Tourism and the Trade Accounts

Of Turkey

Research question: To what extent can the tourism industry correct the
balance of trade
In Turkey?

Subject: Economics

Word count: 3,562

Table of contents

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………….2

Background Information…………………………………………………………………………. 3-4

Methodology………………………………………………………………………………………… 5

Data Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………… 6-18

Exchange rate…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6-8

Contribution to GDP…………………………………………………………………………………………… 9-12

Elasticity of demand for Tourism…………………………………………………………………………… 12-15

Contribution to Employment level……………………………………………………………………………. 16-18

Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………….. 19-20

Work Cited………………………………………………………………………………………21-23

1
Introduction
This research aims to investigate the effects of the tourism industry on the balance of trade

deficit in turkey and eventually digging out possibilities for Turkish lira sustain the value from

dropping even more. This investigation will focus on the tourism industry. The reason this

particular industry has been selected is because of its size contribution to the national GDP

and its importance to the balance of trade, as it has a contribution between 11% and 15% to

the total GDP from the services sector. So, to what extent can the tourism industry correct

the balance of trade deficit.

This research will focus on the past five years from 2013 to 2017 and its corresponding data

and the variables that will be considered for the analysis will be the Exchange rate

(Lira/US$), Turkish GDP, Turkish Imports, Turkish manufacturing sector’s contribution,

Turkish Agriculture sector’s contribution, Turkish Tourism sector contribution. This research

encompasses the economic theory of exchange rate and balance of trade where there a lot

of factors that affect it and get affected by it. In this research we will figure out the effect of

the change in the exchange rate on the tourism industry and the balance of trade of Turkey.

The economic tools that will be made use of in this research are elasticity concept and the

percentage changes together with graphical analysis. These tools are the most beneficial

for my research as they help to countify the impact of independent variable on the

dependent variable.

The benefit of this research will help us to design the short run measures to immediately

correct the worsening situation of Current Account Balance for Turkey. This study will also

help us in understanding the importance of the tourism industry for developing appropriate

policies that can help this industry to grow, with more jobs creation, investment

opportunities, and sustaining the value of the currency.

2
Background Information

Turkey is known as one of the best destinations for tourists during the summer, as its prices

are relatively cheap, and it has amazing weather, as well as many touristic sites that attract

culture lovers who are interested in exploring the historic sites in Turkey. In 2018 turkey has

reached an all-time high number of tourists into the country with around 56 million tourists

while getting attracted to a deprecation of exchange rate against US dollars. In such

situation this is beneficial for the country as with the increase of tourism it creates more jobs

in the economy and the investors holding US dollars are interested in investing in turkey as

their money is worth a lot in Turkish currency which allows the economic growth to

increase.

Source: Trading Economics

The graph is showing the tourists arrival for the year 2017-18. It is a monthly statistic

showing a clear indication of summer vacations influx of the tourists in the country reaching

maximum in the month of July 2018.

3
The Turkish economy is one of the world’s developed countries, as it is one of the worlds

newly industrialized countries. Turkey has the world’s largest 18 th nominal GDP and the 13th

largest GDP by purchasing power (Projected GDP Ranking). Moreover, Turkey is one of the

top producers of agricultural products, textiles, transportation equipment and construction

material.

Since August 2018, Turkey has been experiencing a currency and a debt emergency,

portrayed by the Turkish lira (TRY) diving in esteem, high inflation, rising obtaining costs,

and correspondingly rising credit defaults. The emergency was brought about by the

Turkish economy's extreme current account shortfall and forging currency debt, in blend

with the President Erdogan's unconventional thoughts regarding loan fee strategy.

Recently Turkey has announced the launch of its new airport which is the largest airport in

the world as a plan to host more tourists into Turkey as the old airport in Istanbul does not

have the capacity of hosting the predicted number of tourists in the upcoming years.

4
Methodology
In this study secondary data is made use of for the research, the variables selected, and the

data collected will help in finding the tendency of tourism industry to improve the trade

balance and hence the current account balance.

Analytical tools like the percentage change analysis (which is a measure of percent

increase or percent decrease which a variable under consideration gains or loses intensity,

magnitude, or value) is one of the tools which will help in the analysis of the data collected.

