The projected 2030
climatic suitability of rice provides an expansion of moderate to high suitability. These are also true with
the climatic suitability of corn, both for current and 2030 conditions. Meanwhile, the City of Ilagan and the
municipalities of Tumauini, Ramon, Alicia, Angadanan, and Jones have very high adaptive capacities.
Reasons of having very high adaptive capacity are due to adequate economic, human and natural capitals.
As to vulnerability of rice under current condition, Ilagan City and Divilican revealed a very low
vulnerability index while most of the LGUs have high to very high vulnerability. For corn, almost all the
LGUs revealed a moderate to very high vulnerability indices, both current and 2030 conditions. Finally,
Ilagan City and San Mateo have very low vulnerability to climate change. In this study, the LGUs’ adaptive
capacity has an inverse relationship with its vulnerability, that is, the higher the adaptive capacity, the
lower the vulnerability, and vice versa.
Keywords - Adaptive Capacity, Agriculture, Climate Change, CRVA, Suitability, Vulnerability

Introduction great interest on the interconnected effects posed by

The Philippines is among the most vulnerable
regions, termed as climate change “hotspots”, along
with countries like Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand,
Indonesia, and Lao PDR whereby these regions will
experience more climate change manifestations in the
coming decades (Yusuf and Francisco, 2009).
Nowadays, climate change is one of the pressing
global environmental concerns and the society has a
this problem (Peñaflor, 2014). In 2015, UNESCAP
identified the three sectors that recorded the highest
economic damage resulting from geophysical hazards
in the Asia Pacific region and these are transportation
sector, housing sector and the agriculture sector. The
agricultural sector was recognized as the most
vulnerable of all sectors. The agricultural production
operations are greatly affected by the changing climate
condition. In general, Tolentino and Landicho (2013)

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LINKER: The Journal of Emerging Research in Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
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identified the major climate change impacts to
agricultural production and these include emergence
of pests and diseases, decreased yield, undersized
growth, delays in fruiting and harvesting, declining
quality of produce, increased labor costs, and
decreasing farm income. Consequently, it leads to
reduced food supply which will affect the economic
environment such that lower food supply would lead
to higher food prices, therefore, poses threats to food
security. According to Labios et al. (2019), climate
change poses threat to food security thereby exerting
more pressures on agricultural production operations.
In the Philippines, Cagayan Valley is
considered as one of the most vulnerable region to
climate variability and extremes particularly typhoons
and floods (Penalba et al., 2008). According to the
vulnerability mapping and geo-spatial study in the
Cagayan River Basin, Floresca (2011) found out that
the highest concentration of high vulnerability is along
the Cagayan River and its major tributaries and at the
eastern part of Cagayan Valley. In terms of spatial
distributions of vulnerability by province, Isabela has
the highest land area with high vulnerability. The local
populace observed climate variability and extremes
specifically drought, typhoons and heavy and
continuous rains usually causing floods in low-lying
areas as well as affecting agricultural areas.
Through climate smart interventions, the
complex challenges posed by climate change can be
addressed. Nowadays, Mwongera et al. (2015) stated
that several agricultural technologies and platforms
classified as climate smart have been made available
as they offer opportunities to: (i) increase food
security, (ii) develop and enhance resilience to climate
risks, and (iii) reduce or remove greenhouse gases.
Meanwhile, mitigation and adaptation strategies
should be given priority and the importance of coping
with climate-related risks remains the main topic for
global discussion (IPCC, 2012). Although, building
resilience is not perceived as the ultimate goal, but
rather as the intermediate main outcome contributing
to the long-term goal of improved communities'
coping capacities to a high degree of climate risks
(Béné, Frankenberger, and Nelson, 2015).
At present, the agriculture and fisheries
remain as the major source of livelihoods of rural
populations in the Philippines (NEDA, 2013). The
poor rural households that depend mainly on
agricultural production operations need a better
understanding of major agricultural vulnerabilities to
climate risks, thus fundamental to achieving more
resilient farming systems. The municipalities and
relevant crops that are most vulnerable to climate risks
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need to be identified and prioritize at a high resolution
scale (Palao et al., 2017). It is therefore necessary to
determine the vulnerability to climate change of the
agriculture sector in the province. This would serve as
a basis for decision support platform and policy and
institutional innovations for the promotion of a
sustainable and productive agriculture sector in the
province. It would also help in targeting and planning
for building climate-resilient agricultural
communities.
