Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211

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Journal of Hydrology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol

Research papers

Analysis of recent rainfall trends and links to teleconnection patterns in

California (U.S.)
A. González-Pérez a, *, R. Álvarez-Esteban b, A. Penas c, S. del Río c
a
Department of Biodiversity and Environmental Management (Botany Area), Faculty of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Leon, Campus de Vegazana
s/n, 24071 León, Spain
b
Department of Economics and Statistics (Statistics and Operations Research Area), Faculty of Economics and Business. University of Leon, Campus de Vegazana s/n,
24071 León, Spain
c
Department of Biodiversity and Environmental Management (Botany Area), Faculty of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Leon, Mountain Livestock
Institute CSIC-UNILEON, Campus de Vegazana s/n, 24071 León, Spain

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

This manuscript was handled by Emmanouil The aim of this research is to enlarge knowledge of space-time evolution of precipitation in California over the
Anagnostou, Editor-in-Chief. last decade on a monthly, seasonal and annual time-scale. This study also analyses the relationship between
Original content: https://wrcc.dri.edu/ precipitation and teleconnection patterns with most influence on Californian climate. The homogeneity of the
data from the selected stations was verified and finally 165 meteorological stations were used with an obser­
Keywords: vation period that ranged from 1980 to 2019. In order to evaluate trends and statistical significance, both the
Precipitation non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and modified Sen’s slope method were used. Correlation analysis using the
Trends partial non-parametric Spearman Test (95% confidence level) was performed to find out relationships between
Teleconnection Patterns precipitation and nine teleconnection patterns in the State of California. Spatial analysis was achieved using
Regionalisation Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK). Finally, this research, as a novelty, shows regionalisation of California State as
California a function of significance in the correlation of precipitation with teleconnection patterns. To achieve this,
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Agglomerative Hierarchical Cluster analysis (HCA) was performed.
Results show a positive precipitation trend in winter and negative precipitation trend in late summer and
autumn. The teleconnection patterns more correlated with precipitation are El Niño along Southern Oscillation
(ENSO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Four areas were discerned outlining
the Mojave Climate Region (Area 4) by having ENSO as the teleconnection pattern that best account
precipitation.

1. Introduction
Climate change has been drawing the scientific community’s atten­
tion for more than three decades (Stoddard et al., 2021). In this regard,
the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events has boosted
economic losses over recent decades due to tropical cyclones, winter
storms, floods, droughts, heatwaves and wildfires (Beniston, 2007;
Beniston et al., 2021; Ehsani et al., 2020; Roksvåg et al., 2021). In fact,
the occurrence and intensity of rainstorms has increased since the 1950s
around the world, where trend analysis data are obtainable, owing to the
surge in human CO2 emissions (Dong et al., 2021; Fischer and Knutti,
2015; Held and Soden, 2006; Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021). One of the
most expensive natural hazards is flooding, causing billions of dollars in
damage each year (Cheung et al., 2016; Davenport et al., 2021) partic­
ularly in California, where in 2017 extreme precipitation and flooding
led to damage worth around $1.5 billion (Mallakpour et al., 2019).
Incidentally, and including other issues, during flood events public
water systems fail to provide fresh water due to the destruction of
treatment plants located near/ in close proximity to rivers (Exum et al.,
2018). Another important factor leading to major economic and social
losses are aviation accidents. Most of these accidents are caused by
weather conditions such as fog and precipitation that reduce visibility
(Gultepe et al., 2019).
At this point, it is important to mention that precipitation is any
creation of the condensation of atmospheric water vapour that falls
rapidly from a cloud. The principal forms include; drizzle, rain, sleet and

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: agonp@unileon.es (A. González-Pérez), ramon.alvarez@unileon.es (R. Álvarez-Esteban), apenm@unileon.es (A. Penas), sriog@unileon.es (S. del
Río).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128211
Received 17 March 2022; Received in revised form 4 July 2022; Accepted 10 July 2022
Available online 19 July 2022
0022-1694/© 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A. González-Pérez et al. Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211

snow (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 2018). In this regard, it is

Fig. 1. California physical map with the meteorological stations used in this
research (●). Some cities of the State are named to ease localization.
important to identify that ice fog (suspended ice crystals) can affect local
climates due to the alteration of surface albedo. In fact, ice fog modu­
lates the heat and the moisture fluxes in the troposphere thereby altering
the climate (Gultepe et al., 2017). It is widely known that precipitation is
an important part of the water cycle and at the same time probably-one
of the main variables associated with atmospheric circulation in climate
studies (Sun et al., 2018). Moreover, snow precipitation can be either in
a liquid or ice phase, and plays an important role in the water cycle of
the mountain’s ecosystem (Gultepe, 2015). Precipitation and clouds,
along with water vapour mass exchanges, play a major role in climate
fluctuations at both global and regional levels (Levizzani and Cattani,
2019). It is of note that, not only do they make an impact on the climate,
but also on the weather at every scale, and affect water obtainability
(Levizzani and Cattani, 2019). In addition, precipitation is the primary
source of fresh water for numerous systems such as agriculture and
ecosystems (Lausier and Jain, 2018). Therefore, changes in precipitation
could cause unprecedented consequences for society, agriculture and
the environment (Guo et al., 2019).
Foreseeing precipitation trends is important for a country’s future
economic development (Ahmad et al., 2015). Carvalho (2020) have
claimed that precipitation is expected to increase in wet regions and
decrease in dry regions. Nevertheless, there is a growing body of liter­
ature that identifies precipitation trends becoming less predictable at
finer spatial scales even in observational data (Gultepe et al., 2016),
because of the increasingly strong influence of climate variability in
different regions (de Luis et al., 2009; Jiang et al., 2016; Lausier and
Jain, 2018; Mohammad and Goswami, 2019; Torres-Batlló and Martí-
Cardona, 2020; Treppiedi et al., 2021) and specifically in the United
States (Davenport et al., 2021; Powell and Keim, 2015; Sayemuzzaman
and Jha, 2014). Precipitation differs greatly due to both topographic
effects and mesoscale atmospheric dynamical processes (Huang et al.,
2020a). It is important to mention that some studies agree that a

