This document discusses intertemporal choice and models used to analyze it. Intertemporal choice refers to how present decisions affect future options. Models of intertemporal choice examine how individuals make trade-offs between costs and benefits occurring at different points in time for decisions around savings, education, health, etc. The exponential discounted utility model developed by Ramsey and Samuelson is commonly used but does not fully capture behavior. Hyperbolic discounting and quasi-hyperbolic discounting models better describe how people tend to prioritize short-term rewards. Fisher's model illustrates budget constraints over time and how preferences between current and future consumption determine optimal saving and spending.
This document discusses intertemporal choice and models used to analyze it. Intertemporal choice refers to how present decisions affect future options. Models of intertemporal choice examine how individuals make trade-offs between costs and benefits occurring at different points in time for decisions around savings, education, health, etc. The exponential discounted utility model developed by Ramsey and Samuelson is commonly used but does not fully capture behavior. Hyperbolic discounting and quasi-hyperbolic discounting models better describe how people tend to prioritize short-term rewards. Fisher's model illustrates budget constraints over time and how preferences between current and future consumption determine optimal saving and spending.
This document discusses intertemporal choice and models used to analyze it. Intertemporal choice refers to how present decisions affect future options. Models of intertemporal choice examine how individuals make trade-offs between costs and benefits occurring at different points in time for decisions around savings, education, health, etc. The exponential discounted utility model developed by Ramsey and Samuelson is commonly used but does not fully capture behavior. Hyperbolic discounting and quasi-hyperbolic discounting models better describe how people tend to prioritize short-term rewards. Fisher's model illustrates budget constraints over time and how preferences between current and future consumption determine optimal saving and spending.
INTERTEMPORAL CHOICE This is the process why which people make decision about what and how much to do at various point in time.When choice at one time influence the possiblities available at other points in time. Intertemporal choice is an economic term describing how present decision affect what options become available in Future. Every decision that you make will have an impact on the other things that you will be doing after that.Making a business plan is not just about the fact that you will invest two(2)hours of your time to work on it.It is important that you make the right choice about when you will do it,this will impact your levels of productivity .If you choose to work in the evening then it's likely to be less productive compared to if you choose to work on it in the morning when your energy level is higher .Many people are struggling to achieve their goals because they make choices tat have negative consequences in a long -run.Eg: If you decide to spend the little you have on the latest and expensive gadget then you would be struggling with savings and finances. MODELS OF INTERTEMPORAL CHOICE Most choices require decision-makers to trade-off costs and benefits at different points in time. Decisions with consequences in multiple time periods are referred to as intertemporal choices. Decisions about savings, work effort, education, nutrition, exercise, and health care are all intertemporal choices. Models provide a lens with which to examine empirical evidence and help identify new questions to explore.Most models share the unifying features of giving some special priority to the present.To formalize the idea that the present is qualitatively treated differently than other periods,a metacategory of Models is introduced,The present-focused preferences exist if agents are more likely in the present to choose an action that generates immediate experienced utility, then they would be if all the consequences of the actions in their choice set were delayed by the same amount of time. More informally, this amounts to people choosing more impatiently for the present than they do for the future.
The term present-focus, rather than the more common term
present-bias, because bias implies a prejudgment that the behavior is a mistake. Models that produce presentfocused preferences include: hyperbolic and quasi-hyperbolic discounting (i.e., models with present bias); temptation that is experienced when choosing for now but not when choosing for the future; an interaction between myopic and planner selves; objective counter-party risks; and distortions in the perception of time or in forecasting the future. Present-focused preferences serve as a meta-category that identifies key commonalities among most of the models in the intertemporal choice literature. The working model of Intertemporal choice was (Exponential) discounted utility model developed by Ramsey (1928) and Samuelson (1937), which features time-seperable utility flows that are exponentially discounted,But exponentially discounting utility model is not descriptively accurate.people seem to struggle when they make Intertemporal tradeoffs,a phenomenon, which has been extensively discussed by moral philosophers, political economists, psychologists and policy makers. Theory of discounted utility is the most widely used framework for analysing intertemporal choices. This framework has been used to describe actual behaviour (positive economics) and it has been used to prescribe socially optimal behaviour (normative economics). Descriptive discounting models capture the property that most economic agents prefer current rewards to delayed rewards of similar magnitude. Such time preferences have been ascribed to a combination of mortality effects, impatience effects, and salience effects. However, mortality effects alone cannot explain time preferences, since mortality rates for young and middleaged adults are at least 100 times too small to generate observed discounting patterns. Normative intertemporal choice models divide into two approaches. The first approach accepts discounting as a valid normative construct, using revealed preference as a guiding principle. The second approach asserts that discounting is a normative mistake (except for a minor adjustment for mortality discounting). The second approach adopts zero discounting (or nearzero discounting) as the normative benchmark. The most widely used discounting model assumes that total utility can be decomposed into a weighted sum – or weighted integral – of utility flows in each period of time. FISHER'S MODEL OF INTERTEMPORAL CHOICE Irving Fisher developed a model to analyse how rational, forward-looking consumers make consumption choices over a period of time. Fisher’s model of intertemporal choice illustrates at least three things: (1) the budget constraints faced by consumers, (2) their preferences between current and future consumption, and (3) how these two conjointly determine households’ decision regarding optimal consumption and saving over an extended period of time. Modern economist have gone one step ahead of this and have included borrowing constraints also while analysing consumption choice over time.
WHAT DOES INTERTEMPORAL CHOICE SHOW ON A BUDGET
CONSTRAINT? Since consumption decisions are taken over a period of time consumers face Intertemporal budget constraint which shows how much income is available for consumption now and in the future.This constraint reflect a consumer today and how much to save for the future. Rational individuals always prefer to increase the quantity or quality of the goods and services they consume.However,most people cannot consume as much as they like due to limited income.In other words,people face a budget constraint, which sets a limit on how much they can spend. Since consumption decisions are taken over a period of time , consumers face Intertemporal budget constraint, which shows how much income is available for consumption now and in the future.This constraint reflects a consumers decision on how much to consume today and how much to save for the future. The line EFJG is the consumer’s intertemporal budget con- straint. It shows the alternative combinations of period 1 and period 2 consumption the consumer can choose. If the consumer is at point F, he consumes his entire income in both the periods (Y1 = C1 and Y2 = C2, S = 0, B = 0). At point E, C1 = 0 and Y1 = S. Therefore C2 = (1 + r)Y1 + Y2. Thus if he chooses points between E and F, he consumes less than his income in period 1 and saves the rest for period 2.
Intertemporal Budget Line
At point G, C2 = 0. This means that the consumer borrows the
maximum possible amount against Y2. This means that C1 is Y1 + Y2/(1 + r). Thus if he chooses any point between F and G, he consumes more than his income in period 1 and borrows to make-up the difference. Various other points on the budget line EFG are attainable points.