Therefore, the study aimed to determine the
agriculture sector’s vulnerability to climate risks and
change. Specifically, the study sought to determine the
following:
1. the exposure of Isabela province to climate-related
hazards;
2. the climatic suitability of crops under current
condition and 2030 projection;
3. the adaptive capacity of LGUs to climate change;
and
4. the vulnerability of rice and corn crops in the
province and the overall vulnerability of LGUs.
Methods
This study was conducted in the Province of
Isabela covering 34 municipalities and three cities.
Key informant interviews were done with the
Municipal/City Agriculturists and their staff. The
collection and organization of geo-referenced data on
vulnerability to climate risks were undertaken. These
datasets, both from primary and secondary sources,
were generated following the methodological
guidelines for climate risk vulnerability assessment
(CRVA) covering climate-risk exposure, sensitivity
and adaptive capacity. Also, series of stakeholders’
meetings and focus group discussions (FGD) were
done to collect supplementary data and to validate the
preliminary results of CRVA.
Exposure denotes the nature and degree to
which the province is exposed to climate-related
hazards. It is a combination of natural hazards data sets
to which extent a different municipalities are under
pressure from climate and hydro-meteorological risks.
Most of the datasets refer to historical databases from
the Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative in Agriculture
(AMIA) Phase 1 project of the Department of
Agriculture. Eight (8) hazards were identified for the
Philippines, and these are typhoon, storm surge, flood,
drought, erosion, landslide, saltwater intrusion and sea
level rise. In this study, three out of eight hazard
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datasets were selected based on the selection process sensitivity, and Wa = weight given for adaptive
during the discussions with key stakeholders. capacity.

The crop sensitivity was analyzed through the

changes in climatic suitability by the year 2030 in
comparison with the crop suitability under current
condition. The Maximum entropy (Maxent) model
was used because of its robustness (that is, able to
show most important variable that affects crop
distribution) and adaptability (that is, model is based
on locally observed data) to any local context.
Analyzing crop suitability involved a two-step
process. The first step is to assess the baseline (current
climate condition) crop suitability which is based on
the condition that a species is predicted to occur at a
particular location if it approximately matches the
environmental condition where it is observed. The
second step is to predict the location of a species on a Fig. 1. Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment
particular time slice if it matches the environmental Framework
condition where it is observed in the baseline
condition. Processing was done using an open source
GIS software. Each crop location was assessed based
on several geo-referenced climatic
parameters/predictor layers. Predictor layers are
different sets of climate information that will
determine crop suitability. Crop occurrence implies
exposure and sensitivity of these crops to climate risks
and change.
Meanwhile, the datasets and other
information on the adaptive capacity were generated
through a semi-structured questionnaire which was
presented, reviewed and enhanced during workshops
with experts which was presented accordingly to the
Municipal/City Agriculturists and their staff where it
was reviewed, criticized and improved in order to fit Fig. 2. Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment
in to the condition of the localities in the province. In (CRVA) Methodological Guidelines
this study, adaptive capacity was measured in terms of
five capitals, namely: the economic, natural, social, Results and Discussions
physical and institutional.
Exposure to Climate-related Hazards
Generally, the CRVA framework shown in
Fig. 1 was followed and all the processes and The hazards’ exposure condition in Isabela
methodologies undertaken to come up for the overall Province has been rated high through a workshop
vulnerability of the agriculture sector in the province conducted with key stakeholders. Typhoon, flood and
is shown in Fig. 2. The equation below provides the erosion were found the most prominent hazards in the
basis in the determination of vulnerability indices. province. Hazard datasets that has been used was
accumulated based on historical databases from the
Eq. 1
Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative (AMIA) project
of the Department of Agriculture. In this study, each
hazard has adopted a normalized value of zero to one
Where: Haz = hazard index, Sens = sensitivity index (i with following standard equal breaks classification as
= crop), and AC = adaptive capacity index. Wh = follows: 0.00-0.20 (Very Low), 0.20-0.40 (Low),
weight given for hazard, Ws = weight given for 0.40-0.60 (Moderate), 0.60-0.80 (High), 0.80-1.00
(Very High). As a result, the overlay of these three

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major hazards (i.e., typhoon, flood and erosion)
resulted to a very high incidence of hazards in Isabela
province (Fig. 3).