Table 1
Results of rainfall trends (mm year− 1) in the whole State of California. *Statistical significance (p-value) at α = 0.05.
January February March April May June July August September

Slope − 0.15 − 0.04 − 0.71 +0.28 +0.13 − 0.04 − 0.02 − 0.04 − 0.08
p-value 0.82 0.98 0.29 0.31 0.47 0.37 0.37 0.18 0.37

October November December Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual

Slope − 0.35 − 0.68 +0.24 +0.02 − 0.06 − 0.06 − 0.38 − 0.03

p-value 0.27 0.18 0.68 0.98 0.86 0.21 *0.05 0.82

Fig. 2. Percentage of meteorological stations with positive and negative trends (monthly, seasonal and annual scale) in the State of California over the
period 1980–2019.

2
A. González-Pérez et al.
Fig. 3. Boxplot for monthly, seasonal and annual trend values in the State of California over the period 1980–2019. The black line in the boxes (Interquartile range)
shows the median value slope for the entire State.
Fig. 4. Positive Trend analysis result and example of modified Sen slope for Yosemite Park meteorological station in the State of California over the
period 1980–2019.
reduction in the frequency of warm-season precipitation combined with
anthropogenic impact could lead to an increase in forest fires in the State
of California (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016; Diffenbaugh et al., 2015;
Williams et al., 2019). Understanding the variability and trends in pre­
cipitation could help to improve water resource management in
different parts of the world such as California, where frequent droughts
occur (He and Gautam, 2016; Serra-Llobet et al., 2016). In addition,
several research papers have shown a huge loss of snowpack due to early
thaws and more rain instead of snow (Huang et al., 2020a). Some re­
searchers have claimed that drought risk and the decrease in precipi­
tation in California are due to anthropogenic forcing and the greenhouse
effect (Dasgupta et al., 2020; Diffenbaugh et al., 2015; Swain et al.,
2016).
Moreover, physical and dynamical processes force changes in pre­
cipitation. For this reason, several studies have focused on the re­
lationships between precipitation and teleconnection patterns. The term
teleconnection pattern is often defined as a large-scale repetitive
3
Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
atmospheric pattern that occurs over months to years as a result of
changes in surface fluxes and covers widespread geographic areas (Yuan
et al., 2020). Additionally, sometimes these can last for several
consecutive years. It is worth noting that teleconnection patterns have
been associated with alterations in seasonal rainfall in California (Zhang
et al., 2021). In fact, there are some patterns of teleconnection that may
be related to precipitation and do not occur in isolation (Wise et al.,
2015). Together these research papers provide important insights into
the understanding of climate unpredictability on a global scale including
North America (Ge and Gong, 2009; Lau and Weng, 2002; Trenberth
et al., 2014) and California (Abatzoglou, 2011; Allen and Anderson,
2018; Guan et al., 2013; Sheppard et al., 2002; Zhang et al., 2021; Zhou
et al., 2020). Those research projects establish the main large-scale
teleconnection patterns that could affect the United States and, in
particular, the State of California. They are: Antarctic Oscillation (AAO)
(Jian-Qi, 2010), Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Dai and Tan, 2017), North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Hurrell and Deser, 2010), Pacific-North
A. González-Pérez et al. Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211

Fig. 5. Negative Trend analysis result and example of modified Sen slope for Yosemite Park meteorological station in the State of California over the
period 1980–2019.

Fig. 6. Results of the geographic coverage of rainfall trends (mm year− 1) and their statistical significance (monthly, seasonally and annually). Area that shows
statistical significance (95%).

American Pattern (PNA) (Wallace and Gutzler, 1981), Madden Julian
Oscillation (MJO) (Zhou et al., 2020), West Pacific Oscillation (WPO)
that is West Pacific (WP) (Choi and Moon, 2012), previously described
by Barnston et al. (1991) and J. Wallace and Gutzler, (1981), Eastern
Pacific Oscillation (EPO) (Dai and Tan, 2019a), El Niño along Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) (Whan and Zwiers, 2016) and Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO) (McAfee, 2014; Newman et al., 2016). Additional
observational work in combination with modelling studies is essential to
acquire knowledge of the relationship between precipitation in Cali­
fornia and teleconnection patterns (Luković et al., 2021). As has been