The second quantitative tool is elasticity which is the responsiveness of a dependent

variable to changes in influencing variable like price, income, demand, and supply. Also,

tools like unemployment level in the economy (individuals are unemployed when they are

part of the labor force and are actively seeking work but cannot find a job).

International trade theory together with employment theories will be used for the analysis in

this research.

The variables included are percentage of tourism earning in Turkish GDP, tourist’s

expenditure in turkey, employment in the tourism industry, exchange rate of the lira against

the US dollar, Turkish citizens leaving turkey for tourism, Turkish GDP growth, employment

rate of turkey, trade balance, travel and tourism percentage of GDP and the number of

tourists visiting turkey. All this data collected was under a time frame of past four years

(year 2014-2017).

Moreover, Keynesian equilibrium output and the employment diagrams will be used to

understand the theoretical framework of the study.

5
Data Analysis
Exchange rate

An exchange rate is the value at which one currency can be sold or exchanged for another

country's currency on the foreign exchange market (Price Elasticity of Demand). The value

of the currencies undergoes changes as today most of the currencies follow floating

exchange rate regime and this is caused by the changes in demand and the supply forces

for the currencies in the market. The exchange rate for the Turkish lira has been

deprecating since the start of terrorist attacks on turkey which was the reason that tourism

dropped in turkey and its exchange rate started depreciating, however later the terrorist

attacks stopped but the currency didn’t stop losing its value albeit the country’s economic

growth witnessed increased, the number of tourists been increasing, but still the balance of

trade deficit has widened even more. The connection to that is the Turkish GDP growth

making Turkish nationals demand more luxurious imported products and services as the

statistics show. Another main reason for the fall of the Turkish lira was the recent economic

sanctions imposed on its products since the military coup and its political issue with the

Unite States of America which is becoming worse, as in 2018 president Trump has decided

to double the tariffs which led to worsening of the Turkish lira.

6
 Source: Turkey Tourist Arrivals

In the graph above after the year 2014 the Turkish lira started deprecating and during the

summer of 2018 it has hit its all-time high against the US dollar. All of that is due to the

political issues together with the higher inflation rates touching 15.9% which was during the

year of 2018 and the associated lowering market demand for Turkish liras.

This drop in the exchange rate has improved and attracted tourism in Turkey as Akhil Shah,

spokesperson for Debenhams Personal Finance, said: “It’s clear to see what an important

role currency exchange rates play when it comes to people booking their breaks abroad.

However, factors like demand for the imported products and the number of local tourists

travelling abroad can be tamed by the demand management policies provided the tourism

industry registers its higher sensitivity for the change in the exchange rate (Turkish lira

against US$).

7
 Table A

Year No. of tourists visiting Turkey Exchange rate (1 USD)

2013 34 910 098 1.982
2014 36 837 900 2.276
2015 36 244 632 2.834
2016 25 352 213 3.146
2017 32 410 034 3.794

Source: Yearly Average Currency Exchange Rates

The above table shows the number of tourists visited during the time period 2013-2017.

There is an obvious decline in the tourists visiting the country for the year 2015-16 and then

a subsequent recovery is registered. This drop has been due to the host of terrorist attack

together with the episode of failed military coup in the year 2016. Although the Turkish

currency falling against US$ proved to be good temptation for the tourists to attract but

safety issues did not help to sail the things smooth.

8
Contribution to GDP

Gross domestic product is the total monetary value of all the final goods and services

produced in an economy in a given period of time (“GDP as a Measure of National Income).

The Turkish GDP counts largely on the Tourism industry as it has a huge contribution in the

GDP as 2017 tourism had 42.1% share in the Total GDP, which shows that Turkey leans on

Tourism as its main source of income.

Source: Turkey GDP

This graph shows the GDP of Turkey for the past 10 years in USD, in 2013 the GDP

reached the peak. However, due to the increase in inflation, political Instability, and the

higher interest rate, GDP registered a decline from 2014 to 2017. In turkey the interest rate

and inflation has increased over the past years which caused the consumers to start

spending more as money lost its real purchasing value which caused them to decrease

their savings and the increased interest rates forced them to spend more due to higher cost

of production which to some extent lowered the GDP.