Fig. 3. Exposure to Hazards of Isabela Province
Source: Romero et al. (2017) AMIA Phase 2 Project
Climatic Suitability of Rice
Again, the crop sensitivity (an indicator of
vulnerability) was analyzed through the changes in
climatic suitability. A set of selected 20 bioclimatic
variables were chosen to assess climate suitability of
crops. For baseline conditions, the Wordclim dataset
was used. The described bioclimatic factors are
relevant to understand species responses to climate
change (O’Donnell and Ignizio, 2012). It can be
gleaned from the climatic suitability map for rice
(Oriza sativa) under current condition that there is
moderate to highly suitable areas in the flat and low-
elevation portion of the province. Some of the areas in
the province belong to moderate to low suitability
indicating that planting rice in these areas can only
generate moderate to low yield. Thus, it implies that
planting rice in these areas must be done with
technological supports such as irrigation services to
avoid crop damages due to climate change. Also, most
of the areas with low suitability are within the Sierra
Madre Mountain Range (Fig. 4).
Meanwhile, for the future condition, global
circulation models (GCMs) which is presently an
important tool to represent future climate condition
was used. The GCMs were spatially downscaled by
the International Center for Tropical Agriculture
(CIAT) using spatial statistical downscaling
techniques (CIAT, 2017) to produce the 1 kilometer
resolution bioclimatic variables. Spatial downscaling
is necessary to create high resolution climate surfaces
from coarse resolution output of GCMs. The GCMs
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used in this study are already based on Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project “CMIP5” Global Circulation
Models (GCMs) and already corresponding to the
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with
four time periods (years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2080)
based from IPCC Assessment Report 5 (IPCC, 2015).
So far, RCPs are the most recent and policy relevant
scenarios. To analyze climate change crop suitability,
an ensemble of the 33 GCMs was used based on the
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
scenario 8.5 from IPCC Assessment Report 5 and a
time period of year 2030. Scenario 8.5 was used as it
relates with the observed trends in greenhouse gas
emissions (Palao et al., 2017).
The projected climatic suitability of rice for
year 2030 appeared that the areas with high suitability
to plant rice expanded with moderate to high
suitability along the river systems (Fig. 5). On the
eastern side of Isabela Province (i.e., the coastal
municipalities of Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan, and
Dinapigue overlooking the Pacific Ocean), rice plant
has moderate climatic suitability. As shown in the
climatic suitability map, the areas with low suitability
are only in the Sierra Madre Mountain Ranges on the
eastern part of the province. This indicates that the
elevation and forestland uses of the area provide the
strong factors in determining the climatic suitability
conditions of the corresponding areas.
The study revealed an expansion of climatic
suitability of rice and corn in the province but it
negates a study in Vietnam, whereby authors found out
that the Mekong delta is one of the vulnerable regions
due to a decline in the climatic suitability of rice and
maize (Parker, Bourgoin, Valle, and Laderach, 2019).
Fig. 4. Climatic suitability of rice under current
condition
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Fig. 5. Climatic suitability of rice under 2030
condition
Climatic Suitability of Corn
Under the same process of assessing climatic
suitability of rice, the study also shows that the
climatic suitability of corn or maize (Zea maize) under
current condition has moderate to high climatic
suitability in areas along the flood plains of Isabela
Province (Fig. 6). However, the corn areas with high
climatic suitability expanded by the Year 2030 (Fig.