4
A. González-Pérez et al.
Fig. 6. (continued).
previously mentioned, examining precipitation is an enduring concern
both in the long term and within extreme weather events.
This research is original and it is important to highlight that it shows
the most recent results in rainfall trends in California on a monthly,
seasonal and annual time scale. The leading aim of this study is to
investigate the space–time progression of precipitation at a regional
level, in order to enlighten, on the one hand, the trend and its statistical
significance for the entire State of California for the period of
1980–2019 at a monthly, seasonal and annual rate. On the other hand,
this study, ground-breaking to our knowledge, examines the relation­
ship between precipitation and up to a total of nine teleconnection
patterns with its most probable influence on the Californian climate
during the period mentioned above. It provides the possible links be­
tween different teleconnection patterns on rainfall in California.
Another unique feature of this research is to achieve objective region­
alisation by clustering meteorological stations according to their links
with rainfall recorded in California and the teleconnection patterns
selected.
Finally, it is considered that the conclusions of this might support
managers of land planning. Not only will they be able to put into
practice confidence-building measures to tackle global warming, but
also to take measures in order to overcome the adverse effects of this
phenomenon. Subsequent work is needed to evaluate how trends may
evolve in response to future climate variability. Moreover, it will
become possible to anticipate future climate change. The recognition of
upcoming trends across a series of thresholds allows for risk manage­
ment with more suitable adaptation goals.
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Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
2. Materials and methodology
2.1. Study area
This research is conducted in the State of California, one of largest
states in the U.S. that covers an area of 423,955 km2. This State exhibits
two main mountain ranges, the Sierra Nevada and the Coast Range
which give California a varied landscape. The Coast Range goes from the
northwest right down to the Mexican border, spanning 1300 km. The
longest and largest range in California is the Sierra Nevada, where
Mount Whitney at 4421 m, is California’s highest peak (Luteyn and
Hickman, 1993). In addition, the State has two distinct desert zones,
Mojave and Colorado. California boasts several major rivers and lakes
such as the Sacramento River and Lake Tahoe (Fig. 1). The Californian
climate is highly variable, although a mediterranean climate prevails all
over the State, except for the highland area of Klamath where there is a
temperate climate (Rivas-Martínez et al., 2011). Moreover, in the
southeast of this State, there is a somewhat tropical climate in the
Sonoran Desert (Killam et al., 2014). Its complex topography and great
latitudinal extension favour a wide variety of climates from desert to
subalpine environments (Pathak et al., 2018). Thus, its proximity to the
Pacific coast is one of the determining factors in the climate of the State.
2.2. Data
Rainfall values from the climatic database of the meteorological
stations were used and were available on the WRCC website (“Western
Regional Climate Center,” 2020) from 1980 to 2019. Initially, monthly
rainfall (mm) data were selected from 350 stations. The meteorological
stations were chosen due to criteria based on completeness, length and
homogeneity in most of the State (He and Gautam, 2016). Only stations
A. González-Pérez et al.
Fig. 6. (continued).
with less than 10 % of missing values were chosen. The gaps were
completed with the corresponding monthly long-term mean value (Ríos
Cornejo et al., 2015). After that, analysis of the homogeneity of the data
was tested (Blöschl et al., 2019; Gocic and Trajkovic, 2013; Karmeshu,
2015; Song et al., 2019). This study was determined by the Run test
(Thom, 1966) at a 95 % confidence level. This test is recommended by
the WMO, because it is not necessary for the analysed series to follow
normal criteria and it has also been used previously in other climatic
studies (del Río et al., 2013; Meseguer-Ruiz and Sarricolea, 2017).
Finally, 165 stations were chosen for the study, adding their altitude
values and geographic coordinates (Fig. 1) to enable the results be
represented on maps, as will be discussed below. Moreover, for each one
of the meteorological stations, seasonal and annual rainfall values were
calculated. It is widely known that there are four seasons in California:
Spring (March, April and May), Summer (June, July and August),
Autumn (September, October and November) and Winter (December,
January and February). Henceforth those months will be named MAM,
JJA, SON, DJF. The annual rainfall series in California were computed
using Voronoi polygons, considering the weather stations in accordance
with the area of each polygon (Hijmans et al., 2021).
2.3. Trend analysis
Firstly, to attain the slope results from the selected stations, we
applied a modified Sen’s slope method, and the Mann-Kendall test (Liu
et al., 2020) with R package version 4.1.0. The Sen slope estimator is a
non-parametric technique that estimates variations per unit of time in a
series where there is a linear trend. Trend analysis was carried out on a
monthly, seasonal and annual basis. Secondly, to estimate trends and
statistical significance, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used,
this Kendall tau test is one of the most commonly applied non-
parametric tests for noticing trends in environmental time series data,
6
Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
(He and Gautam, 2016; Kukal and Irmak, 2016; Peña-Angulo et al.,
2021; Sarricolea et al., 2019) particularly in hydrological ones (Ahmad
et al., 2015).
In many areas of the globe it is complicated to assess the climate
since there is a lack in the number of weather stations available (Díaz-
Padilla et al., 2011). Therefore, statistical interpolation of the values is
necessary for some specific regions. Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK)
was used as a method of interpolation of geographic values as it is su­
perior to other predictors, and progressively so with data complexity. In
addition, it provides both a straightforward and robust method of data
interpolation (Barber et al., 2017; Gribov and Krivoruchko, 2020; Kri­
voruchko, 2012). To conduct this interpolation, ArcGIS 10.8© (Envi­
ronmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), 2019) software was used
and, to be more precise, an EBK geoprocessing tool was applied.
Furthermore, 17 rainfall trend contour maps were created using the
same software and areas with statistical significance (95 % confidence
level) were overlaid onto the contour maps.
2.4. Selecting the atmospheric teleconnection patterns
Similar to other research (Cordero et al., 2011; Guirguis et al., 2019;
Yu et al., 2019) values of the atmospheric circulation pattern indices
were selected from the Climate Prediction Center available on the NOAA
National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) website (https://www.ncdc.
noaa.gov/teleconnections/). It must be pointed out that the Real-Time
Multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (RMM) indices were obtained
from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (https://www.bom.gov.
au/climate/mjo/graphics /rmm.74toRealtime.txt). It is important to
mention that Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is both a global-scale
complex teleconnection pattern of tropical atmosphere and the domi­
nant mode of inter-seasonal tropical variability (Zheng et al., 2018). The
real-time multivariate index (RMM) is a commonly used index for
A. González-Pérez et al.
Fig. 6. (continued).
defining MJO. The two principal components are RMM1 and RMM2 and
they have been shown to be suitable indices of MJO and related vari­
ability (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004). Consequently, MJO is a two-
dimensional phase space (RMM1 and RMM2) pattern and their union
results in 8 equatorial phases.
The teleconnection patterns chosen first that can influence the
climate in the United States and in the State of California were: El Niño
3.4 (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Jiménez-Quiroz,
2014; Lee and Grotjahn, 2019). Due to the connections in atmospheric
rivers that may modify the Californian climate, indices for Antarctic
Oscillation (AAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Madden-Julian Oscillation
(MJO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific-North American
Pattern (PNA), West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and East Pacific Oscil­
lation (EPO) were also considered.
To discover relationships between rainfall and the teleconnection
patterns selected the partial non-parametric Spearman Test was applied
at confidence level of 95 % (Liu et al., 2020). Its simple interpretation,
robustness, and ability to capture nonlinear correlations makes it a
perfect choice for detecting monotonic trends. This method gives less
importance to outliers and eliminates the effect that the time variable
can have on rainfall and teleconnection pattern variables, which thereby
avoids false relationships (Ríos Cornejo et al., 2015). Finally, using R
software, both the correlation results and their statistical significance
were shown on monthly maps.
2.5. Regionalisation
In order to obtain homogeneous areas both Agglomerative Hierar­
chical Cluster (HCA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were
