CARBONATES IN GUATEMALA - ANALYSIS

Country Report | Dec 2020

KEY DATA FINDINGS Market Sizes

Carbonates continues to see positive growth in 2020, thanks to ongoing popularity Sales of Carbonates
with Guatemalan consumers Off-trade Volume - million litres - 2006-2025
Carbonates records 5% off-trade value growth and 2% off-trade volume growth in
2020, to reach GTQ11.1 billion and 1.2 billion litres 1234 Forecast
2000
On-trade volume of carbonates declines 42% in 2020, due to foodservice closures as
a result of COVID-19, to reach 202 million litres
Pepsicola Interamericana de Guatemala SA maintains small lead over Coca-Cola de
1500
Guatemala SA in carbonates in 2020, with 32% company off-trade value share
Carbonates is expected to record 6% off-trade value CAGR (2% constant 2020 off-
trade value CAGR) and 3% off-trade volume CAGR over the forecast period, to reach
1000
GTQ15.1 billion and 1.4 billion litres in 2025

2020 IMPACT
500
Carbonates continues to see positive growth thanks to ongoing
popularity to Guatemalan consumers
0
Carbonates remain hugely popular with Guatemalan consumers and it is traditional to 2006 2020 2025
drink carbonates with lunch. Pre-COVID-19 this trend was prevalent within workplaces,
from construction workers through to office employees and, in 2020, the trend has
simply switched to at-home consumption. Furthermore, due to foodservice closures
Sales Performance of Carbonates
and the prohibition of social gatherings and activities, there is a move towards larger
% Y-O-Y Off-trade Volume Growth 2006-2025
pack sizes and multi-packs of carbonates for storage at home; whereas, within work or
social settings, it was the norm for consumers to purchase smaller quantities. This
uptick in at-home consumption is also attributed to the fact that Guatemalan
consumers are seeking comforting and indulgent beverages, which give them a sugar or
2.3% Forecast
6%
caffeine boost. Therefore, whilst carbonates has been negatively affected by the
closure of on-trade channels and off-trade volume is lower in 2020 than it was in 2019,
the fluctuations are relatively small in retail losses. 4%

Stronger consumer focus on existing products leads to players

cancelling new launches 2%

One notable change in consumer trends in 2020 is a stronger focus on leading brands
and existing products, in a move away from the experimental premiumisation with 0%
innovative and exotic flavours as seen in 2019. For example, as seen with Franklin &
Sons, which is imported from the UK and offers flavours such as British dandelion,
lemon and English elderflower, and cloudy apple and Yorkshire rhubarb with cinnamon. -2%
Consumers in 2020 are more price sensitive, thus less likely to wish to invest in trying
new flavours or speciality items. Therefore, players in carbonates have halted all new
product launches accordingly. This has resulted in stronger consumer loyalty to the -4%
2006 2020 2025
large brands they know well, whilst small and niche brands struggle with this change in
consumer demand.

Pepsi maintains its small lead on Coca-Cola, with both players active in Sales of Carbonates by Category
charitable efforts in the country Off-trade Volume - million litres - 2020 Growth Performance
Pepsicola Interamericana de Guatemala SA maintains a small lead over Coca-Cola de Cola Carbonates
Guatemala SA in carbonates in 2020, with both players gaining shares in 2020 and with 939,6
no notable competition from the other (very few) players in the category. Both global Non-Cola Carbonates
giants have leveraged their distribution strengths in 2020, in order to maintain 294,2
positions at points of sale, including increasing support to small retailers and -5% 0% 5%
communities. Both players are already active in charitable work in the country. PepsiCo
is active in campaigns and charity drives regarding nutrition and food supplies and, in CARBONATES 1233,8 CURRENT % CAGR % CAGR
direct response to COVID-19, the company has invested USD60 million globally, along YEAR % 2015-2020 2020-2025
GROWTH
with raising an addition USD59 million from other donors, to bring food and other vital
resources to the most affected communities. As part of this global effort, the company
is providing funding for protective gear for healthcare workers, testing and screening
services, and is in the process of distributing more than 100 million nutritious meals to
at-risk populations. Guatemala is on the list of beneficiaries for these efforts. Coca-Cola
is already well-known for its commitments to protect the land rights of farmers and
communities in the world’s top sugarcane producing regions, including in Guatemala,
where the company also addresses child labour and forced labour issues.

© Euromonitor Interna onal 2021 Page 1 of 2

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES Competitive Landscape

Players strategize to boost sales post-lockdown, with the return of new Company Shares of Carbonates
product developments % Share (NBO) - Off-trade Volume - 2020
Players saw lost volumes during the strongest season for carbonates in 2020, with Pepsicola Interamericana... 32.2%
COVID-19 restrictions occurring over the warmest months of April and May. The
Guatemalan summer season typically sees the highest sales in carbonates, due to Coca-Cola de Guatemala S... 28.1%
people being out and about and socialising. However, due to foodservice closures and
Ajemaya SA 10.2%
lockdowns, this meant the “high season” took a hit. Players are now considering
strategies to re-boost growth post-lockdown, including a return to new product Fábrica de Bebidas Gaseo... 10.0%
developments which were abandoned in 2020. It is likely that new launches will not be
completely experimental or premium, but rather players will focus on existing popular Others 19.4%
lines and offer new variants, for example with low/no-sugar options to meet growing
health and wellness trends which have been enhanced by COVID-19.

Reduced consumer spending power calls for a range of economical

Brand Shares of Carbonates
packaging sizes to meet all budgets % Share (LBN) - Off-trade Volume - 2020
Lower income levels and reduced consumer spending power as a result of COVID-19
Pepsi 20.7%
mean that players will need to keep prices affordable in order to continue to stimulate
sales. Consumers are likely to seek cheaper products, either smaller sizes or economy Coca-Cola 20.1%
packs, along with other incentives such as returnable bottles for discounts and price Big 10.2%
promotions. Even pre-COVID-19, players were expanding the range of packaging sizes
they offer, in order to meet consumer demand and ensure affordability. For example, Super Cola 5.4%
as seen with smaller 200ml cans and 233ml PET bottles, along with economy-priced, Mirinda 3.4%
family-sized PET bottles from 1.5 litres to 3.3 litres. This trend is likely to be amplified
across the forecast period. 7-Up 3.0%
Pepsi Light 2.6%
Recovery of on-trade set to boost carbonates as both accompaniments Coca-Cola Light 2.6%
to meals and mixers for alcoholic drinks
Grapette 2.3%
The recovery of on-trade channels will boost carbonates over the forecast period. Pre- Fanta 2.1%
COVID-19, carbonates was strong in foodservice, not only to accompany a meal, but also
Sprite 1.6%
as mixers with alcoholic drinks in bars and nightclubs. Therefore, as consumers return
to foodservice channels, this will once again stimulate carbonates in on-trade, both in Rica 1.1%
large quantities to be used as mixers for alcohol, along with single serve packs for
Tiky 1.1%
consumers on the go, or to accompany lunch.
Carnaval Soda 0.9%
Coca-Cola Zero Sugar 0.8%
Super Cola Light 0.8%
Crush 0.7%
Super Lime Lemon 0.7%
Lift 0.2%
Others 19.6%

5-Year Trend
Increasing share Decreasing share No change

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