7). A high climatic suitability to plant corn is also
projected to increase along the coastal areas of Isabela
overlooking the Pacific Ocean on the eastern side. As
observed also in rice production areas, the Sierra
Madre Mountain Ranges of the province has the area
with low climatic suitability of growing corn or maize.
However, the corn production areas enlarge more into
the Sierra Madre Mountain Ranges than the rice
production areas.
Fig. 6. Climatic suitability of corn under current
condition
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Fig.7. Climatic suitability of rice under 2030 condition
Adaptive Capacity of Local Government Units in
Isabela
Adaptive capacity forms one of the three
pillars of the vulnerability assessment in addition to
exposure and sensitivity to climate change (Fig. 1). In
this research, “Adaptive capacity is the ability of a
system to adjust to climate change (including climate
variability and extremes) to moderate potential
damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope
with the consequences” (IPCC, 2012).
Inadequate climate change adaptation
measures intensify the spectacle scenario of
vulnerability to climate change. As a result, without
proper adaptation measures, it would bring distressful
conditions over each municipality or any other
locations. In this research, the adaptive capacity index
indicates the ability or capacity of the Local
Government Units (LGUs) to cope and adapt to
climate risks as shown by the five major attribute
capitals and its indicators, namely: the economic,
natural, social, physical and institutional. Adaptive
capacity embodies a sustainable economic growth and
provides equalization of access and development
opportunities and effective social nets.
As shown in Fig. 8, about six municipalities
of the Isabela Province have very high adaptive
capacity which include the City of Ilagan, the
municipalities of Tumauini, Ramon, Alicia,
Angadanan, and Jones. This is due to the adequate
economic capital which was measured based on
agricultural engagement and production, access in the
aspects of institutions like banks, potable water,
electricity, and source of income and other sub-
indicators of economic activities in certain area. In
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addition, human capital also contributes to having very
high adaptive capacity whereby it was observed that
there was high literacy rates as cities and high class
municipalities are more likely educated and/or well-
informed, and with high presence rate of health
workers and facilities. Finally, high adaptive capacity
is also influenced by the natural capital of these
localities which was measured through the presence of
forest cover, water resources access of farmers,
ecosystems support systems such as forests,
mangroves, and other ecosystems. The more the
resources are available, the more it supports the quality
of life and the result shows a very significant natural
resource outlook of the present condition of these
localities with very high adaptive capacities.
Meanwhile, twelve (12) of LGUs (i.e., Santa Maria,
San Pablo, Delfin Albano, Mallig, Divilacan, Luna,
Cabatuan, San Mateo, Benito Soliven, Santiago City,
San Guillermo, and Jones) are classified as having
high adaptive capacity. The rest of the municipalities
belong to moderate and low adaptive capacity index.
It only signifies that the access to quality basic
services, private investments, productive employment
opportunities, private linkages and other indicators of
adaptive capacity in these LGUs of the province is not
enough to overcome the negative impacts of climate
change.
In a similar approach conducted in the
province of Bukidnon, authors found out that the
municipalities of Damulog and Kitaotao that obtained
very low adaptive capacity ratings is due to LGU
income. In addition, authors observed few number of
banks and other financial institutions in these localities
which are important aspect of economic capital. Also,
these LGUs have the lowest in terms of farmer
membership to cooperatives which is a critical social
capital (Paquit, Bruno, Rivera, and Salingay, 2018).
On the other hand, the LGUs with very high
adaptive capacities were found to have strong
institutional supports to climate change and
agriculture-related programs thereby improving their
adaptive capacities. The presence of other external
support systems like agricultural units, strong water
management supports and extension works from
academic and research institutions also contribute to
their enhanced adaptive capacities. In Vietnam, a
similar approach of assessing adaptive capacity was
done by Parker et al. (2019) wherein they identified the
Mekong delta region with relatively high adaptive
capacity due to developed infrastructure and
comparatively high levels of education. In Bukidnon,
Paquit et al. (2018) discovered that Valencia City,
Malaybalay City and Impasug-ong have very high
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adaptive capacity attributed to their economic, human,
social and institutional capitals wherein they have the
necessary tools to better adapt to climate change
pressures to the agricultural sector in their area.