utilized with all the correlations obtained using the non-parametric
Spearman test (Ríos Cornejo et al., 2015). These areas contain the
7
Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
meteorological stations whose precipitation is related to the same tele­
connection patterns studied. The PCA was done based on eigenvalues
>1, and the HCA was conducted by the Ward Method and squared
Euclidean distance. Once the number of both clusters and stations
belonging to each cluster was obtained, a Voronoi interpolation was
carried out with the data in order to obtain the regionalised map. This
was then divided into areas according to the patterns that have shown
the most correlation with precipitation.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Rainfall trends
Rainfall results from the global analysis in California (Table 1) show
differences in trend directions in the entire State. In April (+0.28 mm
year− 1), May (+0.13 mm year− 1) and December (+0.24 mm year− 1) the
highest values of increases are found. It is worth noting that both
November and March (− 0.68 and − 0.71 mm year− 1) have shown a
negative trend during the period studied. In addition, Autumn shared
the same trend (− 0.38 mm year− 1) and is the only season in which the
decrease is statistically significant.
Some of the results from examining rainfall trends (positive and
negative ones) at monthly seasonal and annual levels from 1980 to 2019
in the State of California are shown in Fig. 2. In general, negative trends
are found in most of the months except for April, May and December
(Fig. 3) when positive trends outweigh the negative ones. As it can be
seen in Fig. 3 the median slope values are located below the zero line in
the majority of the months excluding May, June, July, August,
September and summer where the slope is zero or close to. It should be
specified that in the summer period, precipitation trends do not exist due
to the fact that precipitation in those months is 0 mm for most years in
A. González-Pérez et al.
Fig. 6. (continued).
the period studied. This lack of precipitation in summer is similar to
Mediterranean climate territories around the world.
One particular example of how trends vary each month, season or
annually can be observed in the station at Yosemite and is represented in
both Figs. 4 and 5. In this meteorological station both positive (April)
and negative (September) trends are shown with a red line.
It is also important to mention the difference between the results
presented in Table 1 and Fig. 6. Both of them show rainfall trends but the
former is for the whole State in a general approach and the latter is an
Empirical Bayesian Kriging interpolation of all the meteorological sta­
tions selected in this study, giving a detailed result for each part of the
State of California.
As was mentioned above, Fig. 6, shows the geographical distribution
of rainfall trends on a monthly, seasonal and annual time-scale. The
results of the spatial distribution trends in rainfall and their statistical
significance on annual levels in California show two localized areas
discriminated by the trends they present. From Yreka to Sacramento and
from the San Joaquin Valley over to San Francisco and the rest of
southern California, a negative rainfall trend is presented. In fact, 70 %
of the meteorological stations studied have shown that trend. In the
aforementioned areas there has been a gradual decline in rainfall, up to
− 0.2 mm year− 1, which is consistent with other research (Polade et al.,
2017). However, northern areas of the State such as Coastal Ranges
(+0.49 mm year− 1), the Klamath Mountains, Cascade Ranges (+0.20
mm year− 1), Susanville and Lake Tahoe (+0.40 mm year− 1) have shown
positive trends. As is mentioned above, several researchers have found
that daily precipitation events had shown a steady rise over the last five
decades, showing a difference between the north and the south in terms
of precipitation (Berg and Hall, 2015; Killam et al., 2014; Swain et al.,
2016). According to previous research (He and Gautam, 2016) average
precipitation has shown no statistically significant trends in any month
8
Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
for any territories and, remarkably in our case, none of the study areas
have shown statistically significant trends annually, seasonally or
monthly but for June and Autumn.
A decrease in the precipitation trend could be observed in March (92
% of the stations). This is consistent with previous research conducted in
other parts of the world which showed a negative trend during this
month (Boé and Terray, 2008; da Silva et al., 2015; Mosaffa et al., 2020;
Río et al., 2011). In this study empirical proof has shown, over the period
studied, a negative trend of − 2 mm year− 1 in some points of Sierra
Nevada, curiously from Bridgeport to Mount Whitney (− 0.8 mm year− 1)
which constitute higher altitude areas. It is worth pointing out that the
snow accumulation period became shorter and for this reason the
snowpack accumulation in Sierra Nevada will decrease. (Guan et al.,
2013). In addition, a downward trend was found in most of the territory
except for in the vicinity of Eureka. In this area a positive trend was
found of +0.8 mm year− 1. Turning now to results in April and May, they
show increasing trends, which is the general pattern in most of the State
(58 % and 63 % of the stations respectively, Fig. 2). During April, mainly
in the northern territories from Yreka, the Klamath mountains (Asarian
and Walker, 2016), Redding to Oroville, Placerville, Auburn and over to
Mount Whitney, there is a sharp increase (+1.4 mm year− 1) in rainfall. It
is remarkable that in May on the Coast Ranges, San Francisco, Sacra­
mento Valley and Northern California, a steady decline in rainfall
(− 0.15 mm year− 1) can be seen.
If we focus on our results in spring (− 0.06 mm year− 1), they are
consistent, up to a point, with a decreasing trend (− 0.1 cm decade− 1)
found in other research (He and Gautam, 2016). In our research, it has
been found that in the north, apart from the Sacramento valley, a pos­
itive trend appears from +0.12 mm to +0.6 mm year− 1 (Fig. 6). This is
entirely different to what happens in southern areas such as in San
Diego, the Laguna Mountains and Riverside where there is negative
A. González-Pérez et al.
Fig. 6. (continued).
rainfall up to − 0.6 mm year− 1. In this regard, 73 % of the meteorological
stations show negative trends. According to this data, water storage and
supply systems are essentially dependent on winter/spring snowpack
(Diffenbaugh et al., 2015). In addition, rainfall decreases for the months
of March through May which explains much of the variation in the area
destroyed by fires each year. In this regard, years with low spring rainfall
meant a disproportionately large percentage of the total area was
devastated by fire (Dennison et al., 2008).
If we now turn to the results in June, July and August, no increase in
rainfall trends were found. For instance, 55 % of the stations in June
show negative trends. It is important to mention that during these
months most of the State has values of 0 mm over the period studied. In
fact, in June there is a significant negative trend (− 0.1 mm year− 1) in
the Mojave Desert. In that area the results showed a steady decline in the
last month (− 0.35 mm year− 1), however, it is not statistically signifi­
cant. Related to summer, similar results (90 % of stations) have been
found although a negative trend (− 0.25 mm year− 1) appears in Sierra
Nevada and this suggests an intensification of the probability of dry
summers in the future. This will become more common throughout
California (He and Gautam, 2016) and it will be prone to occasional
drought episodes. Droughts in Southwestern United States have been
intensified by unusual warm summer temperatures and by the lack of
rainfall (Cayan et al., 2013).
According to the results in rainfall trends during the months of
September, October and November, negative values are found in each of
those months (75 %, 82 % and 95 % of the stations studied respectively).
Negative trends bestrew the whole of California but the southern areas
show the lowest values. For instance, the vicinities of Mount Ritter
showed the highest negative values in September, − 1.26 mm year− 1
while in November up to 2.8 mm year− 1. This result coincides, up to a
point, with other research that claimed a negative precipitation trend of
9
Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
− 0.62 mm/month/year for November (Luković et al., 2021). Our results
(Fig. 6) are differentiated into regional isoclines where different gradi­
ents are observed, unlike in the aforementioned research where the
values are for the entire State of California. The rainfall trend observed
in autumn by other authors establishes that, based on observational
precipitation records from the last few decades, decreases in rainfall
trends were considered during SON season since 1979 (Luković et al.,
2021). That statement coincides with our results. The whole of the State
of California displays a decrease in rainfall over the period of study (92
% of the stations). The negative trend found in Sierra Nevada areas is
meaningful, − 1.35 mm year− 1, and the fact that a statistically signifi­
cant negative trend appears in the surroundings of San Francisco (− 0.9
mm year− 1) is of interest. This coincides with the research that claimed
that there is a statically significant decrease in rainfall in autumn − 0.25
mm/month/year and suggests lower precipitation conditions at the
beginning of the wet season in recent decades. (Luković et al., 2021). In