9
 Source: Turkey: Travel & Tourism's Total GDP Contribution 2012-2028 | Statistic

This graph shows the total contribution of travel and tourism to GDP in Turkey, since 2013

the GDP started depending on tourism the most. “The GDP is calculated by the following

formula GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government investment +

government spending + (exports – imports).” (GDP Formula)

Table B

GDP growth % Exports

DATE VALUE USD Billion
2013 8.49%
2013 209,986,000,000
2014 5.17% 2014 220,871,000,000
2015 6.09% 2015 199,010,000,000
2016 3.18% 2016 187,966,000,000
2017 7.44% 2017 210,162,000,000

Source: GDP Growth (Annual %) Source: Turkey exports

According to the table above it clearly shows how the GDP growth dropped from 2013 to

2016 however it has improved dramatically in 2017 which is due to the recovery of exports

earnings in 2017. This data builds a relation between the GDP growth and the total exports
10
of goods and services of the country. It is clear from the data above that as the exports

decline the GDP growth rate also declines and the exports earning show recovery the GDP

growth follows the same pattern.

Since tourism contribution is a component of Exports earnings so in a quest of digging out

the relationship if any between GDP growth and the tourism earning following mathematical

calculations are brought into play:

Percentage changes in GDP and the percentage change of the Tourism revenues for the

years 2013 to 2017 has been calculated by using the following formula:

Percentage change = (current value – previous value) / previous value * 100

GDP % change in Tourism Revenues % change in Tourism

Date
(Billion$) GDP (Billion$) Revenues
2013 950.58 _ 145.81 _
2014 934.19 -1.72% 141.47 -3%
2015 859.8 -7.96% 118.38 -16.32%
2016 863.72 0.46% 101.68 -14.10%
2017 851.1 -1.50% 94.64 -7.00%
Table C

Source: “Turkey - Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2022 | Statistic” and “Turkey: Travel &

Tourism's Total GDP Contribution 2012-2028 | Statistic” and student calculations

It has shown in the table C above that for the years 2014 and 2015 the GDP has

decreased massively similarly the tourism revenues have decreased as well. However, in

2016 the GDP has improved slightly but the tourism earnings have still dropped, and the

obvious reason is the attempt of military coup in July 2016. In 2017 the GDP further

dropped, and tourism earnings still dropped further. This shows that in 2016 even after the

improvement of the GDP turkey still suffered a loss in the tourism revenues which shows

the carried forward effect of the political turmoil in the year 2016. The balance of trade is

one of the key segments of a nation's total national output (GDP) equation. The gross

11
domestic product increases when there is a surplus in trade, which is, the all-out estimation

of goods and services that national producers sell abroad surpasses the total value of

imported products and services that local consumers purchase. In case the domestic

consumers spend more on remote items that have been imported more than what the local

makers sell to outside customers, an exchange deficiency will take place at that point and

the GDP will drop.

Elasticity of demand for Tourism

Since tourists before leaving for vacations budget their tour by looking for the most

attractive places they can visit where the money they have holds higher value while keeping

in mind safety and leisure concerns.

Elasticity of demand is a measure of sensitivity of the quantity demanded of a good with

respect change in its own price (Price Elasticity of Demand (PED)). Here we are using

exchange rate instead of the price level to see its impact on the tourism demand in Turkey.

Elasticity of Tourism w.r.t exchange

Date
rate
2014 -0.081
2015 -0.376
2016 -1.306
2017 -0.268

Source: student calculations and Yearly Average Currency Exchange Rates

Here the calculations show that albeit there is fall in the exchange rate which should have

attracted the tourism earnings in turkey but there is a continuous fall in the tourists

expenditures shown by the negative elasticity values.

12
But this analysis will not be meaningful unless the sensitivity of Tourism sector is not

compared with the other sectors of the economy like Agriculture and the industrial sector in

Turkey.

For this we do the analysis for the following data table D values:

If we carefully observe the calculated values, there is obvious discrepancy in the tourism

elasticity values against the rest. Tourism elasticity values are more sensitive to the

percentage change in the exchange rates except for the year 2014.