In 2010, the Climate Change Commission
(CCC) identified strategic priorities in building the
adaptive capacities and resilience of the agricultural
sector. Some of these priorities include: (i) reduce
climate change risks and vulnerability of natural
ecosystems and biodiversity; (ii) increase the
resilience of agricultural communities through the
development of climate change responsive
technologies, infrastructures and platforms to support
agricultural production operations of the most
vulnerable communities; (iii) improve fisheries
resilience through the refurbishment of fishing
grounds, stocks, habitats, and investment in
appropriate fisheries technologies and products; (iv)
increase public and private investments in agri-
fisheries production areas; (v) bolster crop insurance
system as an important risk sharing mechanism to
implement weather-based insurance system; and (vi)
strengthen sustainable, multi-sectoral and community-
based resource management mechanisms.
In Cagayan Valley region, DA-RFO II and
IIRR (2020) identified the experiences of
implementers of the AMIA Village approach, the
Department of Agriculture’s Adaptation of the
Climate Smart Village Approach identified a portfolio
of nine (9) major strategies for pursuing resilience and
improving adaptive capacity of agri-fishery sectors in
the Philippines and these are: 1. agricultural
diversification, 2. Climate resilient crops, 3.
Sustainable mechanization, 4. Enterprise
development, 5. Climate information services, 6. Soil
and water management, 7. Farmers database, 8.
Learning platform, and 9. Agricultural financial
services.
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Fig. 8. Adaptive capacity index of the LGUs in Isabela Fig. 9. Rice vulnerability index from the different
Province LGUs in the province under current condition

Vulnerability of Rice to Climate Change

The vulnerability index of rice under the

current condition in Fig. 9 appeared that Ilagan City
and Divilican have a very low vulnerability to climate
change. This is because the City of Ilagan has a very
high adaptive capacity making it resilient to the
impacts of climate change. This is attributable to the
very strong commitment of the City Government when
it comes to climate change related programs and
projects in support to rice production. For the
Municipality of Divilacan, as can be seen from the
adaptive capacity index, although the LGU has a very
low adaptive capacity, there is minimal crop
occurrence of rice in the area, hence, there is less crop
exposure to the impacts of climate change. This is
because the major source of livelihoods in the area is Fig. 10. Rice vulnerability index from the different
the fishing industry. As shown in the 2030 projected LGUs in the province under 2030 condition
vulnerability of rice, most of the LGUs in the province
have high to very high vulnerability to climate change Vulnerability of Corn to Climate Change
(Fig. 10).
Figures 11 and 12 show the map of the
In recent years, highly variable rainfall vulnerability of corn in the province under the current
patterns and distribution were observed more condition and the 2030 projection, respectively. It
frequently and these have negatively affected appeared that almost all the LGUs in the province are
agricultural crops. For example, rice is very sensitive experiencing moderate to very high vulnerability to
to stresses brought about by variabilities and extremes climate change. This is due to the very high exposure
in water and temperature. Due to water and heat of corn and eventually high sensitivity to climate risks
stresses, there is high mortality among crops (Peñalba, and hazards as more and more farmers engaged in corn
Elazegui, Amit, Lansigan, & Faderogao, 2012). production. In fact, the province has the highest
Simulation studies in the Philippines have shown that contribution, among other provinces in the region, in
the for every 1°C increase in temperature, the yields of terms of corn production, making Region 2 to garner
rice and other crops tend to decrease from 8 to 14%, First Rank as corn producer nationwide and
depending on location in the country (Comiso, contributes about 25% to national production of corn
Espaldon, Lansigan, Blanche, & Sarigumba, 2013). (DA Regional Office data, 2016).

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Laborte et al. (2017) stated that agricultural
production in the Philippines, such as rice and maize,
are highly vulnerable to typhoons as the typhoon
season coincides with the growing period of these
crops.
Fig. 11. Corn vulnerability index from the different
LGUs in the province under current condition
Fig. 12. Corn vulnerability index from the different
LGUs in the province under 2030 condition
Vulnerability of LGUs in Isabela to Climate Change
Vulnerability is antonymic to adaptive
capacity; that is, the higher the adaptive capacity to
adapt and cope from hazards and climate risks, the
lower the vulnerability from the effects of these risks.