addition, a decrease in non-extreme precipitation dominates the drier
autumn and spring (Dong et al., 2019).
According to the monthly results in January a steady rise in rainfall
was observed over Sierra Nevada (+0.3 mm year− 1) and it spreads to the
San Rafael Mountains, Santa Lucia Ranges and the San Gabriel Moun­
tains up to +0.9 mm year− 1. Meanwhile in the southern part of the State
and inland, in the vicinity of the Mojave Desert, there is a negative trend
in rainfall (− 0.6 mm year− 1). This trend is found in 60 % of the stations
and can be clearly observed in the San Francisco Bay (− 0.9 mm year− 1),
it also spreads north through the Sacramento Valley (− 0.6 mm year− 1)
to Yreka (− 0.3 mm year− 1). Moving to February, the results show that
there is a positive trend (+2.25 mm year− 1) in the northern half of the
State, particularly in Sierra Nevada areas close to Oroville (+1.85 mm
year− 1) and Auburn. In contrast, during this month the areas in the south
have shown decreases (− 1.35 mm year− 1) in rainfall, mainly in the area
A. González-Pérez et al.
Fig. 6. (continued).
adjacent to Mount Witney (− 0.40 mm year− 1), Independence and
Mariposa. This result in February coincides with other research that
northern-mid and high-latitude regions are expected to become wetter,
while southern-subtropical areas are likely to become drier (Berg and
Hall, 2015).
Finally, some research explains that in response to global warming,
there is usually a dry winter throughout the Mediterranean climate re­
gions as a consequence of poleward expansion in subtropical dry zones
(Dong and Leung, 2021). As can be observed in Fig. 6, a positive trend
(+1.2 mm year− 1) is shown in December except for in some coastal areas
with no trends, such as San Francisco Bay, Monterey, the San Rafael
Mountains, Diablo Range and San Luis Obispo. Moreover, the vicinities
of El Centro show negative trends (− 0.6 mm year− 1). The trends are
mostly small, during the wet season, but there is a slight tendency to­
ward moisture being positive but similar to zero (+0.35 cm decade− 1)
(Berg and Hall, 2015). Some research explains that more than half of the
annual precipitation drops in winter (Chang et al., 2015; He and Gau­
tam, 2016). It is worth noting that, in this research, the analysis of trend
anomalies in precipitation (low) during two consecutive winters, 2015/
2016 and 2016/2017, with the influence of El Niño pattern, has been
considered (Wang et al., 2017). For example, during winter, in Sierra
Nevada (California) a great number of storms are associated with At­
mospheric Rivers (AR) (Guan et al., 2013). Moreover, AR will probably
increase rainfall and snowmelt in Sierra Nevada (Huang et al., 2020b).
Atmospheric rivers are modulated by teleconnection patterns (Guirguis
et al., 2019), the following section elaborates on the correlations of
precipitation with teleconnection patterns.
Taking everything into consideration, these results suggest that the
situation could be leading to a rise in seasonal rainfall in California. In
this regard, creating models of hydrological procedures already provide
adequate spatial detail in order to evaluate hydroclimatic causes that
10
Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
will be life-threatening, in preparation for risk to water resources and
ecosystems, risk of wildfire and other crucial matters (Cayan et al.,
2013). Climate models show that extended warming and intensification
of seasonal drying trends in the future are likely to result in further rises
in extreme autumn fire weather situations all over California (Goss et al.,
2020).
3.2. Teleconnection patterns
This section will show the results of the spatial and statistical analysis
between rainfall and the nine teleconnection patterns chosen. Together
these results provide important insights into understanding the link that
teleconnection patterns might have had on the rainfall over California
from 1980 to 2019. The results are summarised in Fig. 7 except for the
EPO data in December, which was not available.
The results are also shown on monthly maps where the meteoro­
logical stations in red are significantly correlated (positive or negative)
with each one of the patterns studied (Figs. 8 to 17).
It is well known that Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) affects the
rainfall relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in this
area with positive interference (Pavia et al., 2016). If we focus on our
results, the meteorological stations which significantly correlate with
PDO are located in northern coastal areas in April, May and August
except for in December where the correlations also appear in southern
coastal areas (Fig. 8). These results are consistent with other research in
which PDO/ENSO brings precipitation and takes place along the
northern Californian coast and over Sierra Nevada (Guirguis et al.,
2019). It is important to observe that previous research work has
pointed out that in summer, over the centre and southern areas of Cal­
ifornia, despite the lack of correlation (small or insignificant), the con­
tributions of these two patterns to causing precipitation are significant
A. González-Pérez et al.
Fig. 6. (continued).
(Cheng et al., 2021). In the same manner, as in other local research, Los
Angeles has years where there is more than beyond average rainfall
during a positive phase of PDO. This variability in precipitation is
influenced by ENSO and PDO whose relationships becomes stronger in
the southern areas of the State (Killam et al., 2014). The increase in
winter pluvial risks over the entire State of California are connected with
positive phases of PDO while positive phases of ENSO affect Northern
California (Kam and Sheffield, 2016). Our study found that ENSO is
likely to explain the precipitation trend in January, February and March
(Fig. 9), and accordingly, ENSO is a more meaningful predictor than
PDO over briefer periods, such as from October to March (Cheng et al.,
2021). In our study 18.1 % of the stations seem to be affected by ENSO in
January and 11.5 % in both February and March. In other research,
Californian precipitation showed a strong correlation with extratropical
cyclone weather conditions over the Eastern Pacific to the west of Cal­
ifornia, with positive correlation (0.8) (Chang et al., 2015). However,
Chang et al. (2015) mentioned that ENSO can only shed light on part of
the link between Californian rainfall and extratropical cyclone activity,
due to the fact that the correlation between winter rainfall and el Niño
3.4 index was just 0.38 between 1979/1980 and 2013/2014.
Moving to the results of correlations between Pacific-North Amer­
ican teleconnection patterns (PNA) and precipitation, it is interesting
that 37.0 % of the stations correlate in June (Fig. 10). Positive PNA
circulation phases make Northern California dry because of the associ­
ation of PNA with drier forms that seep into Northern California. This in
turn leads to fewer dry conditions in Southern California and West
Coast/Southwest California (Lin et al., 2017). During the month of June,
most of the stations correlated with PNA are located in the central areas
of the State; this pattern might therefore be related to the distribution of
rainfall. For example, as we saw in the previous section, there is a slight
decrease in the precipitation trend in June during the years of study. In
11
Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
addition, PDO, ENSO and PNA have been proven to have significant
correlation with precipitation and groundwater fluctuations (Velasco
et al., 2017). It is worth noting that predicting winter precipitation over
a 3–4-week period in the southern and eastern US, it is highly correlated
to NAO, ENSO 3.4 and PNA indices (Wang and Robertson, 2019).
If we focus on North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Fig. 11) it is the
major large-scale teleconnection pattern over the extra-tropical Atlantic
Ocean (Whan and Zwiers, 2016). In this study, the results show that
February and May are the months with the highest correlation with
precipitation (61.8 and 50.3 %). In addition, there is a lower value in
April (13.9 %) where the correlated meteorological stations are found
both in the coastal areas of Los Angeles, San Diego and Sierra Nevada
Ranges (Fig. 11). Decadal wet phases of the precipitation pattern in
California are associated with November to March circulation modes
such as low South-eastern pressure from the NAO pattern. This favours
recurrent North Pacific winter storms shifting towards California (Cayan
et al., 1998; Hurrell, 1995). In this regard, the NAO exerts a substantial
influence on precipitation in other Mediterranean climate type regions
(López-Moreno et al., 2011). NAO is a regional manifestation of a
hemispheric-wide mode known as Arctic Oscillation (AO). AO has been
defined as the atmospheric pressure at middle latitudes that fluctuates
between negative and positive phases. Its high frequency oscillation
from those phases impacts on both daily and weekly patterns (Brolley,
2007; Sellars et al., 2015). A typically positive (negative) AO phase is
linked with wetter (drier) conditions over California, in fact, AO has
been claimed to correlate with the forecast of precipitation differences
across California at least from 2015 to 2017 (Wang and Robertson,
2019). Moreover, this pattern correlates highly with the North Atlantic
Oscillation pattern (Walker and Bliss, 1932), and has been an issue of
much interest over the last few years (e.g., Wallace and Gutzler, 1981;
Hurrell, 1995). Previous research has claimed that those two patterns
A. González-Pérez et al. Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211