Table D

Elasticity of
Years Elasticity of agricultural demand Elasticity of industrial demand
Tourism
2014 -0.242 0.327 0.74
2015 -0.148 -0.33 0.17
2016 -0.943 0.127 -0.417
2017 -0.143 0.095 0.6
Source: Student calculations and Turkey: Travel & Tourism's Total GDP Contribution 2012-

2028 | Statistic

13
As can be seen in the table above D, the elasticity values are more in case of tourism

earnings as compared to Agricultural contributions to national Income as well as Industrial

contributions. Tourism earnings are increasing shown by the positive values except for the

year 2016 which is due to then reason of military coup attempt. Whereas agriculture sector

is showing the drop in the earnings as shown by the negative signs also the industrial

sector which show negative sign for the year 2015 whereas the magnitude of the positive

values are less accept for the year 2016 as against the Tourism sector.

Overall it suggests that the Tourism is showing more response against the rest of the

sectors of the economy for the depreciation of the currency.

Now finally comparing the performance of Tourism with imports of Turkey as against the

percentage change in the exchange rate to arrive for the final conclusion

Table E
Tourism Elasticity for Exchange Import elasticity of exchange
Years
rate rate
2014 0.74 -0.209
2015 0.17 -0.559
2016 -0.417 -0.379
2017 0.6 0.798
Source: Student Calculations and Yearly Average Currency Exchange Rates

Developing economies welcome the depreciation of the currency to correct the trade

balance provided they make use of the opportunity by designing appropriate short run

policies. Since deprecation of a currency makes imports more expensive and the exports of

the locally produced products become more attractive as they are cheaper than before the

depreciation of currency occurs. Although imports have two kinds of goods, luxury items

and the intermediary goods or the raw materials, intermediary goods are needed as inputs

for producing the final good in the industry. Now this depreciation will make the luxury

goods more expensive which will lead to drop of demand of those goods, while the input

14
goods although become expensive, but they will force the earnings to increase not only to

domestic producers for local sales but the exporters as well.

In the table E it is obvious that tourism earnings are increasing for I% depreciation in the

currency (shown by the positive sign) whereas the Imports expenditures are dropping for

the same percentage change depreciation in the currency (shown by the negative sign).

Since this measure of sensitivity is for year on year. Now if we look into the average

measure of sensitivity by adding the values for all the years and dividing by the number of

years, we get average measure of sensitivity for tourism earnings 0.2733 Whereas the

same measure sensitivity for the imports expenditures is -0.4683.

This means that for 1% depreciation in Turkish Lira, tourism earnings increase by 0.2733%

whereas the import bills decrease by 0.4683% which in simple words to say is that the

addition to income together with the drop-in expenditure which is established as above will

correct the Balance of Trade for Turkey.

15
Contribution to Employment level

Unemployment is when a person is considered in the labor force and is actively looking for

job but cannot find one. With reference to tables down below, the data of table F was

calculated.

Tourist Jobs Labor force

2013 2,000,000 2013 27,800,800
2014 2,120,000 2014 28,630,000
2015 2,000,900 2015 29,710,000
2016 1,980,000 2016 30,750,000
2017 2,000,900
Source: 2017 31,280,000 Turkey

Unemployment Rate

Table F

Employment of turkey
Tourism
% Increase in % increase in % increase in percentage of
Date Revenues
Labor force unemployment Tourism Jobs tourism jobs
(Billion$)
2013 _ _ _ 7.19% 145.81
2014 0.03% 0.13% 0.06% 7.40% 141.47
2015 0.04% 0.36% -0.06% 6.73% 118.38
2016 0.35% 0.06% -0.01% 6.43% 101.68
2017 0.02% 0.04% 0.11% 6.39% 94.64
Source: Turkey Unemployment Rate and Students calculations

In 2014 the Turkish labor force has increased by 0.03%, this led to increase of

unemployment by 0.131%, however the Jobs in the tourism industry has increased by

0.06% which is more than the increase in the labor force.

In 2015 there was an increase in the labor force and the unemployment rate increased

more than the previous numbers in 2014 followed by the decrease in jobs in tourism

industry which explains why the unemployment has further increased. Had this drop in
16
employment level been not till that magnitude there would have been less unemployment

level overall.

The year 2016 has shown an increase in labor force together with an increase the

unemployment which was even more than the previous year and one of the reasons behind

this increase is the drop in Tourism jobs as can be seen in the table values above.

While in 2017 the increase in the labor force and the increase in the unemployment but it

was lower than the previous year due to the increase in the tourism jobs.