Logistically, if the LGU is incapacitated, the more the
community is vulnerable.
Only Ilagan City and the Municipality of San
Mateo have very low vulnerability to climate change
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(Fig. 13). This is because research, training and
piloting centers are in these LGUs. Therefore, the
technical and technological interventions needed to
address climate change impacts on the agriculture
sector are just within these LGUs. In addition, the City
of Ilagan and the Municipality of San Mateo were
declared as the Corn and Monggo Capital of the
Philippines, respectively, hence financial
interventions are already at hand.
Ilagan City is a first class city and fully
realize its potential as one of the investment hubs in
the country and witnessed the extensive development.
It is the largest LGU in Isabela Province with 91
barangays and also called as the “Corn Capital of the
Philippines”. The Municipality of San Mateo, on the
other hand, is a second class municipality and
popularly known as the “Mungo Capital of the
Philippines” because of its extensive mungbean
production employing the integration of mungbean as
one crop in the crop rotation technique of the farmers’
production systems. Again, one important aspect that
is linked to the high adaptive capacity and therefore
very low vulnerability of these localities is the
presence of research, training and piloting centers like
the Department of Agriculture’s Cagayan Valley
Research Center (CVRC) and Agricultural Training
Institute (ATI) in the City of Ilagan and the
municipality of San Mateo, respectively. Therefore,
the technical and technological interventions needed to
address climate change impacts on the agriculture
sector are just within these LGUs.
Meanwhile, in the study of Palao et al. (2017)
on vulnerability of selected provinces in the country,
they observed a higher incidence of hazards in Luzon
(Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Tarlac, Quezon, and Camarines
Sur) and Visayas (Iloilo and Negros Occidental) island
groups. They found out that Isabela and Camarines Sur
are at high risk of typhoon events (historical data),
since these provinces are located in areas considered
as typhoon belt. Meanwhile, the occurrence of flood is
high in Tarlac, Isabela, and Negros Occidental because
these provinces have large river basins and wide flood
plains. On the other hand, Camarines Sur and Quezon
are at high risk of sea level rise. In terms of potential
drought, higher spatial coverage is in the provinces of
Isabela and Quezon. North Cotabato which
experienced two consecutive droughts in 2015 and
2016 is ranked 5th among the 10 provinces in terms of
drought risk.
In general, it is observed that the LGUs’
adaptive capacity has an inverse relationship with its
vulnerability to climate change and variability. That is,
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an LGU with a low adaptive capacity is highly
vulnerable to changes in climate (i.e., increasing
temperature, rainfall and number of dry days) and
hazards. For example, in the province of Isabela, the
Municipality of Divilacan has a very low adaptive
capacity and correspondingly is highly vulnerable to
climate change and occurrences of hazards. On the
other hand, Ilagan City is high in adaptive capacity but
with very low vulnerability. Therefore, enhancing the
adaptive capacity of an LGU is necessary in order that
such LGU will become climate-resilient.
Furthermore, four municipalities (i.e., San
Mariano, Cauayan City, Santiago City, and San
Agustin) have moderate vulnerability indices. The
more interesting concern is the very high vulnerability
to climate change and hazards of the remaining
municipalities. It implies that these municipalities do
not have the proper adaptation measures making them
vulnerable to abrupt hazards brought about by climate
variability and change.
Fig. 13. Climate change vulnerability of the different
LGUs in Isabela
Conclusion and Future Works
In terms of exposure to hazards, Isabela
province is highly exposed to typhoon, flood and
erosion. The climatic suitability, which is a measure of
sensitivity, provides that rice under current condition
showed a moderate to high suitability in the flat and
low-elevation areas of the province. Some of the areas
in the province belong to moderate to low suitability
indicating that planting rice in these areas can only
generate moderate to low yield. The projected climatic
suitability of rice for year 2030 expands with moderate
to high suitability along the river systems. These are
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also true with the climatic suitability of corn. The City
of Ilagan and the Municipalities of Tumauini, Ramon,
Alicia, Angadanan, and Jones have very high adaptive
capacities. Reasons of having very high adaptive
capacity are due to adequate economic, human and
natural capitals. Meanwhile, the vulnerability index of
rice for the current condition showed that Ilagan City
and Divilican have very low vulnerability to climate
change. Most of the LGUs in the province have high
to very high vulnerability of rice to climate change.