Fig. 6. (continued).

Fig. 7. Heatmap with the percentage of meteorological stations that have shown positive (+) or negative (− ) statistical significance correlations between tele­
connection patterns and rainfall at a confidence level of 95 %l. Blank spaces are zero percentage values that have been removed for clarity. The top histogram (blue)
shows the percentage contribution of the teleconnection patterns to rainfall in the meteorological stations per month. The histogram in the right (green) shows the
percentage contribution of each teleconnection pattern. PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), PNA (Pacific-North American), NAO
(North Atlantic Oscillation), RMM1 and RMM2 (Real Multivariate MJO), EPO (East Pacific Oscillation), WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation), AO (Artic Oscillation) and
AAO (Antarctic Oscillation). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

12
A. González-Pérez et al. Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211

Fig. 8. Percentage of meteorological stations in the State of California with significant correlations (positive in green, negative in red) between PDO and rainfall. (For
interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Fig. 9. Percentage of meteorological stations in the State of California with significant correlations (positive in green, negative in red) between ENSO and rainfall.
(For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Fig. 10. Percentage of meteorological stations in the State of California with significant correlations (positive in green, negative in red) between PNA and rainfall.
(For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

correlate well together, there is a clear difference that could illustrate northern areas of the State, mainly in June.
how we attempt to unravel physical mechanisms in northern hemi­ According to our Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) results, RMM1
sphere atmospheric irregularity (Ambaum et al., 2001). According to seems to have a stronger relationship with precipitation than RMM2
this, our AO correlation results (Fig. 12) showed 29.1 % in the central- over the period studied (Figs. 13 and 14). It is important to note that