The above findings show the importance of the tourism industry in the context of the

employment level and the potential earnings.

Tourism Revenue (Billion Imports (Billion % change in Exports (Billion % change in

Years
USD) USD) imports USD) exports
2013 154.81 266.285 7.23% 209.986 2.18%
2014 141.47 257.789 -3.19% 220.871 5.18%
2015 118.38 222.91 -13.53% 199.01 -9.90%
2016 101.68 213.595 -4.18% 187.966 -5.55%
2017 94.64 249.167 16.65% 210.162 11.81%
Table G

Source: Student calculations and Turkey - Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2022

The data reveals the correlation between the imports and the exports earnings for Turkey

that is when exports increases the imports increases as well. This means that the final

products need the imported material for the production to sell in the local and the foreign

markets. This greater dependence on the foreign imported material will cause widening of

the trade deficit. Although I was able to dig out the potential impact of the tourism industry in

improving the balance of trade deficit to some extent but due to limited data access, I was

not able to dive deeper into the services sector branches and understand what is the main

element that pushes the services sector to have the highest percentage of share to the

gross domestic product. Moreover, using different data sources due to the limited

17
availability of the data may result in discrepancies in the calculations and also the strength

of the analysis.

The diagram below explains the cyclical unemployment as it is due to the fall in aggregate

demand.

In figure 1.1 we can observe the drop in the aggregate demand which in our case would be

the demand for tourism in turkey which forces the full employment level to drop (Y FE) to (Y1).

In figure 1.2 the falling demand for tourism in Turkey due to the host of earlier mentioned

factors like political instability, security fears in Turkey caused the unemployment increase

specifically in tourism industry as the wage level is sticky, this means that the firms can’t

reduce the wages, so they let go of the excess labor. This is seen in the graph when the full

employment drops to (Q*) this drop is called cyclical unemployment.

18
Conclusion

The tourism industry being a segment of services sector is catching much of the importance

in 20th century. Turkish tourism industry plays an important role economy as it has a high

contribution to it. As Turkey is naturally gifted with the landscape, the beaches, the weather

and the rich historical heritage which are all the source of tourists attraction. Since the

services sector does not need much of the imported intermediary goods and hence is a

good measure to boost the foreign earnings and correct the balance of trade of a country.

For Turkey tourism revenues are the second-biggest income of the Turkish economy under

the sub-accounts in the services sector, which is the highest sector contributing to the

Turkish GDP. The tourism industry incomes have constantly dropped since 2013 as its

contributions to the GDP decreased, and this shows the how it has been overlooked.

The research conducted proved that the tourism industry is a critical element in the

improvement of the trade balance deficit. The data collected, containing tourism incomes for

the period of 2013 to 2017, were observed to understand the essential impact of tourism

incomes on the balance of trade in Turkey.

The calculation concluded that the falling exchange rate of Turkish Lira against US$

showed no considerable impact on the growth of Agriculture incomes and the industrial

incomes for Turkey instead Tourism industry showed much response despite the odds

against it.

As this has been revealed by the import elasticity with a negative sign showing a drop in the

magnitude of the imported expenditures against 1% depreciation of the Turkish lira,

19
whereas the same percentage change in the value of the Turkish lira leading to the

increase in the tourism earnings. After the military coup in 2016, the tourism has dropped as

we calculated and found a negative value for the elasticity of tourism. If the country was

politically stable and the coup didn’t happen the elasticity would have been positive, and the

average calculations would have been higher, and it would have shown more sensitivity

which shows the importance of tourism in Turkey. The Turkish government has over looked

the tourism industry which could help them in improving the balance of trade by improving

the tourism as it has fallen in the contribution of the Turkish GDP, as tourism counts as

exports to the host country and the increase of tourists will lead to an increase in exports

which will help in the improvement of the balance of trade. The Turkish government needs

to promote to the world that it is a safe and politically stable country as in 2015 and 2016

had very unstable political issues from terrorist attacks to failed military coup. Another thing

the government should do is start advertising the tourism in Turkey and highlight the best

parts of Turkey to attract new tourists. Moreover, they can also push the Turkish citizens to

visit other cities in Turkey instead of leaving to other countries for vacation.

20
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