For corn, almost all the LGUs in the province are
experiencing moderate to very high vulnerability to
climate change in terms of corn production, both for
the current condition and the 2030 projection. Finally,
Ilagan City and the Municipality of San Mateo have
very low vulnerability to climate change. The LGUs’
adaptive capacity has an inverse relationship with its
vulnerability to climate change and variability. An
LGU with a low adaptive capacity is highly vulnerable
to climatic change.
It is recommended that farmers in the
different LGUs that are planting or growing in areas
not suitable for rice and corn should consider planting
or growing other crop/s that are suitable in their area
or should plant crop varieties that are adaptable to their
condition. The Municipal/City Agriculture Office, the
Department of Agriculture and other concerned
institutions should assist these farmers and provide
technical (i.e. farming techniques and practices,
promotion and development of new varieties, capacity
building, research), technological (i.e. farm
machineries and equipment) and financial support to
them. Other LGUs should benchmark best practices
from the LGUs with very high adaptive capacities, to
learn and be equipped with necessary interventions to
increase their adaptive capacities. Establishment of
training/research centers into other LGUs (especially
those LGUs with high to very high vulnerability)
should be considered.
Ethical Considerations
Ethical procedures were observed in the
conduct of this study. There was a proper
coordination of activities that was made with various
Local Government Units (LGUs). LGU Staffs who
served as key informants have been oriented properly
about the objectives of the study and the provision of
necessary data needed in this research was done
openly.
9
LINKER: The Journal of Emerging Research in Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
Vol. 2, No. 2, (2021), pp., 1-11.
Acknowledgement
This paper was conducted simultaneous with
a research project, with technical and financial
assistance from the International Center for Tropical
Agriculture (CIAT), which the authors gratefully
acknowledge. An equal acknowledgement to the
Department of Agriculture- Bureau of Agricultural
Research (DA-BAR) and the DA-System Wide
Climate Change Office (SWCCO) for funding the
project that the authors worked on. In addition, the
Department of Agriculture –Regional Field Office 02
(DA-RFO2) AMIA focal person, the Cagayan Valley
Research Center (CVRC) and LGU Officials for the
coordination and other technical assistance, and for the
provision of relevant data. Finally, to Kuya Clemente
Cleto Rubio for helping the authors in the processing
of maps.
Authors Bio note
The principal author, Mr.
Bondee L. Peñaflor, is a junior
faculty at the College of
Forestry and Environmental
Management (CFEM) of
Isabela State University at
Cabagan. He is currently the
Chair of the Master of Science in Disaster Risk
Management and Climate Change Adaptation and
the Bachelor of Science in Environmental Science
Programs of CFEM. The author has worked with
various research and development and extension
projects that were funded nationally and
internationally. He had presented scholarly papers
in various conferences, both national and
international, and has received best paper awards,
institutionally and internationally. He wishes to
work more on various projects that would lead to
the enhancement of his research and community
organizing skills, including communication skill.
He is a team-player who is open for collaboration.
The co-author, Dr. Marino R.
Romero, served as the
Adviser for the Master’s
Thesis of the principal author.
Dr. Romero has retired from
government service as
Professor VI at ISUC-CFEM.
Prior to retirement, he served as the Director for
Research and Development at ISU Cabagan
Campus and also served as the Chair of the
Department of Graduate Studies of CFEM where
www.linkertjsahs.com
ISSN: 2815-2018
he also served as Dean. Dr. Romero also worked
with various projects that were funded nationally
and internationally and acted as consultant from
various development projects of both government
and private entities. At present, he is still
connected to the Department of Graduate Studies
where he serves as Part-time Professor.
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