13
A. González-Pérez et al. Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211

Fig. 11. Percentage of meteorological stations in the State of California with significant correlations (positive in green, negative in red) between NAO and rainfall.
(For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Fig. 12. Percentage of meteorological stations in the State of California with significant correlations (positive in green, negative in red) between AO and rainfall. (For
interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Fig. 13. Percentage of meteorological stations in the State of California with significant correlations (positive in green, negative in red) between RMM1 and rainfall.
(For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

mainly meteorological stations located in San Francisco Bay and its vi­
cinities had shown any correlation. These results agree with other
research that investigated the inter-annual variability in the range of
MJO found, and apparently there are no direct and systematic re­
lationships between extreme precipitation and this index (Jones, 2000).
However, recent research has claimed that MJO would be suitable as a
predictor of pentad precipitation at weeks 3–6 (15–42 days) (Nardi
et al., 2020).
The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) pattern is one of the foremost
teleconnection patterns over winter months in the Northern Hemisphere
(Dai and Tan, 2019b). In addition, WPO/EPO is connected with more
precipitation in California, which has been attributed to circulation
features that disturb the path and orientation of atmospheric rivers at
landfall (Guirguis et al., 2019). According to our results, EPO (Fig. 15)

14
A. González-Pérez et al. Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211

Fig. 14. Percentage of meteorological stations in the State of California with significant correlations (positive in green, negative in red) between RMM2 and rainfall.
(For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Fig. 15. Percentage of meteorological stations in the State of California with significant correlations (positive in green, negative in red) between EPO and rainfall.
(For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Fig. 16. Percentage of meteorological stations in the State of California with significant correlations (positive in green, negative in red) between WPO and rainfall.
(For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

seems to be connected with precipitation in October (40.6 %) and
related to trend results, the effect might mean a decrease in precipita­
tion. WPO (Fig. 16), on the other hand, could have a greater effect on the
increase in precipitation over April and May (41.2 % and 21.2 %
respectively) (Fig. 12).
Finally, according to Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), high correlations
have been found in February (54.5 %) and April (70.9 %) (Fig. 17).
Despite these results, this teleconnection pattern mainly takes place in
the Southern Hemisphere. It was stated that positive phases could alter
the circulation of MJO and ENSO in extratropical zones of the Pacific,
specifically in wintertime (Carvalho et al., 2005).
To sum up, it can be seen that the relationship between tele­
connection patterns and precipitation is widespread all over the State of
California. According to Table 2 and related to what has been stated

15
A. González-Pérez et al.
Fig. 17. Percentage of meteorological stations in the State of California with significant correlations (positive in green, negative in red) between AAO and rainfall.
(For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Fig. 18. Regionalisation of California according to teleconnection patterns that
correlate the most with precipitation from 1980 to 2019. (Yellow = Area 1, is
made up of 66 meteorological stations; blue = Area 2, is made up of 45
meteorological stations; green = Area 4, consist of 34 meteorological stations
and red = Area 3 is made up of 20 meteorological stations). (For interpretation
of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web
version of this article.)
above, precipitation in January seems to correlate mainly with ENSO,
while in February AAO and NAO are the most correlated patterns with
precipitation (54.6 % and 61.8 % respectively). In that month, EPO and
ENSO show correlation to a lesser extent. It is significant that only ENSO
correlates in March (11 %). Moving on to April, AAO is the most
correlated pattern (70.3 %) followed by EPO (18.2 %) and NAO (13.9
%), the latter is the most correlated in May (50.3 %) followed by EPO
(21.2 %). During the summer, in June for instance, PNA is the most
correlated to precipitation in 37.0 % of the meteorological stations. In
August, the correlation values obtained by EPO (11.5 %) and MJO (7.9
16
Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
%) stand out. The latter is the one that most correlates with precipitation
(9.1 %) in the month of September. EPO and WPO are the most corre­
lated in October while in November neither value is worth noting.
Finally, in December, the teleconnection patterns that could have the
greatest effect on rainfall are PDO (17.0 %) and PNA (16.4 %).
3.2.1. Regionalisation
The results of regionalisation show four different areas (clusters) as
can be observed in Fig. 18. The percentage of correlation for each area is
presented in Fig. 19 and Table 2 (Supplementary material). In the North
of the State (Area 1 in yellow) rainfall is highly correlated with AAO
(68.5 %), NAO (84.9 %) and EPO (72.6 %) (Fig. 19). It is important that
both of the former are related to rainfall in February while the latter are
in October. The Area is made up of 66 meteorological stations. Related
to the area in blue (Area 2), it consists of 45 meteorological stations and
it extends from the centre of California up to Los Angeles and to the
southern areas of Sierra Nevada. In this area both AAO (84.3 %) and
WPO (69.8 %) correlate in April. In addition, here precipitation is
correlated with NAO (77.8 %) in May and to a lesser extent with PNA
(52.4 %) in June. If we move to the green one (Area 4), that goes from
Death Valley to r the entire Mojave Desert and up to Oceanside (34
meteorological stations), ENSO is highly correlated with precipitation in
January, February, and March, (62.5 %, 58.33 % and 79.8 % respec­
tively) and also, to a lesser extent, in May (37.5 %). Interestingly, this
area resembles the Mojave Climate Region (Abatzoglou et al., 2009).
The southern area in red (Area 3) deals with Imperial Valley, the
southern Santa Rosa Mountains and the Mojave Desert. This area is
made up of 20 meteorological stations and there are no clear tele­
connection patterns which show high correlation to precipitation.
Related to AO in February, NAO in March and PDO in December merely
40 % is shown (Fig. 18).
4. Conclusions
The main purposes of this research were: firstly, to determine pre­
cipitation trends in California from 1980 to 2019, on monthly, seasonal
and annual levels. In addition, precipitation trend contour maps were
designed for 17 levels. Moreover, statistically significant areas were also
overlaid on the contour maps. Secondly, to clarify the relationship be­
tween precipitation and up to nine teleconnection patterns whose results
were given on a monthly basis. Thirdly, to highlight areas where the
teleconnection patterns are correlated with precipitation and to what
extent.
Finally, in accordance with the results, some of the significant out­
comes of this research are specified along these lines.
A. González-Pérez et al.
Fig. 19. Histograms of the percentage of meteorological stations in each area with significant correlations between teleconnection patterns and precipitation.
– The global analysis of precipitation in California shows broad spatial
and seasonal differences in trend directions throughout the whole
State. During the period studied the highest positive values are found
in April (+0.28 mm year− 1) and December (+0.24 mm year− 1),
while in March (− 0.71 mm year− 1) and November (− 0.68 mm
year− 1) there is a negative trend. Both increases and decreases are
established mainly in mountainous areas and consequently, in those
areas, the difference in monthly rainfall rises, showing that the
precipitation phenomena happens over shorter periods of time.
Moreover, on a seasonal scale, autumn has shown a significant
decrease (− 0.38 mm year− 1) in rainfall trends.
– The data reported here appears to support the assumption that on an
annual level, from Yreka, to Sacramento and San Joaquin Valley,
over San Francisco to the rest of southern California a negative
precipitation trend in presented (− 0.2 mm year− 1), while the
17
Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
remaining territories, mainly in the North, have shown a positive
trend (+0.3 mm year− 1).
– One of the most significant findings to emerge from this study is that
in rainy seasons both in winter and spring, the positive rainfall trend
is located in the northern half of the State, while a decrease in rainfall
was brought to the fore in the southern half.
– The teleconnection patterns that correlate most with precipitation in
California are North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), East Pacific Oscillation (EPO), West Pacific
Oscillation (WPO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO).
– Monthly precipitation is correlated with teleconnection patterns in
April, May, July, and August, showing at least a little correlation
with every pattern studied. In December precipitation correlates
with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Pacific-North American
(PNA).
A. González-Pérez et al.
Fig. 19. (continued).
– California is a territory, based on what is observed in this study,
where rainfall trends have shown great variability throughout the
State due to its orography, mainly in mountainous areas. In addition,
this precipitation might be influenced by the behaviour of atmo­
spheric teleconnection patterns, due to the fact that it is a territory
where teleconnection patterns commonly take place. However, there
are four different areas where Area 4, described above, has shown
high correlation values with ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)
and rainfall over the period studied, during January, February and
March. In Area 2, AAO and WPO correlate the most in April while
NAO and PNA are in May and June respectively. In addition, in Area
1 rainfall correlates highly with AAO (68.5 %), NAO (84.9 %) and
EPO (72.6 %) while in Area 3 there is not a clearly teleconnection
pattern with more than 40 % of stations correlated.
Finally, the authors consider that these findings provide insights for
18
Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
future research related to teleconnection patterns and meteorological
phenomena. In addition, it is important to research local physics,
topography, thermodynamics and also to investigate other potential
driving factors of change. Moreover, the results of this study have a
broad implication for the future, for example, knowing about the past
and trying to predict how precipitation will behave on a more detailed
scale, than that which has been investigated previously, to our knowl­
edge. In this regard, this research can help other professionals, such as
environmental managers and politicians to take the necessary measures
in the face of precipitation processes, whereabouts they should take
them and with what urgency. Processes that, due to climate change, are
expected to worsen in the course of time.
Data Availability
The datasets generated and analysed during the current study are not
A. González-Pérez et al.
publicly available due to the fact that R package is in the process of being
published. However, the original data source can be consulted on htt
ps://wrcc.dri.edu/ and are available from the corresponding author
upon reasonable request.
Author contributions
Ángel Penas and Sara del Río contributed to the study’s conception
and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were
carried out by Ramón Álvarez Esteban. The first draft of the manuscript
was written by Alejandro González Pérez and all the authors commented
on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved
the final manuscript.
Ethical approval and responsibilities of Authors
All authors in this research are aware of the submission and declare
that:
– The manuscript is not submitted to any other journal for simulta­
neous consideration.
– The submitted work is original and has not been published elsewhere
in any form or language.
– Results of this research are presented clearly, honestly, and without
fabrication, falsification or inappropriate data manipulation.
– All authors agreed with the content and that all give explicit consent
to submission and publication.
– This work does not include research including humans or animals.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
A. González-Pérez: Methodology, Software, Formal analysis,
Investigation, Data curation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review &
editing, Visualization, Funding acquisition. R. Álvarez-Esteban: Soft­
ware, Validation, Formal analysis, Resources, Data curation, Visualiza­
tion, Writing – review & editing. A. Penas: Conceptualization,
Validation, Resources, Writing – review & editing, Visualization, Su­
pervision. S. del Río: Conceptualization, Validation, Resources, Writing
– review & editing, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare the following financial interests/personal re­
lationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:
Alejandro Gonzalez reports financial support was provided by Junta de
Castilla y Leon Consejeria de Educacion.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
Acknowledgements
This paper was supported by the European Regional Development Fund
(ERDF) and the Junta de Castilla y León (JCyL). The grant was awarded
to the first author and included in a Fellowship Scheme for a Doctoral
Training Program: Orden de 12 de diciembre de 2019 de la Consejería de
Educación (extracto publicado en el B.O.C. y L. n.◦ 245, de 23 de diciembre.
BDNS (Identifi.): 487971. The Authors would like to thank Ruth J.R.
Winter for her advice on English terminology.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128211.
19
Journal of Hydrology 612 (2022) 128211
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